After winning a hostile takeover battle against Berkshire Hathaway, Buffet now fully controls the textile company, but he quickly realizes that he has made a grave mistake.
Part of the partnership was buying what looked like cheap stocks, Berkshire Hathaway looked like a cheap stock, it wasn't a very, it was a terrible business.
The textile industry is headed towards an inevitable decline, Buffet's ownership of the company is bound to be worthless, unless he can find someone else to buy it.
紡織業正走向不可避免的衰退，巴菲特對該公司的擁有權註定會變得一文不值，除非他能找到其他人來收購它。
00:39
He turns to his trusted friend, Charlie Munger for help, offering to sell him Berkshire Hathaway pennies on a dollar, but Munger declines his offer, instead he shows Buffet another way out.
He presents a new company to Buffet, one that has the potential to change Berkshire's fortunes.
他向巴菲特介紹了一家新公司，這家公司有潛力改變伯克希爾的命運。
01:02
The company is called Blue Chip Stamps.
這家公司名為藍籌印花。
01:06
Blue Chip Stamps sells stamps at a discount to store owners and marketplaces.
藍籌印花以折扣價格向商店老闆和市場銷售印花。
01:13
These stamps are then given to customers as rewards.
這些印花隨後被作為獎勵發給顧客。
01:17
Since customers collect stamps to redeem from rewards at a later time, Blue Chip Stamps holds on to a substantial amount of cash, known as float.
由於顧客收集印花以便日後兌換獎勵，藍籌印花持有大量現金，這被稱為浮存金。
01:28
For Buffet and Munger, having access to the float will be advantageous.
對於巴菲特和芒格來說，能夠使用這些浮存金將是一大優勢。
01:33
Blue Chip Stamps is kind of like an insurance company, having a large amount of cash can potentially give Buffet and Munger the opportunity to invest the funds in other companies.
藍籌印花有點像保險公司，擁有大量現金可能會給巴菲特和芒格提供機會，將資金投資於其他公司。
01:44
Buffet and Munger keep buying their shares of Blue Chip Stamps until they have full control of the company.
巴菲特和芒格不斷購買藍籌印花的股份，直到他們完全控制了該公司。
01:54
With his investment in Blue Chip Stamps, Warren Buffet has extended a lifeline to Berkshire Hathaway, but it's not nearly enough.
通過對藍籌印花的投資，沃倫·巴菲特為伯克希爾·哈撒韋延續了生命線，但這遠遠不夠。
02:04
To truly say Berkshire Hathaway, Buffet knows he must take decisive actions.
要真正拯救伯克希爾·哈撒韋，巴菲特知道他必須採取果斷的行動。
02:10
He knows you'll be a daunting task, something he can do if he is under constant pressure from the partners of his fund.
他知道這將是一項艱巨的任務，如果他不斷受到基金合夥人的壓力，他將難以完成。
02:18
Then Warren Buffet does the unthinkable.
然後，沃倫·巴菲特做出了令人難以置信的決定。
02:22
In order to free himself to pursue his vision for Berkshire Hathaway, he shuts down his investment partnership.
為了能夠自由追求他對伯克希爾·哈撒韋的願景，他關閉了他的投資合夥企業。
02:29
For over a decade Warren Buffet has amassed a fortune for his investment partners, achieving a remarkable annualized return of 23% over 13 years.
十多年來，沃倫·巴菲特為他的投資合夥人積累了大量財富，在13年內取得了驚人的23%年化回報率。
02:39
And from the dissolution of his partnership, Buffet finds himself with a staggering $16 million in cash, is a type of money he will use to rebuild Berkshire Hathaway.
Determined to not only say Berkshire Hathaway, but to transform it into an empire, Buffet goes all in, investing the majority of his net worth into the company that will become his legacy.
It's a gamble that would define his career and reshape the world of finance forever.
這是一場賭注，將定義他的職業生涯，並永遠改變金融世界。
03:08
It's really remarkable because Buffet was again going against what Ben Grant has taught him, which was to avoid taking on too much risk.
這真的很了不起，因為巴菲特再次違背了本·格雷厄姆教他的道理，即避免承擔過多風險。
03:16
But I think what he was really doing was betting on himself.
但我想他真正做的是在賭自己。
03:20
He has so much confidence in his own ability to turn Berkshire Hathaway into a major success that he was willing to put all of his money into the company, although it was facing bankruptcy.
To say Berkshire Warren is pending his hopes on cash flow generating companies like Blue Chip Stamps.
可以說，伯克希爾·哈撒韋正將希望寄託在現金流生成公司，如藍籌印花公司。
03:55
But in spite of his seemingly infallible plan, Buffet and Munger's investment in Blue Chips is also turning into a catastrophe.
但儘管他的計劃看似萬無一失，巴菲特和芒格對藍籌印花的投資也正變成一場災難。
04:05
Blue Chip Stamps is accused of colluding with other Stamps companies to stifle competition and impose unjust restrictions on merchants.
藍籌印花被指控與其他印花公司勾結，壓制競爭並對商家施加不公正的限制。
04:14
The Supreme Court rules against them, allowing private parties to sue for antitrust violations.
最高法院裁定他們敗訴，允許私人當事方提起反壟斷違法訴訟。
04:21
Blue Chip Stamps now faces a decline in profit margins.
藍籌印花現在面臨利潤率下降的問題。
04:25
It's a threat to their competitive advantage.
這對他們的競爭優勢構成了威脅。
04:29
For Munger, who's managing a fund for his partners, the fate of his courier rests on the success of Blue Chip Stamps.
對於芒格來說，他正在為合夥人管理一個基金，他的命運取決於藍籌印花的成功。
04:38
In a desperate attempt to make out for the potential losses, Munger and Buffet are in a hunt for another company to acquire, one that has stable earnings that can provide a cushion for Blue Chip Stamps' declining business.
And it turns out a small candy store located out in Los Angeles may just be the solution to their problems.
而結果是，洛杉磯的一家小糖果店可能正好是他們問題的解決方案。
05:05
In 1971, Seize Candies is the most popular store in West Coast.
1971年，西斯糖果是西海岸最受歡迎的商店。
05:10
So basically, Buffet and Munger were looking for companies with enduring competitive advantage.
基本上，巴菲特和芒格正在尋找擁有持久競爭優勢的公司。
05:16
They called it a moat, and they found what they're looking for in Seize Candies.
他們稱之為護城河，而他們在西斯糖果中找到了他們想要的。
05:20
If you've got an economic castle, people are going to come and want to take that castle away from you, and you'd better have a strong boat, you'd better have a knight in that castle than that's what he's doing.
With his unwavering popularity, Seize Candies posts a consistent string of earnings, recognizing the potential for stability among volatility, Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger seized opportunity to acquire Seize Candies with a cash from Blue Chip Stamps.
And to make sure Seize Candies' success continues, Buffet and Munger become personally invested in the business, taking hands-on approach to its operations.
為了確保西斯糖果的成功繼續，巴菲特和芒格親自投資於這項業務，採取實際操作的方法。
05:59
They go so far as to launch a legal defense against competitors seeking to copy the candy store's success.
他們甚至發起法律辯護，反對試圖複製糖果店成功的競爭對手。
06:10
The acquisition of Seize Candies proved to be a monumental success, propelling the business to thrive for the next 60 years, generating billions in profit.
But by the mid-1970s, Buffet and Munger's firms are still barely surviving, but they have found a way to keep their companies afloat by acquiring other cash flow generating companies.
Buffet and Munger love insurance companies because they generate stable cash flows that can be used to invest in other companies, and soon they began looking for a different kind of company but has the same business model.
But a bidding war ensues, pitting them against Financial Corporation of Santa Barbara, a company with greater resources.
但一場競標戰隨之展開，使他們與擁有更多資源的聖塔芭芭拉金融公司對抗。
07:02
Despite the challenge, Buffet persuades the owner to sell Westco to him and Munger.
盡管面臨挑戰，巴菲特仍說服業主將Westco賣給他和蒙格。
07:07
The announcement causes Westco's stock to plummet from $16 to $11 per share, presenting an opportunity for profit.
這一宣布導致Westco的股價從每股16美元暴跌至11美元，為獲利提供了機會。
07:18
Instead of taking advantage of the situation, Buffet and Munger decide to purchase the stocks at $17 per share, for going $5 per share of potential profit due to their sense of integrity.
Now, with Bluetooth stands owning over half of Westco's financial, Munger assumes the position of Chairman for the newly acquired company.
現在，布魯托斯擁有Westco金融的大部分股份，蒙格擔任新收購公司的董事長。
07:41
The future of Brookshire is finally looking up as Buffet's ownership of numerous cash generating businesses mitigates the impact of a declining textile industry.
布魯克希爾的未來終於有了起色，因為巴菲特擁有眾多產生現金流的業務，緩解了紡織業衰退的影響。
07:51
Ironically, by trying to save both of their firms, they stumbled upon a very ingenious business model.
諷刺的是，在試圖拯救他們的公司時，他們偶然發現了一種非常聰明的商業模式。
07:57
This model involves purchasing companies with a lot of cash reserves or floats, and then utilizing the funds to purchase other companies.
這種模式涉及收購擁有大量現金儲備或浮動資金的公司，然後利用這些資金收購其他公司。
08:07
But Buffet and Munger's victory is for lasted.
但巴菲特和蒙格的勝利並未持久。
08:11
Their unique approach to business attracts the attention of the SEC, and a tough prosecutor who's ready to come after everything Buffet and Munger own.
他們獨特的商業方法引起了SEC的注意，一位嚴厲的檢察官準備追查巴菲特和蒙格擁有的一切。
08:24
The stock market toppled to new lows for the year again yesterday that concluded one of the most adverse weeks in Wall Street history.
股市在昨天再次跌至今年新低，結束了華爾街歷史上最嚴峻的週末之一。
08:31
The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 15.57 points to 922.19.
道瓊斯工業平均指數暴跌15.57點，至922.19點。
08:38
After the market crash, Brookshire's stock drops in half.
股市崩盤後，布魯克希爾的股價跌了一半。
08:42
During a bear market, the SEC tends to face a lot of pressure to calm the public's frustration, and they tend to increase their efforts in prosecuting companies and individuals.
在熊市期間，SEC往往面臨很大的壓力，需要平息公眾的不滿，他們往往會加大對公司和個人的起訴力度。
08:53
A formidable up-and-comer in the SEC is on his way to becoming one of the toughest prosecutors in the government.
SEC中一位前途無量的新星即將成為政府中最嚴厲的檢察官之一。
09:01
Stanley Sporkin has been looking into Buffet and Munger's takeover of West Cove Financial.
斯坦利·斯波金一直在調查巴菲特和蒙格對West Cove Financial的收購。
09:07
Sporkin could not understand why Buffet and Munger would overpay for a deal when there's a clear opportunity to make a profit.
Sporkin 無法理解為何巴菲特和芒格會在有明顯獲利機會時，還要高價收購交易。
09:15
Sporkin, with a king eye for deception, suspects that Buffet and Munger have constructed a complex web of acquisitions and business dealings to conceal their illegal activities.
For Buffet and Munger, who value their reputation more than anything else, the potential of getting indicted is their worst nightmare.
對於巴菲特和芒格來說，他們最重視的是聲譽，而被起訴的可能性是他們最恐懼的夢魘。
09:40
In the end, the very thing they're afraid to lose ends up becoming the thing that saves them.
最終，他們最害怕失去的東西，反而成為拯救他們的關鍵。
09:47
Buffet and Munger have cultivated an impeccable reputation among their business associates, meeting many of them to come to their defense.
巴菲特和芒格在商業夥伴中培養了無可挑剔的聲譽，許多人紛紛站出來為他們辯護。
09:54
In fact, many individuals have come so far as to contact Stanley Sporkin to vouch for Buffet and Munger and plead with him to not indict them.
事實上，許多人甚至主動聯繫 Stanley Sporkin，為巴菲特和芒格擔保，並懇求他不要起訴他們。
10:04
Ultimately, the substantial support extended, but a colleagues and associates of Buffet and Munger successfully persuaded the SEC to abstain from pressing charges against them.
He realizes the complexity of his investment deals has gotten him into trouble.
他意識到投資交易的複雜性已經給他帶來了麻煩。
11:06
Time has come to consolidate businesses.
是時候整合業務了。
11:09
After years of struggling to revitalize the textile department, Buffet makes a decision that is all but inevitable.
在多年努力振興紡織部門後，巴菲特做出了一個幾乎無可避免的決定。
11:15
He shuts down all textile mills.
他關閉了所有紡織廠。
11:19
And to further straight-line the business, Buffet and Munger merge Berkshire Hathaway with blue-chip stamps and appoint Munger as vice-chairman.
為了進一步簡化業務，巴菲特和芒格將伯克希爾·哈撒韋與藍籌印花公司合併，並任命芒格為副董事長。
11:28
And finally, the new Berkshire Hathaway is born.
最後，新的伯克希爾·哈撒韋誕生了。
11:32
Step-by-step, and we've created something that kind of when I grabbed, we might create over time, but it took a lot of time to do it and never seemed like we were making that progress, much progress on only one day.
And with the dawn of a new decade, Buffet and Munger cemented their partnership and discovered a business model that will propel their snowball to epic proportions, securing their legacy for decades to come.
In the 1980s, the U.S. economy reaches unprecedented heights, and Warren Buffett's business is no exception.
在1980年代，美國經濟達到了前所未有的高度，沃倫·巴菲特的生意也不例外。
12:14
Through strategic acquisitions of firms like the Furniture Mart and ABC News, Buffet has elevated his business to new levels.
通過戰略性收購家具市場和ABC新聞等公司，巴菲特將他的生意提升到了新的水平。
12:22
As a result, Berkshire Hathaway's stock has soared to $2,000 per share, making Buffet a billionaire.
因此，伯克希爾·哈撒韋的股票已飆升至每股2,000美元，使巴菲特成為億萬富翁。
12:29
Warren Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska.
內布拉斯加州奧馬哈的沃倫·巴菲特。
12:33
If you would put $10,000 in 1965 into his company, Berkshire Hathaway, you would have one million today.
如果你在1965年將10,000美元投資到他的公司伯克希爾·哈撒韋，今天你將擁有一百萬美元。
12:41
In general, Buffet's investment strategy is very event-driven.
總體而言，巴菲特的投資策略非常注重事件驅動。
12:45
He typically invests in a company when there was a catalyst, like a lawsuit or a takeover.
他通常在公司有催化劑時進行投資，比如訴訟或收購。
12:52
However, the 80s is also characterized by culture of a corporate raiders and a junk bond financing.
然而，80年代也以企業襲擊者和垃圾債券融資的文化為特徵。
12:59
Despite this environment, Buffet manages to avoid getting caught up in the fray.
盡管在這種環境下，巴菲特設法避免了被卷入混亂。
13:04
Whenever he engages in takeover deals, he always appears as the white knight, the one companies turn to for help in fending off hostile takeovers.
每當他參與收購交易時，他總是以白騎士的形象出現，成為公司尋求幫助以抵禦敵意收購的對象。
13:16
But despite his soaring net worth and fame, Buffet struggles to find attractive investments.
但盡管他的淨資產和名聲飆升，巴菲特仍難以找到有吸引力的投資。
13:22
All things being equal, a high level of optimism will cause things to be priced high relative to their fair value, or what we call the intrinsic value.
在其他條件相同的情況下，高度的樂觀情緒會導致資產價格相對於其公允價值或我們所謂的內在價值來說過高。
13:32
So we have to figure out the intrinsic value.
因此，我們必須計算出內在價值。
13:34
But clearly, in a period of great optimism regarding the future, prices will tend to be high relative to the intrinsic value.
但顯然，在對未來極度樂觀的時期，價格往往會相對於內在價值來說過高。
13:43
And I'd like to buy when the price is below the intrinsic value and sell when it's above.
我希望在價格低於內在價值時買入，並在價格高於內在價值時賣出。
13:50
Under the pressure to outperform, Buffet does the unthinkable.
在績效壓力下，巴菲特做出了令人意想不到的舉動。
13:54
He invests in a Wall Street firm, the Salomon Brothers.
他投資了一家華爾街公司，所羅門兄弟公司。
13:59
Many years back when Warren Buffett was trying to turn around Geichol, Salomon Brothers was the only Wall Street firm willing to underwrite bonds for the company.
So Buffett thought to himself, this could be a good company to invest in.
於是巴菲特心想，這可能是一家值得投資的好公司。
14:13
Salomon Brothers started as a bond trader in 1910 and came to prominence during the roaring 20s.
所羅門兄弟公司始於1910年的債券交易商，並在20世紀20年代的繁榮時期崛起。
14:20
In 1985, the firm made a profit of $500 million, establishing its position as one of Wall Street's most profitable companies.
1985年，該公司盈利5億美元，確立了其作為華爾街最盈利公司之一的地位。
14:30
Warren Buffett sees Salomon Brothers as a great business with an excellent management team in place.
沃倫·巴菲特認為所羅門兄弟公司是一家擁有優秀管理團隊的偉大企業。
14:36
Despite this, he believes the company is overvalued.
盡管如此，他認為該公司被高估了。
14:41
But the Oracle of Omaha still manages to find a way to profit from the situation.
但奧馬哈的先知仍然設法從中獲利。
14:46
He presents Salomon with a proposal.
他向所羅門兄弟公司提出了一項建議。
14:49
If they want his money, they must create a security for him that guarantees a 15% return.
如果他們想要他的錢，他們必須為他創造一種能保證15%回報的證券。
14:56
You see what he did there?
你看到他那招了嗎？
14:57
Buffett was leveraging his brand in exchange for a riskless profit.
巴菲特利用他的品牌換取無風險的利潤。
15:01
He was almost acting like DJ Khaled.
他幾乎像DJ Khaled一樣行事。
15:03
You can use my name before a fee.
你可以在付費前使用我的名字。
15:07
For Salomon Brothers, having Buffett as an investor is a huge boost of confidence for the company's stock.
對於所羅門兄弟公司來說，擁有巴菲特作為投資者是對公司股票的一大信心提振。
15:14
They managed to create a preferred stock that is designed specifically for him.
他們設法創造了一種專門為他設計的優先股。
15:19
This security would generate a 15% return for Buffett in the long run, but with an unlimited upside, should Salomon stocks soar.
這種證券將在長期內為巴菲特帶來15%的回報，但如果所羅門股票飆升，則具有無限的上漲潛力。
15:28
And Buffett buys $700 million of them.
巴菲特購買了7億美元的這種股票。
15:30
I would like to say that Berkshire Hathaway was a large customer of Salomon long before we bought the preferred and that we've had marvelous service over the years.
我想說，伯克希爾·哈撒韋在購買優先股之前很久就是所羅門的大客戶，多年來我們一直享受著極好的服務。
15:41
I think Salomon is going to be around for a long time.
我認為所羅門公司將會存在很長一段時間。
15:45
So in this scenario, the only risk Warren Buffett has is that Salomon Brothers goes bankrupt, but that event is just virtually impossible.
因此，在這種情況下，沃倫·巴菲特唯一的風險就是所羅門兄弟公司破產，但這種事件幾乎是不可能發生的。
15:55
Right?
對吧？
15:57
Good evening.
晚上好。
15:58
The stock market today crashed.
今天股市崩盤了。
16:00
The Dow Jones endostrials, every other major index, breaking records in its plummet downward.
道瓊斯工業指數和其他主要指數都創下了大幅下跌的紀錄。
16:08
On October 19, 1987, the world watches in shock as the stock market crashed in what became known as Black Monday, with billions of dollars evaporated.
1987年10月19日，全世界震驚地看到股市在「黑色星期一」崩盤，數十億美元蒸發。
16:19
Buffett watches as Salomon Brothers began to crumble.
巴菲特看到所羅門兄弟公司開始崩潰。
16:23
For the first time, he started to worry that a bankruptcy of Salomon is becoming likely, but the crash also presents an opportunity for Buffett to invest in a company that he has been watching for a while, Coca-Cola.
For many, many months, we were buying as much Coca-Cola as we could buy, roughly a third of the volume trading, every day for months.
我們連續幾個月大量買入可口可樂的股票，每天大約買入市場交易量的三分之一。
16:48
We were very aggressive in buying into Coca-Cola.
我們在買入可口可樂股票時非常積極。
16:50
Buffett's name and status also allowed him to buy Coca-Cola without disclosing it to anyone for more than a year, because SEC given special privilege to withhold that information.
Warren Buffett continues to leverage his unique brand to get special deals from companies such as Gillette that he obtained a 9% preferred stock.
沃倫·巴菲特繼續利用他的獨特品牌，從像吉列這樣的公司獲得特別交易，他獲得了9%的優先股。
17:13
As the shares of Salomon Brothers make a remarkable recovery following the Black Monday, Warren Buffett thinks the worst is behind him.
在黑色星期一之後，所羅門兄弟公司的股票出現了顯著的反彈，沃倫·巴菲特認為最壞的時期已經過去。
17:21
Little does he know, the storm is far from over.
他不知道的是，風暴遠未結束。
17:47
Salomon Brothers was like a casino.
所羅門兄弟公司就像一個賭場。
17:50
It had one of the largest bond trading departments in the world, but that department was known for its aggressive trading strategies and risk-taking appetite.
它擁有世界上最大的債券交易部門之一，但該部門以其激進的交易策略和冒險胃口而聞名。
18:00
When bond trader Paul Moser is found to have manipulated a treasury auction to make a huge profit, Salomon Brothers reputation is severely damaged.
當債券交易員保羅·莫澤被發現操縱國債拍賣以獲取巨額利潤時，所羅門兄弟公司的聲譽受到了嚴重損害。
18:09
In finance, losing reputation means losing confidence.
在金融界，失去聲譽意味著失去信心。
18:13
Within weeks, the company is on the verge of bankruptcy.
幾週內，公司瀕臨破產。
18:17
Salomon Brothers is under investigation by the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, the SEC, and the Justice Department.
所羅門兄弟公司正接受財政部、聯邦儲備局、證券交易委員會和司法部的調查。
18:24
But more important than the fate of the firm itself is the impact their actions could have on the public trust and on the credibility of the American market worldwide.
但比公司本身的命運更重要的，是他們的行為可能對公眾信任和美國市場在全球的信譽造成的影響。
18:34
And a CEO is desperate to restore the public's trust.
而一位執行長急於重建公眾的信任。
18:38
He's hoping there's one man that can help boost the confidence of the market.
他希望有一個人能幫助提振市場的信心。
18:42
And if he says Salomon Brothers is fine, maybe other investors will follow.
如果他說所羅門兄弟公司沒問題，也許其他投資者也會跟進。
18:48
Buffett is called upon to save Salomon Brothers, but instead of engaging an illegal battle, Buffett takes a completely different approach.
巴菲特被召喚來拯救所羅門兄弟公司，但他沒有參與非法鬥爭，而是採取了完全不同的方法。
18:58
He turns Salomon Brothers inside out, making the company completely transparent to the lawmakers and giving prosecutors access to any and all documents.
他將所羅門兄弟公司徹底改造，使公司對立法者完全透明，並向檢察官提供任何和所有文件。
19:09
I would do whatever was needed to dig out any bit of information about what's happened in the past, and I would do everything I could to make sure that things exactly right in the future.
我會盡一切所能挖掘過去發生的任何資訊，並盡一切努力確保未來一切正確無誤。
19:19
This move is designed to show the public and the government that Salomon Brothers has learned from its mistakes and will be an honest institution going forward.
這一舉措旨在向公眾和政府展示，所羅門兄弟公司已從錯誤中吸取教訓，並將成為一家誠實的機構。
19:28
Buffett knows this may be the only way to prevent Salomon Brothers from going bankrupt, but it's more important that he preserves his own reputation.
巴菲特知道，這可能是防止所羅門兄弟公司破產的唯一方法，但更重要的是，他保住了自己的聲譽。
19:38
And to do that, he needs to be on the side of the people, fighting corporate greed.
為此，他需要站在人民這邊，對抗企業貪婪。
19:47
Buffett's crusade to eradicate any bad apples in the company results in Salomon Brothers being reduced in size, and many employees lose their jobs.
巴菲特清除公司中所有壞分子的十字軍東征，導致所羅門兄弟公司規模縮小，許多員工失業。
19:56
And more importantly, Buffett's investment in Salomon Brothers remains intact.
更重要的是，巴菲特在所羅門兄弟公司的投資仍然完好無損。
20:01
So the Treasury modified its order, and in effect, of course, it was quite an endorsement.
因此，財政部修改了其命令，實際上，這當然是一種認可。
20:06
It was huge.
這是巨大的。
20:08
Buffett has turned a pretty nasty situation to his favor.
巴菲特將一個相當棘手的局面轉變為對自己有利。
20:11
He was able to use the opportunity to reinforce the image that he is the conscience of American finance. With the salvation of Salomon Brothers, Buffett's business soared, making him the richest man in America. And with that momentum, he buys the rest of Geico, as insurance companies continue
to be his biggest cash cows. After all, Buffett's number one role is to never lose money.
而這7億美元的賭注，當時佔伯克希爾哈撒韋整個投資組合的四分之一。
20:38
And the $700 million bet is a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's entire portfolio at the time.
但我們將看到，巴菲特學到了一個寶貴的教訓，這個教訓在2023年仍然對他有所幫助。
20:43
But we'll see that Buffett learns a valuable lesson. One still serving him well in 2023.
翻譯中...
20:49
That's where grapple with Massly offs, inflation, and now, bank runs.
這就是他們與大規模裁員、通貨膨脹，以及現在的銀行擠兌搏鬥的地方。
20:54
Unsurprisingly, Warren Buffett maintains a cautious approach, holding a sizable $130 billion of cash, almost 20% of his total assets.
不出所料，沃倫·巴菲特保持謹慎的態度，持有高達1300億美元的現金，幾乎佔其總資產的20%。
21:04
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Field but technological innovation and globalization, the mid-1990s in America were a time of a great economic growth.
由於技術創新和全球化，1990年代中期的美國是一個經濟大增長的時期。
22:25
For the newly crowned America's richest man, it's not necessarily good news.
對於剛剛被譽為美國首富的人來說，這不一定是好消息。
22:31
The overheated stock market means fewer investment opportunities.
過熱的股市意味著投資機會減少。
22:38
But Buffett ultimately succumbed to the pressure and temptation to invest.
但巴菲特最終還是屈服於投資的壓力和誘惑。
22:43
He acquires a giant insurance company called General Rhee for 22 billion dollars.
他以220億美元收購了一家名為General Re的巨型保險公司。
22:49
He paid for it using Berkshire Hathaway's stock, is something Buffett has never done before.
他使用伯克希爾·哈撒韋的股票來支付，這是巴菲特從未做過的事情。
22:55
In my experience, most deals where equity is offered as the primary source of consideration, seller accepts that because they believe that there's significant upside to that equity, acquire insists on that because they think the marketplace is probably overvaluing the equity.
Buying something with stocks could be interpreted that Warren Buffett thought Berkshire Hathaway was too inflated.
用股票購買東西可能被解讀為沃倫·巴菲特認為伯克希爾·哈撒韋的股價被高估了。
23:22
But buying the company during the height of the duck and bubble is going to be a mistake, the Buffett comes to regret.
但在科技泡沫的高峰期收購這家公司將是一個錯誤，巴菲特後來感到後悔。
23:33
Stocks ended mixed as Coca-Cola joined the list of companies warning that profits would not meet forecasts.
股市收盤時漲跌不一，因為可口可樂加入了警告利潤將無法達到預期的公司名單。
23:40
Earning's growth expectations have just been too high, said Robert Natali, a portfolio manager at Bear Stern's Asset Management Inc.
熊斯登資產管理公司的投資組合經理羅伯特·納塔利表示，盈利增長預期過高。
23:49
Amidst a turmoil of a scandal that Sen Coca-Cola shares plummeting, Warren Buffett's recently acquired company General Rhee also faces a disaster of his own.
In 1999, the company was defrauded out of a staggering $275 million, jeopardizing Buffett's investment and threatening to undermine his reputation as one of the world's most successful investors.
As the boat market charges ahead, producing new millionaires at a breakneck pace, Warren Buffett's legendary investment record appears increasingly ordinary.
隨著船舶市場快速發展，以驚人速度製造新的百萬富翁，沃倫·巴菲特傳奇的投資紀錄顯得越來越平凡。
24:27
To make matters worse, Buffett's personal life takes a dark turn.
更糟的是，巴菲特的個人生活出現了黑暗轉折。
24:32
In early 2000, Buffett finds a tumor in his colon and is hospitalized for surgery.
2000年初，巴菲特發現結腸中有腫瘤，並住院接受手術。
24:39
While Buffett recovers from the surgery, the stock market takes a nose dive, and a duck on bubble finally bursts.
當巴菲特從手術中恢復時，股市暴跌，鴨子泡沫終於破裂。
24:49
After what they are already calling Black Friday, it was the worst single-day point loss ever for both exchanges.
在已經被稱為「黑色星期五」之後，這是兩大交易所有史以來最嚴重的單日點數損失。
24:57
After the duck on bubble, Buffett's reputation revives.
鴨子泡沫破裂後，巴菲特的聲譽得以恢復。
25:01
He's not ready to re-enter the game and start scouting for companies selling at a discount.
他準備重新進入市場，開始尋找以折扣價出售的公司。
25:08
But there's a problem.
但有一個問題。
25:10
Less than two years after the duck on bubble, another major disaster hits American finance industry.
在鴨子泡沫破裂後不到兩年，另一場重大災難襲擊了美國金融業。
25:17
9-11 was particularly bad for Warren Buffett because, guess what, he owned a lot of insurance companies that had to pay billions in damages.
Good evening, everyone. The Dow ends its worst week ever with another triple-digit loss, the NASDAQ fell 47 today. It was another volatile day with huge price swings for the blue chips as investors pondered the implications of President Bush's address to the nation last
night. The 9-11 attacks shook the economy, but Buffett is determined to make a comeback.
9·11襲擊動搖了經濟，但巴菲特決心東山再起。
25:49
He seized an opportunity to buy companies at a steep discount, including the McLean company and Business Wire. As Buffett's investment portfolio began to bounce back by 2005, Buffett is back on the top of the business world again.
It's a status he's achieved through years of business acquisitions and brand building.
這是他通過多年企業收購和品牌建設所取得的地位。
26:11
And soon, his name and his brand will be used to save Wall Street yet again from an impending financial catastrophe.
很快，他的名字和品牌將再次被用來拯救華爾街，避免即將到來的金融災難。
26:25
The most expensive stock in the United States passed an unusual plateau yesterday, as the price for a Class A share of Berkshire Hathaway Inc briefly surpassed $100,000.
In 2006, Warren Buffett's investment in January finally becomes profitable, bouncing back from earlier struggles. But Buffett's sense is that a market is overheated and struggles to find new profitable investments. Terrific game that way because you can
sit there and wait and wait and wait for the right pitch. And there are not many things in life where you get that option. And that's exactly what you're doing now. That's what I do now.
我之前就知道。在期待這次年度會議時，你必須對股東說，我一直在等待正確的投資機會，但我還沒有看到它。
27:03
And I've known it before. In anticipation of this annual meeting, you have to say to the stock host, I've been waiting for the right pitch and I haven't seen it.
That's right. That's right. And some pitch somebody else can hit out of the park, you know, but I don't think I can. That's my problem, but I'm not going to think I can hit a pitch I can't.
But what he doesn't know is that a cataclysmic economic event is just two years away poised to unleash financial destruction on a scale that is unheard of.
但他不知道的是，一場災難性的經濟事件即將在兩年後來臨，準備釋放出前所未聞的金融破壞。
27:36
Everyone else is watching and they're seeing these big negative numbers and their confidence gets affected. Right now we're sitting down 875 points. We've now broken down 10,000.
The dad drums industrial average dropped more than 900 points. As the housing crisis deepens, Wall Street's once impregnable fortress begins to crumble.
道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌超過900點。隨著房地產危機加深，華爾街曾經堅不可摧的堡壘開始崩塌。
27:58
One of the industry's most legendary firms suddenly finds itself on the precipice of ruin.
行業中最傳奇的公司之一突然發現自己處於破產的邊緣。
28:04
Desperate to restore confidence in the market and fend off financial disaster, Goldman Sachs turns to Warren Buffett.
為了恢復市場信心並避免金融災難，高盛求助於沃倫·巴菲特。
28:13
You know, from our standpoint, we've had a lot of cash. We now are seeing things that, you know, give us a chance to use that cash sensibly and this was a $5 billion opportunity directing the boy cash sensibly.
While billing out Goldman Sachs, Buffett makes sure he gives a fibrable deal from the bank.
在為高盛提供資金的同時，巴菲特確保自己從銀行獲得一筆可觀的交易。
28:33
They guarantees him a huge profit once the firm survives the crash.
他們保證他在公司度過危機後獲得巨額利潤。
28:38
He employs the same strategy with a general electric, investing $3 billion in preferred stock that offers unlimited upside and no downside.
他對通用電氣採用了相同的策略，投資30億美元於優先股，這種股票提供無限的上漲空間和沒有下跌風險。
28:46
2008 was one of the best periods of time for Warren Buffett.
2008年是沃倫·巴菲特最好的時期之一。
28:51
He invested in a lot of troubled companies and even in distressed debts.
他投資了許多陷入困境的公司，甚至還投資了不良債務。
28:55
Berkshire Hathaway was so invested that he ran out of cash for the first time ever.
波克夏·哈薩威公司投資如此之多，以至於他第一次用完了現金。
29:03
While the housing crisis of 2008 becomes a thing of the past, the American economy has seen a remarkable resurgence, with the market experiencing one of the longest periods of prosperity.
當2008年的房地產危機成為過去，美國經濟出現了顯著的復甦，市場經歷了最長的繁榮期之一。
29:16
The shares of Berkshire Hathaway have soared to incredible heights.
波克夏·哈薩威公司的股票已經飆升至驚人的高度。
29:23
But now Buffett has a new problem.
但現在巴菲特有了新的問題。
29:26
Warren Buffett has talked in the past or spoken about in the past, the difficulties of Berkshire Hathaway becoming so large.
沃倫·巴菲特過去曾談到過波克夏·哈薩威公司變得如此龐大的困難。
29:34
He says that it's becoming increasingly difficult to find businesses that he can purchase or invest in that will move the needle in a dramatic fashion for Berkshire.
他說，越來越難找到可以購買或投資的企業，能夠對波克夏公司產生顯著影響。
29:43
In 2016, his attention was drawn to an unexpected company, Apple, a long-standing avoided investment for Buffett.
2016年，他的注意力被一家意想不到的公司吸引，蘋果公司，這是巴菲特長期避免投資的公司。
29:52
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has taken in a $1 billion stake in Apple.
沃倫·巴菲特的波克夏·哈薩威公司已經在蘋果公司投資了10億美元。
29:58
According to a regulatory filing report released today, Berkshire held almost 10 million shares of Apple in its first quarter. The company is possibly betting that the tech giant will rebound after a slowdown in iPhone sales.
Despite his large investments in behemoth companies like Apple, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price remained stagnant.
儘管巴菲特在蘋果等巨型公司投入大量資金，波克夏海瑟威的股價仍然停滯不前。
30:17
If you look at Berkshire Hathaway's stock price for the past 15 years until 2022, it behaved very similarly to the S&P 500.
如果你看波克夏海瑟威過去15年直到2022年的股價，它的表現與標準普爾500指數非常相似。
30:26
For the past five years, Buffett has been content to sit on the sightlines and observe the markets unprecedented boom driven by retail investors and cryptocurrencies.
在過去的五年裡，巴菲特樂於坐在場邊觀察市場前所未有的繁榮，這股繁榮由散戶投資者和加密貨幣推動。
30:36
But after years of going through market cycles, Buffett and Munger are convinced that the time will come for the markets of fall.
但經過多年的市場週期後，巴菲特和芒格確信市場下跌的時刻終將到來。
30:48
When we start by bidding adieu to 2022 with the big good riddance made ravages all officially closing out the year with their worst losses since the financial crisis, the NASDAQ down for four straight quarters for the first time since the dot-com bust.
