00:00
[Music] A student once asked her master how to make money in the stock market.
[音樂] 一位學生曾問她的師傅，如何在股市賺錢。
00:09
The master replied, "Well, that's easy.
師傅回答：「嗯，這很簡單。
00:11
Just identify a few stocks that are going to go up and you are sorted." The student
只要找出幾檔會上漲的股票，你就搞定了。」學生
00:13
scratched her head and wondered, "But how does one identify stocks that are going to go up?" The master took a deep
撓著頭疑惑道：「但要怎麼找出會上漲的股票呢？」師傅深深
00:20
sigh and replied, "Ah, that's not easy.
嘆了一口氣，回答：「啊，那可不容易。
00:23
I've been trying to figure out that for the past 20 years." The master is right.
過去20年我一直在試著搞懂這件事。」師傅說得沒錯。
00:27
In the stock market, picking good stocks is one thing and picking good stocks that are also going to go up is another.
在股市中，挑選好股票是一回事，挑選會上漲的好股票又是另一回事。
00:34
Little surprise then that stock investors often find their stocks going nowhere or going downhill when the rest
難怪股票投資人常發現，當大盤
00:40
of the market seems to be doing just fine.
表現似乎還不錯時，他們的股票卻原地踏步或一路下滑。
00:42
And why just stock investors?
而且，為什麼只有股票投資人呢？
00:45
Fund investors can also witness this phenomenon in their portfolios.
基金投資人也能在他們的投資組合中見證這種現象。
00:49
This task of identifying well-performing stocks is further complicated by the
要找出表現優異的股票，這項任務因
00:52
fact that there are over 5500 listed companies.
上市公司超過5500家而變得更加複雜。
00:56
If we consider the BSC now, is there a way out?
如果我們考慮BSC（波段循環），是否有解決之道？
00:59
Yes. And we're going to talk about that in today's
有的。我們將在今天的
01:11
video. Hello and welcome to ET money's YouTube channel.
影片中討論這個問題。大家好，歡迎來到 ET money 的 YouTube 頻道。
01:15
Today we will discuss how you can use sectors to arrive at promising stocks.
今天我們將討論如何利用產業板塊來找出具潛力的股票。
01:20
Now unlike the number of stocks the number of sectors is quite limited and by thinking in terms of
現在，與股票數量不同，產業板塊的數量相當有限，透過從
01:25
sectors you can simplify your task a lot.
產業板塊的角度思考，你可以大幅簡化這項任務。
01:27
Not just this by focusing on sectors you can also reduce the chances of investing in a stock that goes
不僅如此，透過專注於特定產業，您還能降低投資到停滯不前、或在其他股票大漲時反而下跌的股票的機率。
01:34
nowhere or falls when other stocks are racing.
或停滯不前、或在其他股票大漲時反而下跌。
01:37
Now this technique of shifting your portfolio as per sectoral trends is called sector rotation and we will
這種根據產業趨勢調整投資組合的技巧，就稱為「產業輪動」，我們今天將會詳細討論。
01:42
discuss it in detail today.
我們今天將會詳細討論。
01:45
Now this video belongs to our playlist on how to pick stocks.
這支影片屬於我們「如何挑選股票」的播放清單。
01:48
to explore similar videos you can explore it the link is in the description okay now this video is
若要探索類似的影片，您可以點擊描述中的連結。好的，這支影片分為兩個部分：
01:53
divided into two parts why sector rotation matters and how you can do it let's begin with the first
若要探索類似的影片，您可以點擊描述中的連結。好的，這支影片分為兩個部分：為什麼產業輪動很重要，以及您該如何執行。讓我們先從第一部分開始。
01:59
[Music] one sector rotation is important because
[音樂] 產業輪動之所以重要，是因為
02:07
different sectors of the economy do well at different times for instance in 2024 the real estate telecom auto and capital
經濟中的不同產業會在不同的時間表現出色。舉例來說，在 2024 年，房地產、電信、汽車和資本財產業表現優異；而在 2020 年，表現最好的產業則是 IT、醫療保健和消費類股。
02:16
goods sectors did In 2020, the best sectors were IT, healthcare, and consumption.
表現優異；而在 2020 年，表現最好的產業則是 IT、醫療保健和消費類股。
02:24
In 2016, the energy sector stood out at the top.
在 2016 年，能源產業脫穎而出，位居榜首。
02:25
Quite naturally, when a sector does well, the stocks belonging to that sector also do well or vice versa.
很自然地，當一個產業表現出色時，屬於該產業的股票也會表現良好，反之亦然。
02:33
So, by focusing on sectors that are in a sweet spot, you can pick stocks that are
很自然地，當一個產業表現出色時，屬於該產業的股票也會表現良好，反之亦然。
02:36
poised to do well.
蓄勢待發。
02:38
And that's what makes sector rotation an appealing technique.
因此，透過專注於處於甜蜜點的產業，您可以挑選到那些蓄勢待發的股票。
02:40
Now, as discussed at the start of the video, focusing on sectors also helps in shortlisting the most deserving stocks
如同影片開頭所討論的，專注於產業也有助於從數千個選項中，篩選出最值得投資的股票。
02:46
from the thousands of options available.
這也是為什麼產業輪動是一個如此吸引人的技巧。
02:48
It also reduces the chances of being invested in stocks that don't enjoy tailwinds or that actually suffer from
它也降低了投資到那些沒有順風（tailwinds）助益，或實際上因經濟或商業週期而面臨逆風（headwinds）的股票的機率。
02:55
headwinds due to the economic or business cycle.
如同影片開頭所討論的，專注於產業也有助於從數千個選項中，篩選出最值得投資的股票。
02:58
But why do different sectors do well at different times?
但為什麼不同產業會在不同時間表現出色呢？
03:02
Let me explain with an example.
讓我用一個例子來解釋。
03:04
In geography, you would have read about the tectonic plates under the earth's
在地理學中，你應該讀過關於地球表面下的板塊構造。
03:06
surface. The movement of these plates has resulted in the formation of the continents and oceans that we see today.
這些板塊的運動造就了我們今天所見的大洲和海洋。
03:11
Like these plates underpin the movement of land masses.
就像這些板塊支撐著陸地板塊的運動一樣。
03:15
Economic or business cycles are often responsible for market movements.
經濟或商業週期往往是市場波動的原因。
03:20
The typical economic or business cycle has four phases.
典型的經濟或商業週期有四個階段。
03:23
Recovery, expansion, slowdown and contraction.
復甦、擴張、放緩和收縮。
03:27
Now these four phases are characterized by varying levels of economic and business activity.
這四個階段的特點是經濟和商業活動水平各不相同。
03:32
Different sectors and stocks gain prominence depending upon where we are in the business cycle at the moment.
不同的板塊和股票會因我們當時在商業週期中所處的位置而變得突出。
03:40
For instance, during the recovery phase, the sectors that gain prominence include
例如，在復甦階段，變得突出的板塊包括
03:42
financials, consumer discretionary, real estate and metals.
金融、非必需消費品、房地產和金屬。
03:47
This happens because economic and business conditions are conducive to the sectors.
這是因為經濟和商業環境對這些板塊有利。
03:53
Similarly, when the economic cycle goes through a slump, the sectors that stand out to
同樣，當經濟週期經歷低迷時，能夠
03:56
benefit include IT, consumer staples, pharma and utilities.
受益的板塊包括資訊科技、必需消費品、醫藥和公用事業。
04:01
Now these sectors are defensive in nature and hence when the economy is slowing down they tend to
這些板塊具有防禦性，因此當經濟放緩時，它們往往會
04:06
be better than the rest.
比其他板塊表現更好。
04:09
So the economic or business cycle is a reason why different sectors do well at different
所以經濟或商業週期是不同板塊在不同時間
04:12
times. Now this brings us to the second part of this video.
表現出色的原因。現在這就帶我們來到影片的第二部分。
04:17
How can one apply the technique of sector rotation at the portfolio level?
如何在投資組合層面應用板塊輪動的技巧？
04:21
Let's now see that in the next section.
我們現在就在下一部分來看看。
04:24
[Music] At its core, the techniques of sector rotation is about identifying which
[音樂] 本質上，板塊輪動技巧的核心在於識別哪些
04:33
sectors are favorably placed at the moment and then investing in them.
板塊目前處於有利位置，然後進行投資。
04:39
One can use fundamental factors to pick such sectors or one can take a tactical
投資者可以使用基本面因素來挑選這些板塊，也可以採取戰術性的
04:42
route. Now since the idea is to rotate sector, it's important to also change sectors from time to time.
策略。既然目的是進行板塊輪動，那麼定時更換板塊也很重要。
04:49
The first and the most straightforward way to pick winning sectors is to track economic and
挑選潛力板塊最直接的方法，就是追蹤經濟和
04:53
business indicators.
商業指標。
04:55
There can be multitude of economic and business indicators and admittedly tracking them
經濟和商業指標有很多種，不可否認，對於散戶投資者來說追蹤它們
04:59
is not easy for the retail investor but getting a sense of some of them can help you assess where we may be in the
並不輕鬆，但了解其中一些指標可以幫助你評估目前經濟可能處於
05:05
business cycle and consequently pick appropriate sectors and exit the inappropriate ones.
商業循環的哪個階段，進而挑選合適的板塊並退出不合適的板塊。
05:12
Now some of the indicators that you may want to keep on your radar are economic activity, credit
你可能需要關注的指標包括經濟活動、信貸
05:16
growth, capital expenditure, interest rates, corporate earnings etc.
增長、資本支出、利率、企業盈利等。
05:22
In an expansionary phase, the economic activity starts to rebound.
在擴張階段，經濟活動開始反彈。
05:27
Credit growth starts to rise.
信貸增長開始上升。
05:27
Capeex increases.
資本支出（CAPEX）增加。
05:28
Interest rates start going down.
利率開始下降。
05:29
Corporate earnings start to improve.
企業盈利開始改善。
05:31
Amid such conditions, financials, consumer discretionary, real estate, metals tend to do well as economic and
在這種情況下，金融、非必需消費品、房地產、金屬類股往往表現良好，因為經濟和
05:38
business conditions are conducive to them.
商業環境對它們有利。
05:41
It consumer staples and pharma tend to take a backseat as the focus shifts away from defensives to cyclical.
必需消費品和製藥類股往往退居二線，因為焦點從防禦性板塊轉向周期性板塊。
05:48
Now as the cycle hits the peak, economic activity starts to stabilize.
當循環達到頂峰時，經濟活動開始趨於穩定。
05:54
Interest rates start to rise to tame inflation.
為了抑制通貨膨脹，利率開始上升。
05:55
Corporate earnings are strong and unemployment is low.
企業獲利強勁，失業率處於低檔。
06:00
Amid such conditions, sectors like financials, consumer discretionary, energy and
在這種情況下，金融、非必需消費、能源和
06:03
metals tend to be in the forefront.
金屬等類股往往會站在最前線。
06:05
However, as this cycle subsequently enters into the contraction and slum phases, these indicators reverse course
然而，隨著這個循環隨後進入收縮和衰退階段，這些指標也會
06:12
as well. Amid such conditions, defensive sectors like IT, pharma and utilities should be your choice.
逆轉。在這種情況下，防禦性類股，如資訊科技、製藥和公用事業，應該是您的選擇。
06:20
Now this is a fundamental way of assessing the economic or business cycle and rotating
這是評估經濟或商業循環，並據此
06:23
sectors based on that.
輪動類股的一種基本方法。
06:26
Similarly, one can also check sector and industry specific metrics to understand how a
同樣地，也可以檢查特定類股和產業的指標，以了解某個
06:30
sector is positioned at the moment.
類股目前的定位。
06:34
The profitability drivers of some key sectors are on your screen for
一些關鍵類股的獲利驅動因素已顯示在您的螢幕上，
06:38
Now the next strategy is to pick sectors based on growth.
接下來的策略是根據成長性來挑選類股。
06:43
Sectors that are favorably placed at any given point in time enjoy above average growth
在任何特定時間點處於有利地位的類股，享有高於平均的
06:46
rates. The opposite is true for sectors that are suffering at a point in time.
成長率。對於在某個時間點表現不佳的類股，則正好相反。
06:51
Now, one way to assess if a sector is growing reasonably fast is to compare its revenue growth with the growth in
評估一個類股是否成長足夠快的一個方法，是將其營收成長與
06:57
nominal GDP.
名目 GDP 的成長進行比較。
06:59
Now, India's nominal GDP growth for FI25 is estimated to be 9.9%.
印度在 2025 財年（FI25）的名目 GDP 成長率估計為 9.9%。
07:03
Let's see which sectors have revenue growth more than 9.9% and which have a lower number.
讓我們看看哪些類股的營收成長率超過 9.9%，哪些低於這個數字。
07:10
The sectors that stand out include realy, consumer durables, finance, capital goods and
表現突出的類股包括房地產、耐久財消費、金融、資本財和
07:14
healthcare.
醫療保健。
07:16
The lagards are metals, FMCG, utilities, oil and gas and IT.
落後的類股包括金屬、快速消費品、公用事業、石油與天然氣以及 IT。
07:20
Now, another way to highlight outlier sectors is to check its performance versus estimates.
現在，另一個凸顯異常類股的方法是檢視其表現與預估的比較。
07:25
If a sector beats its earnings estimates, it can be a potential outperformer as seen in the
如果某個類股的獲利超越預估，它可能是潛在的表現優異者，如 IT 和金屬類股在 FI21 財報後，
07:30
case of IT and metal sectors post FI21 results and the PSU and telecom sectors post FI23 results.
以及 PSU 和電信類股在 FI23 財報後所見。
07:39
The next strategy is the classic way selecting sectors based on returns and valuations.
下一個策略是基於報酬與估值來挑選類股的經典方法。
07:45
A rather simple way to short list sectors is to look at the near-term returns to last
一個相當簡單的篩選類股方式是觀察近期報酬相對於過去
07:48
one-year returns.
一年報酬的表現。
07:50
Then compare these returns with the returns of a market index such as Nifty 500 or the BSC 500.
然後將這些報酬與市場指數（如 Nifty 500 或 BSC 500）的報酬進行比較。
07:56
This will give you two sets of sectors.
這將給你兩組類股。
07:58
Those that have done better than the market index and those that have lacked behind.
一組表現優於市場指數，另一組則落後。
08:02
Now I can use the former set to write their momentum and the latter set to tap value or take a contrarian bet.
現在我可以用前一組來操作其動能，用後一組來佈局價值或採取逆勢押注。
08:08
For instance, over the last one year, the sectors that have done better than the Nifty 500 include financial
舉例來說，過去一年表現優於 Nifty 500 的類股包括金融
08:14
services, pharma, and consumer durables.
服務、製藥以及耐久財。
08:17
Those that have significantly trailed the Nifty 500 are media, energy, and realy.
顯著落後於 Nifty 500 的類股則是媒體、能源和房地產。
08:22
So to ride momentum, an investor can take exposure to the art performers.
因此，要搭上動能順風車，投資人可以佈局表現優異的類股。
08:27
The same investor can allocate part of the portfolio to lagards to take a value or contrarian bet.
同一位投資人也可以將部分資金配置給落後類股，以採取價值或逆勢押注。
08:33
Now you can also go a bit deeper by assessing the valuation of sectors versus the market valuations.
現在，你也可以透過評估類股估值相對於市場估值來更深入分析。
08:37
For instance, consider the relative valuations of the pharma sector and the nifty 500 in terms of the price to book
舉例來說，考量製藥類股與 Nifty 500 在股價淨值比
08:44
or the PB ratio.
或 PB 比率方面的相對估值。
08:46
Now we have considered the PB ratio as it's a relatively more stable metric than price to earnings or
現在我們已經探討了股價淨值比（PB），因為它是一個相對比本益比或P指標更穩定的指標。
08:51
the P metric.
P指標。
08:53
The pharma sector's PB premium hit a high of 47.4% in December 2024 and a low of just
製藥板塊的PB溢價在2024年12月觸及47.4%的高點，而在2022年9月僅觸及124. 1.2%的低點。
09:00
1.2% in September 2022.
製藥板塊的PB相對於Nifty 500的PB，其中位數溢價為18.8%。
09:05
The pharma sector PB has a median premium of 18.8% over the Nifty 500 PB.
製藥板塊的PB相對於Nifty 500的PB，其中位數溢價為18.8%。
09:10
The current premium of 36.6% is much higher than the median.
目前36.6%的溢價遠高於中位數。
09:14
This suggests that valuation wise the pharma sector is quite expensive.
這表明從估值角度來看，製藥板塊相當昂貴。
09:20
And what about the IT sector which has been in the news for quite some time due to
那麼，因業務表現低迷而頻頻登上新聞的IT板塊情況如何呢？
09:22
its subdued business performance.
業務表現。
09:26
The IT sector has always stayed at a steep premium to the nifty 500 in terms of the
IT板塊在PB比率方面，始終保持著相對於Nifty 500的大幅溢價。
09:29
PB ratio. Now that isn't surprising as IT is an asset light sector and hence IT companies typically have high PB ratio.
這並不令人驚訝，因為IT是一個輕資產行業，因此IT公司通常具有高PB比率。
09:37
But what we are interested is not the absolute PB but the relative movement of PB of the IT sector versus the PB of the
但我們感興趣的不是絕對PB，而是IT板塊的PB相對於Nifty 500的PB的相對變動。
09:45
Nifty 500.
Nifty 500。
09:46
The premium of the valuations of the IT sector touched a high of 178.7% in December 2021.
IT板塊的估值溢價在2021年12月觸及178.7%的高點。
09:56
It touched a low 59.2% in June 2024.
它在2024年6月觸及59.2%的低點。
09:58
Now, as against the median premium of 104.3, the current premium stands at
現在，相對於104.3的中位數溢價，目前的溢價為137. 93.2。這使得IT板塊成為一個潛在的便宜貨。
10:03
93.2. That makes the IT sector a potential bargain.
板塊和股票的估值更多是未來預期的函數，而不是過去的140. 倍數。
10:08
But before you draw any simplistic conclusions, here's something important.
但在您得出任何過於簡化的結論之前，這裡有一件重要的事情。
10:12
Sector and stock valuations are more of a function of future expectations rather than the past
板塊和股票的估值更多是未來預期的函數，而不是過去的140. 倍數。
10:18
So it's important to club the return and valuation pictures of sectors with the assessment of business prospect
因此，將行業的回報與估值狀況，與其業務前景評估結合分析至關重要。
10:23
to take a call on whether the momentum can sustain or the value can be unlocked.
以便判斷其動能是否能夠持續，或者其價值是否能夠被釋放。
10:29
Okay. Now let's talk about the next strategy playing the long-term cycle in sunrise sectors.
好的。現在讓我們談談下一個策略：在朝陽產業中佈局長期週期。
10:35
Certain sectors or industries or themes enjoy long-term tailwinds and can be thought
某些行業、產業或主題享有長期的順風優勢，可被視為處於長期的上升週期。
10:39
as being in a long-term upcycle.
這些包括利基產業，如半導體、EMS（電子製造服務）、電動車、綠色能源等。
10:42
These include niche industries like semiconductors, EMS or electronic
以及像中國加一、印度製造、金融化、城市化等主題。
10:45
manufacturing services, EVs, green energies, etc.
現在，挑選屬於這些產業和主題的公司，中長期來看可能證明是具有回報的。
10:49
And themes like China plus one, make in India, financialization urbanization etc.
同樣地，一些主流行業在未來數年也能提供長期的增長。
10:55
Now, picking companies belonging to these industries and themes can prove to be rewarding in the medium to long term.
例如，預計電信業的上升週期將持續數年，因為在可預見的未來，ARPU（每用戶平均收入）有充足的提升空間。
11:01
Similarly, some mainstream sectors can also provide secular growth for years to come.
考慮到消費 discretionary（非必需消費品）板塊在消費領域中的占比不斷上升，該板塊的上升週期預計也將持續數年。
11:06
For instance, the telecom upcycle is expected to last for several years given the ample room to increase ARPOS
此外，較低的病床密度和不斷上升的老齡化人口也預示著醫療保健行業的利好。
11:12
or average revenue per user for the foreseeable future.
這裡的問題是，板塊輪動的概念如何適用於處於長期週期的行業。
11:16
Given the rising share of consumer discretionary sector within consumption space, the consumer
在處於長期上升週期的行業或主題內部，您可以適時輪動那些表現有望強勁的細分領域或產業。
11:21
discretionary upcycle is also expected to continue for years to come.
屏幕上顯示了一些廣義行業內某些細分領域的例子。
11:27
Also, low bed densities and a rising elderly population bell for the healthcare
就像長期週期一樣，投資者也可以利用行業持續表現出的短期至中期週期。
11:30
sector. Now the question here is how the idea of rotation applies to sectors that are in the long-term cycle.
長期週期也是如此。投資者也可以利用行業持續表現出的短期至中期週期。現在的問題是，輪動的概念如何應用於處於長期週期的產業。
11:37
Now within sectors or themes that are in long-term upcycle, you can rotate segments or
現在，在處於長期上升週期的產業或主題內，您可以不時輪動那些
11:41
industries from time to time that are poised to do well.
蓄勢待發的細分市場或產業。
11:45
Examples of some segments within some broad sectors are in a screen.
螢幕上顯示了一些廣泛產業中某些細分市場的範例。
11:49
Now like long-term cycles, one can also place short to medium-term cycles that sectors keep exhibiting from
就像長期週期一樣，投資者也可以利用行業持續表現出的短期至中期週期，這些週期會不時因政策相關的發展而有所變化。
11:55
time to time based on policy related developments.
不時因政策相關的發展而有所變化。
11:58
For instance, localization in defense kickstarted the cycle in defense.
例如，國防本地化就曾帶動國防類股的循環。
12:02
The recent IndiaPakistan conflict has brought defense stocks into focus again.
近期的印巴衝突讓國防股再次成為焦點。
12:07
Seasonality in business performance can also be an opportunity for a sector rotation.
業績的季節性也能為產業輪動帶來機會。
12:12
For instance, AC manufacturers tend to report better performance during the summer seasons.
例如，空調製造商往往在夏季期間交出更好的業績。
12:16
This is seen in the sales numbers of voltas which typically tend to be higher in March and June quarters as compared
這點可見於 Voltas 的銷售數據，其在 3 月與 6 月當季的表現通常高於
12:23
to the September and December quarters.
9 月與 12 月當季。
12:25
So our strategy could be to invest in them during the offse and sell out during the peak season.
因此，我們的策略可以是在淡季買進、旺季賣出。
12:32
Similarly, other sectors like hospitality, chemicals and fertilizers jewelry power cement
同樣地，其他如觀光、化工與肥料、珠寶、電力、水泥等產業，
12:37
etc. also show seasonality in demand which makes them good candidates for sector
在需求上也呈現季節性，使其成為產業輪動的
12:42
[Music] rotation.
[音樂] 適切標的。
12:48
Okay, let's summarize what we've discussed in this video.
好，讓我們總結本集討論的重點。
12:53
Sector rotation is a sophisticated method to pick stocks that lies at the
產業輪動是一種精緻的選股方法，位於
12:55
intersection of fundamental and tactical styles of investing.
基本面與戰術型投資風格的交會點。
13:00
One other simple way of seeing it is to switch sectors between cyclicals and defensives.
另一個簡單的理解方式，是在景氣循環股與防禦型股之間切換產業。
13:04
Cyclicals are those sectors whose growth depends on economic growth and defensives are those sectors whose
景氣循環股是指其成長取決於經濟成長的產業；防禦型股則是指其
13:10
growth is independent of economic growth to a large extent.
成長在很大程度上獨立於經濟成長的產業。
13:14
So when the economy is firing on all cylinders, you can bet on cyclicals and when the economy seems
因此，當經濟強勁擴張時，你可以押注景氣循環股；當經濟似乎
13:19
to be losing momentum, you switch to defensive.
失去動能時，則切換至防禦型股。
13:21
Of course, this switch is not an all or nothing game.
當然，這種切換並非全有或全無的遊戲。
13:25
Rather, you should see it as a continuum across which you are making strategic shifts.
相反，您應該將其視為一個連續體，並在其中進行戰略性轉移。
13:29
Quite naturally, doing so will require ample commitment and interest.
很自然地，這樣做需要大量的承諾和興趣。
13:35
So you should indulge into sector rotation only if you have time and can make the
因此，只有當您有時間且能夠付出
13:38
required efforts.
所需的努力時，才應該涉足板塊輪動。
13:39
The rewards would be in terms of potentially higher success rate and hopefully better returns than
獎勵在於潛在更高的成功率，以及有望獲得比
13:44
the buy and hold style of investing.
買入並持有投資風格更好的回報。
13:48
But remember that selecting stocks is just the first step.
但請記住，選股只是第一步。
13:50
It's also important to show proper due diligence in picking stocks.
在選股時進行適當的盡職調查也很重要。
13:53
That means picking fundamentally good stocks and know those with shaky financials.
這意味著挑選基本面良好的股票，並了解哪些股票的財務狀況不穩。
13:59
Also, don't ignore company specific factors when you pick stocks.
此外，在選股時不要忽略公司特定因素。
14:04
A company that's going through its own problems may not help you play a cycle.
一家正在經歷自身問題的公司，可能無法幫助您把握週期。
14:07
You can also opt for index funds or ETFs to take sectoral bets.
您也可以選擇指數基金或 ETF 來押注特定板塊。
14:11
This method is simpler than picking stocks and also comparatively less risky.
這種方法比選股更簡單，風險也相對較低。
14:16
Last but not the least, if you are a mutual fund investor, you can do without taking
最後但同樣重要的是，如果您是共同基金投資者，您完全
14:19
calls altogether.
可以不必自己做決策。
14:21
Remember, it's your fund manager's job to pick winning sectors and rotate them and you're
記住，挑選獲勝板塊並進行輪動是基金經理的工作，而您
14:25
already paying them for that.
已經為此支付了費用。
14:28
And with this, we have come to the end of this video.
隨著這個話題的結束，我們的影片也來到了尾聲。
14:29
I hope you found it useful and if you did, please share it with your friends and family.
我希望您覺得這部影片有用，如果是的話，請將它分享給您的朋友和家人。
14:36
I'll be back soon with another video.
我很快就會帶著下一部影片回來。
14:37
Till then take care.
在此之前，請多保重。
14:41
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks.
證券市場投資存在市場風險。
14:46
Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
投資前請仔細閱讀所有相關文件。
