The government raises interest rates twice in one day to 15 percent in its all-out battle to prop up sterling, but after a frantic day's trading, the pound plunges again.
政府在一天內兩度調升利率至15%，全力撐起英鎊，但在經過混亂的一天交易後，英鎊再度暴跌。
00:19
Today has been an extremely difficult and turbulent day.
今天是極其艱難且動盪的一天。
00:23
George Soros made a billion dollars almost overnight.
索羅斯幾乎一夜之間賺進十億美元。
00:27
This is the infamous Black Wednesday of 1992.
這就是1992年惡名昭彰的「黑色星期三」。
00:33
Losing 3.5 billions, the Bank of England is into feet, at the hands of George Soros.
英格蘭銀行損失了35億英鎊，敗在索羅斯手下。
00:51
What's it like to have a lot of money?
拥有大量金錢是什麼感覺？
00:52
It gives you a degree of freedom, and it also gives you a degree of power.
它帶來一定程度的自由，也帶來一定程度的權力。
00:59
We all need to wake up to you, George Soros says, how big his organization is.
我們都需要醒悟，索羅斯說，他的組織有多麼龐大。
01:04
The major takedown of George Soros is in process.
對索羅斯的重大打擊正在進行中。
01:07
George Soros is one of the richest men in the world.
索羅斯是世界上最富有的人之一。
01:10
He would be blamed for the financial collapses in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia.
他將被指責為泰國、馬來西亞、印尼、日本和俄羅斯金融崩盤的罪魁禍首。
01:42
George Soros' childhood is anything but normal.
索羅斯的童年絕不平凡。
01:45
His father, Tevadar Soros, was a prisoner of war during World War I, and spent three years on the run in Siberia.
他的父親特瓦達爾·索羅斯在第一次世界大戰期間是戰俘，並在西伯利亞逃亡了三年。
01:55
By the time his second son, George Soros is born in 1930, his built a successful career as a lawyer in Budapest.
到1930年他的次子索羅斯出生時，他已在布達佩斯建立了成功的律師事業。
02:03
He was a prisoner of war in Russia, and he escaped, and he lived through the Russian revolution, and he came back from that, a changed man.
他曾是俄國的戰俘，逃脫後，經歷了俄國革命，並從中改變了自己。
02:13
Tevadar spent a great deal of time teaching George about the art of survival.
特瓦達爾花了很多時間教導索羅斯生存的藝術。
02:19
He went through a horrendous experience, and that taught him a lesson which then came in very useful.
他經歷了可怕的遭遇，這教會了他一課，後來這課變得非常有用。
02:25
He, in turn, taught me a lesson which came in useful to me.
他反過來教會了我一課，這課對我非常有用。
02:29
His father's pragmatism and survival instinct will be the building blocks for success later in life, but the peace and prosperity his family enjoys is short-lived.
父親的務實精神和生存本能將成為他日後成功的基石，但他家庭享有的和平與繁榮卻是短暫的。
03:06
I think Hitler is uniquely the most genocide of the world, and fundamentally, he was going to kill as many people who were outside of his master race principle as he possibly could.
我認為希特勒是世界上最殘暴的種族滅絕者，他根本上想要殺死所有不符合他優等種族原則的人。
03:23
And he did.
而他確實這麼做了。
03:25
Hitler's conquest had wiped out millions of Jews in Western Europe.
希特勒的征服已經消滅了西歐數百萬的猶太人。
03:29
His next target is Hungary, a country housing the largest Jewish population in Eastern Europe.
他的下一個目標是匈牙利，這個國家擁有東歐最大的猶太人口。
03:45
Nazi authorities start distributing deportation notice to local Jews, but such a deportation notice is a death sentence in disguise.
納粹當局開始向當地猶太人發放遣送通知，但這樣的遣送通知實際上是一個偽裝的死刑判決。
03:55
The young George Soros is asked by the Nazi authorities to deliver the notice to the Jewish community.
年輕的喬治·索羅斯被納粹當局要求將通知送達猶太社區。
04:07
Having suffered the worst of war, Soros's father is determined to survive again by any means necessary.
經歷了戰爭的最惡劣時期，索羅斯的父親決心不惜一切代價再次生存下去。
04:15
Basically, there are times when the normal rules don't apply.
基本上，有時候正常的規則並不適用。
04:22
You see, the way you've looked at the world is just not applicable because the world has changed.
你看，你過去看待世界的方式已經不再適用，因為世界已經改變了。
04:29
So he's sold his real estate holdings and starts hiding his family in different locations around the country, under false identities, and by bribing authorities.
於是他賣掉了他的房地產資產，開始將家人藏匿在全國各地不同的地點，使用假身份，並通過賄賂當局。
04:44
By the time Nazis retreated for Hungary, all the Jewish children of Soros age are severely traumatized.
當納粹從匈牙利撤退時，所有與索羅斯同齡的猶太兒童都受到了嚴重的創傷。
04:52
Some even bring handguns to the classrooms, but not George Soros.
有些人甚至帶著手槍進教室，但喬治·索羅斯不是這樣。
04:57
He finds the whole experience of the war during 1944, thrilling.
他發現1944年戰爭期間的整個經歷令人興奮。
05:02
It's obvious now that Soros may have a different personality than most.
現在顯而易見的是，索羅斯可能擁有與大多數人不同的個性。
05:06
People like him thrive by taking huge risks, and it's a common characteristic of many great traders, but Soros's happiness is only temporary.
像他這樣的人通過承擔巨大的風險而蓬勃發展，這是許多偉大交易者的共同特徵，但索羅斯的快樂只是暫時的。
05:16
After one evil is defeated, a worse one has taken its place.
一個邪惡被擊敗後，一個更糟糕的邪惡取而代之。
05:22
The occupation by Russians will forever scar Soros's family.
俄羅斯人的佔領將永遠傷害索羅斯的家庭。
05:28
Suddenly, two Russian soldiers stepped in front of us, and they laid me down the one step in front of my head with his weapon, they raped me, two of them.
He's deeply troubled and starts questioning the nature of reality.
他深感困擾，並開始質疑現實的本質。
05:55
We're going to see very likely many of the patterns you'd see in ongoing CPTSD, that there'll be emotional numbing, that there'll be a fear and a confusion about close relationships.
And dissociation is when a person almost breaks away.
解離是指一個人幾乎與自身脫離。
06:15
It's as though they break away from their own reality, or break away from themselves.
就好像他們脫離了自己的現實，或與自己割裂。
06:19
They're not present in the situation anymore, they've gone someplace else.
他們不再身處當下的情境，而是去了別的地方。
06:25
The young George is desperately trying to break away from this unforgiving chaos of life.
年輕的喬治拼命想要擺脫這個無情混亂的生活。
06:31
After his 17th birthday, he leaves his family behind, and embarks on a journey to the West.
在他17歲生日之後，他離開了家人，踏上了前往西方的旅程。
06:42
By the time Soros arrives in London, he is penniless.
當索羅斯抵達倫敦時，他身無分文。
06:47
To make ends meet, he becomes a waiter, and saves money by eating leftovers from customers.
為了維持生計，他成為了一名侍者，並透過吃顧客的剩菜來省錢。
06:56
After all the suffering Soros has endured, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
在索羅斯經歷了所有苦難之後，終於看到了隧道盡頭的光明。
07:01
He's accepted to the London School of Economics.
他被倫敦政治經濟學院錄取。
07:05
London School of Economics is perhaps the best school to study economics, but what really made this school special was the amount of world leaders it has created.
倫敦政治經濟學院或許是學習經濟學的最佳學府，但真正使這所學校與眾不同的是它培養出的眾多世界領袖。
07:16
But initially, Soros is a loner thrown into the world of unknowns.
但最初，索羅斯是一個被拋入未知世界的孤獨者。
07:20
The only thing that he can do is to devote all of his time to his coursework.
他唯一能做的就是將所有時間都投入到課業中。
07:25
He studied under the famous philosopher Carl Popper.
他師從著名哲學家卡爾·波普爾。
07:28
So I think Popper was a genuine contribution to our understanding of what we're doing.
因此，我認為波普爾對我們理解自身所做之事做出了真正的貢獻。
07:35
His problem was to discriminate between Einstein on the one hand, and Marx and Freud on the other.
他的問題在於如何區分愛因斯坦與馬克思和弗洛伊德。
07:42
As far as he was concerned, Marx and Freud were sort of pseudoscience, and Einstein was real science, but the question is what was the difference?
在他看來，馬克思和弗洛伊德是一種偽科學，而愛因斯坦是真正的科學，但問題在於區別在哪裡？
07:50
And it was his notion of the concept of falsifiability.
而這就是他提出的「可證偽性」概念。
07:54
Soros finds Popper's ideas intriguing.
索羅斯發現波普爾的想法非常引人入勝。
07:56
I was very much influenced by Carl Popper, who taught me that perfect knowledge is not attainable.
我深受卡爾·波普爾的影響，他教導我完美的知識是無法獲得的。
08:05
We all act on the basis of an imperfect understanding of reality.
我們都基於對現實不完美的理解來行動。
08:12
While before Soros was aimless, now he finds his mission in life, becoming a philosopher.
而之前的索羅斯還沒有目標，現在他找到了人生的使命，成為一名哲學家。
08:19
Just like his mentor, Carl Popper.
就像他的導師卡爾·波普爾一樣。
08:23
But Soros quickly finds out that there is no way he can afford a graduate school.
但索羅斯很快發現，他負擔不起研究生院的費用。
08:29
The shortage of money was very serious.
資金短缺的問題非常嚴重。
08:32
It was very important for me to make a living.
對我來說，謀生非常重要。
08:35
I developed my philosophy in college while I was also earning my way through college.
我在大學期間發展我的哲學思想，同時也靠工作來支付學費。
08:43
By working in various jobs, for instance, I had a waiter in a nightclub while I was studying during the day.
例如，我曾在夜總會當侍者，白天則繼續學業。
08:54
He needs to make a living fast.
他需要盡快謀生。
08:56
Upon graduation, he senses there's a good money to be made in finance.
畢業後，他感覺在金融領域有很好的賺錢機會。
09:01
He was really taking the initiatives.
他真的很主動。
09:03
He wrote a letter to every managing director of every bank in London, hoping to find a job.
他給倫敦每家銀行的每位總經理寫信，希望能找到一份工作。
09:09
It worked.
這招奏效了。
09:10
A merchant bank offers him a job as a trainee.
一家商業銀行提供他一份實習生的工作。
09:12
He happily accepts it.
他欣然接受了。
09:15
He works as a trader specializing in gold stock arbitrage, trying to take advantage of the price discrepancies in different markets.
他擔任交易員，專門從事黃金股票套利，試圖利用不同市場的價格差異。
09:23
But he's a terrible at the job.
但他這份工作做得很糟糕。
09:25
In just two years, he quits.
短短兩年內，他就辭職了。
09:30
After World War II, the U.S. emerged as the most powerful nation on the planet.
第二次世界大戰後，美國成為地球上最強大的國家。
09:34
The economy overall grew by 37 percent during the 1950s.
整體經濟在1950年代成長了37%。
09:38
Thanks to S. and Howard's administration, inflation was low and so was the unemployment rate.
多虧了S.和Howard的管理，通貨膨脹率和失業率都很低。
09:44
People around the world are eager to come here to pursue their American dream.
全世界的人都渴望來這裡追求他們的美國夢。
09:49
Soros is one of them.
索羅斯就是其中之一。
09:50
In 1956, he moved to New York City, working as an arbitrage trader for several financial firms.
1956年，他搬到了紐約市，在幾家金融公司擔任套利交易員。
09:57
I had a very modest ambition.
我當時的野心很小。
09:59
I just wanted to five years in America and earn at the time, I said, a hundred thousand dollars and then I could live on the income from that.
我只想在美國待五年，賺到當時我說的十萬美元，然後我就可以靠那筆收入過活。
10:13
American industry has grown with prodigious speed to its immense size of today and the capital to build the nation from a raw frontier to the greatest industrial giant in the world.
美國工業以驚人的速度成長到今天的龐大規模，資本將這個國家從原始邊疆建設成世界上最大的工業巨頭。
10:26
But he struggles to find an edge in the industry.
但他努力在行業中尋找優勢。
10:30
The job of arbitrage trader makes Soros think about how different assets relate to each other.
套利交易員的工作讓索羅斯思考不同資產之間的關係。
10:36
At the time, very few investors thought about world finance as an interconnected system.
當時，很少有投資者將世界金融視為一個相互連接的系統。
10:41
But Soros was one of the first to have that sort of system view.
但索羅斯是最早擁有這種系統觀點的人之一。
10:46
Soros is going to find a new approach to investing.
索羅斯將找到一種新的投資方法。
10:51
Although he was educated as an economist, he finds classical economic ideas not useful at all in the real world.
雖然他受過經濟學家的教育，但他發現古典經濟學的理念在現實世界中完全沒有用處。
10:59
My interpretation of financial markets directly contradicts the efficient market hypothesis which has been the prevailing theory about financial markets.
我對金融市場的解釋直接與有效市場假說相矛盾，後者一直是關於金融市場的主流理論。
11:11
That theory claims that markets tend towards equilibrium.
該理論聲稱市場趨向於均衡。
11:17
Deviations occur in a random fashion and can be attributed to extraneous shocks.
偏差以隨機方式發生，可以歸因於外部衝擊。
11:24
If that theory is valid, mine is false and vice versa.
如果該理論有效，我的就是錯誤的，反之亦然。
11:30
Instead, Soros finds out that the real world of finance resembles that of a chaotic system.
相反，索羅斯發現金融的現實世界類似於一個混沌系統。
11:38
Almost any human enterprise is inevitably driven by two forces, reality, and the expectation by the participants.
凡是人類的事業，幾乎都不可避免地受到兩種力量的驅動：現實和參與者的期望。
11:47
They are interdependent, but since human perception are biased and flawed, there will always be a gap.
它們是相互依存的，但由於人類的認知存在偏見和缺陷，總是會存在差距。
11:54
Such a gap represents trading opportunities.
這種差距代表了交易機會。
11:58
Soros probably didn't know at the time his theory of reflexivity resembles that of a chaos theory.
索羅斯當時可能不知道他的反射理論與混沌理論相似。
12:04
Without a doubt, chaos is the natural state of affairs of human beings.
無庸置疑，混沌是人類的自然狀態。
12:09
If I'm afraid of being mugged in New York City walking down the street, I will become very, very cautious.
如果我在紐約市走在街上害怕被搶劫，我會變得非常非常謹慎。
12:17
As I become cautious, I become a target.
當我變得謹慎時，我就成了目標。
12:20
Therefore, I am inviting the very thing that I'm afraid of.
因此，我正在招惹我所害怕的事情。
12:23
Soros believes that our reality is more dynamic and chaotic than what people believe.
索羅斯認為，我們的現實比人們認為的更動態和混亂。
12:30
Their biased perception of reality will cause him to behave irrationally, creating an opportunity for him to exploit.
他們對現實的偏見認知會導致他們行為不理性，從而為他創造了利用的機會。
12:37
Soros's insight puts him 10 steps ahead of everyone else on Wall Street.
索羅斯的洞察力使他在華爾街比其他人領先了十步。
12:42
By 1969, he has saved $250,000 for himself as a trader, but to test his theory, he needs a larger sum of money.
到1969年，他作為交易員為自己存下了25萬美元，但為了測試他的理論，他需要更大一筆錢。
12:52
That is not a small amount for someone living in the 1960s, but still not enough to start his fund.
對於生活在1960年代的人來說，這不是一筆小數目，但仍然不足以啟動他的基金。
12:59
But over the years as a trader, Soros has built a strong relationship with many wealthy European investors that put up $6 million into Soros' funds.
He has a simple investing proposition, looking for a reflective boom bus trend, writing it on the way up and shorting it on the way down.
他有一個簡單的投資主張，尋找反射性的繁榮衰退趨勢，在上漲時買入，在下跌時賣空。
13:18
His timing couldn't be more perfect.
他的時機再完美不過了。
13:22
In 1969, real estate investment trust was a new hot investment vehicle.
1969年，房地產投資信託是一種新的熱門投資工具。
13:28
A REITs have proven themselves to be an attractive method by which investors can own commercial real estate.
REITs已經證明是投資者擁有商業房地產的有吸引力的方法。
13:34
Soros recognizes that this new asset class will likely experience a boom bus cycle.
索羅斯認識到這種新資產類別可能會經歷繁榮衰退週期。
13:39
He predicts that it will crash in three years.
他預測它將在三年內崩盤。
13:43
But before it actually happens, it will keep going up.
但在它實際發生之前，它會繼續上漲。
13:47
To write this trend has started heavily buying REITs.
為了跟上這個趨勢，他開始大量買入房地產投資信託（REITs）。
13:51
Soros' speculator buys these real estate trusts not because he likes properties, but simply because he sees an opportunity to cash in.
索羅斯的投機者買入這些房地產信託，並不是因為他喜歡房地產，而是因為他看到有獲利的機會。
13:59
Soros is right.
索羅斯是對的。
14:01
He makes $1 million on the way up, but he makes even more money by shorting them when his predictions come true three years later.
在上漲時他賺了100萬美元，但當他的預測在三年後成真時，他透過做空賺了更多錢。
14:09
Soros' hedge fund nearly doubles every year, managing $50 million by 1973.
索羅斯的避險基金幾乎每年都翻倍，到1973年管理的資金達到5000萬美元。
14:15
One of the shocking traits of Soros' investment style is that he doesn't bet as often as a day trader, but when he does make a bet, it's usually very large, sometimes risking his entire portfolio.
But his fund soon grows larger than what one man can handle.
但他的基金很快就發展到一個人無法獨自管理的規模。
14:33
He needs to find a partner, someone who can operate at his level.
他需要找一個合夥人，一個能夠與他同等水平運作的人。
14:39
Jim Rogers seems like the most unlikely partner for George Soros.
吉姆·羅傑斯看起來是喬治·索羅斯最不可能的合夥人。
14:44
Raised in Demopolis, Alabama, Jim Rogers grew up during a bumpy time in the American South.
在阿拉巴馬州的迪莫波利斯長大，吉姆·羅傑斯在美國南部動盪的時期中成長。
14:51
A brilliant student, Jim Rogers spent his college years in Oxford studying politics, economics, and philosophy.
作為一名優秀的學生，吉姆·羅傑斯在牛津大學度過了他的大學時光，學習政治、經濟和哲學。
14:58
Like Soros, Rogers has more of a global view of the financial market, meaning that he think about the world markets as an interconnected system, with each element of the world.
And affecting the other. This very much resembles Soros' thinking.
這與索羅斯的思維方式非常相似。
15:12
Now what does this mean for you? Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.
這對你意味著什麼？你的美元明天將與今天一樣有價值。
15:19
After Nixon broke the U.S. tradition by touching U.S. dollars to gold, the financial market is never the same.
在尼克森打破美國傳統，將美元與黃金脫鉤後，金融市場再也不一樣了。
15:26
By 1971, it was clear the dollar could no longer be exchanged into gold, and that began the modern age of inflation.
到1971年，顯然美元再也無法兌換成黃金，這標誌著現代通貨膨脹時代的開始。
15:37
By 1972, Soros and Rogers sensed that there will be a structural change in the banking industry that no one has caught on.
到1972年，索羅斯和羅傑斯感覺到銀行業將會有一個結構性的變化，而這一點尚未被人們察覺。
15:45
The banking industry before the 1980s was very regulated, and it wasn't very cool to become a banker.
1980年代之前的銀行業受到嚴格監管，成為銀行家並不是一件很酷的事。
15:53
At the beginning of the 1970s, the American banking system was still frozen into immobility.
在1970年代初期，美國銀行體系仍然處於僵化狀態。
16:02
The industry was highly fragmented and regimented.
這個行業高度分散且受到嚴格管制。
16:07
A dull business attracted dull people who were more concerned with job security than with profits.
一個沉悶的行業吸引了沉悶的人，他們更關心工作保障而非利潤。
16:14
Bank shares were traded by appointments, but I detected some signs of life.
銀行股份是通過約定交易的，但我發現了一些生機。
16:22
With easy money flowing into the market, Soros realizes that a banking sector is set to boom.
隨著輕鬆的資金流入市場，索羅斯意識到銀行業即將蓬勃發展。
16:28
He instructs his traders to buy as many shares as possible in major banks, generating 50% profit in less than a year.
他指示交易員盡可能多地購買主要銀行的股份，在不到一年的時間內獲得了50%的利潤。
16:35
Some banks were poised to embark on balanced growth by equity leveraging, i.e. selling shares at the premium.
一些銀行準備通過股權槓桿實現平衡增長，即以溢價出售股票。
16:46
The bouquet of bank shares I recommend it did, in fact, rise by some 50% in that year.
我推薦的銀行股組合實際上在當年上漲了約50%。
16:53
While the 1970s has been a difficult period for America, Soros made more money than anyone in finance.
雖然1970年代對美國來說是一個困難時期，但索羅斯在金融界賺的錢比任何人都多。
16:59
He is truly the pioneer in macro investing.
他確實是宏觀投資的先驅。
17:02
In 1970s, he invests in Japanese, Dutch, and French stocks, and at some point he put one-third of his portfolio in Japanese stocks, which doubled in a year.
In the first decade of his fund, it went up 3,000%. An unparalleled feat on Wall Street.
在他的基金的第一個十年裡，它上漲了3000%。這是華爾街前所未有的壯舉。
17:19
By 1980, Soros fund has $381 million under management.
到1980年，索羅斯的基金管理資產達到3.81億美元。
17:23
He renamed his fund to Quantum Fund, reflecting the uncertainty principle in Quantum Mechanics.
他將基金更名為量子基金，反映了量子力學中的不確定性原理。
17:35
As a child, Soros fantasized about being a god.
孩童時期，索羅斯幻想過成為神。
17:38
I did have juvenile fantasies of saving the world, so I had that sort of what I called messianic fantasies, which I think most adolescents have. I've been somewhat more successful of actually acting out those fantasies.
MassaWorks allows anyone to invest in multi-million dollar paintings by famous artists like Warhol, Banksy, and Picasso, just like picking stocks online.
That way, you know that it is an SEC approved investment, and it is safe.
這樣，你知道這是一項經 SEC 批准的投資，而且是安全的。
20:21
The securitization process also lets you invest in paintings by Picasso and Banksy for a fraction of their original cost, instead of spending millions of dollars.
證券化過程還讓你能以原價的一小部分投資畢卡索和班克斯的畫作，而不必花費數百萬美元。
20:29
You can either hold your shares until MassaWorks sells the painting, or sell to other MassaWorks members on their platform.
Once they sell the painting, they will give you your share of the profit.
一旦他們賣掉這幅畫，就會把利潤分紅給你。
20:39
For example, MassaWorks investors saw a 32% analyzed appreciation for the sale of their Banksy painting, Netafees, which almost doubled the return of S&P 500.
And in 2021, investors are set to receive a 31% analyzed appreciation for the sale of their George Condole painting.
而 2021 年，投資者預計將獲得 31% 的分析增值，來自他們出售的喬治·康多爾作品。
20:55
I'm a proud investor in Bascale out of MassaWorks platform, and I invite you to join me.
我是 MassaWorks 平台上 Bascale 的驕傲投資者，並邀請你加入我。
21:00
Through the link in the description, my viewers can skip the waitlist and invest in Lonsai Me and other billionaires in a few clicks.
通過描述中的連結，我的觀眾可以跳過等待名單，只需幾次點擊即可投資 Lonsai Me 和其他億萬富翁。
21:07
Sorrows is certain that Pope Voker's action will spell doom to the US economy.
索羅斯確信教皇沃克的行動將給美國經濟帶來厄運。
21:12
The way the Fed increases interest rate is by selling their treasury bills at the market, sometimes at a lower price, thus the interest rate will increase.
美聯儲通過在市場上出售國庫券來提高利率，有時以較低的價格，從而使利率上升。
21:21
Sorrows is expecting an inverted yield curve to happen.
索羅斯預計會出現收益率曲線倒掛。
21:24
An inverted yield curve happens when there's a stronger demand for long-term bonds versus short-term bonds and stocks.
收益率曲線倒掛是指長期債券的需求強於短期債券和股票時發生的現象。
21:31
That's exactly what Sorrows expect to have them.
這正是索羅斯預期發生的情況。
21:34
So he goes long on long-term bonds and sells short of stocks and short-term bonds.
因此，他做多長期債券，並做空股票和短期債券。
21:40
But his timing is wrong.
但他的時機掌握錯了。
21:42
The economy, however, remains strong, far longer than he anticipated.
然而，經濟仍然保持強勁，遠比他預期的要長。
21:48
When Sorrows' prediction doesn't happen in time, his bond loses $80 million in 1980.
當索羅斯的預測沒有及時實現時，他的債券在 1980 年損失了 8000 萬美元。
21:55
This is his first major loss, I think it hurt him deeply, and I also teach him a lesson about the business of running a hedge fund.
這是他第一次重大損失，我想這深深傷害了他，也讓他學到了經營對沖基金的教訓。
22:03
After losing 22% in 1980, half of his investors cashed out.
在 1980 年損失了 22% 之後，一半的投資者撤資。
22:10
As an expert in boom and bust, he realizes that this may be the end for him, and it's time to retire.
作為景氣循環的專家，他意識到這可能是他的終點，是時候退休了。
22:20
Due to a disappointing year in 1980, George Sorrows semi-retires and marries his second wife, the 28-year-old Susan Webber.
He left quantum fund at the hands of his replacement, James Marcus.
他將量子基金交給了他的接班人詹姆斯·馬庫斯。
22:34
Jim Marcus was a 33-year-old mutual fund manager who made 69% return in 1982.
吉姆·馬庫斯是一位 33 歲的共同基金經理，在 1982 年取得了 69% 的回報。
22:41
Sorrows' fund has a massive comeback in 1982, generating 56.9%.
索羅斯的基金在1982年強勢回歸，創造了56.9%的收益。
22:47
He believes that Marcus will continue this track record in the years to come.
他相信馬庫斯將在未來幾年繼續保持這一佳績。
22:56
While in 1983, quantum fund was up 25%, he only achieved a 9% gain the year later.
1983年，量子基金上漲了25%，但隔年他只獲得了9%的收益。
23:02
To Sorrows and his investors, it is a big embarrassment.
對索羅斯和他的投資者來說，這是一個巨大的尷尬。
23:07
He now believes perhaps no one can be as good as he is.
他現在認為，也許沒有人能像他一樣優秀。
23:11
But in the end of 1984, he comes back after three years of retirement.
但在1984年底，他結束了三年的退休生活，重新回歸。
23:17
The highest order of business before the nation is to restore our economic prosperity.
當前國家面臨的首要任務是恢復經濟繁榮。
23:23
Reagan's principles were number one, lower marginal tax rates, number two, deregulate, number three, hold down government spending.
里根的原則是：第一，降低邊際稅率；第二，放寬管制；第三，控制政府支出。
23:34
Number four, follow a monetary policy that will bring you low inflation.
第四，實施能帶來低通膨的貨幣政策。
23:40
The way Reagan wanted to keep a low inflation is by having a strong dollar.
里根希望通過強勢美元來保持低通膨。
23:45
That means the U.S. can import cheaper goods, thus the price level will decrease.
這意味著美國可以進口更便宜的商品，從而降低物價水平。
23:51
But Sorrows has a different idea.
但索羅斯有不同的看法。
23:54
In the wake of Reagan's high spending, note-taxing policies from the early 1980s, the United States, Sorrows' beliefs, is heading for depression.
在里根1980年代初期的高支出和減稅政策之後，索羅斯認為美國正走向經濟衰退。
24:05
By 1985, Sorrows has come back from his retirement.
到1985年，索羅斯結束了退休生活。
24:08
He sees Reagan's policy on keeping a strong dollar, a disaster for America, but also a great opportunity for him to cash in.
他認為里根的強勢美元政策對美國來說是一場災難，但也是他獲利的好機會。
24:16
He goes long on the Japanese yen and doge mark, while shorting U.S. dollar and crew oil.
他做多日元和德國馬克，同時做空美元和原油。
24:22
His prediction starts to materialize on September 22nd, 1985.
他的預測在1985年9月22日開始成真。
24:26
The central banks around the world start pushing the dollar down.
全球各大央行開始壓低美元。
24:31
By late October, the dollar falls 13% against yen, and a year later, 25%.
到10月底，美元兌日元貶值13%，一年後貶值25%。
24:38
Altogether, Sorrows make $150 million profits, a shocking 122% return.
總體而言，索羅斯獲利1.5億美元，驚人的122%回報率。
24:45
To make profits and currencies, Sorrows had to borrow a lot of money, sometimes using ten times leverage.
為了獲利和貨幣，索羅斯必須借入大量資金，有時甚至使用十倍槓桿。
24:51
The danger is that if the market goes against him, it can literally destroy him.
危險在於，如果市場與他作對，它真的可以毀了他。
24:57
After making large profits in 1986, Sorrows believes that his doomsday prediction is temporarily delayed.
在1986年獲取巨額利潤後，索羅斯認為他的末日預言暫時被延遲了。
25:05
So he goes on a buying spree of U.S. equities, hoping to catch one last ride before it crashes.
於是他開始大肆購買美國股票，希望在崩盤前搭上最後一班車。
25:12
But his timing is wrong, again.
但他的時機又錯了。
25:14
The Dow could not be saved even by falling long and short-term interest rates, and closed with a lost just sky of 300 points at 1950.76.
即使長短期利率下降也無法挽救道瓊指數，最終以1950.76點收盤，僅略低於300點。
25:27
The black money crash caught Sorrows by surprise, his trapped in a liquidity squeeze.
黑色星期一的崩盤讓索羅斯措手不及，他陷入了流動性擠壓。
25:34
The predator is now a prey.
這個掠食者現在成了獵物。
25:43
So everyone just waited.
於是每個人都在等待。
25:50
So Sorrows was able to sell his SMP futures at a price level of 195.
因此，索羅斯能夠以195點的價格出售他的SMP期貨。
25:57
But when the market closes, it goes right back to 240.
但當市場收盤時，它又回到了240點。
26:01
So he was clearly taken advantage by Wall Street traders.
顯然，他被華爾街的交易員佔了便宜。
26:09
And in fact, the crash wiped out Sorrows' entire profit for 1987.
事實上，這次崩盤抹去了索羅斯在1987年的所有利潤。
26:14
Sorrows was right about the crash, but was dead wrong about the sequence of events that happened.
索羅斯對崩盤的預測是正確的，但對事件發生的順序卻大錯特錯。
26:20
After taking a loss in October, Sorrows' other investment came into fruition, generating a 14% overall return for that year.
在10月蒙受損失後，索羅斯的其他投資開始見效，為那一年帶來了14%的整體回報。
26:30
The 1987 crash makes Sorrows once again, once a retire.
1987年的崩盤使索羅斯再次退休。
26:34
So then, about 15 years later, I started thinking, why should I keep killing myself and making money?
大約15年後，我開始思考，為什麼我要繼續折磨自己並賺錢？
26:46
Sorrows' investment strategy is very nerve-wracking, to say the least.
索羅斯的投資策略至少可以說是非常令人緊張的。
26:50
And as people grow older, the risk-taking tendency tends to decrease.
隨著年齡的增長，人們的風險承受傾向會減少。
26:55
I was walking on the street from one bank to another trying to make the arrangement, and I thought I was going to have a heart attack.
我從一家銀行走到另一家銀行，試圖安排事宜，覺得自己快要心臟病發作了。
27:04
And that's when I realized this tension to make money is really not worth it if it's going to kill me.
就在那時，我意識到為了賺錢而承受的壓力，如果會要我的命，那真的不值得。
27:12
That's when I decided to actually change course, when I decided to actually return to philanthropy.
就在那時，我決定改變方向，決定重返慈善事業。
27:21
Without audacious risk-taking, Sorrows' knows his funds' performance will suffer.
沒有大膽的冒險精神，索羅斯知道他的基金表現會受到影響。
27:26
To retire in peace and to maintain the funds' performance, Sorrow needs to find a younger version of himself to take his place.
為了安心退休並維持基金的表現，索羅斯需要找到一個年輕版的自己來接替他的位置。
27:35
By the fall of 1988, he found his man.
到了1988年秋天，他找到了這個人。
27:41
Like Sorrows, Stanley Druckenmiller has a humble beginning.
與索羅斯一樣，史丹利·德魯肯米勒出身卑微。
27:45
He grew up in a single-parent family.
他在單親家庭中長大。
27:46
He didn't go to any fancy Ivy League college.
他沒有上過任何常春藤盟校。
27:50
And in fact, to make money, he had to open a hot-dock stand on campus.
事實上，為了賺錢，他不得不在校園裡開了一個熱狗攤。
27:55
Druckenmiller's career takes off immediately after graduation.
德魯肯米勒的職業生涯在畢業後立即起飛。
27:59
By 1988, his Strategic Aggressive Investing Fund becomes the highest performing fund in the industry.
到1988年，他的戰略進取投資基金成為業內表現最佳的基金。
28:06
Druckenmiller was admire of Sorrows' long before they met.
德魯肯米勒在與索羅斯見面之前就非常崇拜他。
28:09
They're very similar in a lot of ways.
他們在很多方面都非常相似。
28:11
Both have a big disregard for academic finance, and they're all big-patient thinkers and are also very practical.
兩人都對學術金融不屑一顧，都是大膽且有耐心的思考者，同時也非常務實。
28:18
After spending one year mentoring Druckenmiller, Sorrows finally given the full ring of Quantum Fund.
在花了一年時間指導德魯肯米勒後，索羅斯終於將量子基金的全權交給了他。
28:23
Up until that point, I had a very good record, but it was only after I was the George that I learned how much you should really press about when your confidence level is extremely high.
在那之前，我的記錄一直很好，但直到我成為索羅斯後，我才學會當你的信心極高時，應該如何全力以赴。
28:37
I did find where before I was there it don't get me wrong, but it was amazing to watch that man when we had something we really believed in to see the way he would size risk and reward.
After retirement, Sorrows started spending most of his time with his charity.
退休後，索羅斯開始將大部分時間花在他的慈善事業上。
29:00
I started out with a framework that I really developed as a student when I was influenced by Karl Popper, Open Society and his enemies, and I set up a foundation to foster open societies.
The fund's performance has actually gotten better after he left, so people speculate that Sorrows uses the charity to get access to world leaders in order to have a better information about the world economy.
