The cyclical economy is the driver of booms and busts.
週期性經濟是景氣循環的驅動因素。
00:04
The rise and fall of construction and manufacturing determine the strength of economic cycles.
營建業和製造業的興衰決定了經濟週期的力道。
00:09
In our last two videos, we introduced the EPB4 economy framework and analyzed the leading economy.
在我們前兩部影片中，我們介紹了 EPB4 經濟架構並分析了領先經濟。
00:16
The economy moves in a predictable sequence, and we break this sequence into four steps or four economies.
經濟依循可預測的順序運行，我們將此順序劃分為四個步驟或四種經濟。
00:22
The leading economy gives us an early warning sign of future changes in growth and employment by tracking various measures such as real money supply growth, the yield curve, and new home sales.
Next is the cyclical economy, which is the focus of this video.
接下來是週期性經濟，這是本影片的重點。
00:36
The cyclical economy is the first time we measure growth and employment directly, but only for the construction and manufacturing sectors, as these two industries are the most sensitive to changes in monetary policy and have the largest booms and busts.
In the leading economy, we looked at monetary measures and some measures of sales volume for key cyclical economy goods like homes and trucks.
在領先經濟中，我們檢視了貨幣指標以及房屋和卡車等關鍵週期性經濟商品的銷售量指標。
00:59
The cyclical economy directly measures the growth or production of those goods and the employment needed for the production of those goods.
週期性經濟直接衡量這些商品的成長或生產，以及生產這些商品所需的就業。
01:07
The cyclical economy is the engine of growth, or the pulse of the economy.
週期性經濟是成長的引擎，或是經濟的脈搏。
01:11
The rise and fall of construction and manufacturing determine the strength of the economic cycle.
營建業和製造業的興衰決定了經濟週期的力道。
01:16
This chart shows the cyclical economy index, a measure of production and employment for construction and manufacturing.
這張圖表顯示了週期性經濟指數，這是衡量營建業和製造業生產和就業的指標。
01:22
And the peaks can clearly be seen leading all major recessionary periods.
並且可以清楚地看到，這些高峰領先於所有主要的衰退期。
01:27
Furthermore, the peak to trough declines in the cyclical economy are perfectly correlated to the magnitude or severity of the recessionary period.
此外，週期性經濟從高峰到低谷的下降與衰退期的規模或嚴重程度完美相關。
01:35
The 2001 recession was the mildest recession because there was a very small contraction in the cyclical economy sectors, while the 2008 recession was massive, with a 30% decline in these key sectors.
It's often said that the cyclical economy sectors of construction and manufacturing don't matter as much anymore as they are becoming a smaller and smaller share of growth and employment.
人們常說，營建業和製造業這些週期性經濟部門不再那麼重要，因為它們在成長和就業中所佔的份額越來越小。
01:57
While it's true that these sectors have become a smaller share of the economy over time, these sectors have extreme cycles, often declining 10%, 20%, or even 30% in a recessionary period.
The amplitude or swings in the annual growth rates have ranged from plus 10% to negative 22% over the last several decades.
在過去幾十年中，年增長率的振幅或波動範圍從正 10% 到負 22%。
02:16
One of the biggest misconceptions in the post-2008 period is that the economy has avoided recession because it has been able to withstand declines in the cyclical sectors.
2008 年後時期最大的誤解之一是，經濟之所以避免了衰退，是因為它能夠抵禦週期性部門的下降。
02:26
This statement is empirically false and stems from a mismeasurement of the cyclical economy.
這種說法在實證上是錯誤的，源於對週期性經濟的錯誤衡量。
02:30
As this chart clearly shows, since the recovery after 2008, the cyclical economy has never declined aside from the brief COVID lockdowns.
如這張圖表清楚顯示，自2008年復甦以來，除了短暫的COVID封鎖期間，週期性經濟從未衰退。
02:39
So it's not that the economy avoided recession in spite of a downturn in construction and manufacturing.
所以，並非經濟在建築和製造業下滑的情況下避免了衰退。
02:44
It's very specifically because there was no downturn in construction and manufacturing.
而是非常明確地因為建築和製造業沒有出現下滑。
02:49
The leading economy measures things like sales volumes and new orders, and in that bucket there were downturns and soft patches.
領先經濟衡量的是銷售量和新訂單等指標，而這些範疇確實出現了下滑和疲軟期。
02:56
However, this bucket does not measure actual production or actual employment of these sectors.
然而，這個範疇並未衡量這些產業的實際生產或實際就業情況。
03:01
When properly measured, it's clear that there was no substantial downturn in the economy's engine, and this is why the economy has not experienced a business cycle recession.
當正確衡量時，很明顯經濟的引擎並未出現實質性下滑，這就是為什麼經濟沒有經歷商業週期衰退的原因。
03:09
This is why breaking the economy into these four buckets and properly sequencing the economic data is so critical in having a detailed understanding of what's going on in the overall economy.
這就是為什麼將經濟劃分為這四個範疇並正確排序經濟數據，對於詳細了解整體經濟狀況至關重要。
03:18
The cyclical economy is the most important component of this four economy framework.
週期性經濟是這個四經濟框架中最重要的組成部分。
03:23
It's often misstated that the economy declines because consumers stop spending, or that you need to wait for the services economy to slow down.
人們常誤以為經濟衰退是因為消費者停止消費，或者你需要等待服務業經濟放緩。
03:31
The US economy is a services economy after all, right?
美國經濟畢竟是服務型經濟，對吧？
03:34
Tightening of monetary policy impacts the leading economy.
貨幣政策收緊會影響領先經濟。
03:37
Once the leading economy turns down with enough magnitude and enough duration, the cyclical economy then turns down, which means actual production and actual employment in key industries are falling.
Job losses that occur in the cyclical economy create downstream effects on services.
週期性經濟中發生的失業會對服務業產生下游效應。
03:53
People who become unemployed in construction and manufacturing in the tangential industries immediately stop discretionary spending and eventually made default on credit cards, auto loans, and home mortgages.
Thanks then experience rising delinquencies and further contract credit, and only then do the service businesses experience a fall in revenues.
銀行隨後會經歷拖欠率上升並進一步收緊信貸，只有到那時，服務業才會經歷營收下滑。
04:12
At this point, the Federal Reserve and broader public noticed the trouble, but in reality, the sequence has been playing out usually for a few years.
此時，聯邦儲備理事會和廣大民眾才注意到問題，但實際上，這個順序通常已經持續了數年。
04:19
As noted in the last leading economy video, many leading economy indicators peaked and started through the client in 2005 and early 2006.
正如上一部領先經濟影片中所述，許多領先經濟指標在2005年和2006年初達到頂峰並開始下滑。
04:28
The cyclical economy was in a clear downturn by early 2007.
到2007年初，週期性經濟已明顯處於下滑趨勢。
04:32
The stock market, however, continued to rise until October 2007 and was less than 10% from an all-time high in early 2008.
然而，股市卻持續上漲直到2007年10月，並在2008年初距離歷史新高不到10%。
04:40
Today's version of economic analysis would suggest that the wealth effect of rising stock prices is the most critical, and thus it was only in late 2007 and early 2008 that financial conditions became tight and consumers pulled back as a result of declining assets.
But in reality, the sequence was in place and playing out visibly since 2005.
但實際上，該序列自2005年以來就已就位並明顯地展開。
04:59
The four economy framework is designed to link the sequence of economic events into a clear picture of both current conditions and a future business cycle outlook.
四經濟框架旨在將經濟事件的序列連結起來，形成對當前狀況和未來商業週期展望的清晰圖景。
05:08
Business cycles play out over years, not months and quarters.
商業週期歷時數年，而非數月或數季。
05:11
Many are narrowly focused on stock prices and ignore or outright refute events that may transpire years before peaks and asset prices.
許多人只狹隘地關注股價，並忽視或直接反駁可能在資產價格達到峰值前數年就已發生的事件。
05:19
The goal is not to predict daily market movements or short-term economic swings, but rather to determine how the sequence of the business cycle is moving step by step.
目標不是預測每日市場波動或短期經濟波動，而是要確定商業週期的序列如何一步步推進。
05:27
The cyclical economy is the most important component of the four economy framework and further break down into the granular sub-sectors of construction and manufacturing is essential.
週期性經濟是四經濟框架中最重要的組成部分，將其進一步細分為建築業和製造業的細微子行業至關重要。
05:37
Within construction and manufacturing, a few key sub-sectors are the usual suspects in driving the booms and busts in the overall cyclical economy, such as residential construction and durable goods manufacturing.
In the next video, we'll break down the most important areas of the manufacturing industry, including durable goods and motor vehicle manufacturing.
在下一個影片中，我們將深入分析製造業中最重要的領域，包括耐用品和汽車製造。
05:54
After that, we'll dive into the details within the construction sector before moving to the next step in the four economy framework, the aggregate economy.
之後，我們將深入探討建築業的細節，然後再進入四經濟框架的下一步——總體經濟。
06:04
If you're interested in this structured and repeatable process for tracking the business cycle, click the link in the description box below to visit epbresearch.com and learn more about our business cycle research package.
If you found this video interesting, please share it and don't forget to subscribe to this channel so you're notified when the next video in this series is published.
如果您覺得這個影片有趣，請分享它，並且不要忘記訂閱此頻道，以便在該系列下一個影片發佈時收到通知。
06:21
Thanks for watching, and I will see you in the next video.
感謝您的收看，我們下個影片見。
Cyclical Economy: The Most Important Part of the Business Cycle
8Whatisthe 'engineofgrowth' or 'pulseoftheeconomy' referredtointhevideo?影片中提到的「成長的引擎」或「經濟的脈搏」是指什麼？Whatisthe 'engineofgrowth' or 'pulseoftheeconomy' referredtointhevideo?
