tariffs, AI hype, recession fears, international versus US, tech stock concentration.
關稅、人工智慧炒作、衰退擔憂、國際與美國之爭、科技股集中度。
00:07
The financial world is noisy right now.
當前的金融世界充滿雜音。
00:09
If you're like most people, you're probably wondering, what should I actually do with my money?
如果您像大多數人一樣，可能正在思考，我到底該如何處理我的資金？
00:13
How should I invest my money?
我該如何投資？
00:15
How do I mitigate all these different risks?
我該如何降低這些不同的風險？
00:17
Well, what if I was to tell you that the best response to all this chaos is not more complexity, more funds, but actually more simplicity, specifically a simple investment strategy.
A strategy so simple that even a fourth grader can understand.
這個策略非常簡單，即使是小學四年級學生也能理解。
00:32
And even better, a strategy that is so effective, that it has been quite the outperforming the majority of professional investors for decades.
更棒的是，這個策略非常有效，幾十年來的表現大幅超越了大多數專業投資者。
00:40
It is called the classic three fund portfolio, one of the most popular DIY investment strategies in the market.
它被稱為經典的三基金投資組合，是市面上最受歡迎的 DIY 投資策略之一。
00:46
And if you stick with me for the next few minutes, I want to show you exactly what it is, why it works so well, and how you can build one for yourself today.
But with this one fund, you own a piece of all of them.
但有了這一檔基金，您就等於持有了所有這些公司的一小部分。
01:34
Fund number two, a total international stock market index fund.
第二支基金，是全球國際股市指數基金。
01:38
This fund holds companies from the rest of the world, excluding the United States.
這支基金持有的是美國以外的世界各國公司。
01:42
We're talking about 8,000 companies across developed countries like Japan, Germany, and the UK, as well as emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil.
我們談的是涵蓋日本、德國、英國等已開發國家，以及中國、印度、巴西等新興市場，總共八千家公司。
01:50
Companies like Samsung, Nestle, and Taiwan's semiconductor.
像三星、雀巢，以及台灣的台積電等公司。
01:54
Again, with another one fund, you have the exposure to the entire global economy outside the US.
再一次，只要再持有一支基金，你就能擁有美國以外的全球經濟曝險。
02:00
Fund number three, a total US bond market index fund.
第三支基金，是美國總體債券市場指數基金。
02:04
This fund holds over 10,000 investment grade bonds, US Trejories, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities.
這支基金持有超過一萬檔投資等級債券，包括美國公債、公司債、抵押貸款支持證券。
02:11
This is a stabilizing force in your portfolio.
這是投資組合中的穩定力量。
02:13
And when you combine these three funds, you essentially own the entire investable world.
當你把這三支基金結合起來，你基本上就擁有了全世界所有可投資的標的。
02:17
Stocks and bonds, domestic and international, large companies and small companies develop markets and emerging markets all via three simple funds.
股票與債券、國內與國際、大型股與小型股、已開發市場與新興市場，全部都透過三支簡單的基金搞定。
02:27
This strategy was popularized by the Bogleheads, a community of passionate followers of Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard.
這個策略是由波格爾頭族（Bogleheads）推廣開來的，他們是一群 Vanguard 創辦人 Jack Bogle 的忠實追隨者社群。
02:34
And Jack Bogle is famous for saying, Simplicity is the master key to financial success, and the three fund portfolio is that simplicity in action.
Jack Bogle 有句名言：「簡單是財務成功的萬能鑰匙」，而三基金投資組合正是簡單哲學的實踐。
02:43
Now you might be thinking, this sounds way too simple.
現在你可能會想，這聽起來也太簡單了吧。
02:46
How can three funds possibly be enough?
三支基金怎麼可能夠用？
02:48
Last time I talked to my financial advisor, he proposed a 45 fund portfolio that included emerging markets, small cap value, international REITs, frontier markets, commodities feature, a tactical allocation sleeve, and something called the alternative alpha strategies.
That means the highly paid fund managers with their fancy degrees and sophisticated research teams fail to beat a simple index fund, the vast majority of the time.
Individual investors who try to pick stocks or time the market consistently underperform as well, most often way worse.
試圖挑選股票或進出場的散戶投資人，表現也同樣持續落後，而且通常落後得更多。
04:09
Thus, the nice aspect of investing via index funds is that you're not trying to beat the market.
因此，透過指數型基金進行投資的好處在於，你並不是在試圖打敗市場。
04:14
You're not trying to ask smart other investors.
你不是在試圖比其他投資人更聰明。
04:16
No, you're just capturing the entire market returns and over the long run, this will make you the smartest investor out there.
不，你只是在獲取整個市場的報酬，而長期下來，這會讓你成為最聰明的投資人。
04:22
The number two key advantage of the three fund portfolio.
三基金投資組合的第二個關鍵優勢。
04:25
Because it is built with index funds, self cleansing is naturally built into the model.
因為它是用指數型基金建立的，所以模型中自然內建了自我清理的機制。
04:30
Now, what do I mean by self cleansing?
現在，所謂的自我清理是什麼意思？
04:33
It is exactly as the term describes.
正如其名所示。
04:35
Within an index, when a company starts underperforming, maybe their earnings tank, they fall out of favor with the market, or worse, they go out of business, they eventually get kicked out of the index automatically.
And when a new company rises up, grows large enough, and meets the criteria, they get added into it.
而當一家新公司崛起，成長得足夠大，並符合標準時，他們就會被納入其中。
04:51
You don't have to do anything.
你什麼都不用做。
04:53
You don't have to watch CNBC, read earnings report, or guess which stocks to sell.
你不需要看 CNBC，閱讀財報，或猜測要賣哪支股票。
04:58
The index does the housekeeping for you.
指數會為你打理好一切。
05:00
Take the S&P 500 as an example.
以標準普爾 500 指數為例。
05:02
It is reviewed and rebalanced on a regular schedule, typically quarterly, and its lineup of 500 leading US companies has churned over significantly since the index was created in 1957.
Apple, Tesla, and Vidya, they were added to the index as they grew.
蘋果（Apple）、特斯拉（Tesla）、輝達（Nvidia），他們在成長過程中被納入指數。
05:30
Your index fund is constantly evolving to reflect the current economy.
你的指數基金會不斷演變，以反映當前的經濟狀況。
05:34
The losers get kicked out, the winners get added, and again, the best part, you don't have to do anything.
失敗者被踢出，贏家被納入，再次強調，最棒的部分是，你什麼都不用做。
05:40
The number three key advantage of the three-phone portfolio.
這是三基金投資組合的第三個關鍵優勢。
05:43
It provides global diversification.
它提供全球多元化。
05:45
Because you're virtually owning every single company in the United States, as well as a good representation of the non-US companies, you have diversification across the entire world.
因為你實際上擁有了美國的每一家公司，以及非美國公司的良好代表性，你擁有了跨越全世界的多元化。
05:55
Very powerful if you think about it.
仔細想想，這非常強大。
05:57
Two simple funds and instant global diversification.
兩個簡單的基金，就能實現即時的全球多元化。
06:00
Now, I know what some of you might be thinking.
現在，我知道你們有些人可能在想什麼。
06:02
Why bother with international stocks at all?
為什麼要麻煩投資國際股票呢？
06:05
US stocks have outperformed international stocks for the past 15 years.
過去15年，美股的表現都優於國際股票。
06:09
Why would I want to own under-performers?
我為什麼要持有表現較差的標的呢？
06:11
I get it.
我懂你的意思。
06:12
But that is if you're only looking at short-term history.
但這只是如果你只看短期歷史的話。
06:14
Let's take our time machine and go back a little further.
讓我們坐上時光機，回到更早之前看看。
06:17
If you were to look back to 2000s, roughly 2000-2009, international stocks actually outpace US stocks for about a decade.
如果你回顧2000年代，大約是2000到2009年，國際股票其實領先了美股將近十年。
06:25
And there happened other long stretches like the 1980s when Japan's market boomed, where non-US markets led away.
而且在其他時期，像是1980年代日本市場蓬勃發展時，非美國市場也曾長期領先。
06:32
That's exactly why broad global diversification matters.
這正是為什麼廣泛的全球多元化如此重要。
06:36
Nobody knows which region where I'll perform over the next 10 or 20 years.
沒人知道未來10年或20年，哪個地區會表現最好。
06:40
Not me, not the smartest economists, and especially not anyone on YouTube, despite them telling you they know.
不是我，不是最聰明的經濟學家，尤其是YouTube上的任何人，儘管他們告訴你他們知道。
06:46
No one knows.
沒人知道。
06:47
That's what you want to do.
這才是你該做的事。
06:48
If you want to mitigate your risk on all sides, it's to diversify as much as possible.
如果你想降低各方風險，就是要盡可能分散投資。
06:53
We can't predict which region it will win, but you can position yourself to come out as a winner no matter what happens.
我們無法預測哪個地區會勝出，但你可以讓自己無論發生什麼事，都能成為贏家。
06:58
And a three-phone portfolio gives you that coverage.
而三基金投資組合就能給你這種保障。
07:02
However, here's the thing about everything I just shared.
然而，關於我剛剛分享的一切，有個重點。
07:04
The three-phone portfolio is beautifully simple in concept.
三基金投資組合在概念上非常簡單優美。
07:08
Three funds, global diversification, set it and forget it.
三個基金，全球分散，設定好就不用管了。
07:11
But what about when it comes time to actual implementation?
但實際執行時又該怎麼做呢？
07:14
And that is where things get a bit more complicated.
這就是事情變得比較複雜的地方。
07:17
What percentage should go to international versus US?
國際與美國市場的配置比例應該是多少？
07:20
How do I factor in my age and risk tolerance?
我該如何將年齡與風險承受度納入考量？
07:22
Should the bonds be in my 401k or my taxable count?
債券應該放在我的 401k 還是應稅帳戶？
07:26
How about my spouse's account?
我配偶的帳戶該怎麼辦？
07:27
Do we coordinate or treat them separately?
我們應該協調配置還是分開處理？
07:29
In which specific funds do I actually buy at Fidelity versus Vanguard versus Schwab?
我應該在富達、先鋒還是嘉信理財，購買哪些特定基金？
07:34
These are the questions that keep people stuck.
這些就是讓人卡關的問題。
07:36
And I see it constantly.
我經常看到這種情況。
07:37
People who intellectually understand the strategy, but spend months or even years not actually implementing it because the details feel overwhelming.
有些人雖然在理智上理解這個策略，卻因為細節感覺太複雜，而花上數月甚至數年都沒有實際執行。
07:45
And that's exactly why I created the financial tortoise community.
這正是我創立「財經慢龜」社群的原因。
07:48
A private membership community for serious professionals where we take these proven strategies and turn them into action.
這是一個為認真專業人士設立的私人會員社群，我們在這裡將這些經過驗證的策略轉化為行動。
07:54
Inside the community, you get direct access to me through one-on-one coaching sessions where we can map out exactly how to structure your three-phone portfolio across all your accounts.
You'll also get step-by-step courses, access to premium tools, monthly live Q&A calls, a private forum of dedicated professionals on the same wealth-building journey as you, and many more.
I'll have the link in the description below so you don't miss out.
我會在下方的描述中附上連結，以免你錯過。
08:29
All right, with that, let's keep going.
好的，說到這裡，我們繼續往下看。
08:30
The number four key advantage of the three-phone portfolio.
三電話投資組合的第四個關鍵優勢。
08:33
It includes bonds.
它包含了債券。
08:35
So what are bonds?
那麼，債券究竟是什麼？
08:36
With bonds, you're essentially lending money to a government or a corporation.
買進債券，本質上就是借錢給政府或企業。
08:40
And in return, they pay you interest and return your principal at maturity.
作為回報，他們會支付利息，並在到期時歸還你的本金。
08:45
Think of it as an IOU that pays you for the loan.
你可以把它想像成一張會支付利息的借據。
08:47
Now, there are literally a million ways you can buy bonds.
其實，購買債券的方式有上百萬種。
08:50
Individual Treasuries, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, bond ladders, tips, I bonds, high yield bonds, international bonds, etc.
個別公債、公司債、市政債、債券階梯、通膨保值債券、儲蓄債券、高收益債券、國際債券等等。
08:59
But as you can see here, you can get overwhelming pretty fast.
但正如你所見，這很快就會讓人感到不知所措。
09:02
So what is great about the three-phone portfolio?
那麼，「三支基金投資組合」的優點是什麼？
09:04
It recommends one simple total bond market index fund.
它建議投資一檔簡單的整體債券市場指數基金。
09:08
A bond fund that holds over 10,000 individual bonds.
這是一檔持有超過 10,000 張個別債券的債券基金。
09:12
U.S. Treasury bonds backed by the government.
包含由政府背書的美國公債。
09:14
Corporate bonds from companies like Apple and Johnson Johnson and mortgage-backed securities, all in one fund.
以及像 Apple 和 Johnson & Johnson 這類公司的公司債與抵押貸款支持證券，全都包含在這一檔基金裡。
09:21
You get the full benefit of bonds without all the complexity.
你能獲得債券的完整效益，卻不必面對所有的複雜性。
09:24
No need to research individual issuers or worry about timing and defaults.
不需要研究個別發行者，也不必擔心進場時機或違約問題。
09:28
But you might be asking, what do I even need bonds in the first place?
但你可能會問，我到底為什麼需要投資債券？
09:32
Great question.
問得好。
09:33
Let me give you two crucial things bonds can actually do for your portfolio.
讓我告訴你債券能為你的投資組合帶來的兩大關鍵作用。
09:37
First, they reduce volatility and provide stability during market crashes.
第一，它們能降低波動性，並在市場崩跌時提供穩定度。
09:41
Stocks can drop by 30 to 40 percent in a bad year.
在熊市時，股票可能會下跌 30% 到 40%。
09:44
Bonds are much more stable.
債券的表現則穩定得多。
09:45
When stocks tank, investors often flee to the safety of bonds, which means bonds can hold steady or even rise when stocks collapse.
當股票暴跌時，投資人通常會逃向債券的安全避風港，這意味著當股票崩盤時，債券可以保持穩定甚至上漲。
09:53
They don't move in lockstep with stocks and that's the diversification benefit.
它們的走勢與股票並非完全同步，這就是分散風險的好處。
09:57
When you add bonds to your portfolio, you cushion the fall.
當你將債券加入投資組合時，你便為下跌提供了緩衝。
10:00
And two, and I think this is actually a bigger one, bonds reduce a temptation to panic sell.
第二點，我認為這其實更重要，那就是債券能降低恐慌性拋售的誘惑。
10:05
A hundred percent stock portfolio dropping 40 percent is gut-wrenching.
一個百分之百股票的投資組合下跌 40% 會讓人心驚膽戰。
10:09
A 80-20 portfolio might only drop by 20 to 25 percent.
一個 80-20 的投資組合可能只會下跌 20% 到 25%。
10:12
It's much easier to say the course when the right is smoother.
當航行過程更平穩時，堅持到底會容易得多。
10:16
Yes, the more bond you hold, you might be missing out on the upside that the stock market provides.
是的，你持有的債券越多，可能就越會錯過股市帶來的上漲收益。
10:21
However, you're trading some upside for stability and peace of mind.
然而，你是在用部分的上漲潛力來換取穩定和內心的平靜。
10:25
And the three-form portfolio naturally builds that into its design.
而三合一投資組合（three-form portfolio）的設計自然就包含了這一點。
10:28
The number five key advantage of the three-form portfolio.
三合一投資組合的第五大優勢。
10:31
You can build it with rock bottom cost.
你可以用極低的成本來建立它。
10:33
The expense ratios on these index funds are amazingly low.
這些指數基金的費用比率低得驚人。
10:37
We're talking about 0.03 percent to 0.04 percent for US stock funds.
美國股票基金的費用大約在 0.03% 到 0.04% 之間。
10:41
And even international funds are only about 0.06 percent to 0.11 percent.
即使是國際基金也大約只有 0.06% 到 0.11%。
10:47
Compare that to actively managed funds charging 1 percent or more.
相比之下，主動型基金的收費則在 1% 或以上。
10:51
Or financial advisors charging 1 to 2 percent of your assets annually.
或是理財顧問每年收取你 1% 到 2% 的資產管理費。
10:55
Over 30 years, that fee difference can cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars because lower fees mean more of your money staying invested and compounding.
Every dollar you save in fees is a dollar working for you instead of someone else.
你在費用上節省的每一塊錢，都是在為你工作，而不是為別人工作。
11:07
The number six key advantage of the three-form portfolio.
三合一投資組合的第六大優勢。
11:10
It is as simple as you can get.
這非常簡單明瞭。
11:13
Not only does simplicity allow you to actually understand what you're invested in, it also removes the opportunity for mistakes.
簡單不僅能讓你真正了解自己的投資標的，還能減少犯錯的機會。
11:19
In the world of investing, the biggest risk often is in what the market does.
在投資世界裡，最大的風險往往來自市場的波動。
11:23
It is what you do.
但真正的風險在於你的行為。
11:25
Behavior studies show that the average investor tend to earn several percentage points less than the broad US stock index, not because of their portfolio design, but largely because of their behavior.
Buying high, selling low, chasing performance, and fleeing to cash at the worst times.
高買低賣、追逐績效，以及在最糟糕的時機逃向現金。
11:41
More with the three-form portfolio, there's not much to tinker with in the first place.
對於三基金投資組合來說，本來就沒什麼需要頻繁調整的地方。
11:45
There is no temptation to rotate sectors or pick winning funds.
沒有誘惑去輪換類股或挑選冠軍基金。
11:48
You just buy, hold, and rebalance once a year.
你只需要買進、持有，並每年再平衡一次。
11:51
Or maybe even once every few years.
甚至每隔幾年再平衡一次也可以。
11:53
Boring, of course.
當然，這很無聊。
11:55
But boring is what actually builds wealth over the long run.
但無聊正是長期真正累積財富的關鍵。
11:58
The number seven key advantage of the three-form portfolio.
三基金投資組合的第七大優勢。
12:01
It is also fully customizable.
它也是完全可客製化的。
12:03
However, just because it's boring doesn't mean there isn't anything you can do.
然而，雖然它很無聊，但這並不意味著你什麼都不能做。
12:07
There are dials.
它有調節鈕。
12:09
Of course, dummy-proof dials.
當然是傻瓜也能操作的調節鈕。
12:10
You can churn.
你可以進行調整。
12:11
To make this three-form portfolio, reflect your desire and your life stage.
讓這個三基金投資組合反映你的意願和人生階段。
12:15
Young and aggressive with decades ahead of you, you can go heavier on stocks.
如果你年輕且積極，還有幾十年的投資時間，你可以提高股票的比重。
12:19
Feel more bullish about the US stock market versus international?
對美國股市比對國際市場更有信心？
12:22
You can dial up your US allocation and reduce your international allocation.
你可以增加美國股票的配置比例，並減少國際股票的配置比例。
12:26
Approach on retirement and want to dial back your risk profile?
即將退休，想要降低風險配置？
12:30
Dial up the bonds.
增加債券的配置比例。
12:31
Bottom line, this three-form portfolio is as simple and as dummy-proof as it can get, but it still provides a level of flexibility needed for most DIY investors out there.
If you're with Fidelity, for US stocks, Fidelity, Total Market Index Fund, AKA, FSKAX, or if you want zero fees, Fidelity, Zero, Total Market Index Fund, AKA, FZROX.
如果你是 Fidelity 的客戶，美國股票部分，選擇 Fidelity Total Market Index Fund，簡稱 FSKAX，或者如果你想零手續費，選擇 Fidelity Zero Total Market Index Fund，簡稱 FZROX。
13:45
Literally 0% expense ratio.
費用比率真的是 0%。
13:47
But know that FZROX, because it is a proprietary Fidelity fund, you can transfer it in kind to another brokerage.
但請注意，FZROX 是 Fidelity 的專有基金，你無法直接轉移到其他經紀商帳戶。
13:55
You have to sell or exchange it first.
你必須先賣出或轉換它。
13:56
For international stocks, Fidelity, Total International Index Fund, AKA, FTIHX.
國際股票部分，選擇 Fidelity Total International Index Fund，簡稱 FTIHX。
14:03
For bonds, Fidelity, US Bond Index Fund, AKA, FX, NAX.
對於債券，Fidelity，美國債券指數基金，又名，FX，NAX。
14:09
If you're investing with Charles Swab for US stocks, Swab, Total Stock Market Index Fund, AKA, SWTSX, or the ETF version, SCHB.
如果你使用 Charles Swab 投資美國股票，Swab，全股市指數基金，又名，SWTSX，或其 ETF 版本，SCHB。
14:19
For international stocks, Swab International Index Fund, AKA, SWISX, or the ETF version, SCHF.
對於國際股票，Swab 國際指數基金，又名，SWISX，或其 ETF 版本，SCHF。
14:28
For bonds, Swab, US Aggregate Bond Index Fund, AKA, SWAGX, or the ETF version, SCHB.
對於債券，Swab，美國綜合債券指數基金，又名，SWAGX，或其 ETF 版本，SCHB。
14:38
And that is it.
以上就是全部。
14:39
Depending on what firm you invest with, select the funds I just listed here, and you can literally build your own three firm portfolio in less than five minutes.
根據你投資的券商，選擇我剛剛列出的基金，你實際上可以在不到五分鐘的時間內建立自己的三基金投資組合。
14:46
Now let's tackle the next obvious question.
現在讓我們來解決下一個顯而易見的問題。
14:48
How much do you put in each fund?
你該在每支基金投入多少錢？
14:50
Let's talk about asset allocation.
讓我們談談資產配置。
14:52
For stock versus bond split, here's a general guide based on your life stage.
關於股票與債券的比例，這裡有一個根據人生階段的通用準則。
14:56
If you're in your wealth accumulation phase, many will consider 80 to 90% stocks and 10 to 20% bonds.
如果你處於財富積累階段，許多人會考慮 80% 到 90% 的股票和 10% 到 20% 的債券。
15:03
If you're at or near in your withdrawal phase, many will consider the 60 to 70% stocks and 30 to 40% bonds.
However, just to give you some context, from a market cap perspective, the US makes up roughly 60% of the global stock market, with international stocks making up the other 40%.
然而，為了讓你有些概念，從市值的角度來看，美國約佔全球股市的 60%，國際股票則佔另外的 40%。
15:32
So if you want to match the global market, you'll go 60-40.
所以如果你想匹配全球市場，你會選擇 60-40。
15:36
However, many investors tilt heavier towards US, myself included.
然而，許多投資者會更傾向於美國，我自己也是。
15:40
Call it home country bias, call it confidence in American companies, call it simplicity.
稱之為本國偏好，稱之為對美國公司的信心，或稱之為簡單化。
15:44
Whatever the allocation you choose, the key is to stick with it over the long run, and not second guess every time the US or the international stocks have a bad year.
無論你選擇什麼配置，關鍵在於長期堅持，不要在美國或國際股票表現不佳的年份就反覆猜疑。
15:53
One more thing, if your 401k doesn't have these exact funds, don't stress.
還有一件事，如果你的 401k 帳戶裡沒有這些特定的基金，別擔心。
15:57
An S&P 500 fund can substitute for a total stock market index fund.
S&P 500 基金可以替代總股票市場指數基金。
16:01
They're about 85% similar.
它們的相似度約為 85%。
16:03
Just look for the lowest cost index funds available, and apply the same principle.
只要尋找可用的最低成本指數基金，並應用相同的原則即可。
16:07
Now, before I wrap this video up in the line of simple portfolios, let me share with you a couple more notable alternatives.
現在，在我結束這部關於簡單投資組合的影片之前，讓我再與您分享幾個值得注意的替代方案。
16:13
One is a two-phone portfolio strategy.
其一是雙基金投資組合策略。
16:16
With this one, you're just dropping the international fund and holding just US stocks and US bonds.
使用這種策略，您只需剔除國際基金，僅持有美國股票和美國債券。
16:21
There are many investing experts that believe you don't necessarily need to hold separate international funds because many US multinational companies already generate 40 to 50% of revenue overseas.
