Ray Dalio is one of the most successful, influential people alive.
雷·達利歐是當今最成功、最具影響力的人之一。
00:07
He’s returned more to his investors than anyone else in his space, which would be amazing under any circumstance, but becomes even more dazzling when you consider the fact that he started out as just another middle-class kid from Long Island.
Throughout his career, he developed a unique view of how the world works.
在他的職業生涯中，他發展出了對世界運作方式的獨特見解。
00:23
He put his lessons out there for everyone to learn.
他將自己的經驗教訓分享出來，供所有人學習。
00:26
It’s one thing when you’re an economist in a college or university, it’s completely different when you have to bet your own money on your research.
在大學或學院當經濟學家是一回事，而當你必須用自己的錢來賭你的研究時，完全是另一回事。
00:34
I would choose to listen to Ray Dalio any time of the day because he has skin in the game.
我會選擇在任何時候聽雷·達利歐的話，因為他有實際的利害關係。
00:39
When Dalio talks, the world listens.
當達利歐發言時，全世界都會傾聽。
00:42
His advice and wisdom is eagerly sought on financial matters and economic matters by policymakers around the world.
他的建議和智慧在財經和經濟事務上受到全球政策制定者的熱切追捧。
00:54
In his pursuit of understanding how the economy works, he became one of the richest people in the world, worth $16.9 billion.
在追求理解經濟如何運作的過程中，他成為了世界上最富有的人之一，身價達到169億美元。
01:04
Ray Dalio has led a successful life and career.
雷·達利歐過著成功的生活和職業生涯。
01:07
After retiring from Bridgewater, he has been sharing his principles of success.
在從橋水基金退休後，他一直在分享他的成功原則。
01:12
Ray Dalio is someone who has a lot of dreams and ambitions, but he’s very realistic in terms of how to achieve his dreams.
雷·達利歐是一個有很多夢想和抱負的人，但在如何實現夢想方面，他非常現實。
01:18
With that mentality, Ray Dalio managed to build a consulting business and made his first million win all before the age of 30.
憑藉這種心態，雷·達利歐成功地建立了一家諮詢公司，並在30歲之前賺到了他的第一個百萬。
01:33
Born in New York, Dalio was a natural entrepreneur.
達利歐出生在紐約，是一位天生的企業家。
01:37
The world of finance fascinated him.
金融世界深深吸引著他。
01:39
I got hooked on the markets when I was 12.
我12歲時就迷上了市場。
01:42
Well, the first stock I bought, I bought because it was the only company I ever heard of that was selling for less than $5 a share.
我買的第一支股票，是因為這是我聽說過的唯一一家股價低於5美元的公司。
01:49
And it worked.
而且它奏效了。
01:50
And it worked because this company was about to go broke and somebody came along and acquired it, and decided that I would be involved in the markets and this game is anything but easy.
He taught himself how to sell short and by the time he was in high school, he had already created a stock portfolio worth several thousand dollars.
他自學如何做空，在高中時已經建立了一個價值數千美元的股票投資組合。
02:10
Dalio thrived in college.
大學期間，達利歐表現優異。
02:12
He did so well after graduating, he got accepted to Harvard Business School.
畢業後成績優秀，他被哈佛商學院錄取。
02:17
Although Dalio flourished in business school, he wanted to have more real world practice.
雖然達利歐在商學院表現出色，但他想獲得更多實際經驗。
02:22
In 1972, the summer between Dalio’s two years at business school, he became an intern at Merrill Lynch as a commodity trader.
1972年，達利歐在商學院兩年之間的暑假，他成為美林證券的商品交易實習生。
02:30
Commodities in the 1970s have very low margin requirements and were relatively obscure.
1970年代的商品交易保證金要求非常低，且相對冷門。
02:38
It’s kind of like cryptocurrencies today.
這有點像今天的加密貨幣。
02:41
There’s a lot of volatility and a lot of speculators in the space.
這個領域有很多波動和投機者。
02:45
The majority of the dollar in gold or other reserve assets, except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interest of the United States.
大部分的美元以黃金或其他儲備資產形式存在，除非數量和條件被認為有利於貨幣穩定和美國的最佳利益。
02:58
On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon announced the U.S. will stop using the gold standard to control inflation.
1971年8月15日，理查德·尼克松總統宣布美國將停止使用金本位制來控制通脹。
03:06
The breakdown of the monetary system in 1971 pushed commodity prices higher and created the first oil shock in 1973.
1971年貨幣體系的崩潰推高了商品價格，並在1973年引發了第一次石油危機。
03:17
To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, which brought the worst bear market since the Great Depression.
為了對抗通脹，聯邦儲備委員會收緊了貨幣政策，導致了自大蕭條以來最嚴重的熊市。
03:25
More than ever, Dalio wanted to take part in the commodity trading business.
達利歐比以往更想參與商品交易業務。
03:30
After graduating from Harvard, he got a job at Sherson Hayden Stone as a commodity trader.
從哈佛畢業後，他在Sherson Hayden Stone找到了一份商品交易員的工作。
03:36
At Sherson, Dalio was in charge of the hedging business, advising clients on how to hedge their business risks.
在Sherson，達利歐負責對沖業務，為客戶提供如何對沖業務風險的建議。
03:42
Hedging seemed to be hard to understand for people who don’t know anything about finance, but it’s actually a simple concept.
對沖對於不了解金融的人來說似乎難以理解，但其實是一個簡單的概念。
03:50
It’s just like buying an insurance contract.
這就像購買一份保險合約。
03:53
In commodities, you can buy a contract that says you can’t buy, say, soybeans for $10 per unit in three months from now.
在商品交易中，你可以購買一份合約，規定你可以在三個月後以每單位10美元的價格購買大豆。
04:02
This will give you peace of mind because you don’t have to worry about the fluctuations of soybean prices with this contract.
這份合約會讓你安心，因為你不必擔心大豆價格的波動。
04:08
But Dalio’s career was short-lived.
但達利歐的職業生涯卻是短暫的。
04:11
He was fired after having a drunken argument with his boss on New Year’s Eve in 1974.
他在1974年新年夜與老闆發生醉酒爭執後被解僱。
04:17
It didn’t last long at Sherson, and that’s how I started the firm.
在Sherson的工作並沒有持續太久，於是我開始創辦這家公司。
04:22
In 1974, Dalio started his company in his two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan on New Year’s Day.
1974年新年當天，達利歐在曼哈頓的兩居室公寓裡創辦了他的公司。
04:28
He called it Bridgewater.
他將其命名為橋水（Bridgewater）。
04:30
His business model was simple.
他的商業模式很簡單。
04:32
He would do his best to study the commodity market, then share his insights with his clients.
他會盡力研究商品市場，然後與客戶分享他的見解。
04:39
In the late 1970s, many American businesses started their global expansion.
在1970年代末，許多美國企業開始進行全球擴張。
04:43
As a result, they exposed themselves to various currency and commodity risks.
因此，他們暴露在各種貨幣和商品風險之中。
04:49
Dalio understood currencies, interest rates, and commodities.
達利歐精通貨幣、利率和商品。
04:54
While working at Sherson, Dalio had built a strong relationship with their clients, who now continue to pay Dalio for his advice.
Dalio built a reputation for quality research on macroeconomics.
達利歐在宏觀經濟研究方面建立了良好的聲譽。
05:13
He published his thoughts in daily observations, his newsletter at that time.
他當時在《每日觀察》新聞通訊中發表他的想法。
05:18
It became widely read by corporate executives, policy makers, and central bankers around the world.
這份通訊被全球的企業高管、政策制定者和央行行長廣泛閱讀。
05:24
In a way, reading Dalio was a content marketer.
在某種程度上，閱讀達利歐的文章就是一種內容行銷。
05:28
Even to this day, if you look at his social media, he consistently publishes his findings to the world.
即使到今天，如果你看他的社交媒體，他仍然持續向世界發布他的研究成果。
05:35
He understood the power of personal brand before the term even existed.
在「個人品牌」這個詞出現之前，他就已經理解其力量。
05:42
Soon Dalio had attracted a following of powerful players in business.
很快，達利歐吸引了一群商業界的強大玩家。
05:45
One of them was McDonald’s.
其中之一是麥當勞。
05:48
He created a hedging strategy for McDonald’s to minimize its exposure to the volatility of chicken prices.
他為麥當勞制定了一種對沖策略，以最小化其對雞肉價格波動的風險。
05:54
This allowed McDonald’s to keep a stable price for the chicken McNuggets.
這使得麥當勞能夠保持麥克雞塊的穩定價格。
05:59
Dalio was content with his consulting business because it allows him to do what he loves the most: research on how the economic machine works.
達利歐對他的顧問業務感到滿意，因為這讓他能夠做他最喜歡的事：研究經濟機器的運作方式。
06:09
But in 1985, after benefiting from reading Dalio’s advice many times, the World Bank decided to give Dalio $5 million as a test portfolio.
但在1985年，世界銀行在多次受益於達利歐的建議後，決定給予達利歐500萬美元作為測試投資組合。
06:19
This is the beginning of Dalio’s career as a money manager.
這是達利歐作為資金經理職業生涯的開始。
06:25
So this might surprise a lot of people.
這可能會讓很多人感到驚訝。
06:28
Dalio never wanted to build a hedge fund.
達利歐從未想過要建立一個對沖基金。
06:31
He was just happy doing his research.
他只是樂於進行他的研究。
06:34
And even to this day, if you look at his videos online, he seems very down to earth.
即使到今天，如果你看他在網上的影片，他看起來仍然非常平易近人。
06:39
He would go on podcasts and he never comes off as a hedge fund billionaire.
他會參加播客節目，但從不表現得像一個對沖基金億萬富翁。
06:45
In the meantime, most money managers follow a benchmark, say the S&P 500, to judge how a portfolio performs.
同時，大多數資金經理會追蹤一個基準，比如標準普爾500指數，來判斷投資組合的表現。
06:53
But Dalio wanted a portfolio based on pure alphas.
但達利歐想要一個基於純阿爾法的投資組合。
06:57
And then we have what we call our pure alpha strategy because there’s a separation between alpha and beta.
然後我們有所謂的純阿爾法策略，因為阿爾法和貝塔是分開的。
07:05
So most investors make the mistake of separating those two and think that they’re going to make money in the market.
所以大多數投資者犯的錯誤是將這兩者分開，並認為他們會在市場上賺錢。
07:13
And in a zero-sum game, they’re probably going to lose money from making those bets.
在一個零和遊戲中，他們可能會因為這些賭注而賠錢。
07:18
So when we talk about returns, they can come from two sources.
因此，當我們談論回報時，它們可以來自兩個來源。
07:21
The first source is beta.
第一個來源是貝塔。
07:23
This is the type of return where you get from the market.
這是你從市場獲得的回報類型。
07:27
So if the economy does well, you make more returns from beta.
因此，如果經濟表現良好，你會從貝塔獲得更多回報。
07:30
And the second return type is alpha.
第二種回報類型是阿爾法。
07:33
This is a type of return you get when you have some kind of informational advantage.
這是你在擁有某種信息優勢時獲得的回報類型。
07:38
Suppose you notice there’s more cars parked at Walmart’s parking lot this year than previous one.
假設你注意到今年沃爾瑪停車場停放的車輛比去年更多。
07:45
And you expect that Walmart is going to beat its earnings for this quarter.
而你預期沃爾瑪這個季度的盈利將超出預期。
07:50
And the return to make from this trade is coming from alpha.
這筆交易的回報來自於阿爾法。
07:55
It’s because you have that advantage of the information.
因為你擁有這些資訊的優勢。
07:59
In probability theory, it’s called independent events.
在機率論中，這被稱為獨立事件。
08:02
A pure alpha portfolio is a collection of these independent bets, all based on Bridgewater’s unique understanding of the market better than any other participants.
純阿爾法投資組合是這些獨立投注的集合，全部基於橋水對市場的獨特理解，比任何其他參與者都更優越。
08:13
This strategy proved to be a success.
這一策略被證明是成功的。
08:16
Although it doesn’t have the best annualized returns, it is uniquely uncorrelated to the market, proving to be a great alternative investment for investors.
雖然它的年化回報不是最好的，但它與市場的相關性獨特地低，成為投資者的絕佳另類投資選擇。
08:27
In 2020, Bridgewater had $138 billion under management, making it the biggest hedge fund in the world.
2020年，橋水管理的資產達到1380億美元，成為全球最大的對沖基金。
08:35
But Dalio’s ambition was never to become rich.
但達利歐的野心從來不是為了致富。
08:38
Rather, he views money as a byproduct of his desire to seek truth.
