00:20
🎙️
[Music] above Target and continued evidence of a
[音樂] 高於目標且持續有證據顯示勞動市場緊縮
00:29
🎙️
restrictive labor Market the economy appears to be in a late cycle pattern or is it actually our next guest says that
經濟似乎處於循環末期模式，但我們的下一位嘉賓表示，實際上可能並非如此
00:37
🎙️
midcycle Dynamics have emerged leading to a broader economic growth globally on a global basis so where does our next
循環中期動態已經浮現，導致全球出現更廣泛的經濟增長，那麼我們的下一位嘉賓認為
00:44
🎙️
guest believe that we are today in the business cycle and which asset classes is she feeling most positive about in
我們目前在商業循環中的哪個階段？以及在當前的市場環境下，她最看好哪些資產類別？
00:51
🎙️
this current market environment here today to help you take a look at the health of the global business cycle and
今天在此協助各位檢視全球商業循環的健康狀況
00:57
🎙️
how that could ultimately shape some of your investment decisions is Fidelity us asset allocation research analyst Kate
以及這最終將如何影響各位的投資決策的，是富達美國資產配置研究分析師 Kate
01:05
🎙️
durney um great to see you here Kate how are you today glad you could join us thanks so much for having me Pamela and
Durney。Kate，很高興見到你，你今天好嗎？很高興你能加入我們，非常感謝 Pamela 的邀請
01:11
🎙️
happy late August to everybody indeed indeed and is it actually we'll invite everyone to send their their questions
祝大家八月晚些日子快樂。是的，是的，我們將邀請所有人提出他們的問題
01:17
🎙️
in but we want to ask you about this late cycle dynamic ultimately that many people have been saying this is Classic
但我們想先問問你關於這個循環末期的動態，最終許多人一直說這是典型的
01:24
🎙️
this is classic late cycle clearly we've seen evaluations maybe largely for the mag s but in certain places just wild
這是典型的循環末期，顯然我們看到估值上升，也許主要是 MAGS（指大型科技股），但在某些地方情況非常瘋狂
01:32
🎙️
this must be the end is this the end of a business cycle in your mind there's a lot in that question it's
這一定是終點了嗎？在你看來，這是商業循環的終點嗎？這個問題包含很多層面，是個
01:38
🎙️
a hard question and I would say the way that I would answer it is that our highest conviction view overall is that
很難回答的問題，我會說我的回答方式是，我們整體最有信心的觀點是
01:44
🎙️
we're in an expansion so yes there's elements of midcycle there's elements of late and I can talk about what those are
我們處於擴張期，所以是的，有循環中期的元素，也有循環末期的元素，我可以談談這些是什麼
01:50
🎙️
but overall our highest conviction view is that we're still in an economic expansion we're still underpinned by a
但整體而言，我們最有信心的觀點是我們仍處於經濟擴張期，我們仍然受到
01:56
🎙️
very solid corporate sector and consumer sector which are two of the biggest parts of the economy um so as you
非常穩固的企業部門和消費部門的支撐，這兩個部門是經濟中最大的部分。嗯，正如你
02:01
🎙️
mentioned Pamela over the last year year and a half there have been more midcycle dynamics that have emerged so this has
所提到的 Pamela，在過去一年到一年半的時間裡，出現了更多循環中期的動態，這來自於
02:08
🎙️
come from um profit margins starting to expand it's come from uh earnings going from mildly Contracting to starting to
利潤率開始擴張，來自於獲利從輕微收縮轉為開始
02:16
🎙️
grow again I mean earnings were up 10% in the second quarter of this year for publicly traded companies um and it's
再次增長，我的意思是，今年第二季上市公司的獲利增長了 10%，也
02:23
🎙️
come from progress on inflation some cooling of the labor market some loosening of financial conditions both
來自於通膨方面的進展，勞動市場有些許降溫，金融條件有些許放鬆，無論是
02:29
🎙️
Market BAS B and uh the surveys that we have of Bank lending so those are all kind of midcycle a little bit of
市場基礎還是我們對銀行貸款的調查，這些都有一點循環中期的味道
02:34
🎙️
disinflation kind of better um better Dynamics we still are a bit Tethered to late cycle where we have a still tight
通膨放緩 kind of better um better Dynamics 我們仍然與晚期週期有些連結 因為我們的聯準會仍然緊縮
02:42
🎙️
fed although likely to get less tight starting in the next couple of weeks still inflation that's we've gotten a
雖然可能在未來幾週開始變得不那麼緊縮 但通膨方面 雖然我們已經取得很多進展 但仍高於目標
02:48
🎙️
lot of progress but still above Target and overall kind of uh pressure on rate sensitive parts of the economy like
且整體而言 對利率敏感的經濟領域 如房地產或製造業 存在壓力
02:55
🎙️
housing or manufacturing so there's kind of elements of both you tend to always have that but over overall we we do
所以有 both 的元素 你往往總是會有這種情況 但整體而言 我們確實
03:00
🎙️
still see a pretty solid backdrop for for the US so so you do tend to always see that as you say there'll be there'll
仍然看到美國經濟相當穩固的背景 所以正如你所說 總會有
03:06
🎙️
be elements that will point to both to an extent um but it's that question of is it different this time and it really
有些元素會指向兩邊到某種程度 um 但問題在於 這次是否不同 這確實
03:14
🎙️
comes from all the stimulus both monetary and fiscal that got essentially dumped into the system is now being
來自於所有注入系統的刺激措施 無論是貨幣還是財政 現在正以某些方式被移除
03:20
🎙️
taken out in certain ways but has that has that just sort of rocked the boat a little bit on being able to see the
但這是否 just sort of rocked the boat a little bit 讓我們難以看清
03:28
🎙️
cycle that we're in and maybe just leading to some different views on that yeah I think that's a really um
我們所處的週期 也許導致對此產生一些不同的看法 是的 我認為這是一個 really um
03:34
🎙️
interesting point so usually when you go you know what ends a cycle as you built up all of these excesses right and it's
有趣的點 通常當你知道什麼結束了一個週期 是因為你已經累積了所有的 excesses 對吧
03:40
🎙️
just the burden of that um interest cost or all the debt that you've taken out just becomes too much as the FED raises
只是那種利息成本的負擔 或是你借的所有債務 在聯準會升息時 just becomes too much
03:47
🎙️
rates and then you have a recession doesn't happen this time because um a lot of the private sector hasn't taken
然後你就會遇到衰退 但這次沒有發生 因為 um 很多私營部門並沒有
03:52
🎙️
on Leverage the corporate sector whether it's Financial non-financial the consumer sector in the US really has not
承擔槓桿 無論是金融還是非金融的企業部門 美國的消費者部門實際上
03:58
🎙️
has not taken debt up actually debt levels are lower than they were five 15 years ago and we have this long-term
並沒有增加債務 實際上債務水平比五年前甚至十五年前還要低 而且我們有這種長期的
04:05
🎙️
fixed rate debt so it hasn't really hasn't materialize the way that that it that it normally would which gives us
固定利率債務 所以它並沒有以 normally would 的方式實現 這給了我們
04:11
🎙️
conviction and we you know the the broader expansion you know the way kind of the way that we look at this and the
信心 我們 you know 更廣泛的擴張 也就是我們看待這個問題的方式
04:17
🎙️
way that we analyze it we have these models that compare um the economy to history which is where we're getting
以及我們分析它的方式 我們有這些模型來比較 um 經濟體與歷史 這就是我們得出
04:23
🎙️
that midcycle Dynamic and the late cycle dynamic but we also spend time looking at what's different this time what could
中期週期動態和晚期週期動態的依據 但我們也花時間研究這次有什麼不同 什麼可能
04:29
🎙️
make the cycle longer what could make us go back in the cycle and that's kind of where we get to a lot of things that I
讓週期更長 什麼可能讓我們回到週期 這就是我們得出很多我
04:34
🎙️
just mentioned those things that are just a little bit different this time that we haven't followed the typical
剛才提到的那些東西的地方 這次有些東西 just a little bit different 我們沒有遵循典型的
04:38
🎙️
pattern that you might have seen you know in past Cycles it's so interesting and as you and before I ask you how we
你可能在過去的循環中見過的模式，這非常有趣，而且在你……在我問你我們未來可能怎麼走之前，稍微回顧一下，並請你告訴我們一些關於你以及你在富達的工作
04:45
🎙️
might be going forward a little bit backward and some of those things tell us a little bit about you and your job
以及你日常的工作內容，你顯然在看這些模型並分析
04:50
🎙️
at Fidelity and and what you do on a day-to-day basis you're obviously looking at these models and analyzing
它們，但請為我們稍微補充一下細節。當然，所以我負責涵蓋商業循環，我負責美國的
04:54
🎙️
those but just just fill out the picture for us a bit for sure so I um I cover the business cycle I cover it for the US
部分，如我所說，我們運行這些模型，我們在經濟和市場上做了很多工作，我也涵蓋中國、印度、歐洲
05:01
🎙️
like I said we run these models we do a lot of work on the economy and the markets I cover China India Europe
加拿大，以及其他一些經濟體，同時我也提供我們的資產配置建議給
05:07
🎙️
Canada um some of these other economies as well and I also give our um asset allocation recommendations to the
你常看到的多重資產類別基金經理，所以我們運行一個試點投資組合，我們提供
05:14
🎙️
multi-asset class portfolio managers that you see on here all the time so we run a a pilot portfolio we are giving
區域股票的觀點，股票債券的呼叫，以及固定收益內的不同類別，所以
05:20
🎙️
you know Regional Equity uh views stock Bond call uh within fixed income different fixed income categories so
基本上我的全部工作就是觀察經濟模型（EOM）並觀察市場，以便提供那些主動的資產配置
05:27
🎙️
basically my whole job is to to look at the eom and look at the markets in order to give those active asset allocation
建議。 absolutely fascinating 好的，那麼讓我們談談美國經濟，然後最終我們會開始討論
05:32
🎙️
recommendations absolutely fascinating okay so let's let's go to the US economy and then ultimately we'll start talking
你工作的其他部分，關於相對表現的故事以及美國例外主義，我們稍後會深入探討
05:38
🎙️
a little bit to some of your other parts of the job to the relative story and and us exceptionals and we'll get into that
但我很好奇關於我們聽到的經濟兩極化現象，這也算是
05:44
🎙️
in a sec but I'm I'm quite curious about um sort of the bifurcation of the economy that we hear about it also is
那種……我不知道算不算有爭議，但兩邊都有人提出疑問，關於
05:51
🎙️
sort of one of those I don't know controversial but there's a there questions on both sides uh of whether
經濟的某些部分是否表現出色，而其他部分實際上在掙扎，你對此有何看法？
05:57
🎙️
some parts of the economy are just doing brilliant and others are actually struggling what do you say to that and
以及你如何看待這最終如何影響投資決策，目前是否存在分化的經濟？我
06:03
🎙️
and um how do you see that ultimately working into investment decisions is there bated economy at this point I
認為大體上是正確的，而且我認為在某些方面這是件好事，因為它給了我們投資
06:10
🎙️
think that's broadly true um and I think in some ways it's a good thing right because it it gives us all investment
機會，而我們確實想要那種分散度。我會說，整體而言，經濟表現還可以，如果
06:15
🎙️
opportunities and we kind of want that dispersion um I would say you know overall the economy is is doing okay if
你狹隘地看像利潤循環這樣的東西，所以我提到過美國股票，公開交易的公司
06:21
🎙️
you look narrowly at something like the profit cycle so I mentioned you know us Equity um publicly traded company
在第二季獲利增長了 10% 以上，但如果我們看整體經濟的獲利，這
06:28
🎙️
earnings are up 10% in the over over 10% in the second quarter but if we look at economy-wide uh earnings so this
包括了小型企業、私營公司，它們在輕微收縮後實際上只增長了中個位數百分比
06:35
🎙️
includes small businesses private companies they're actually up mids single digits after a mild contraction
這包括了小型企業和私人公司，它們在輕微收縮後，實際上增長了中個位數百分比。
06:40
🎙️
last year so that's not so bad everybody is kind of uh lifted a bit relative to where they were last year um but when we
去年，所以這不算太糟，相較於去年，大家的情況都有些許改善。
06:47
🎙️
look within that we do see kind of uh dispersion across sectors so at the economy uh level we are seeing you know
但當我們深入觀察時，我們確實看到各板塊之間存在分歧。在整體經濟層面，我們看到，
06:54
🎙️
still more strength in Services we all know that if we've anybody has traveled this summer we we're seeing that
服務業仍然更具韌性。如果有人今年夏天出遊過，我們都能感受到，
06:59
🎙️
services spend in real time um still weakness in housing you know housing activity is depressed kind of similar um
服務業支出在即時數據中依然強勁。然而房地產依然疲軟，你知道房地產活動低迷，
07:06
🎙️
you know similar to what we see in Canada where there's not a lot of transacting going on um same with
這與我們在加拿大看到的情況類似，交易量都不大。製造業也是如此，
07:10
🎙️
manufacturing again another rate sensitive sector So within the kind of the real economy side that's where we
這是另一個對利率敏感的板塊。因此，在實體經濟這一側，我們看到了差異。
07:16
🎙️
see um some differences in terms of the equity uh Equity Market sectors uh as I said we've s we've seen kind of over
至於股票市場板塊，正如我所說，我們看到超過一半的板塊開始重新實現盈利增長，
07:24
🎙️
half of sectors starting to grow earnings again we've seen about 60% of sectors with margins that are wider or
我們看到約 60% 的板塊利潤率比一年前更寬或更高，
07:31
🎙️
you know higher than they were a year ago so that's decently broad-based and that's coming from kind of some of the
這算是相當廣泛的復甦，主要來自於你預期中的板塊，
07:37
🎙️
guys you would expect so Tech or com services but it's also coming from utilities uh to some extent financials
比如科技或通訊服務，但公用事業在一定程度上也有貢獻，
07:44
🎙️
and also consumer discretionary and uh Staples have started to participate as well still seeing some weakness uh in
還有金融業，消費 discretionary（非必需消費品）和 Staples（必需消費品）也開始參與其中。
07:51
🎙️
areas like you know reats uh areas that are more more rate sensitive so a little bit of dispersion although I would say
不過我們仍看到像 REITs 這類對利率更敏感的領域有些疲軟。
07:57
🎙️
kind of on net everybody most most sectors are a bit better off than they were a year ago and which to some people
所以雖然有些分歧，但我認為整體而言，大多數板塊都比一年前情況要好一些。
08:04
🎙️
is shocking because you know they're very high interest rates right now and and and there is an ability it seems um
這對某些人來說可能令人驚訝，因為你知道目前利率非常高，
08:09
🎙️
for for a lot of performance uh even with that as as the backdrop on the rates front we as you mentioned we are
但在這樣的背景下，市場表現依然能維持水準。正如您提到的，關於利率方面，
08:16
🎙️
expecting rates in the United States to to come down starting in September it's the consensus view should that fix the
我們預期美國將從九月開始降息，這是目前的共識觀點。
08:23
🎙️
other stories in uh in the economy I think it helps so if we just take the two biggest kind of rate
這是否能解決經濟中的其他問題？我想是有幫助的。
08:31
🎙️
sensitive parts of the economy housing and Manufacturing I think it helps a little bit right mortgage rates in the
如果我們只看經濟體中對利率最敏感的兩個部分：房地產和製造業，我認為這會有些幫助。
08:36
🎙️
US are now kind of just above six down from where they were you know a couple quarters ago so if we get a little bit
目前美國的抵押貸款利率剛好超過 6%，低於幾季度前的水準。
08:43
🎙️
more a little bit under six um that helps a bit and brings some buyers into the market um but the as you know we
如果能再降一點，低於 6%，這將有助於吸引一些買家進入市場。但正如你所知，我們...
08:51
🎙️
have long-term fixed rate mortgages in the US most people have a 30-year mortgage and the average rate on the
在美國，許多人擁有長期固定利率的抵押貸款，多數人選擇30年期房貸，而目前存量房貸的平均利率低於4%
08:56
🎙️
mortgage stock is sub 4% so probably brings a little bit of lift into the market into parts of it into things like
因此，這可能會為市場的某些部分帶來些許提振，像是家居用品或其他與房屋相關的產業，除了房地產本身之外
09:04
🎙️
um Home Furnishings or other housing related in in addition to housing itself but it might not be an absolute game
但這可能不會成為絕對的轉捩點，讓情況回到2019年左右的水平。製造業也是類似的情況
09:10
🎙️
Cher going back to sort of 2019 type levels same thing on manufacturing um makes it a little bit cheaper to get to
讓取得貸款來進行資本支出變得更便宜一些，但我認為對於這些類別來說
09:17
🎙️
get a loan to do some CeX but um you know I think it's it might not be a wholesale game changer for for those
這可能不會是全面性的重大轉變，可能只會在美國帶來漸進式的提振
09:23
🎙️
categories it might just be more of kind of an incremental lift in the US let's go back to some of the things you you
讓我們回到您一開始提到的一些內容，當時您廣泛地審視了您所關注的經濟領域
09:28
🎙️
open when we open opened up and sort of you've broadly looked at um at the pieces of the economy that that you're
包括利潤率的故事，這一直很值得關注，還有信貸狀況
09:33
🎙️
looking at so the profit margin story which has been very interesting to follow kind of the credit story as well
以及勞動市場，我們似乎都認為聯準會目前非常關注這一點
09:39
🎙️
and also the labor market which we all seem to think the FED is pretty fixated on at this point um so can we just go
那麼我們能逐一探討這三點嗎？利潤率、信貸狀況，以及勞動市場的狀況
09:46
🎙️
through those three profit margins credit conditions ultimately and and kind of the labor story for sure so
當然。那麼從美國的利潤率和獲利循環開始說起
09:52
🎙️
starting out with um profit the earnings cycle in the US so uh last year we were in a mild contraction earnings were
去年我們經歷了輕微的收縮，獲利以中個位數的速度下滑
09:59
🎙️
Contracting sort of mid single digit and this year earnings are growing again and it's we're seeing that in about half of
而今年獲利再次增長，我們看到約有一半的產業出現這種情況
10:05
🎙️
sectors as I mentioned we are seeing it actually in um kind of mid and smaller cap companies too we're seeing Rising
如我所提，我們也看到中型股和小型股公司的獲利正在上升
10:12
🎙️
earnings estimates uh which is a good thing because we found that earnings revisions are closely correlated with
我們看到獲利預估上調，這是件好事，因為我們發現獲利預估的修正與股市表現密切相關
10:18
🎙️
Equity performance um so overall broadly good and as I mentioned the real economy profits are also growing somewhere mid
總體而言，情況是好的。如我所提，實體經濟的利潤也以中個位數的速度增長
10:25
🎙️
single digit so that's kind of a a green in a good spot credit condition misss um are still you know rates are high but
所以這是一個正面的發展。至於信貸狀況，目前利率仍然偏高
10:32
🎙️
they are starting to come down we've seen Banks more willing to lend really across any type of lending whether it's
但已開始下降。我們看到銀行更願意放貸，無論是哪種類型的貸款，無論是對消費者還是企業
10:39
🎙️
lending to Consumers to businesses um and we know that you know we'll talk about the FED but we know the FED is
我們知道，我們會談到聯準會，我們知道聯準會可能將在幾週後開始下調其政策利率
10:45
🎙️
likely going to be bringing down their policy rate starting in a couple of weeks and so the credit uh backdrop I
因此，我認為信貸背景的狀況是，水位仍然相對緊縮，但趨勢正在好轉
10:51
🎙️
would say is uh the level is still relatively tight but the change is better um and then on employment so this
接下來是就業方面，那麼這個
10:58
🎙️
is a similar to how profits were you know last year Contracting this year better employment's a little bit of the
這跟去年利潤的情況有點像，你知道的，今年在收縮，就業情況則好轉了一些，某種程度上是相反的
11:04
🎙️
reverse we've had this red hot labor market for years in the US um as we have you know in many parts of the world but
我們在美國有這個火熱的勞動市場好幾年了，嗯，就像你知道的在世界許多地方一樣，但
11:12
🎙️
this year we have something different we have a normalizing labor market we have uh labor demand coming down and more to
今年我們看到一些不同，我們有一個正在正常化的勞動市場，我們有呃勞動需求下降，回到更
11:19
🎙️
more normal levels we have Labor availability getting better with people coming into the labor force and so
正常的水平，勞動力供給也因為人們進入勞動市場而變得更好，所以
11:24
🎙️
unlike kind of last year where we had this red hot labor market we're we are having this nor ization and you know
不像去年那樣，我們有個火熱的勞動市場，我們現在正在經歷這個正常化，你知道的
11:30
🎙️
we're all watching closely to see just how much it's going to slow or cool or normalize or kind of CH choose your your
我們都在密切關注，想看看它到底會放緩、冷卻、正常化，或者說是，選擇你喜歡的
11:36
🎙️
word of choice right yeah it's fascinating and and those are ultimately sort of leading you into some of the
用詞，對吧。是的，這很有趣，而這些最終也引導你走向一些
11:43
🎙️
Dynamics as you mentioned of where we are in the business like all these different pieces um I might ask at this
動態，就像你提到的，關於我們在商業循環中的位置，所有這些不同的部分，嗯，我現在想問一下
11:48
🎙️
point we'll go into kind of how you're looking at other countries but I mean inflation there are those that will say
我們接下來會談到你如何看待其他國家，但我想說的是通膨，有些人會說
11:55
🎙️
inflation is still a concern actually and then sometimes you look at the bond market it's preparing for a recession
通膨仍然是個隱憂，真的，然後有時候你看債券市場，它又在為不久後的
12:02
🎙️
not too too far away so it's it's hard to read some of the different stories within what is a bigger risk in your
衰退做準備，所以很難解讀其中一些不同的故事，那麼在你
12:08
🎙️
mind is it more inflation which would mean stasis on the rate movement or is it is it actually a recession in the
心中，更大的風險是什麼？是通膨持續，這意味著利率政策停滯，還是說其實是衰退即將
12:17
🎙️
offing it's a great question and a loaded question um and we have a we have a really strong inflation analyst uh
到來？這是個很好的問題，也是個棘手的問題，嗯，我們有一位非常強大的通膨分析師，呃
12:24
🎙️
Colin crownover who I get to pester with questions all the time and he has an inflation forecast
科林·克朗諾弗，我總是拿問題去煩他，他對通膨的預測是
12:29
🎙️
of around three so not really getting down to um 2% anytime soon so I would say um that combine with the fact that
大約在3%左右，所以短期內不太可能降到，嗯，2%，所以我想說，嗯，這點再加上
12:38
🎙️
the FED has now really moved their attention to the employment side of their mandate and to that risk of
聯準會現在真的把注意力轉向其任務中的就業方面，以及你提到的衰退風險
12:44
🎙️
recession that you said that kind of those thing that kind of reduces the the risk of recession because the fed's now
這兩件事某種程度上降低了衰退的風險，因為聯準會現在
12:50
🎙️
going to be focusing on it and hopefully easing policy that almost reduces that that recessionary tail whereas we do
將會關注它，並希望放寬政策，這幾乎消除了那個衰退的尾巴風險，然而我們確實
12:57
🎙️
think that inflation is pretty sticky and and probably not heading all the way down to 2% anytime soon so on that you
認為通膨相當頑固，而且可能短期內不會一路降至2%，所以在這方面，你知道的
13:03
🎙️
know on a medium kind of Outlook we would take inflation as as the bigger risk that's a bigger R tell us a little
在中期展望上，我們會把通膨視為更大的風險，那是個更大的風險，請告訴我們一些
13:09
🎙️
bit about how the US um looks and we'll break it down into asset classes in a in in a minute but I'm curious sort of
關於美國的狀況，我們稍後會按資產類別來細分，但我很好奇相對於其他同樣經歷自身利率週期的國家
13:17
🎙️
relative to other countries that are also going through their own interest rate Cycles in many cases cutting after
在許多情況下，這些國家在過去幾年疫情結束後，利率一度升高，現在正開始降息
13:23
🎙️
having had um heightened interest rates over the course of the last couple of years coming out of the pandemic is it
如果從區域性的角度來看，這是否仍然是美國例外論？是的，這是一個
13:28
🎙️
still us us exceptionalism if you had to go sort of regionally yeah it's a it's another good
很好的問題。我們觀察國際週期的方式有三個面向。首先，我們觀察
13:34
🎙️
question so how we look at the international cycle is uh three prongs we look at first uh we have recession
衰退機率或商業週期類型的模型，這些指標顯示國際間的衰退風險
13:41
🎙️
probability or business cycle type models and those are telling you that recession risks have gone down pretty
相較於去年已經大幅下降
13:46
🎙️
much across the board internationally um relative to where they were last year so that's better we're seeing it the most
整體而言都有所改善。我們看到歐洲的情況最明顯
13:52
🎙️
in places like Europe a a couple of Emerging Markets uh to a lesser extent in Canada so that's kind of looking at
還有一些新興市場，加拿大的情況則稍微好轉
13:59
🎙️
bit a bit better um whereas the US recession likelihood has kind of been unchanged at relatively low levels um so
相對而言，美國的衰退可能性則維持在相對較低的水準，沒有太大變化
14:06
🎙️
kind of less less us exceptionalism on that metric the second thing we look at is earnings and we look at earnings
所以在這個指標上，美國例外論的色彩淡了一些。我們觀察的第二個指標是獲利，特別是獲利預期的
14:12
🎙️
revisions because we find that relative earnings revisions so are em companies um getting their earnings revised you
修正。我們發現，相對於美國，新興市場公司的獲利預期修正速度
14:19
🎙️
know faster or slower than us we find that that is a really strong correlation with um with Equity relative Equity
與股市的相對表現有非常強的關聯性。目前我們看到國際市場
14:25
🎙️
performance on that metric we're actually seeing some better signs for uh International markets too so we're
也出現了一些好轉的跡象。大約在過去三個月左右
14:31
🎙️
starting to just in the last three months or so um see uh International earnings revisions in places like e so
我們看到歐洲等已開發市場或新興市場的獲利預期修正
14:39
🎙️
develop markets or em actually start to outpace the us and this has been a change because for the last 18 months
開始超越美國。這是一個轉變，因為在過去18個月
14:47
🎙️
it's us has been the only game in town with the strongest earnings backdrop so a little bit kind of more positive there
美國一直是唯一擁有最強勁獲利基本面的市場，所以在這方面也稍微樂觀了一些
14:52
🎙️
and then on the third one we look more broadly at macro and and we look at policy and things like that and and as
第三個面向，我們更廣泛地觀察總體經濟和政策等方面。正如您所提到的
14:58
🎙️
you alluded to actually we are seeing central banks with the room or ability or willingness to cut rates to a greater
我們確實看到歐洲、加拿大、英國等國家的央行
15:05
🎙️
extent in you know Europe Canada England um other places kind of faster than the US so taken together um it's not a slam
比美國更有意願或能力更快速地降息。綜合來看，雖然並非
15:14
🎙️
dunk but kind of all three of those prongs of our approach look a little bit more favorable or kind of less negative
勢在必得，但我們方法的這三個面向看起來都稍微有利一些，或說不那麼悲觀
15:20
🎙️
for these non- us markets than they did if we were having this conversation you know six months ago or a year ago
在這些非美國市場，我們的態度比六個月前或一年前更加積極。
15:26
🎙️
fascinating So within um the broad asset classes if we're just to break it up into equities and fixed income how how
真是引人入勝。那麼，在廣泛的資產類別中，如果我們將其簡單分為股票和固定收益，這如何與可能略有不同的區域觀點相契合？
15:33
🎙️
does that fit with maybe a slightly different Regional view like it used to be as you said us exceptionalism but but
如您所說，過去是美國例外論，但其實美國股票曾是故事的主軸。現在這在多大程度上仍是主軸？也許減弱了，請為我們勾勒一下。
15:40
🎙️
really us equities was sort of the story is to what extent is that still the story maybe lessened just sketch that
當然。在我們的建議中，或我們與貴公司（在此會議中）的投資組合經理的對話中，我們一直對整體股票持略為增持的態度。
15:47
🎙️
for us for sure so you know in our recommendations or our um kind of conversations that we have with
大部分的曝險都在美國，這反映了我們正在討論的所有因素。相對於我們的基準，我們對已開發市場和新興市場的配置確實較小。
15:53
🎙️
portfolio managers that you guys have on this call we've been you know modestly overweight equities over all we have had
這是我們正在深思的事情，我們已經淺嚐試水，現在看到這些市場正有所好轉，更有信心，或許是時候在那裡採取更強烈的觀點。
16:00
🎙️
most of that exposure in us just reflecting all the things that you and I are talking about um we do have small
但這仍處於非常早期的階段，這就是我們目前的思考方式。
16:07
🎙️
allocations to develop markets and to um Emerging Markets relative to our Benchmark um and it's something that
在固定收益方面也很有趣，美國即將降息的預期是否已反映在定價中？其他國家已經開始降息了。
16:13
🎙️
we're thinking a lot about so we kind of have our we've dipped our toe in that and we want and now that we're seeing
是的，我們已經反映了這個觀點。一段時間以來，基於對經濟韌性及通膨韌性的看法，我們一直建議或表達出比基準更短的存續期。
16:18
🎙️
kind of more more conviction that these these markets are getting a little bit better it might make sense to take a
但大約兩個月前，我們開始建議中期公債和通膨保值債券（TIPS），讓我們轉向更中性的存續期觀點。
16:23
🎙️
stronger view there um it's kind of still still early in the process so that's how we're how we're thinking
這是因為，如果我們思考驅動存續期的因素：成長、通膨和聯準會政策。成長正在放緩並正常化，通膨目前也在放緩，而聯準會正在寬鬆。
16:29
🎙️
about it really interesting on the fixed income side um again is is it primed for the idea that rate cups are are on the
所有這些因素整體而言對存續期是有利的。因此，我們目前處於相對於基準中性的狀態，持有通膨保值債券以反映通膨觀點，以及一些傾向於...的中期公債。
16:38
🎙️
horizon in the US they've gotten going in other countries already yeah so we have reflected that view so we had been
美國的降息即將到來，其他國家已經開始降息了。是的，所以我們已經反映了這個觀點，因此我們一直以來...
16:45
🎙️
um we had been recommending or expressing a shorter uh duration than our Benchmark for some time on that kind
嗯，我們在一段時間內一直建議或表達比我們的基準更短的存續期。
16:51
🎙️
of resilient cycle view in the resilient inflation view but then about two months ago now we um we started recommending
關於韌性週期觀點和韌性通膨觀點。但大約兩個月前，我們開始建議...
17:00
🎙️
things like intermediate treasuries and also tips to bring us into more of a neutral duration View and that's just
像是中期公債和通膨保值債券 (TIPS)，以使我們進入更中性的存續期觀點。
17:06
🎙️
because if you think about how what we think about think drives duration it's growth inflation and fed policy growth
因為如果你思考我們認為什麼驅動存續期，那就是成長、通膨和聯準會政策。
17:12
🎙️
it is slowing normalizing inflation is still slowing for now and fed is easing so all those things should be on net
成長正在放緩並正常化，通膨目前仍在放緩，聯準會正在放鬆政策，因此所有這些因素總體而言應該是...
17:18
🎙️
kind of good um good for duration and so that's kind of where we are kind of sitting neutral relative to our
對於存續期來說是好的，所以這就是我們相對於我們的...保持中性倉位的原因。
17:24
🎙️
Benchmark with um positions in tips to reflect the inflation View and some intermediate treasuries that tend to
基準，並持有通膨保值債券倉位以反映通膨觀點，以及一些傾向於...的中期公債。
17:31
🎙️
benefit when the FED is cutting rates that's fantastic okay we'll Circle back to some of those ideas there's some
當聯準會降息時會受益，這太棒了。好的，我們會再回到一些想法，現在有很棒的問題進來，所以讓我們...我認為我認為你大概已經回答了循環觀點，這是否只適用於美國？你是否想再重述一遍？當你談論整體循環時，我們指的是，這是否僅是美國的循環？這就是問題所在。
17:36
🎙️
great questions coming in so let's um I think I think you sort of answered the cycle view is it only for the US do you
是的，這...這...嗯，我所有的評論大概都是針對美國。我們看到這種正向的推動在其他地方也有，但程度較小。所以如果我們看獲利循環或利潤循環，我們現在看到，在美國利潤率穩定約一年後，我們開始看到歐洲、日本、加拿大的利潤率甚至在一些新興市場也趨於穩定。
17:43
🎙️
want to just kind of go back over that when you're speaking about the cycle generally and we're referring to that is
所以我們在世界其他地區看到了這種延遲的、些許的利潤提升。同樣地，如果你看 trailing earnings growth（ trailing 獲利成長），我們看到世界其他地區的獲利收縮幅度比美國更大，而現在我們開始看到這些地區觸底，並且收窄了跌幅，所以這在各地都是真實發生的。
17:48
🎙️
is that the US cycle only that's the question yeah that's been it's been um kind of all my comments were mostly
我認為不同的是，這種缺乏利率敏感度的情況是美國獨有的，這就是為什麼我認為在升息週期中，美國比較沒有受到那種影響的衝擊。所以很有趣，我或許可以補充一下，讓我們談談加拿大，因為我們都在這裡試圖弄清楚利率走勢會如何，看起來是會下降。
17:55
🎙️
about the us we have seen that more kind of positive lift play out to a lesser extent elsewhere so if we look at the
我們還需要它下降多少？我的意思是沒有人知道得很確切，但我確實認為加拿大是一個對利率敏感的經濟體，你們的抵押貸款期限比我們在美國的短得多。好的一面是，你們有更多的空間可以降低利率，某種程度上是因為在通膨方面取得了更多進展。
18:03
🎙️
earnings cycle or the profit cycle we have seen now about a year after the US profit margin stabilized we started to
加拿大銀行已經表達了真正開始降息的意願，所以...嗯，這大概就是我會如何看待這件事的方式。嗯，我認為加拿大比美國有更多的降息空間或預期會降息更多。我認為最終的成長推動仍有待觀察（TBD），因為即使銀行降息，利率仍可能高於 2020 年或 2021 年的水平。
18:10
🎙️
see um margin stabilize in Europe in Japan Canada even um and in some Emerging Markets so kind of we are
看到歐洲、日本、加拿大甚至一些新興市場的利潤率穩定下來，所以我們...
18:19
🎙️
seeing this lagged uh bit of a bit of a profit lift in in the rest of the world same thing if you look at you know
看到世界其他地區出現這種滯後的利潤提升。同樣地，如果你看...
18:26
🎙️
trailing earnings growth um we saw kind of Greater earnings contractions in the rest of the world than we did in the
過去十二個月的盈利增長，我們看到世界其他地區的盈利收縮幅度比美國更大。
18:33
🎙️
US and now we're starting to see those bottom out and kind of narrow those declines so that all is true out
美國，現在我們開始看到這些觸底反彈並縮小跌幅，所以這一切在各地都適用。
18:39
🎙️
everywhere I think what's different is the kind of lack of interest rate sensitivity is is pretty pretty unique
我認為不同之處在於，對利率敏感度不足這一點相當獨特。
18:45
🎙️
to the US which is why I think during the hiking cycle the US was kind of more buffeted from that impact so interesting
對於美國而言，這就是為什麼我認為在升息週期中，美國受到的衝擊更大，所以很有趣。
18:53
🎙️
I might just add on to that so let's talk about Canada because we're all sitting here trying to fure figure out
我想補充一點，我們來談談加拿大吧，因為我們都在這裡試圖弄清楚
18:59
🎙️
where the interest rate story is going here which which looks like it's coming down how much more do we need it to come
這裡的利率走向如何，看起來利率正在下降，我們還需要它下降多少？
19:05
🎙️
down I I mean no one knows exactly but I I do think that Canada is a rate sensitive economy you guys have much
我是說，沒有人確切知道，但我確實認為加拿大是一個對利率敏感的經濟體，你們有著比美國短得多的
19:12
🎙️
shorter um term mortgages than we have in the US um you the good thing is that you have a lot more room to bring
抵押貸款期限比我們美國的短得多。好消息是，你們有更大的空間可以將
19:19
🎙️
interest rates down to some extent because there's been more progress on inflation the Bank of Canada has
利率在某種程度上調降，因為通膨方面已取得更多進展，加拿大央行已經
19:24
🎙️
expressed a willingness to really start cutting interest rates so um that's kind of how how I would think about it um
表達了真正開始降息的意願，所以，這就是我對此的看法。
19:31
🎙️
more you know more room for cuts or more Cuts expected in Canada than in the US I think the ultimate growth lift is still
換句話說，加拿大比美國有更多的降息空間，或者說預期會有更多的降息。我認為最終的經濟增長提振仍
19:40
🎙️
TBD because even as the the bank Cuts rates rates are still likely to be higher than they were in 2020 or 2021
有待確定，因為即使央行降息，利率仍可能高於2020年或2021年的水平。
19:47
🎙️
right so it's not clear just how much of a growth lift you'll see across the board but certainly a better backdrop
是的，所以目前尚不清楚整體經濟增長會提升多少，但背景無疑會比去年更好
19:53
🎙️
than you know Canada was seeing last year especially the back half of last year really interesting so up off the
尤其是去年下半年，真的很有趣，所以從谷底回升，關於我們目前的狀況
20:00
🎙️
bottom um in terms of sort of where we sit um here's another question coming in so any comments on the 10year to the
嗯，這裡有另一個問題進來，關於10年期對2年期的收益率曲線有什麼評論嗎
20:06
🎙️
two-year curve um yeah ultimately let's let's talk about sort of the the inversion the unwind what you've seen in
嗯，最終我們來談談倒掛以及解除倒掛，你在那些市場中看到的情況
20:14
🎙️
that uh in those markets yeah it's a great question um so we've obviously seen that curve now
是的，這是個很好的問題，所以我們很明顯看到收益率曲線現在
20:21
🎙️
flatten and you would you know in order to be in a normal environment you would want that curve to steepen again um but
變平了，你知道在正常環境下，你會希望收益率曲線再次變陡峭
20:28
🎙️
it's been kind of inverted for so long now um you know is there is there something specific about the question
但它現在倒掛的時間實在太久了，你知道這個問題是否有特定的
20:33
🎙️
about the impact of the economy or the impact to the markets of this curve um it just sort of a question of uh they
關於經濟影響或對市場影響的考量，或者這只是個
20:40
🎙️
became positive yeah just any comments is actually is actually the way it is I mean I I guess ultimately let's go with
變成正數的問題，是的，只是任何評論，實際上，實際情況是這樣，我的意思是，我想最終我們希望看到
20:45
🎙️
the steepener like it should steepen do we expect to to steepen what what would we watch for to to kind of keep an eye
收益率曲線變陡峭，它應該要變陡峭，我們預期它會變陡峭嗎，我們應該關注什麼來
20:52
🎙️
on that and and ultimately I guess does it take out the recession risk I mean that's sort of one of the things that
密切留意這點，最終，我想這是否能消除衰退風險，我的意思是，這是你
20:56
🎙️
you want to look for with that I gotcha so yeah I think my view would be over the next year so these curves should
想要透過這個指標來觀察的事情之一，我明白了，是的，所以我想我的看法是，在未來一年內，這些收益率曲線應該
21:03
🎙️
steepen it's not normal to have an inverted or a flat yield curve right and we now have a Fed cutting which which
會變陡峭，收益率曲線倒掛或持平是不正常的，對吧，而現在聯準會正在降息，這
21:08
🎙️
helps that happen and if we have growth hold up and inflation kind of stick around then that that may um lift the
有助於收益率曲線變陡峭，如果我們的經濟增長保持強勁，通膨也持續維持在一定水準，那麼這可能會
21:14
🎙️
long end a bit I think as a recession indicator It's tricky because the yield curve is a tried and- true recession
讓長天期收益率稍微上升，我認為作為衰退指標，這有點棘手，因為收益率曲線是一個經過時間考驗的衰退
21:21
🎙️
indicator we have it in some of our models um but it it didn't work to call our recession right and there's lots of
指標，我們在一些模型中也有使用它，但它並沒有成功預測我們的衰退，對吧，而且有很多
21:27
🎙️
reasons why we can all about why that that is but it didn't properly or hasn't properly signaled a recession so it's
原因可以解釋為什麼會這樣，但它沒有正確地或尚未正確地發出衰退信號，所以我不清楚
21:34
🎙️
not clear to me that if it uninverted and is positively soed again that means that we're in the clear I think maybe we
如果它解除倒掛並再次呈現正斜率，是否就意味著我們脫離險境了，我想也許我們
21:40
🎙️
want to look at other things like we want to look at the labor market we want to look at you know hiring intentions
應該看看其他指標，比如勞動力市場，我們想看看招聘意願
21:45
🎙️
The Profit cycle all this other stuff um just because I think it's one indicator we can look at it but maybe it it hasn't
獲利循環等等這些其他因素，因為我認為收益率曲線是我們可以參考的一個指標，但或許它並未
21:52
🎙️
been as reliable this cycle so we may want to lean a little bit more on kind of other other bodies of work fantastic
在這個循環中不如以往可靠，所以我們可能想多參考其他研究成果，這很棒
21:58
🎙️
and you're bringing those to us which is great other question coming in here um Kate do you do you expect further
而您將這些帶給我們，這很好，有另一個問題進來，嗯，Kate，您是否預期科技類股會有進一步
22:04
🎙️
expansion within the tech sector it's a good question after earnings last night yes yeah it's a great question so I'm
擴張嗎？這是個好問題，昨晚財報季結束後，是的，沒錯，這是個很棒的問題，所以我不
22:11
🎙️
not a tech analyst so I don't know that I really have a view um I think our internal analysts at Fidelity are are
是科技分析師，所以我不認為我真的有看法，嗯，我認為我們富達內部的分析師對這個類股的中期
22:17
🎙️
positive on the medium term or longer term for this sector so I would I would take them they're the
或長期是持正面看法的，所以我會，我會採納他們的意見，他們是
22:22
🎙️
experts perfect so let's come uh a little bit back to you mentioned actually India is an area that you cover
專家。好的，讓我們回到，您剛才提到印度也是您研究的
22:29
🎙️
as well it's had a gang busters Equity story for some time um let's talk a little bit about the US dollar maybe
範圍，它在一段時間內有著驚人的股市表現，嗯，讓我們稍微談談美元，也許
22:37
🎙️
where investors want to go if if you do or don't see weakening let's talk a bit about the dollar and then ultimately
如果您認為美元會或不會走弱，投資者想去哪裡？讓我們談談美元，然後最終
22:42
🎙️
what it means for the rest of the world in terms of investing definitely so our great
這對世界其他地區的投資意味著什麼？當然可以，我們那位很棒的
22:48
🎙️
inflation analyst that I mentioned he also covers foreign exchange and he's had a view that over the longer term the
通膨分析師，我剛才提到的，他也負責研究外匯，他有一個看法，即長期來看，
22:56
🎙️
dollar should weaken for the reasons that we all kind of know inflation um or I'm sorry not inflation us
美元應該會走弱，原因我們都知道，通膨，哦抱歉，不是通膨，美國
23:02
🎙️
exceptionalism should fade it can't last forever um you know deficit eventually might have an impact so over the medium
的例外主義應該會消退，它不可能永遠持續，嗯，你知道赤字最終可能會產生影響，所以在中期
23:08
🎙️
term we would expect the dollar to weaken from these um you know very rich levels relative to history generally
內，我們預期美元會從這些，嗯，你知道相對於歷史非常高的水準走弱，一般來說
23:16
🎙️
that is a good thing for Global growth it's a good thing for Global Financial conditions everybody kind of gets to
這對全球增長是件好事，對全球金融狀況也是件好事，當美元開始走弱時，大家通常都會
23:22
🎙️
breathe generally a sigh of relief when the um when the dollar starts to weaken in terms of where money money might go I
松一口氣，至於資金可能會流向哪裡，我
23:30
🎙️
mean yes historically when the dollar weekends money flows into um places like Emerging Markets more sort of higher
的意思是，是的，歷史上當美元走弱時，資金會流入，嗯，像新興市場這樣的地方，以及更多收益率較高的
23:37
🎙️
yielding credit instruments and so we we could expect all that to happen especially if us growth is still
信用工具，所以我們可以預期所有這些都會發生，特別是如果美國的增長仍然
23:43
🎙️
generally folding up as we expect the other thing that's happening too is money is um to some extent flowing back
如我們預期般放緩，另一件正在發生的事情是，資金在某種程度上正在流回
23:50
🎙️
into domestic markets so foreign investors like the Japanese investor we spend a lot of time going to Japan
國內市場，所以像日本投資者這樣的外國投資者，我們花了很多時間去日本
23:56
🎙️
meeting with investors there you know they're as as Japanese yields have gone up they've started to take money home
與當地的投資者會面，你知道，隨著日本收益率上升，他們已經開始將資金帶回家
24:01
🎙️
and invest invest domestically um as well so those are kind of that's our view on the direction of the dollar over
以及在國內投資，所以這大致上是我們對美元中期走勢的看法，以及一些連鎖效應。
24:07
🎙️
the medium term and some of the knock on effects um the dollar has been Rich for a long time so calling that inflection
美元已經強勢很久了，所以要說現在是轉折點，我認為很難判斷。
24:14
🎙️
point I think is hard to do uh but that would be kind of our longer term uh kind of portfolio view is there anything else
但那大致是我們的長期投資組合觀點。還有其他關於擴張的問題嗎？我們從這裡出發。
24:21
🎙️
on terms of expansion from where we go here so we've got earnings in for Q2 there's lots of questions about sort of
我們已經有了第二季的財報，有許多關於下半年走勢的疑問。
24:28
🎙️
where we go for the second half of the Year there there are questions about the US election and what that means for the
有關於美國大選的疑問，以及無論結果如何對經濟的影響。
24:33
🎙️
economy one way or the other but but really the FED story is there and what what happens from here what sort of
但真正的焦點還是聯準會的動向，接下來會發生什麼？
24:40
🎙️
broadly do you sketch out for the second half of this year do do we see a lot happen or in fact is it um just kind of
對於今年下半年，你大致上有什麼樣的規劃？我們會看到很多事發生嗎？或者其實只是在
24:47
🎙️
waiting for these rate cuts to kick in yeah I think it's going to be an exciting second half of the year I think
等待這些降息開始發酵？是的，我認為下半年將會很精彩。
24:53
🎙️
um we're going to have some fed Cuts we have you know all Market participants investors are looking and overanalyzing
我認為我們將迎來聯準會的一些降息。你知道所有市場參與者、投資人都在關注，並且過度分析
25:00
🎙️
you know every jobs data that comes out so I think it's going to be an exciting time um the other thing that I think is
每一份公布的就業數據，所以我認為這將會是一個刺激的時刻。
25:07
🎙️
going to matter is you know the FED is bringing um bringing policy rates down so it's bringing cash rates and money
另一件我認為很重要的事是，聯準會正在調降政策利率，所以它正在調降現金利率和貨幣市場利率。
25:13
🎙️
market rates down there's a lot of money sitting in in Money Market funds in the US now that that those money market
現在有大量資金停泊在美國的貨幣市場基金中，這些貨幣市場
25:19
🎙️
Investments aren't as attractive right so there may be people that as a Fed is cutting rates their investors are more
投資的吸引力已經下降了。所以當聯準會持續降息，投資人可能會
25:25
🎙️
you know looking for a yield elsewhere or looking for something elsewhere if they're going not no longer going to be
更積極地去其他地方尋找收益，或者尋找其他投資標的，因為他們將不再能
25:29
🎙️
getting 5% on their cash so that could that could go into other parts of the fixed income Market it could go more
從現金中獲得 5% 的報酬。所以這些資金可能會流入固定收益市場的其他領域，也可能更
25:35
🎙️
broadly into Equity like yeah yeah just yes so that would be okay really
廣泛地流入股市。是的，沒錯，那將會非常
25:44
🎙️
interesting and I mean in terms of the equity Market broadening story is that is that something that you you can
有趣。就股市的擴散題材（broadening story）而言，這是你能
25:51
🎙️
comment on just I mean it was it was a truly bifurcated Market um there's been broadening there's a small cap story
評論的嗎？我的意思是，這是一個真正分歧的市場，確實出現了擴散，小型股的題材
25:57
🎙️
that seems to be working its way through um much of the discussion and certain types of consensus what what do you see
似乎正在發酵，討論很多，也形成某種共識。你對於
26:03
🎙️
on kind of the equities side of things the broadening story is really the question is that is that something that
股市方面有什麼看法？擴散題材真的是關鍵問題，那就是：這是不是一件...
26:08
🎙️
you see yeah we do see some evidence of that happening so um we see some evidence in broadening and fundamentals
是的，我們確實看到一些證據顯示這種情況正在發生，所以我們看到基本面擴散的一些證據
26:16
🎙️
so those earnings revisions that I talked about they're now starting to get more positive for all these non- US
所以我之前提到的那些獲利預期修正，現在對於所有這些非美國地區都開始變得更加正面
26:21
🎙️
regions for midcap to to a lesser extent for small cap um and so that because we believe that stocks ultimately fall
對中型股也是如此，小型股則程度較輕，因此因為我們相信股價最終取決於基本面
26:29
🎙️
fundamentals that kind of fundamental broadening we do think could provoke some some broadening in in performance
那種基本面的擴散，我們確實認為也可能引發一些表現上的擴散
26:35
🎙️
as well the other thing is that um as the FED brings rates down it should give somewhat of a lift to these more
另外一點是，當聯準會降息時，應該會對這些更受
26:41
🎙️
interest rate kind of equity type categories which which could allow for some broadening as well so we're kind of
利率影響的股票類型類別有所提振，這也可能讓擴散情況更加明顯，所以我們正在尋找
26:47
🎙️
looking for it it's it's just early evidence at this point but we do think that there is some fundamental backing
這方面的跡象，目前只是初步證據，但我們確實認為有基本面支撐
26:52
🎙️
for that happening over the next you know six 12 months and from sort of a a risk perspective Ive um are there less
讓這種情況在未來，你知道的，六到十二個月內發生，而從風險角度來看，我有，我們在過去一週左右
27:01
🎙️
we talked about this through a few different discussions over the last week or so but is there really a fed put and
透過幾次不同的討論談過這個問題，但是否真的存在聯準會 Put（護盤機制），而這
27:07
🎙️
this is almost a fed put in another way than what we meant 10 years ago for instance but the idea that the FED has
與我們十年前所指的聯準會 Put 幾乎是另一種形式，但這個想法是，聯準會有
27:13
🎙️
quite a lot of levers to pull if needed I I think so um and I think we've heard that from the FED we heard it from
相當多的槓桿可以操作，如果需要的話，我認為是的，而且我認為我們已經從聯準會那裡聽到，我們從
27:20
🎙️
Powell uh at Jackson Hole last Friday I mean the FED has expressly said you know that the risk have gone now down from
鮑威爾上週五在傑克森霍爾會議上聽到，我的意思是，聯準會已經明確表示，你知道的，風險已經從
27:30
🎙️
from only on inflation to balance now they're talking about downside risks to the labor market and the good thing is
只關注通膨轉向平衡，現在他們談論的是勞動市場的下行風險，而好消息是
27:35
🎙️
that the FED has has quite a bit of room to cut rates um you know they're 200 bips or so above their estimate of
聯準會有相當大的降息空間，你知道的，他們目前的利率比他們估計的
27:45
🎙️
neutral they've brought inflation down it's not 2% but you know it's two and a half on core pce they're they're getting
中性利率高出約 200 個基點，他們已經把通膨降下來了，雖然不是 2%，但你知道的，核心個人消費支出（PCE）是 2.5%
27:52
🎙️
closer and while we don't think it's going to go all the way to two that's kind of enough progress up to this point
已經越來越接近，雖然我們不認為會完全降到 2%，但到目前為止的進展
27:57
🎙️
to justify cuts and so um to us in a lot of ways this is a safer better backdrop than we were in in say early 20202 when
已經足以證明降息是合理的，所以對我們來說，在很多方面，這比我們在 2020 年初
28:07
🎙️
policy rates were zero and inflation was six right we have we're in a better better place now and that I think that
所處的背景更安全、更好，當時政策利率是零而通膨是六，對吧？我們現在處於一個更好、更好的位置，我認為那個
28:14
🎙️
put is on the table and kind of should give us all a little bit of um you know a little bit of relief and it also
Put（護盤機制）是擺在桌面上的，這應該讓我們所有人都稍微，你知道的，鬆一口氣，而且它也
28:21
🎙️
points to as you mentioned at the beginning the idea of um expansion the business cycle is it has expansion um
指向，正如您一開始提到的，擴張的想法，商業週期是具有擴張性的，嗯
28:28
🎙️
within if you want to just sort of repeat a little bit how we began that on where we are in the
如果您想稍微重複一下我們一開始提到的，關於我們目前在景氣循環中的位置
28:34
🎙️
cycle yes so just to wrap up our yeah our highest conviction view is that we're still in an expansion um when we
是的，總結來說，我們最確信的觀點是我們仍處於擴張期。當我們
28:42
🎙️
look across the profit cycle which is things are still healthy and actually getting better sequentially the credit
觀察整體獲利循環時，情況仍然健康，實際上正逐季改善；在信用循環方面
28:47
🎙️
cycle where things are getting incrementally easier on the bank side Capital Market side monetary policy side
銀行端、資本市場端以及貨幣政策端的條件都逐漸寬鬆
28:53
🎙️
and then the employment cycle is broadly normalizing um all these things are supportive to to just an ongoing
此外，就業循環也正在廣泛地正常化。這些因素都有助於延續
29:00
🎙️
expansion and the fact that the FED has become more attuned to the risk to the employment side I think um increases the
擴張趨勢。而聯準會已更加關注就業面的風險，我認為這提高了
29:06
🎙️
likelihood that we can continue to have expansion because they're paying close attention to those
我們能持續維持擴張的可能性，因為他們正密切關注那些
29:11
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risks hey dernie it's a pleasure to speak with you and thank you so much for joining us on Fidelity connects thank
風險。嘿，Dernie，很榮幸能與您交談，非常感謝您加入富達 Connect，謝謝
29:17
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you I appreciate it have a great [Music]
您，我很感激。祝您有個美好的 [音樂]
