Hello everyone, welcome to Business School 101. Today we're diving into something that affects everyone's life: business cycles. Ever wonder why the economy sometimes booms and sometimes busts? Why we can have record-breaking employment one year and a recession the next?
affects everyone's life, business cycles. Ever wonder why the economy sometimes booms and sometimes busts? Why we can have record-breaking employment one year and a recession the next.
These aren't random events; they're part of a fascinating pattern that economists have been studying since the 1800s. Today, we're going to break down these economic rollercoasters in a way that will help you understand what's happening in the economy right now and what might be coming next.
been studying since the 1800s. Today, we're going to break down these economic rollercoasters in a way that will help you understand what's happening in the economy right now and what might be coming Whether you're a student, an investor, or just someone trying to make smart financial decisions, understanding business cycles is absolutely crucial. So, let's dive in and demystify these economic ups and downs.
decisions, understanding business cycles is absolutely crucial. So, let's dive in and Section 1, definition. While America's standard of living has increased dramatically over the past century, it hasn't been a smooth ride up.
For instance, during the early 1930s, real GDP per capita actually fell for several years in a row.
例如，在1930年代初期，實際人均GDP連續數年實際下降。
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Since the early 19th century, the US economy has been riding this economic roller coaster of ups and downs.
自19世紀初以來，美國經濟一直在經歷這種經濟起伏的雲霄飛車。
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These recurring fluctuations in economic activity, marked by alternating periods of expansion and contraction, are what we call business cycles. We track these cycles using real GDP, which is our best measure of overall economic activity.
ups and downs. These recurring fluctuations in economic activity, marked by alternating periods By observing changes in real GDP over time, we can identify the four distinct phases of a business cycle. Let's break them down step by step so you can see how the economy moves through these phases.
GDP, which is our best measure of overall economic activity. By observing changes in real GDP over Number 1. The expansion phase. During this phase, things are looking up.
step by step so you can see how the economy moves through these phases.
一步步地，這樣你就能看到經濟是如何經歷這些階段的。
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Production is increasing, more people are getting jobs, and incomes are rising.
生產正在增加，更多人找到工作，收入正在上升。
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It's like the economy is firing on all cylinders. Number 2. The peak. This is when the party ends, we reach what economists call a business cycle peak.
這就像經濟正在全力運轉。第二點：高峰。這就是派對結束的時候，我們達到了經濟學家所稱的商業週期高峰。
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It's the highest point before things start turning south.
這是情況開始惡化之前的最高點。
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Number 3. The recession phase. After the peak, we enter the recession.
第三點：衰退階段。高峰過後，我們進入衰退期。
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Production falls, unemployment rises, and incomes decline. It's the economic winter, if you will.
生產下降，失業率上升，收入減少。如果你願意，這就是經濟的冬天。
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Number 4. The trough. This is the bottom of the cycle, but also where hope begins.
第四點：谷底。這是週期的最低點，但也是希望開始的地方。
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After hitting the trough, the economy starts expanding again, beginning a new cycle.
觸底之後，經濟再次開始擴張，展開一個新的週期。
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Section 2, example. Let me show you something fascinating.
第二節：範例。讓我給你看一些引人入勝的東西。
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Look at this chart showing the phases of the business cycle. See those ups and downs?
看看這張顯示商業週期階段的圖表。看到那些起伏了嗎？
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That's our economy in action. Number 1. The left panel shows an idealized business cycle, with real GDP increasing smoothly in an expansion to a business cycle peak and then decreasing smoothly in a recession to a business cycle trough, which is followed by another expansion and another recession.
That's our economy in action. Number 1. The left panel shows an idealized business cycle, Number 2. The right panel shows the somewhat messy reality of an actual business cycle during the period from 2006 to 2020.
decreasing smoothly in a recession to a business cycle trough, which is followed by After an expansion that started in 2001, we hit a peak in December 2007, then plunged into what became known as the Great Recession, the worst downturn since the 1930s.
somewhat messy reality of an actual business cycle during the period from 2006 to 2020.
2006年至2020年間實際景氣循環的混亂現實。
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But in June 2009, we hit bottom and bounced back into what would become the longest expansion in US history, lasting over 10 years.
但在2009年6月，我們觸底反彈，進入了美國歷史上最長的擴張期，持續了超過10年。
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became known as the Great Recession, the worst downturn since the 1930s. But in June 2009, Then came the unexpected. In February 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic pushed us into a brief recession that lasted just until April.
lasting over 10 years. Then came the unexpected. In February 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic pushed Section 3, who calls the shots? When it comes to identifying where we are in the business cycle, who gets to make the call?
It turns out that determining whether the economy is in a recession isn't as straightforward as it might seem.
事實證明，判斷經濟是否處於衰退期並不像看起來那麼簡單。
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Let's break it down step by step and look at the key players, the definitions they use, and how they decide the timing of these announcements.
讓我們一步步來分析，看看主要參與者、他們使用的定義，以及他們如何決定這些公告的時機。
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isn't as straightforward as it might seem. Let's break it down step by step and look at the key Number 1. The decision makers. Here's something that might surprise you: while the federal government tracks tons of economic data, they're not actually the ones who officially call recessions.
That job belongs to a group called the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER for short.
這項工作屬於國家經濟研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research，簡稱NBER）的景氣循環認定委員會。
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while the federal government tracks tons of economic data, they're not actually the ones who Think of them as the economy's referees, making the official calls from their headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Number 2. Definition of recession. Now, you might have heard in the news that a recession is two quarters of falling GDP, but that's actually an oversimplification.
referees, making the official calls from their headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
裁判，從他們位於麻薩諸塞州劍橋的總部做出官方判斷。
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The NBER looks at the bigger picture. Their definition is more comprehensive; they're looking for a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, showing up in things like industrial production, employment, income, and trade.
quarters of falling GDP, but that's actually an oversimplification. The NBER looks at the bigger Number 3. Timing of announcements. The NBER is usually pretty slow in making these announcements.
activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, showing up in things like For example, they didn't announce the December 2007 recession until November 2008, almost a year later.
Section 4, common characteristics. Each business cycle is different. The lengths of the expansion and recession phases and the sectors of the economy that are most affected are rarely the same in any two cycles.
第四節，共同特徵。每個景
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the December 2007 recession until November 2008, almost a year later.
2007年12月開始的衰退，直到將近一年後的2008年11月。
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But most business cycles share following characteristics. Number 1. End of expansion signs. At the end of an economic expansion, there are usually some clear signs that things are slowing down.
and recession phases and the sectors of the economy that are most affected are rarely the same in any Interest rates go up, wages rise faster than prices, and that puts pressure on company profits. On top of that, households and businesses often rack up a lot of debt during the good times to finance their spending.
expansion signs. At the end of an economic expansion, there are usually some clear signs that things are slowing down. Interest rates go up, wages rise faster than prices, Eventually, all that debt starts to weigh on them, and they begin cutting back, which can set the stage for a downturn.
rack up a lot of debt during the good times to finance their spending. Eventually, all that debt Number 2. How recessions begin. Recessions often kick off when businesses pull back on big purchases like machinery, equipment, or new factories, or when households stop spending on things like cars and furniture.
When spending drops, companies see their sales shrink, so they cut production and start laying off workers.
當支出下降時，企業會發現銷售額縮水，因此他們會削減生產並開始裁員。
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like machinery, equipment, or new factories, or when households stop spending on things like That creates a ripple effect: higher unemployment, lower incomes, and even less spending.
Number 3. The recovery process. Eventually, though, things turn around.
第三點，復甦過程。然而，最終情況會好轉。
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As the recession drags on, spending starts to stabilize, people pay down their debts, and lower interest rates make borrowing more attractive again.
隨著經濟衰退的持續，支出開始穩定，人們償還債務，而較低的利率使借貸再次變得更具吸引力。
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Households begin buying homes and durable goods, and businesses start investing in new equipment to prepare for the next boom.
家庭開始購買房屋和耐用品，企業也開始投資新設備，為下一個繁榮期做準備。
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and lower interest rates make borrowing more attractive again. Households begin buying homes That's how the cycle typically resets.
較低的利率使借貸再次變得更具吸引力。家庭開始購買房屋。這就是經濟週期通常重置的方式。
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Section 5, why this matters. Let's take a closer look at how business cycles matter for individuals, businesses, and policymakers.
第五部分，為何這很重要。讓我們仔細看看商業週期對個人、企業和政策制定者有何影響。
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Number 1. For individuals. Understanding business cycles is crucial for individuals; recognizing where the economy stands in the cycle can help with personal financial decisions.
第一點，對個人而言。了解商業週期對個人至關重要；認識經濟在週期中的位置有助於個人做出財務決策。
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For example, during an expansion, job opportunities might increase, and wages may rise, making it a good time to advance careers or make significant investments.
例如，在擴張期間，就業機會可能增加，工資可能上漲，這是一個推進事業或進行重大投資的好時機。
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is crucial for individuals, recognizing where the economy stands in the cycle can help with On the other hand, during a recession, it's important to prepare for potential challenges like job losses or tighter credit conditions.
Number 2. For businesses. For businesses, staying informed about business cycles can guide strategic planning.
第二點，對企業而言。對企業來說，隨時掌握商業週期資訊可以指導策略規劃。
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On the other hand, during a recession, it's important to prepare for potential challenges During expansions, companies might focus on growth, investing in new projects or hiring more workers. But as signs of a downturn emerge, it's wise to tighten budgets, manage debt carefully, and build financial resilience to weather slower periods.
staying informed about business cycles can guide strategic planning. During expansions, Number 3. For policymakers. For policymakers, understanding business cycles is key to maintaining economic stability.
But as signs of a downturn emerge, it's wise to tighten budgets, manage debt carefully, Governments and central banks use tools like fiscal policy and monetary policy to smooth out the extremes of cycles. For instance, during recessions, they might cut interest rates or increase public spending to stimulate growth.
For policymakers, understanding business cycles is key to maintaining economic stability.
對政策制定者來說，了解商業週期是維持經濟穩定的關鍵。
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Conversely, during expansions, they may raise rates or reduce spending to prevent overheating and inflation.
相反地，在擴張期間，他們可能會提高利率或減少支出，以防止經濟過熱和通貨膨脹。
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the extremes of cycles. For instance, during recessions, they might cut interest rates or Section 6, summary. To recap, a business cycle is made up of four key phases – expansion, peak, recession, and trough.
they may raise rates or reduce spending to prevent overheating and inflation.
他們可能會升息或縮減開支，以防止經濟過熱和通膨。
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These cycles are tracked using real GDP and represent the rhythms of growth and contraction that have shaped economies for centuries. Understanding business cycles isn't just academic; it's highly practical.
peak, recession, and trough. These cycles are tracked using real GDP and represent the rhythms Recognizing where we are in the cycle helps individuals make smarter financial decisions, businesses plan more effectively, and policymakers design strategies to stabilize the economy.
cycles isn't just academic, it's highly practical. Recognizing where we are in the cycle helps The better you understand these patterns, the better equipped you are to navigate life's economic ups and downs, and maybe even anticipate what's coming next.
你越了解這些模式，就越能應對生活中的經濟起伏，甚至可能預測接下來會發生什麼。
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design strategies to stabilize the economy. The better you understand these patterns, If you find this helpful, don't forget to hit that like button and subscribe to the channel.
如果你覺得這有幫助，別忘了點讚並訂閱頻道。
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Got questions about business cycles? Drop them in the comments below.
對於景氣循環有疑問嗎？請在下方留言。
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Thanks for watching, and I'll see you in the next video.
感謝收看，我們下部影片再見。
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Got questions about business cycles? Drop them in the comments below.
對於景氣循環有疑問嗎？請在下方留言。
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Thanks for watching, and I'll see you in the next video.
感謝收看，我們下部影片再見。
What are Business Cycles (Economic Cycles)? | Macroeconomics | From A Business Professor
