So what goes up must come down and what
is down eventually has to come up.
所以有起必有落，有落終必起。
00:04
So how well do we know the economic cycle
and which sectors tend to perform well during which stages some of those cycles?
那麼，我們對經濟週期的了解有多深？又有哪些行業傾向於在哪些週期階段表現良好？
00:12
And
so in today's video we're going to talk about the four stages of the economic cycle and
how different industries and sectors tended to perform, as far as investment wise,
during each of those.
因此，在今天的影片中，我們將討論經濟週期的四個階段，以及不同行業和板塊在每個階段的投資表現。
00:24
Let's get started So hello everybody.
讓我們開始吧。大家好。
00:34
Welcome back to
the channel!
歡迎回到頻道！
00:35
If I haven't met you yet, just to provide education so that we can make the
proper decisions for ourselves, for our futures, for our families.
如果我們還沒見過面，我只是想提供教育，讓我們能為自己、為未來、為家人做出正確的決定。
00:47
And let's get started.
讓我們開始吧。
00:48
So
the the business cycle is a recurring pattern over time that happens.
所以，商業週期是隨時間推移而發生的循環模式。
00:54
It's a recurring
pattern of recession, recovery, expansion, contraction.
它是衰退、復甦、擴張和收縮的循環模式。
00:58
It's a naturally occurring thing
that happens with our economy.
這是經濟中自然發生的現象。
01:01
These patterns tend to play out over anywhere from one to a
ten year period of time.
這些模式通常會在一到十年的時間內展現出來。
01:08
However it is important to point out that there can be unforeseen
macroeconomic events such as wars, pandemics, scientific breakthroughs that can affect the cycle
and push it into the next stage of the cycle.
There are also some industries that are more
sensitive to the changes in in the cycles than others and there are some industries that are
more durable.
此外，有些行業對週期變化的敏感度較高，而有些行業則更具韌性。
01:36
So for example, durable goods seem to outperform in troughs, whereas defensive
industries such as food and pharmaceuticals have very little sensitivity to the overall business
cycle because everyone's going to make food and
So the first stage of the economic cycle is expansion and expansion is
often looked upon as the start of a new cycle and this occurs after a trough or an initial
downturn in the market of the economy.
經濟週期的第一個階段是擴張期，擴張期通常被視為新週期的開始，這發生在經濟市場觸底或最初下滑之後。
02:11
This period is marked as economic improvement.
There's a little bit more consumer spending, unemployment is starting to recover, and
businesses are starting to invest more.
這段時期以經濟改善為標誌。消費者支出稍微增加，失業率開始回升，企業也開始加大投資。
02:23
The second stage of the economic cycle is what
is called the peak and the peak is the very top of the cycle and this is a period of very high
(sometimes too high) investor sentiment.
經濟週期的第二個階段被稱為頂峰期，這是週期的最高點，這段時期投資人情緒非常高漲（有時甚至過熱）。
02:34
There's a lot of high spending, a high borrowing.
這段時期有著大量的高支出和高借貸。
02:36
This is
where we start to see inflation being a problem, as what we just saw.
這就是我們開始看到通膨成為問題的地方，正如我們剛剛所見。
02:42
High employment and other
indicators are that property and commodities prices are often very high and we can also see
that the stock stock market is starting to top
高就業率和其他指標顯示房地產和大宗商品價格往往非常高，我們也可以看到股市在此時開始觸頂。
02:53
off at this point in time.
23.
02:55
As I mentioned before,
this is where concern about inflation and high prices are coming in and it's an indicator that
the economy needs to be cooled off and slowed
如我之前所提，這就是對通膨和高物價的擔憂浮現之時，這是一個指標，表明經濟需要稍微降溫和放緩。
03:05
down just a little bit.
25.
03:06
So the the third stage
is contraction and contraction is a period where, it's in between a peak and a trough,
the economy is starting to slow down, they're entering recession territory, consumers
are a little wearier and they're spending less
they might be saving more cash, and businesses
and investments are slowing down.
他們可能會儲蓄更多現金，企業和投資也在放緩。
03:26
They also might be looking to pour a little bit more cash.
他們也可能尋求持有更多現金。
03:30
This
period is also marked by rising unemployment, but inflation rates are still rising at that point in
time.
這個時期也伴隨著失業率上升，但通膨率在當時仍在上升。
03:39
It seems that the market has already topped, but it's starting to fall a little bit and the
short-term bond rates have peaked and yields are starting to fall as well.
市場似乎已經觸頂，但開始小幅下跌，短期債券殖利率已經觸頂，殖利率也開始下跌。
03:49
The final, the fourth
stage, is the trough and in a trough the economy is most likely already in a recession.
最後，第四個階段是谷底，在谷底時經濟很可能已經陷入衰退。
03:56
Confidence
and spending are weak.
信心和支出疲軟。
03:58
There's high unemployment, production is falling, some businesses may go
bankrupt sadly.
失業率高，產量下降，可悲的是有些企業可能會破產。
04:03
It is at a time that the stock market is actually bottomed out and folks are
definitely holding on to more cash at this period of time.
此時股市實際上已經觸底，人們在這段時間絕對會持有更多現金。
04:12
Also commodities and real estate prices
are very weak.
此外，大宗商品和房地產價格也非常疲軟。
04:15
So even though this is a pretty rough time, it is a good time to find bargains
with all the prices being compressed.
所以，儘管這是一段相當艱難的時期，但由於所有價格都被壓縮，這也是尋找便宜貨的好時機。
04:24
And then the process kind of starts all over again.
然後這個過程會重新開始。
04:27
While
the duration of each stage you know and that's the economic cycle as a whole is unknown, the process
tends (the process) tends to be the same.
雖然每個階段的持續時間（即整個經濟週期）是未知的，但這個過程往往是一樣的。
04:36
So which sectors tend to outperform and underperform during
each cycle?
那麼，哪些行業在每個週期中往往表現優異或表現不佳呢？
04:41
Let's take a look at this graph here from our friends at Fidelity Investments and it
serves as a nice illustration and we'll kind of walk through that a little bit.
So just looking
here at this graph, we got a couple examples.
我們現在來看這張圖，這裡有幾個例子。
04:53
So during the expansion phase of the economic cycle,
consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, and information technology (IT) are doing very
very well, whereas energy, telecoms, utilities,
health care and consumer staples are tending to
underperform.
醫療類股和必需消費類股則往往表現落後。
05:10
As we move on to the peak of the cycle, industrials, information technology are
doing well, whereas materials and utilities are underperforming.
當我們進入週期的頂峰時，工業類股和資訊科技類股表現良好，而原物料類股和公用事業類股則表現落後。
05:20
As we move into contraction,
consumer staples are still doing well.
當我們進入收縮期時，必需消費類股仍然表現良好。
05:25
Energy, health care, materials, and utilities are still
outperforming.
能源類股、醫療類股、原物料類股和公用事業類股仍然表現優於大盤。
05:31
However consumer discretionary items, IT are starting to underperform.
然而，可選消費類股和資訊科技類股開始表現落後。
05:36
Then
finally in the recession or in trough phase of the economic cycle, consumer staples, health
care, telecoms, and utilities tend to outperform
最後，在經濟週期的衰退或谷底階段，必需消費類股、醫療類股、電信類股和公用事業類股往往表現優於大盤，
05:48
because these are items that are going to be
needed no matter what cycle we're in.Folks are always going to need food.
因為這些是無論身處哪個週期都必需的物品。人們總是需要食物。
05:53
They're always
going to need health care.
他們總是需要醫療照護。
05:55
They're always going to need communications and utilities, whereas
what's underperforming are industrials (there's not as much production), IT (there's not as
much innovation), financials and materials
tend to underperform the overall market.
So I hope that this kind of illustrated and was a good introduction into the economic
cycle, the four stages of the economic cycle.
這些類股往往表現落後於整體市場。希望這樣的說明能讓您對經濟週期及其四個階段有很好的初步了解。
06:23
As you can imagine that the true challenge here
is timing each stage of the cycle and adjusting allocations accordingly.
可想而知，真正的挑戰在於準確判斷週期的每個階段，並相應地調整資產配置。
06:32
And while there are many
different tools that are available and leading indicators to check, one can't simply predict that
with 100% certainly over time.
雖然有許多可用的工具和領先指標可以參考，但長期而言，沒有人能百分之百準確地預測。
06:44
So which is why having a well-diversified portfolio not just in
multiple sectors, but in investment and tax types, tailored to your specific financial
needs, risk tolerance, time horizon,
