00:00
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Here's six best ETFs that will make you rich in a recession.
以下是六檔能讓你在經濟衰退中致富的最佳 ETF。
00:05
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The risk of a recession just increased significantly.
經濟衰退的風險剛剛大幅增加。
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How worried should you actually be about a recession?
你實際上應該對經濟衰退擔憂到什麼程度？
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This is very scary because we are in for something worse than a recession.
這非常可怕，因為我們即將面臨比經濟衰退更糟的情況。
00:15
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Now, whether you base your views on the stock market, on news headlines, or
現在，無論你是基於股市、新聞頭條，
00:17
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interesting clickbait YouTube thumbnails, I think we could all agree that everybody is kind of concerned of a
或是有趣的點擊 bait YouTube 縮圖來形成你的觀點，我想我們都同意大家對潛在的經濟衰退都有點擔憂。
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potential recession.
潛在的經濟衰退。
00:23
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It seems like everything is crashing down from the S&P 500 index like VO to the NASDAQ 100
從標準普爾 500 指數（如 VO）到那斯達克 100 指數（如 QQQM），看起來一切都在崩跌。
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index of QQQM.
指數（如 QQQM）。
00:30
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Even safer dividend ETFs are dropping like a rock as well.
就連較安全的高股息 ETF 也正在暴跌。
00:34
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With all this happening, investors are asking the most important question of how
隨著這一切發生，投資者提出了最重要的問題：在經濟衰退期間，
00:36
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should we invest in a recession to at least make money, not lose as much money or hopefully make a ton of money, which
我們該如何投資才能至少賺錢、少賠一點錢，或希望能大賺一筆？
00:42
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is a great question.
這是一個很棒的問題。
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Before we get started, I want to tell you that time in the market always beats timing in the
在我們開始之前，我想告訴你，在市場中待得夠久（Time in the market）總是勝過試圖預測市場進出（Timing the market）。
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market. Now, in a recession especially, you want to always be buying the dip no matter what.
尤其是在經濟衰退期間，無論如何你都想趁低買進（Buying the dip）。
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and dollar cost averaging.
以及定期定額（Dollar cost averaging）。
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And that's what exactly what I've been doing in my own ETF portfolio where you can see it for completely free on
這正是我在自己的 ETF 投資組合中一直在做的事，你可以在 Blossom 上完全免費查看，
00:57
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Blossom, a free investing app.
Blossom 是一款免費的投資 App。
01:00
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So check out the link in the description of this video or in the pinned comment section
所以請查看本影片描述中的連結，或置頂留言區
01:02
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to see all my portfolio buys, my ETF portfolio, and so much more all for free on Blossom and give me a follow on
在 Blossom 上免費查看我所有的投資組合買入、我的 ETF 投資組合以及更多內容，並在 Blossom 上追蹤我
01:08
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Blossom. I will see you there on Blossom.
我會在 Blossom 上與你相見。
01:10
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So, take a deep breath and relax because in this video, I'm going to walk you through six of the best ETFs
所以，深呼吸放輕鬆，因為在這支影片中，我將帶你了解六檔在經濟衰退期間最值得投資的 ETF
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to invest in during a recession to hopefully make so much money before, during, and even after the recession,
希望能在衰退前、衰退期間甚至衰退後賺大錢，
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especially, and your portfolio could be in a more healthy, safe, and more balanced state than it was even before
特別是讓你的投資組合能處於比衰退前更健康、更安全、更平衡的狀態。
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the recession.
27.
01:27
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So, let's get started.
那麼，我們開始吧。
01:28
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Now, growth ETFs and even broad market ETFs aren't the best to invest in and make so much money in a recession
現在，成長型 ETF 甚至大盤 ETF 並不是在衰退期間投資和賺大錢的最佳選擇
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because they are very volatile, very risky, and usually when a recession occurs, these are the first ETFs to go
因為它們波動性很大、風險很高，通常當衰退發生時，這些 ETF 會最先下跌
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down crashing hard and even like a rock, they will drop.
重挫甚至像石頭一樣掉落。
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You'll know what I'm talking about, and you'll probably have experienced that recently.
你會知道我在說什麼，而且你最近可能已經體驗過了。
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However, though, both growth ETFs and even broad market ETFs are great to buy super super
然而，成長型 ETF 甚至大盤 ETF 都非常適合在它們大特價時
01:51
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heavy and load up on on the dip when they are on a fire sale, especially.
大舉逢低買進。
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You can literally make so much money after the recession is over if you just stick
如果你堅持到底，在衰退結束後逢低買進成長型甚至大盤型 ETF
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to your guns and buy growth and even broad market ETFs on the dip.
你真的可以賺大錢。
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Even divided on ETFs as well.
配息型 ETF 也是如此。
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And when you write up the wave and hopefully the market recovers back to all-time highs
當你搭上這波順風車，希望市場很快重返歷史高點
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super super soon and over time you'll be making literally so much money.
隨著時間推移，你真的會賺大錢。
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Some great funds like VO, VTI, VT, and SPLG are some of the best broad market ETFs
像 VO、VTI、VT 和 SPLG 這樣的優質基金都是最好的大盤 ETF 之一
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just to name a few.
僅舉幾個例子。
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Even Kikq, SPMO, SHG and even VGT are some great growth ETFs as well.
甚至 Kikq、SPMO、SHG 和 VGT 也都是很棒的成長型 ETF。
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Okay, so with all that out of the way, let's get started on the ETFs that can actually make you some money in
好，在說明完這些之後，讓我們開始介紹實際能在
02:28
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a recession or at least keep your portfolio more stable, less volatile, and hopefully safer than every other
衰退期間為你賺錢，或至少能讓你的投資組合更穩定、波動更低，並希望比其他
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portfolio in a recession.
所有投資組合在衰退期間都更安全的 ETF。
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First up is a gold ETF.
首先是黃金 ETF。
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A commodity like gold is the safest asset for investors during times of market turmoil, uncertainty,
像黃金這樣的商品，是投資者在市場動盪、不確定性、
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volatility, risk, fear, the whole nine yards.
波動、風險、恐懼等一切混亂時期最安全的資產。
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And then when stocks fall, investors buy gold for safety.
當股票下跌時，投資者會買入黃金以求避險。
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Now, some financial adviserss recommend their clients to have a small portion of gold
現在，一些財務顧問建議客戶將一小部分資金配置在黃金上，
02:51
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to their portfolio for diversification and the long-term benefits of this great commodity.
以實現投資組合多元化，並享有這項優質商品的長期效益。
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Gold is not only a store of value, but also has a history of appreciating in value as well, making
黃金不僅是價值儲存工具，歷史上也有增值的記錄，這使得
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gold not only great for a recession, but also a great investment for the long term as well.
黃金不僅在衰退期間表現出色，對長期投資而言也是一項很棒的投資。
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Gold also has a great diversification benefit being uncorrelated to stocks and even bonds on
黃金還具有極佳的分散風險效益，因為它與股票甚至債券在
03:10
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average. You're basically hedging against uncertainty where you can preserve and even grow your capital with
平均上並不相關。你基本上是在對沖不確定性，透過黃金以像 ETF 這樣
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gold in a very liquid manner like an ETF.
高流動性的方式來保存甚至增長你的資本。
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My favorite gold ETF is IUM followed by B and FGDL.
我最喜歡的黃金 ETF 是 IUM，其次是 B 和 FGDL。
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The isshares gold trust ETF IUM seeks to reflect generally the performance of the price
isshares 黃金信託 ETF IUM 旨在大致反映黃金價格的
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of gold where this ETF is great for diversification and to protect you against inflation.
表現，這支 ETF 非常適合分散風險以及保護你對抗通膨。
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The expense ratio is low at just 0090% and the returns have been absolutely amazing where this ETF
其費用比率很低，僅 0.09%，且報酬率一直非常驚人，這支 ETF
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has been beating the market recently and has done over 16% annually over the last 3 years.
近期表現持續超越大盤，且過去三年年化報酬率超過 16%。
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The second ETF is a dividend or a value focused ETF.
第二種 ETF 是以股息或價值為核心的 ETF。
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A dividend ETF is great for investors in a recession because these funds have highquality
股息型 ETF 對於衰退時期的投資人來說非常棒，因為這些基金擁有高品質的公司，
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companies that make so much money in a recession and even no matter the market cycle.
這些公司在衰退期間依然能賺很多錢，無論市場循環如何皆然。
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And then not only do you get share price appreciation during the recession hopefully, but especially
你不僅有望在衰退期間獲得股價上漲，
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after the recession as well as a sweet dividend payment no matter what happens and your portfolio will have some income
在衰退結束後也能獲得甜美的股息支付，無論發生什麼事，你的投資組合都會有現金流入。
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flowing in as well.
67.
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Dividend ETFs also have a low basis and will be less volatile than the growth or broad market
股息型 ETF 的成本基礎也較低，且波動性會低於成長型或大盤型
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ETFs in the market.
ETF。
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And then with these ETFs, you get a sweet dividend.
而且投資這些 ETF，你能獲得甜美的股息。
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You get more stability, less volatility, safety, and peace of mind because you also have
你能獲得更多穩定性、更低的波動性、安全性以及安心感，因為你也持有
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great companies that will thrive regardless of the market environment.
不論市場環境如何都能蓬勃發展的優質公司。
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My favorite dividend or value focused ETF is going to be SHD followed by VTV and
我最喜歡的股息或價值型 ETF 是 SHD，接著是 VTV 和
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then HDV. SHD tracks an index focused on quality and sustainability of dividends.
HDV。SHD 追蹤一個專注於股息品質與可持續性的指數。
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Think of it like investing in the go of ETF investing especially for dividend investors.
可以把它想像成 ETF 投資的首選，特別是針對股息投資人。
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SHD has a dividend yield of around 4% with an expense ratio as well of exactly 06%.
SHD 的股息殖利率約為 4%，費用率也正好是 0.06%。
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The top sectors in this fund is mainly energy followed by consumer defensive, healthcare and
這檔基金的前幾大類股主要是能源，其次是民生必需品、醫療保健和
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industrials with the top holdings being recession proof stocks like Konokco Phillips Chevron Coca-Cola Bristol
工業，其前幾大持股包含抗衰退的股票，例如 Konokco Phillips、Chevron、Coca-Cola、Bristol
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Myers and Altria Group.
Myers 和 Altria Group。
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What makes this ETF so unique is that the fact that it actually grew its dividend every single
這檔 ETF 如此獨特的原因在於，它實際上每年都在增加股息，每一季都...
05:00
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year. Even during the latest stock market crash in 2020, showing the resilience, strength, and just overall
年。即使在2020年最近一次的股市崩盤中，也展現了這款令人驚豔的ETF在任何市場環境下，甚至在經濟衰退中的韌性、實力以及整體的卓越表現。
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greatness of this amazing ETF in any market environment, even a recession, the performance of SHD is absolutely
SHD的表現絕對令人難以置信，尤其是作為一檔股息ETF，它在過去5年內的年化報酬率超過17%，
05:12
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incredible, especially for a dividend ETF, where this ETF has returned over 17% annually over the last 5 years and
甚至在過去10年內也超過了11%。
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even over 11% over the last decade.
接下來要介紹的ETF絕對是一匹黑馬，那就是橋水基金（Bridgewater）的全天候（All Weather）ETF。
05:22
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The next ETF is going to be an absolute sleeper, and that's Bridgewwater's All
在我看來，這檔ETF特別適合接近退休的年長投資者，以及風險承受度低、想要尋找我認為除了債券之外最安全的ETF的投資者，但我們稍後會再討論債券。
05:25
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Weather ETF.
你馬上就會明白為什麼。
05:27
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Now, in my opinion, this ETF is especially the best for older investors near retirement, low-risk
橋水聯合基金（Bridgewater Associates）的首席投資長兼億萬富翁對沖基金經理雷‧達里歐（Ray Dalio），利用這項投資組合策略在每一個市場週期，甚至是經濟衰退中，為客戶創造了驚人的財富。
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investors who want the safest ETF in my opinion besides bonds, but we'll get to that in a second.
說真的。
05:38
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And you'll see why right now.
我沒開玩笑。
05:39
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Ray Dalio, the CIO and billionaire hedge fun manager of Bridgewwater Associates, made its
它能抵禦通貨膨脹、利率風險、經濟衰退和股市崩盤。
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clients a fortune, an absolute fortune, with this portfolio strategy in every market cycle, even a recession.
這項投資組合策略是貨真價實的。
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Seriously.
以前，這項投資組合策略只有超級富豪才能接觸到，
05:52
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I'm not kidding.
因為要投資對沖基金，你必須擁有極高的淨資產。
05:52
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from inflation, from interest rate risk, from recession, stock market crash.
但你很幸運，現在它已經以一檔名為 ALLW 的 ETF 形式，由道富環球投資管理（State Street Global Advisors）提供。
05:57
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This portfolio strategy is the real deal.
現在，這裡有一些關於這項投資組合策略的背景資訊，說明它為何如此出色、令人驚豔，以及為何它在經濟衰退中同樣表現優異。
05:59
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Now, this portfolio strategy was only available to the ultra wealthy and the ultra rich
這個投資組合策略過去只有超級富豪才能使用
06:02
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because to invest in hedge fun, you have to have a super high net worth.
因為要投資避險基金，你必須擁有極高的淨資產。
06:07
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But lucky you, now it's available in an ETF called ALLW by State Street Global
但你很幸運，現在它已透過道富環球投資管理（State Street Global Advisors）推出的名為 ALLW 的 ETF 開放給大眾。
06:10
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Advisors. Now, here's some background on this portfolio strategy on why it's great and why it's amazing and why it's
這裡有一些關於這個投資組合策略的背景說明，解釋它為何出色、為何令人驚豔，以及為何
06:16
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great for a recession as well.
它非常適合在經濟衰退時使用。
06:19
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Created back in 1996, Dalio's all-weather portfolio isn't flashy.
達里奧的全天候投資組合創立於1996年，並不華麗。
06:23
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It's not sexy.
它不吸引人。
06:23
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It's methodical and built for resilience.
它有條不紊，是為了韌性而打造。
06:25
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The approach hinges on risk management through asset diversification.
這個方法的核心是透過資產多元化來管理風險。
06:29
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Designed to perform well in any market environment, boom, bust inflation or deflation as well.
設計目的是在任何市場環境中表現良好，無論是繁榮、衰退、通膨或通縮。
06:34
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Okay, so we have 30% stocks both from international and US stocks as well primarily for growth in our portfolio,
好的，所以我們有30%的股票，包括國際和美國股票，主要是為了投資組合的成長，
06:40
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but the allocation is deliberately kept low to limit volatility.
但配置刻意保持在低水位以限制波動性。
06:45
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We got 40% long-term bonds and then 15% intermediate bonds for stability and
我們有40%的長期債券，然後15%的中期債券，用於穩定性和
06:48
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just overall stability in our portfolio.
整體投資組合的穩定。
06:51
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We then have a 7.5% inflation hedge by adding gold.
接著我們有7.5%的通膨對沖，透過持有黃金。
06:55
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And then lastly, 7.5% commodities for diversification to guard against inflationary spikes.
最後，7.5%的商品用於多元化，以防禦通膨飆升。
07:01
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Now, it should be noted that this ETF is great for diversification and for anybody
現在，應該注意的是，這支ETF非常適合多元化，適合任何人
07:04
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young old beginner experienced but especially in my opinion for more like low-risk safer investors.
不論年輕年長、新手或有經驗，但我認為特別適合風險承受度較低、尋求安全的投資人。
07:12
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But you got everything here.
但你在這裡擁有一切。
07:13
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You got bonds, you got commodities, you got global stocks, and you also have US stocks as well.
你有債券、有商品、有全球股票，也有美國股票。
07:20
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You have the whole pie in the whole 9 yards.
你擁有完整的配置，一應俱全。
07:20
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ALW's expense ratio is on the higher side of things of 0.85%.
ALW的費用率偏高，為0.85%。
07:25
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But it's way cheaper than if Ray Dolly were to do himself.
但這比雷．達里奧自己操作要便宜得多。
07:28
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Seriously, the fourth ETF is going to be a bond ETF.
說真的，第四支ETF將會是一支債券ETF。
07:33
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Bonds, of course, they're in this list.
債券，當然，它們也在這個清單中。
07:38
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They're safe and reliable and safe.
它們安全、可靠且穩健。
07:39
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Bonds are a low correlation asset to stocks and they're also a flight to safety for
債券與股票的相關性低，同時也是投資人的避險工具，
07:42
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investors because they're backed by the US government, making them safe, stable, and hopefully a low-risk asset for
因為有美國政府做擔保，使其安全、穩定，並希望在經濟衰退期間成為投資人的低風險資產，
07:48
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investors in a recession because it's a bond.
毕竟它是一種債券。
07:52
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Now, my favorite type of bond is going to be short-term bonds versus long-term bonds.
我最喜歡的債券類型是短期債券，而非長期債券。
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Just my opinion, it's a better risk-to-reward ratio, but that's my opinion.
這只是我的個人觀點，它的風險報酬比更好，但這是我個人的看法。
08:01
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Now, bonds are great if you are a low-risk investor.
如果你是低風險投資人，債券非常棒。
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Maybe you have insane recession fears.
也許你對經濟衰退有極大的擔憂。
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you want to load up on cash and just stockpile cash or you're in your retirement years and just
你想大量持有現金或囤積現金，或者你已屆退休年齡，只想
08:09
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want a predictable stream of income, then bonds could be just for you.
擁有可預期的現金流，那麼債券可能非常適合你。
08:15
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My favorite bond ETF is going to be VIL, followed by ESG and BIL.
我最喜歡的債券 ETF 是 VIL，其次是 ESG 和 BIL。
08:19
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Vill is a new Vanguard ETF with a low expense ratio of 07% and a current bond yield of 4.2%
Vill 是 Vanguard 的新型 ETF，費用比率低至 0.07%，目前的債券收益率為 4.2%，
08:25
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which is great in this market cycle.
在目前的市場循環中非常出色。
08:28
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Overall, bonds are great.
總體而言，債券很棒。
08:31
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They're a sleeper so underrated in a recession.
在經濟衰退期間，它們是被嚴重低估的潛力股。
08:32
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Literally, people are sleeping on bonds right now.
現在大家真的都忽略了債券。
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They offer downside protection, voluntary reduction, stability, peace of mind.
它們提供下跌保護、自願減持、穩定性和內心平靜。
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You can sleep at night holding bonds and a great addition in a well diversified portfolio
持有債券讓你晚上能安心入睡，在經濟衰退期間，
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in a recession as well.
它也是多元化投資組合中的絕佳補充。
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The fifth ETF is going to be a consumer staples ETF.
第五個 ETF 將是消費必需品 ETF。
08:51
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with a consumer staples ETF.
持有一檔消費必需品類股 ETF。
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It's a great ETF to own because consumers literally won't stop buying their favorite everyday
這是一檔非常值得持有的 ETF，因為消費者基本上不會停止購買他們最愛的日常
08:55
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products and also it's non-yclical because consumers can't stop buying their favorite consumer staples
用品，而且它屬於非景氣循環類股，因為消費者無法停止購買他們最愛的消費必需品，
09:01
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products, making it a strong and stable investment, especially in a recession.
讓它成為一項強勁且穩定的投資，尤其是在經濟衰退期間。
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This ETF category is also great because it's considered to be defensive and also lowly correlated to the overall market.
這類 ETF 也很棒，因為它被視為防禦型且與整體市場的相關性很低。
09:11
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My favorite consumer staples ETF is going to be VDC followed by XLP.
我最喜歡的消費必需品 ETF 是 VDC，其次是 XLP。
09:18
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VDC has 103 companies that provide direct to consumer products that are based on
VDC 持有 103 家公司，這些公司提供直接面向消費者的產品，這些產品基於
09:20
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consumer spending habits in the consumer discretionary sector from restaurants to retail stores.
消費者在非必需消費品領域的支出習慣，從餐廳到零售店都有。
09:25
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Some of its top holdings are ones that you know and love and probably go to on an everyday basis like
它的一些主要持股是你熟知且熱愛，甚至可能每天都會去的公司，例如
09:29
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Costco, Walmart, Proctor and Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Philip Morris International.
Costco、Walmart、Proctor and Gamble（寶僑）、Coca-Cola（可口可樂）、PepsiCo（百事公司）和 Philip Morris International（菲利普莫里斯國際）。
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The dividend yield is also around 2.4% with a low expense ratio as well of exactly 09%.
其股息殖利率約為 2.4%，費用率也非常低，正好是 0.09%。
09:41
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The returns of this sector have also been solid of around 8% annually over the
該領域的報酬率也很穩健，過去十年
09:44
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last decade and over 12% annually over the last 5 years making this a very good recession proof investment and even
每年約為 8%，過去五年每年超過 12%，讓它成為一項非常好的抗衰退投資，甚至
09:50
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could also be great for long-term investing as well.
也非常適合長期投資。
09:54
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The sixth ETF is going to be a utilities ETF.
第六檔 ETF 將是公用事業類股 ETF。
09:57
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Now demand for utilities like water and electricity will always be super sticky even in a
像水和電這樣的公用事業需求將永遠非常穩定，即使在
10:01
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recession and the last expense people will cut in a recession no matter what happens making it a great investment and
經濟衰退期間也是如此，而且無論發生什麼事，這都是人們在衰退中最不會削減的支出，讓它成為一項很棒的投資，同時
10:08
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also a cash flow heavy investment for the companies in utilities sector.
對公用事業領域的公司來說，也是一項現金流充沛的投資。
10:13
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My favorite utilities ETF is going to be XLU followed by FUTY with 31 total
我最喜歡的公用事業 ETF 是 XLU，其次是 FUTY，總共持有
10:17
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holdings. Some of its top stocks are Next Era Energy, Southern Company, Duke Energy, Constellation Energy and America
31 檔。其主要持股包括 Next Era Energy（新時代能源）、Southern Company（南方公司）、Duke Energy（杜克能源）、Constellation Energy（星座能源）和 America（此處原文不完整，應為 American Electric Power 或其他以 America 開頭的公司名稱）
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Electric Power.
電力股（Electric Power）。
10:25
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The dividend yield is also solid at around 3% with a low expense ratio as well of exactly 0.08%.
其股息殖利率也相當穩健，約為 3%，且費用比率也很低，正好是 0.08%。
10:31
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The returns of this sector have been solid of around 9% annually over the last decade and over 10% annually over
該板塊的報酬率一直很穩健，過去十年平均每年約 9%，而過去五年
10:37
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the last 5 years.
則平均每年超過 10%。
10:39
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Now, some ETFs I would not recommend you buy in a recession are both inverse ETFs and leverage ETFs
現在，有些 ETF 我不建議你在經濟衰退時買進，那就是反向 ETF 和槓桿 ETF，
10:44
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because you are not him.
因為你不是「他」（那種能精準預測市場的高手）。
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I'm not him either, but hey, I've been dollar cost averaging in this market.
我也不是「他」，但嘿，我一直在這波市場中執行定期定額（dollar cost averaging）。
10:51
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buying the dip, taking a deep breath, relaxing, chilling, relaxing, staying to my
趁低點買進、深呼吸、放鬆、保持冷靜、按照我的
10:55
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portfolio in my plan because I've made some money over the last day in the market.
投資組合與計畫執行，因為我在過去幾天的市場中已經賺了一些錢。
10:58
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And you should hopefully as well if you just stay long-term investing.
只要你堅持長期投資，希望你也一樣。
11:01
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And don't freak out and panic because everything is going to be okay.
不要驚慌失措，因為一切都會好轉的。
11:06
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If you guys like this video, please give it a like because this cute puppy did.
如果你們喜歡這支影片，請幫忙按個讚，因為這隻可愛的小狗也按了。
11:10
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Now, if the stock market is freaking you out in a recession, check out this video
如果經濟衰退期間股市讓你感到恐慌，請點選右邊這支影片
11:12
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right here on how to survive investing in ETFs in a recession or a stock market crash.
觀看如何在經濟衰退或股市崩盤中利用 ETF 投資生存下來。
11:17
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I love you guys so much.
我非常愛你們。
11:21
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Take it easy.
放輕鬆。
11:22
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crushing the stock market.
征服股市。
