When Peter Lynch turns 10, his father dies from cancer.
當彼得·林奇10歲時，他的父親因癌症去世。
00:14
It was a real tragedy because at the time Lynch's father made a lot of money as an accountant that provided a very good lifestyle.
這是一個真正的悲劇，因為當時林奇的父親作為一名會計師賺了很多錢，為家庭提供了很好的生活方式。
00:23
Lynch's mother didn't have to work.
林奇的母親不需要工作。
00:25
But now she has to go back to the workforce.
但現在她必須重返職場。
00:28
She took on two jobs at once, and in order to support his mother, the young Peter Lynch had to grow up quickly and to start working as well.
她同時兼任兩份工作，為了支持母親，年輕的彼得·林奇不得不迅速成長並開始工作。
00:45
Peter Lynch is near the top of anyone's list of great investors.
彼得·林奇在任何人的偉大投資者名單中都名列前茅。
00:49
He consistently trounced the market for over a decade by observing bad ideas in the world already, then researching them and then buying them if they could stand the test of time.
In the 13 years he ran the Fidelity Magellan Fund, he racked up annual average returns of 29.2%.
在他管理忠利麥哲倫基金的13年裡，他取得了年均回報率29.2%的成績。
01:23
With his father gone, Peter Lynch's mother is determined to make enough money in order for Lynch to stay in private school.
由於父親的離世，彼得·林奇的母親決心賺足夠的錢，讓林奇能繼續在私立學校就讀。
01:32
She knows that is the best way to guarantee her son's future.
她知道這是保證兒子未來的最佳方式。
01:40
But to make it easier for her, the 11-year-old Lynch is desperate to find a job of his own.
但為了讓母親更輕鬆，11歲的林奇急於找到一份自己的工作。
01:47
He never expected to work at 11 years old; he wanted to have a normal childhood.
他從未想過在11歲時工作；他希望擁有一個正常的童年。
01:53
But Lynch was a very understanding boy, seeing how hard his mother worked to provide for him, he made up his mind from an early age that he was going to make so much money when he grew up that his mother would never have to work again.
But the type of jobs for an 11-year-old is limited; he ends up becoming a caddy at a local golf club.
但11歲孩子能做的工作種類有限；他最終成為了當地一家高爾夫俱樂部的球童。
02:16
His first job as a caddy allows Lynch to appreciate hard work and learn social skills.
他第一份球童的工作讓林奇學會了珍惜辛勤工作並學習社交技巧。
02:24
But more importantly, it is there he meets his mentor, who will completely change his life forever.
但更重要的是，他在那裡遇到了他的導師，這位導師將徹底改變他的一生。
02:37
To help support his mother, Peter Lynch becomes the hardest working caddy on the golf course.
為了幫助支持母親，彼得·林奇成為了高爾夫球場上最勤奮的球童。
02:42
There, he meets the executive vice president of Fidelity, George Sullivan.
在那裡，他遇到了忠利公司的執行副總裁喬治·沙利文。
02:49
Peter Lynch stood out from the crowd because of his work ethic.
彼得·林奇因為他的職業道德而在人群中脫穎而出。
02:54
But what really left an impression on George Sullivan was that one time, Sullivan misplaced his umbrella.
但真正給喬治·沙利文留下深刻印象的是，有一次，沙利文遺失了他的雨傘。
03:00
And Lynch used his own money, as little as it was, to buy a new umbrella to give it to Sullivan.
而林奇用他自己的錢，儘管不多，買了一把新雨傘送給沙利文。
03:08
And that act of kindness by Peter Lynch really left an impression on Sullivan.
彼得·林奇的這個善舉真的給沙利文留下了深刻的印象。
03:14
Peter Lynch's excellent work on the golf course pays off.
彼得·林奇在高爾夫球場上的優異表現得到了回報。
03:17
And with Sullivan's recommendation, Lynch gets accepted to Boston College and receives a full scholarship from a caddy scholarship fund.
在沙利文的推薦下，林奇被波士頓學院錄取，並獲得了一個球童獎學金基金的全額獎學金。
03:31
In college, Peter Lynch finds out that he has a helpful subject to learn about stocks— it's not economics or mathematics, but philosophy, especially logic.
在大學裡，彼得·林奇發現了一個有助於學習股票的科目——不是經濟學或數學，而是哲學，尤其是邏輯學。
03:43
I was on the liberal arts side of Boston College, avoiding all the required math and accounting courses, the normal preparations for business.
我在波士頓學院的文科專業，避開了所有必修的數學和會計課程，這些是商業的正常準備。
03:50
Instead, I studied metaphysics, logic, philosophy, along with history, psychology, and political science.
相反，我學習了形而上學、邏輯學、哲學，以及歷史、心理學和政治學。
03:58
They're called humanities because they're all about people.
它們被稱為人文科學，因為它們都是關於人的。
04:01
And finance, to Peter Lynch, is all about people.
而金融，對彼得·林奇來說，完全是關於人的。
04:06
At Boston College, Lynch scores perfectly on tests.
在波士頓學院，林奇的考試成績完美。
04:10
But he knows the true way to examine his knowledge is not by passing his exams, but by investing in the real world.
但他知道，檢驗自己知識的真正方式不是通過考試，而是通過在現實世界中的投資。
04:24
Founded in 1945, Flying Tigers was the first cargo airline in the United States.
飛虎航空成立於1945年，是美國第一家貨運航空公司。
04:31
In 1961, it became one of the first carriers in the world to offer aerial pallet shipping service.
1961年，它成為世界上最早提供空中托盤運輸服務的航空公司之一。
04:38
Before then, aerial commercial shipping was expensive and nearly non-existent for larger goods.
在此之前，空中商業運輸昂貴且幾乎不存在大件貨物運輸。
04:45
Flying Tigers would be considered a world stock because it was a new and small company.
飛虎航空會被認為是一支世界股票，因為它是一家新興且規模較小的公司。
04:52
But Lynch saw that the whole aerial shipping industry was going to explode, and Flying Tigers was going to be the leader of it.
但林奇看到整個空中運輸行業即將爆發，而飛虎航空將成為這個行業的領導者。
05:01
With strong conviction, Peter Lynch put the majority of his savings in Flying Tigers stock.
擁有堅定的信念，彼得·林奇將他大部分的積蓄投資於飛虎航空的股票。
05:07
But for the next three years, the stock becomes stagnated.
但在接下來的三年裡，這支股票變得停滯不前。
05:10
It never goes beyond the original price of $7.
它從未超過原始價格7美元。
05:14
Lynch bought it at.
林奇以這個價格買入。
05:16
If Peter Lynch learns anything from his career on the golf course, it is that it takes patience to win.
如果彼得·林奇從他在高爾夫球場的職業生涯中學到了什麼，那就是要想贏，需要耐心。
05:24
But Lynch has no idea what is about to happen.
但林奇不知道即將發生什麼。
05:38
The United States is therefore prepared to take all necessary steps, including the use of armed forces, to assist any member of the Southeast Asia Collective Treaty in defense
因此，美國準備採取一切必要措施，包括使用武裝部隊，協助東南亞集體條約的任何成員國保衛自由。
05:55
of freedom.
（無對應文字）
05:57
The Vietnam War unexpectedly becomes the best thing that's ever happened to Flying Tigers.
越南戰爭意外地成為飛虎航空有史以來最好的事情。
06:04
Initially, Lynch thought that Flying Tigers' business would grow as a result of dipping into the commercial shipping business.
最初，林奇認為飛虎航空的業務會因涉足商業航運業務而增長。
06:13
But the Vietnam War happened so unexpectedly, and it sent the stock price to the sky.
但越南戰爭意外爆發，股價一飛沖天。
06:19
By 1965, Peter Lynch's original $1,250 investment becomes more than $6,000, more than enough to pay for his grad school at Wharton.
While pursuing his MBA, Lynch continues to disregard economics and finance classes that are out of touch with reality.
在攻讀MBA期間，林奇繼續無視那些與現實脫節的經濟和金融課程。
06:44
He devotes all of his free time researching the next stock to buy.
他把所有的空閒時間都用來研究下一支要買的股票。
06:50
And after graduation from Wharton, he's eager to get into the real world, but fate intervenes.
從沃頓商學院畢業後，他渴望進入現實世界，但命運介入了。
07:06
By the time Peter Lynch graduates from Wharton, the Vietnam War has reached a critical stage.
當彼得·林奇從沃頓商學院畢業時，越南戰爭已經達到關鍵階段。
07:13
It turns from a special military operation to a full-blown invasion.
它從一場特殊的軍事行動轉變為全面入侵。
07:18
The U.S. now needs to recruit more soldiers to send to the battlefield.
美國現在需要招募更多士兵送往戰場。
07:23
Peter Lynch is one of them.
彼得·林奇是其中之一。
07:27
But fortunately for Lynch, he's stationed far from the battleground, all the way in South Korea.
但對林奇來說，幸運的是，他被派駐在遠離戰場的地方，一直到韓國。
07:34
And he spends a large part of his time researching his next investment idea.
他把大部分時間都用來研究下一個投資想法。
07:40
It wouldn't be easy, as he is far away from any companies in the U.S.
這並不容易，因為他遠離美國的任何公司。
07:45
But he believes he could replicate his success with Flying Tigers.
但他相信自己可以重現飛虎航空的成功。
07:48
He just needs to find another small growth company that no one on Wall Street knows about.
他只需要找到另一家華爾街無人知曉的小型成長公司。
07:55
A ten-bagger is a stock which you've made ten times your money.
十倍股是指你賺到十倍投資金額的股票。
08:01
I suspect this technical term has been borrowed from baseball, which goes up to a four-bagger or a home run.
我懷疑這個專業術語是從棒球借用來的，棒球最多有四壘打或全壘打。
08:07
In my business, a four-bagger is nice, but a ten-bagger is a whole lot better.
在我的行業中，四倍股不錯，但十倍股更好。
08:12
And, with persistent effort, Peter Lynch finds a perfect stock to buy.
透過持續努力，彼得·林奇找到了一支完美的股票來購買。
08:22
Sugar beets and sugar canes are the main plants used to produce sugar.
甜菜和甘蔗是生產糖的主要植物。
08:28
But unlike sugar canes, sugar beets can grow better in a cooler environment, such as the state of Maine.
但與甘蔗不同，甜菜在較涼爽的環境中生長得更好，例如緬因州。
08:35
The Maine Sugar Industry is a refiner of sugar beets.
緬因州糖業是一家甜菜精煉公司。
08:39
In 1965, the company finds a genius solution for increasing production.
1965年，該公司找到了一個天才的解決方案來提高產量。
08:44
It realizes that, since there's very little overlap between the harvest time of potatoes and sugar beets, it will be profitable to convince the potato farmers to grow sugar beets as well.
它意識到，由於馬鈴薯和甜菜的收穫時間幾乎沒有重疊，說服馬鈴薯農民也種植甜菜將是有利可圖的。
08:57
Lynch understands clearly that this is a ten-bagger situation, mostly because noteworthy firms have yet to take notice.
林奇清楚地理解這是一個十倍股的情況，主要是因為值得注意的公司尚未注意到。
09:04
He immediately buys as many shares as he can by calling his brokers from South Korea, expecting to have a windfall once he goes back to America.
他立即致電韓國的經紀人，盡可能多地購買股票，期望回到美國後能獲得一筆橫財。
09:19
Farmers, in general, tend to be very risk-averse, and the Maine Sugar Company couldn't convince the farmers to plant sugar beets at full capacity.
農民通常非常規避風險，緬因州糖業公司無法說服農民全力種植甜菜。
09:28
Instead, most of them only use less than one-quarter of their farms.
相反，他們大多數只使用不到四分之一的農場。
09:38
After coming home from Korea, Lynch vows to never make the same mistake in the future.
從韓國回來後，林奇發誓今後再也不犯同樣的錯誤。
09:44
He will never buy stock again without research, and more importantly, on-site investigation.
他再也不會在沒有研究，更重要的是，沒有實地調查的情況下購買股票。
09:51
If you're working hard, you're always checking with competitors, you're checking with customers, suppliers.
如果你努力工作，你總是會與競爭對手、客戶、供應商核對。
09:55
You're trying to find out, is this company still early?
你試圖找出，這家公司是否仍處於早期階段？
09:59
Does it have years and years of growth ahead of it?
它是否有多年的成長空間？
10:01
Then you stay with it, you know, even if the stock goes down.
然後你堅持下去，你知道，即使股票下跌。
10:03
But in the meantime, he needs to make a living.
但與此同時，他需要謀生。
10:06
In 1969, through his connection with George Sullivan, he becomes a research analyst at Fidelity, then the largest asset management company in America.
1969年，透過與喬治·蘇利文的關係，他成為富達的研究分析師，當時富達是美國最大的資產管理公司。
10:24
But in the 1930s, mutual funds were mostly small family operations, consisting of firms made up of wealthy people.
但在1930年代，共同基金多為小型家族企業，由富裕人士組成。
10:33
The only way to grow was through performance and word of mouth.
成長的唯一方式是透過業績和口碑。
10:37
But one Boston businessman, Edward Johnson, thinks there's a better way.
但波士頓商人愛德華·強森認為有更好的方法。
10:43
Ed Johnson was a great salesman, so he thought to himself, why not treat mutual funds like a product?
愛德·強森是位出色的銷售員，於是他想，為何不將共同基金視為產品？
10:50
So he was one of the first to hire professional salespeople, who barely knew anything about finance, to distribute their mutual fund to the public.
因此，他成為最早僱用專業銷售人員的人之一，這些銷售人員幾乎不懂金融，但負責將共同基金推廣給大眾。
10:59
On top of that, Ed Johnson shifts the focus of the mutual funds from speculative gambles to a safe place for people to earn stable returns, by using the new concept at the time called diversification.
By 1962, Fidelity becomes the biggest mutual fund company in America.
到1962年，富達成為美國最大的共同基金公司。
11:23
But with success comes competition.
但成功帶來競爭。
11:27
So what happened from the 40s to the 60s was that a lot of mutual funds became overly obsessed with raising money, rather than focusing on making returns for their investors.
從40年代到60年代，許多共同基金過於專注於籌集資金，而非專注於為投資者創造回報。
11:38
So a lot of these funds spent so much money on salespeople and brokers, rather than on investment research.
因此，許多基金將大量資金花在銷售人員和經紀人身上，而非投資研究。
11:47
To beat the competition, Ed Johnson starts deploying a diverse set of strategies, including a fund focused on technical analysis, run by pioneer Jared Ty.
為了擊敗競爭對手，愛德·強森開始採用多種策略，包括由先驅傑瑞德·泰管理的技術分析基金。
11:59
With his unique way of analyzing charts and patterns, Jared Ty's fund outperforms the competition by a wide margin.
傑瑞德·泰透過獨特的圖表和模式分析方式，其基金的表現大幅超越競爭對手。
12:07
He becomes a star in the mutual fund industry.
他成為共同基金行業的明星。
12:10
His success takes Fidelity to a new height.
他的成功將富達推向新的高度。
12:13
At the time, technical analysis was relatively new.
當時，技術分析相對較新。
12:17
Ty was using mathematics to spot short-term patterns that other people hadn't quite caught on yet, and that's why it worked for him.
泰使用數學來發現其他人尚未注意到的短期模式，這就是為何它對他有效。
12:27
By the late 1960s, the bull market is slowing, but with Jared Ty's performance, Fidelity is thriving.
到1960年代末，牛市正在放緩，但憑藉傑瑞德·泰的表現，富達仍然蓬勃發展。
12:35
As Ed Johnson gets close to his retirement age, Jared Ty becomes an apparent successor.
隨著愛德·強森接近退休年齡，傑瑞德·泰成為明顯的接班人。
12:42
But surprisingly, Ed Johnson decides that Fidelity is always going to be a family business, and his son, Ned Johnson, becomes the new boss at Fidelity.
但出人意料的是，愛德·強森決定富達將永遠是家族企業，他的兒子內德·強森成為富達的新老闆。
12:57
After its height, Fidelity loses a great number of clients.
在巔峰之後，富達失去了大量客戶。
13:02
In the investing world, clients' loyalty always lies where the profit is.
在投資界，客戶的忠誠度總是追隨利潤所在。
13:08
In this case, they follow where Jared Ty goes.
這次，他們跟隨賈德·泰的腳步。
13:11
Worse yet, by 1969, Fidelity is found guilty of its involvement in an insider trading scandal, when their broker conspired with a client to commit fraud.
更糟的是，到1969年，富達被發現涉嫌內線交易醜聞，當時他們的經紀人與客戶勾結進行詐騙。
13:24
With profits down and a lot of clients leaving, Ed Johnson struggles to find a solution.
利潤下滑且大量客戶流失，艾德·強森努力尋找解決方案。
13:29
He understands that to turn Fidelity around, he needs to find someone just as talented as Ty.
他明白，要扭轉富達的局勢，他需要找到一個和泰一樣優秀的人才。
13:36
And it turns out the solution has been standing right in front of him this entire time.
而事實證明，解決方案一直就在他的眼前。
13:49
America is at a turning point.
美國正處於轉折點。
13:52
After the Great Depression and World War II, it became the most powerful nation on the planet.
經歷了大蕭條和第二次世界大戰後，它成為了地球上最強大的國家。
13:58
It's a testimony to the efficacy and the resilience of the capitalist economic system.
這證明了資本主義經濟體系的效力和韌性。
14:04
But where there's a free market, there's always a cycle of boom and bust.
但在自由市場中，總是存在著繁榮與蕭條的循環。
14:10
By the early 1970s, the economic recession has arrived.
到20世紀70年代初，經濟衰退已經到來。
14:17
Peter Lynch had a rough childhood, but through hard work and engineering, he graduated from the top business school in the U.S.
彼得·林奇有著艱難的童年，但通過努力和工程學，他從美國頂尖商學院畢業。
14:25
And by learning stock picking from hands-on experience, Lynch excels at Fidelity as a research analyst.
通過實踐經驗學習選股，林奇在富達擔任研究分析師時表現出色。
14:32
While the stock market collapses, Peter Lynch's stock recommendations thrive.
在股市崩盤之際，彼得·林奇的股票推薦卻蓬勃發展。
14:38
However, after the exit of stock trader Jared Ty, Fidelity is struggling to grow.
然而，在股票交易員賈德·泰離開後，富達的發展舉步維艱。
14:44
It lost one-third of its assets in one year alone.
富達在一年內就損失了三分之一的資產。
14:49
The new CEO, Ned Johnson, aimed to find a brilliant trader just like Jared Ty.
新任CEO奈德·強森的目標是找到一位像賈德·泰一樣出色的交易員。
14:54
But little does he know, the man who will eventually take Fidelity to the moon is anything but like Jared Ty.
但他不知道的是，最終將帶領富達飛黃騰達的人，與賈德·泰截然不同。
15:09
The Magellan Fund was initially set up by Ned Johnson and George Sullivan as a bootcamp to train future fund managers for Fidelity.
麥哲倫基金最初由奈德·強森和喬治·沙利文設立，作為培訓富達未來基金經理的訓練營。
15:19
Lynch started in 1969 as a steel and metals analyst.
林奇於1969年開始擔任鋼鐵和金屬分析師。
15:24
Lynch was a research analyst, but on the side, he was building his own little stock portfolio that consistently beat the market.
林奇是一名研究分析師，但私底下，他一直在建立自己的小型股票投資組合，並持續擊敗市場。
15:32
So all the employees at Fidelity always came to him for stock tips.
因此，富達投資的所有員工總是向他尋求股票建議。
15:37
By 1974, he becomes a parent to Ned Johnson.
到1974年，他成為奈德·強森的得力助手。
15:41
Peter Lynch is the kind of talent he's been searching for.
彼得·林奇正是他一直在尋找的那種人才。
15:44
He promotes Lynch as the new head of the Magellan Fund, which at the time was a closed fund, consisting mostly of the wealth of the Johnson family and their executives.
他提拔林奇為麥哲倫基金的新負責人，當時該基金是一個封閉式基金，主要由強森家族及其高管的財富組成。
15:54
As the new boss of the Magellan Fund, Lynch knows to outperform the market, he must do things the rest of the market doesn't do.
作為麥哲倫基金的新領導，林奇知道要超越市場，他必須做市場上其他人不做的事情。
16:05
As the bear market rages on, most mutual funds shift away from stock investing.
隨著熊市持續肆虐，大多數共同基金都轉向避開股票投資。
16:10
But to Lynch, a bear market only means one thing: bargains.
但對林奇來說，熊市只意味著一件事：便宜貨。
16:16
There were bargains everywhere in those days.
那些日子裡，到處都是便宜貨。
16:19
My portfolio continued to grow.
我的投資組合繼續增長。
16:21
Pretty soon, I became known as the Will Rogers of Equities, a man who never saw a stock he didn't like.
很快，我就被稱為股票界的威爾·羅傑斯，一個從未見過他不喜歡的股票的人。
16:28
As a savvy poker player, Lynch believes that with a portfolio full of potential ten-baggers, the law of probability will inevitably be on his side.
作為一名精明的撲克玩家，林奇認為，擁有一個充滿潛在十倍股的投資組合，概率法則必然會站在他這邊。
16:40
If I find 10 good stories, they're all equally attractive.
如果我發現10個好的投資故事，它們都同樣具有吸引力。
16:43
I buy all 10, and I wait to see them unfold.
我買下所有10個，然後等待它們的發展。
16:45
It's like watching 10 poker games.
這就像觀看10場撲克遊戲。
16:47
Ten games are stud poker.
10場遊戲都是撲克。
16:49
You watch your cards turn over; story 3 gets better, story 6 slips, story 7 stays the same, but it goes up 50%, so you sell 7 and buy 2.
And his first ten-bagger is a very unlikely company.
而他的第一個十倍股是一家非常不可能的公司。
17:06
Taco Bell was founded by a white man called Glen Bell, who was addicted to the hard-shelled tacos at his local Mexican restaurant.
塔可鐘由一位名叫格倫·貝爾的白人創立，他對當地墨西哥餐廳的硬殼塔可餅上癮。
17:16
Bell learned their recipe and opened up his own stand in 1951.
貝爾學會了他們的食譜，並在1951年開設了自己的攤位。
17:21
Before long, he made enough money to open a physical restaurant.
不久之後，他賺到了足夠的錢來開一家實體餐廳。
17:25
Then, two years later, a chain of Taco Bell restaurants started popping up in California.
然後，兩年後，加州開始出現一連鎖的Taco Bell餐廳。
17:32
On a trip to California, I was impressed with the Taco Bell burrito.
在一次加州之旅中，我對Taco Bell的布里托印象深刻。
17:36
They had no debt, they never had a restaurant close, and I started buying it, and it was the largest position in Magellan in 1978.
他們沒有債務，從未有過餐廳關閉，我開始購買它的股票，並在1978年成為麥哲倫基金中最大的持股。
17:46
Taco Bell may have been a treasure, but Peter Lynch is not the only one who found it.
Taco Bell可能是一個寶藏，但彼得·林奇並不是唯一一個發現它的人。
17:51
In just less than a year since Peter Lynch invested in Taco Bell, the company was acquired by PepsiCo at $50 a share.
在彼得·林奇投資Taco Bell不到一年的時間裡，該公司以每股50美元的價格被百事公司收購。
18:08
Having the influx of reliable information was key for Lynch to gain an edge with the Magellan fund.
拥有可靠信息的湧入是林奇在麥哲倫基金中獲得優勢的關鍵。
18:15
We used to wait for the mail to come to see what Nike's inventories were like.
我們過去常常等待郵件來了解耐克的庫存情況。
18:22
So all this information, so investing for the average person now is much clearer.
因此，所有這些信息使得普通人的投資現在變得更加清晰。
18:28
They know the same thing as I do.
他們知道的和我一樣多。
18:30
I want to thank the Daily Upside for sponsoring this video.
我要感謝Daily Upside贊助這個視頻。
18:33
It's a free business and investing newsletter that over 400,000 people subscribe to, including myself.
這是一份免費的商業和投資新聞通訊，超過40萬人訂閱，包括我自己。
18:39
In an age where modern business news prioritizes continuous headlines and It was originally founded by a team of scholars, journalists, and investment bankers,
在現代商業新聞優先考慮連續頭條的時代，它最初是由一群學者、記者和投資銀行家創立的，
18:55
with a sole purpose of making you a more well-rounded investor.
唯一目的是讓你成為一個更全面的投資者。
18:59
Every weekday they deliver a morning brief, followed by more detailed stories that are shaping the business world. It contains the breakdowns of current economic and corporate events in a clear and unbiased way. I'm a big believer in creating impactful content. And as a reader of the Daily
Upside, I think they're doing exactly that. I sometimes find interesting ideas and stocks that weren't involved on my radar before. Then I will explore further on my own and often let to a stock trade or more insights. And I hope it will help you do the same.
點擊描述中的鏈接，加入我每天早上閱讀Daily Upside。
19:34
Click the link in the description and join me to rate the Daily Upside every morning.
如果你不喜歡，你可以隨時取消訂閱新聞通訊。
19:39
And if you don't like it, you can always unsubscribe the newsletter.
到1978年，猖獗的通貨膨脹已經讓聯邦儲備幾乎沒有選擇。
19:47
By 1978, the raging inflation has left Federal Reserve very little options.
到1978年，失控的通膨已讓聯邦準備理事會幾乎無計可施。
19:54
The Dow Jones falls 18% by 1977.
到1977年，道瓊指數下跌了18%。
20:00
It's a same year Peter Lynch becomes one of the youngest money managers on Wall Street.
同一年，彼得·林奇成為華爾街最年輕的基金經理之一。
20:05
While the rest of the market is down sharply, Lynch's fund has generated a 20% profit.
當市場其他部分大幅下跌時，林奇的基金卻獲得了20%的利潤。
20:14
To Peter Lynch, stop picking is like an R-form or a sport. The way he practiced this R-form is by immersing himself in the business that he's going to buy.
對彼得·林奇來說，選股就像一種藝術形式或運動。他練習這種藝術的方式是深入了解他要投資的企業。
20:25
My stock picking method, which involves elements of art and science plus legwork, hasn't changed in 20 years. Professional investors are missing the point.
我的選股方法，結合了藝術和科學的元素，再加上實地考察，在20年來沒有改變。專業投資者們錯過了重點。
20:35
A pile of software isn't worth a damn if you haven't done your basic homework on the companies.
如果你沒有對公司做基本的功課，一堆軟體根本一文不值。
20:40
They're scrambling to buy services like Bridge, Shark, Bloomberg, First Call, MarketWatch when they ought to be spending more time at the mall.
And philosophy is called empiricism, which prioritizes learning from direct experiences over anything else.
這種哲學稱為經驗主義，優先從直接經驗中學習，超過其他任何方式。
20:58
Peter Lynch forms his investment thesis by immersing himself in the business, rather than by just reading the numbers on paper.
彼得·林奇通過深入了解企業來形成他的投資理論，而不僅僅是閱讀紙上的數字。
21:07
It's essentially a human-driven approach, meaning that if Lynch lacks the product, and other people love the product, and the management are good people, these serve as a better evidence than just figures on papers.
Lynch becomes unstoppable. A year later, while the market has bounced back to 18%, Lynch's Magellan Fund has done even better, creating a 51% return in 1979.
As one of Reagan becomes a president, the age of prosperity has returned.
隨著雷根成為總統，繁榮時代回歸。
21:49
The bull market propels Peter Lynch Magellan to start him, as it consistently makes mind-boggling profits.
牛市推動彼得·林奇的麥哲倫基金起飛，因為它持續創造驚人的利潤。
21:57
Although Lynch doesn't always pick the right stocks, he knows if he gets three out of five stocks right. In the long run, he will do just fine.
雖然林奇並不總是選對股票，但他知道如果他五支股票中選對三支，從長遠來看，他會做得很好。
22:07
But even with that assurance, one stock investment still catches him off guard.
但即使有這種保證，一支股票投資仍然讓他措手不及。
22:17
Founded in 1983, Jake Beltner was an instant success.
成立於1983年的Jake Beltner立即取得成功。
22:23
He became a popular specialty food store due to his understanding of the local consumers in Boston.
由於他了解波士頓當地消費者，他成為一家受歡迎的專業食品店。
22:30
Builders is a specialty food store located across the street from my Boston office.
Builders是一家專業食品店，位於我的波士頓辦公室對面。
22:35
It sells gourmet sandwiches and prepared hot foods.
它銷售美食三明治和預製熱食。
22:39
Builders is a cross between a convenience store and a three-star restaurant.
Builders 是一家介於便利商店和三星級餐廳之間的店鋪。
22:43
I had first-hand information that they had the best bread and the best sandwiches in Boston.
我有第一手資訊，他們在波士頓擁有最好的麵包和三明治。
22:50
The store was perfect for middle-class white collars who had a little bit of disposable income and who won something better than just microwave sandwiches for lunch.
這家店非常適合有一些可支配收入的中產階級白領，他們希望午餐能吃到比微波三明治更好的東西。
23:02
When the company goes public in 1986, Lynch is the first in line to buy stocks at $13 a share.
當公司在 1986 年上市時，林奇是第一個以每股 13 美元價格購買股票的人。
23:10
Since he's become addicted to their sandwiches, Lynch is confident.
由於他已經對他們的三明治上癮，林奇充滿信心。
23:15
The soon the stores will pop up across America, and millions of middle-class Americans will enjoy their sandwiches as he does.
他相信這家店很快會在全美開花，數百萬中產階級美國人也會像他一樣享用他們的三明治。
23:31
What Peter Lynch didn't realize was that Beltner was successful because it was local.
彼得·林奇沒有意識到的是，Beltner 的成功是因為它是本地品牌。
23:38
It hasn't yet proven itself that it could succeed elsewhere.
它尚未證明自己能在其他地方取得成功。
23:42
And when Beltner opens a new store in Manhattan, it fails to compete with the infamous New York delis. By the time the company tries to open new locations in Atlanta, it has already grown out of cash. I'm sure the company learned from these mistakes, but there was no second chance once
the money ran out. I gradually unloaded my shares that losses ranging from 50 to 95 percent.
我逐漸出售了我的股份，損失在 50% 到 95% 之間。
24:07
The lesson here is if the prototype is in Texas, hold off buying until the company shows it can make money in Illinois. Does the idea work in some other place? That's the question I forgot to ask builders. After learning his lesson, Lynch continues to hunt for 10 baggers, companies whose products
By 1989, the Magellan has become the most popular mutual fund in America, with 17 billion dollars under management. Peter Lynch has been beating the market every year, making him the most celebrated
and to millions of Americans, Fidelity is Lynch, and Lynch is Fidelity. Lynch is no question an ethical, heart-working, intelligent person, and that was exactly the brand image that Johnson won
但在彼得·林奇職業生涯的巔峰時刻，他做了一件難以置信的事。
25:25
people to associate with Fidelity. But then at a peak of Peter Lynch's career, he does the unthinkable.
1991 年，在經歷了 11 年的卓越表現後，彼得·林奇辭職了。
25:43
In 1991, after 11 years of exceptional performance, Peter Lynch resigns.
For years, he was driven by the desire to provide for his mother and his family. He has pushed himself to work hard like no one else, even at expense of spending time with his children. Peter Lynch knows what it's like to not have his father around. Peter Lynch, manager of the nation's largest
and most profitable mutual stock fund for 13 years, left his job at Fidelity's Magellan Fund in 1990.
林奇年輕退休的決定受到他父親在 46 歲去世的影響，當時彼得只有 10 歲。
26:22
Lynch's decision to retire young was influenced by his father's death at 46, when Peter was only 10.
翻譯中...
26:29
At the age of 48, Lynch decides that no amount of money can bite back time with his family.
在48歲時，林奇決定沒有任何金錢能夠買回與家人相處的時間。
26:37
But there's one more reason why Lynch quit Fidelity.
但林奇離開富達還有另一個原因。
26:43
What many people don't know was that Magellan was a closed internal fund for the first five years of his history. It had less than $1 billion in 1980, which was considered small even at that time.
And when the fund is small, you have a wider range of companies to pick from.
當基金規模較小時，你有更廣泛的公司可以選擇。
27:02
And if you look at Magellan's historical performance, the best years were in the early years.
如果你看麥哲倫基金的歷史表現，最好的年份是在早期。
27:09
By early 1990s, as the size of the fund grows and as a celebrity, it becomes increasingly difficult to find 10 baggers. Lynch decides that while Magellan is still performing well, it is time to retire and cement his legendary status as the most profitable mutual fund manager
in history. But little does he know that even after retirement, a ghost from the past will come back and haunt him.
但他沒有想到，即使在退休後，過去的幽靈也會回來纏繞他。
27:49
By early 2000s, mutual funds and other ETFs have become the most powerful forces in corporate finance.
到2000年代初，共同基金和其他ETF已成為企業金融中最強大的力量。
27:58
As a massive trillion dollar investment company, Fidelity is often the biggest shareholder in many major corporations in America. So they literally have enough votes in their hands to change the fate of many U.S. companies. What happens now is that whether if you're
activist hedge funds or if you're an executive of a company, you need to be on good terms with guys like Larry Fink and the Johnson's family.
活躍的對沖基金還是公司的高管，你都需要與拉里·芬克和強森家族這樣的人保持良好的關係。
28:30
In 2008, the SEC charges Fidelity for receiving bribery from various companies amount to millions of dollars, including VIP tickets for Super Bowl, concerts, and even for strip clubs.
And Peter Lynch is charged with a $28,000 fine for receiving bribery tickets for Broadway shows and for golf tournaments.
而彼得·林奇被指控罰款28,000美元，因為他收受了百老匯秀和高爾夫錦標賽的賄賂門票。
29:08
But that setback doesn't affect Peter Lynch reputation as people trust that Lynch didn't break the law on purpose. In 2022, Peter Lynch is just as popular as ever.
