WE ARE WATCHING -- VOLATILITY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME RIGHT
NOW.
我們正在關注——波動性是當下的主題。
02:50
WE SAW MASSIVE SWINGS YESTERDAY.
我們昨天看到了巨大的波動。
02:52
FUTURES A PUNCHING HIGHER BY ABOUT 1%, BUT IT COULD BE A
BUMPY SESSION TODAY.
期貨上漲約 1%，但今天的交易可能會很震盪。
03:00
YOU ARE STILL SEEING SOME GREEN
WHEN IT COMES TO CGB'S, AND SOME OF THE PROXIES LIKE THE
AUSSIE DOLLAR FLAT.
你仍然看到中國國債（CGB）有些上漲，而像澳元這樣的相關資產持平。
03:07
YET, COMMODITIES ARE DOING
DECENTLY WELL.
儘管如此，大宗商品表現還不錯。
03:10
DAVID: YOU HAVE TO WONDER WHETHER WE
ARE OVERESTIMATING THE SHORT-TERM.
大衛：你不禁要問，我們是否高估了短期前景。
03:13
UNDERESTIMATING LONGER-TERM.
低估了長期前景。
03:18
VALUATIONS HAVE SNAPPED BACK
BUT WE ARE STILL BELOW WHERE YOU WOULD BE IF WE WERE IN A
MULTIPLE EXPANSION.
估值已經反彈，但我們仍低於若處於多重擴張時期應有的水準。
03:24
SOME OF THE COMMENTARY COMING
THROUGH IS THAT WE COULD BE TALKING, WE ARE STILL AT THE
CUSP OF A LONGER-TERM BULL MARKET MOVING FORWARD.
有評論指出，我們可能正處於長期牛市的起點，未來將持續向前發展。
03:33
AS FAR AS TODAY IS CONCERNED, NO HONG KONG TRADE, MAINLAND
4000, DO WE CLOSE ABOVE THAT?
就今天而言，沒有香港交易，內地 4000，我們能收在該水準之上嗎？
03:45
THE CGB MARKET -- WE WERE DOWN
ON YIELD YESTERDAY.
CGB（中國國債）市場——昨天殖利率下跌。
03:47
DOWN FURTHER IN THE OPENING
MINUTES.
開盤幾分鐘內進一步下跌。
03:51
THE PRICE ACTION IN THE CGB
MARKET DOES NOT SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MARKETS ARE LOOKING AT
SOME SORT OF REFLATIONARY MEASURE COMING THROUGH, BUT OF
COURSE, THAT COULD ALL CHANGE.
CGB 市場的價格走勢似乎並未顯示市場正在期待某種通膨再通膨措施的出台，當然，情況可能會有所改變。
04:01
MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.
稍後將有更多相關報導。
04:02
WE DO HAVE THE 30 YEAR ON AUCTION TODAY.
我們今天確實有 30 年期國債標售。
04:05
I DON'T THINK WE HAVE A 50 YEAR BOND OPTION.
我認為我們沒有 50 年期公債期權。
04:09
30 YEAR AT THE VERY LEAST.
至少是 30 年期。
04:11
WE ARE LOOKING AT THIS AHEAD OF
THE CRUCIAL BRIEFING TOMORROW.
我們正在為明天的關鍵簡報會做準備。
04:16
YVONNE: YES.
YVONNE：是的。
04:17
I WAS TALKING TO SOME GUESTS YESTERDAY AND THEY WERE SAYING,
YEAH, OUR WEEKENDS ARE RUINED.
我昨天和一些來賓交談，他們說，是的，我們的週末毀了。
04:26
THEY HAVE TO WATCH THIS.
他們得看這個。
04:27
DAVID:
THEY ARE ANYWAY.
DAVID：反正他們也得看。
04:29
YVONNE: WHY SATURDAY?
YVONNE：為什麼是星期六？
04:31
WE WERE ASKING ABOUT THE TIMING.
我們在問關於時間的問題。
04:34
WE SAW THE PBOC MEETING WAS
RIGHT BEFORE THE MARKETS OPEN.
我們看到中國人民銀行的會議正好在市場開盤之前。
04:38
THE FACT THEY ARE DOING IT ON A
WEEKEND -- IT IS A WORKING DAY IN CHINA, BUT MARKETS WILL BE
SHUT.
他們在週末舉行會議——在中國這是工作日，但市場將休市。
04:44
DOES IT GIVE US A FEW DAYS TO
REACT, SETTLE, MAYBE BECOME MORE RATIONAL WHEN IT COMES TO
THE REACTION?
這是否給了我們幾天時間來反應、沉澱，在反應方面變得更加理性？
04:50
SLEEP ON IT?
讓我們冷靜思考一下？
04:51
THAT IS WHAT WE ARE LOOKING
AHEAD TO.
這就是我們正在展望的前景。
04:57
THE 2 TRILLION REMEDY NUMBER IS
WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING.
2兆美元的補救數字將是我們關注的焦點。
05:02
$280 BILLION IN FRESH STIMULUS
FROM BEIJING.
北京將推出2,800億美元的新一輪刺激措施。
05:05
THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS
TO APPEASE INVESTORS.
這似乎是為了安撫投資者的共識。
05:09
THAT IS THE THEME FROM THE NEW
BLOOMBERG SURVEY.
這是彭博社最新調查得出的主題。
05:11
LET'S BRING IN OUR CHINA
CORRESPONDENT.
讓我們連線本台駐中國記者。
05:14
WHAT ALSO ANALYSTS LOOKING AT
BESIDES THIS NUMBER?
除了這個數字，分析師還在關注什麼？
05:18
>> WE POLLED 23 MARKET
PARTICIPANTS.
>> 我們訪問了23位市場參與者。
05:22
THE MAJORITY EXPECTING IT WILL
BE ¥2 TRILLION.
多數人預期將達到2兆人民幣。
05:24
BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS THINKS
THERE WILL BE NO FRESH STIMULUS AT ALL.
彭博經濟研究則認為根本不會有新的刺激措施。
05:26
PRETTY DIVERSION OF OPINIONS.
意見分歧相當大。
05:29
MORE IMPORTANT, THE NUMBER IS
THE CONTENT OF THE STIMULUS PACKAGE.
更重要的是，數字背後的刺激方案內容。
05:35
HOW MUCH OF IT WILL BE
DEDICATED TO STIMULATING CONSUMPTION VERSUS GOING BACK
TO THE OLD PLAYBOOK OF INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT AND
SUPPLY-SIDE INTERVENTION.
其中有多少將用於刺激消費，又有多少將回歸基礎設施投資和供給側干預的老路。
05:48
SO, INVESTORS ARE LOOKING OUT
FOR THESE MEASURES WHEN IT COMES TO CONSUMPTION.
因此，投資者正密切關注這些與消費相關的措施。
05:50
WHETHER THEY WERE BE CONSUMPTION VOUCHERS, WHETHER
THERE WILL BE SUBSIDIES FOR CERTAIN SECTORS OF THE
POPULATION LIKE THE ELDERLY AND
是否會發放消費券，是否會針對特定群體如老年人和
06:00
POOR, SOCIAL SAFETY NET FOR
FAMILIES AND CHILDREN.
貧困人口提供補貼，以及為家庭和兒童提供社會安全網。
06:03
AN EXTENSION OF THE EQUIPMENT
UPGRADING PROGRAM AS WELL AT A BIGGER SCALE.
還有以更大規模延續設備升級計劃。
06:06
ALSO, WHEN IT COMES TO PROPERTY, WHETHER THE
GOVERNMENT WILL RELAX THE CURBS ON THE USAGE OF THIS SPECIAL
LOCAL GOVERNMENT BONDS, TO USE
此外，在房地產方面，政府是否會放寬對這類特殊地方政府債券使用的限制，以利用
06:17
THOSE FUNDS TO BUY UP OLD SOLD
HOMES.
這些資金收購現有存量住房。
06:19
FISCAL SPENDING HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN, SHRUNK 3% IN THE
FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF THIS YEAR.
財政支出一直在放緩，今年前八個月萎縮了3%。
06:27
BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS THINKS THE
MOF BRIEFING WILL SAY THEY ARE JUST GOING TO DISPERSE ALL THE
UNUSED FUNDS SO FAR, WHICH IS ABOUT 18 TRILLION WHICH IS NOT
YET SPENT.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, THIS HAS
TO SHOW UP IN THE ECONOMIC NUMBERS.
歸根究底，這必須要在經濟數據上顯現出來。
06:44
I THINK THE WAGE INFLATION WHICH CAME THROUGH RECENTLY
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A TOUGH CHALLENGE AHEAD AS FAR AS
GETTING THE ECONOMY TURNED
我認為最近公布的薪資通膨表明，在扭轉經濟方面，前方存在著艱鉅的挑戰。
06:53
AROUND. ON THE WEEKEND, WE HAVE
INFLATION NUMBERS COMING THROUGH WHICH WILL PROBABLY
TELL US THE SAME THING.
週末我們將會看到通膨數據出爐，可能也會告訴我們同樣的情況。
07:00
MINMIN: YEAH, WAGES, AT LEAST HIRING
WAGES HAS DROPPED IN THE THIRD QUARTER BY 0.6%.
MINMIN：沒錯，根據線上招募平台的數據，至少招聘薪資在第三季下降了 0.6%。
07:04
FULL-YEAR YEAR YEAR TO DATE, IT HAS BEEN DECREASING ACCORDING
TO THE ONLINE RECRUITMENT PLATFORM.
今年迄今為止的全年數據也一直在下降。
07:10
WE CAN BRING UP THE QUARTERLY NUMBERS.
我們可以調出季度數據。
07:13
THIS IS THE INFLATION DATA.
這是通膨數據。
07:18
SEPTEMBER DATA, CONSUMER PRICE
INDEX EXPECTED TO BE AT 0.6%.
九月份的數據，消費者物價指數預期為 0.6%。
07:25
THIS WOULD MEAN IT IS THE 19TH
STRAIGHT MONTH OF INFLATION FALLING BELOW 1%.
這意味著這將是通膨連續第 19 個月低於 1%。
07:27
WHEN IT COMES TO PRODUCERS PRICE INDEX, THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DECLINE FURTHER FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH.
至於生產者物價指數，預期將連續第二個月下降。
07:34
IT IS ALREADY IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR CLOSE TO TWO
YEARS NOW, PARTLY BECAUSE OF FALLING COMMODITY PRICES BEFORE
CHINA ANNOUNCED THE BIG
它已經處於負值區間近兩年，部分原因是中國宣布大規模刺激措施之前大宗商品價格下跌。
07:41
STIMULUS. YOU HAVE BOTH WAGES AND PRICES FALLING.
薪資和物價都在下降。
07:44
SO, THIS DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL THAT COMES AGAINST THE BACKDROP
OF THE OTHER UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS, 5.2% OVERALL.
因此，在整體失業率為 5.2% 的背景下，出現了這種通貨緊縮螺旋。
07:53
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT AT A RECORD HIGH IN AUGUST, ABOVE 18%.
八月份青年失業率創下歷史新高，超過 18%。
07:58
OVERALL, VERY WEAK NUMBERS.
整體而言，數據非常疲弱。
08:02
THIS FISCAL STIMULUS IS REALLY
URGENT RIGHT NOW.
目前這項財政刺激措施真的非常急迫。
08:05
YVONNE: THANK YOU, MINMIN LOW, ON WHAT
TO EXPECT THIS WEEKEND.
YVONNE：謝謝你，MINMIN LOW，為我們說明本週末的預期。
08:11
TURN TO BLOOMBERG FOR MORE ON
THE BRIEFING TOMORROW IN BEIJING.
接下來請關注 Bloomberg，取得更多關於明天北京簡報的資訊。
08:14
THAT WILL BE OPENING UP ON YOUR TERMINAL TLIV <GO>.
這將在您的終端機 TLIV <GO> 上開啟。
08:19
DAVID:
FROM ONE INFLATION PRINT WHERE THE CONVERSATION WAS WE NEED A
LITTLE BIT MORE TO MAY BE WHERE THE MARKETS WERE HOPEFULLY
LOOKING, HOPING TO FIND
DAVID:
08:31
SOMETHING A LITTLE LESS.
一些稍微不那麼熱的數據。
08:33
INFLATION IN THE U.S.
美國通膨
08:35
COMING IN FOR SEPTEMBER ABOVE
EXPECTATIONS, HOTTER THAN EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU
LOOK AT CORE MONTH ON MONTH WHICH CAME IN AT .3%.
九月份數據出爐，高於預期，比預期更熱，
08:44
AS YOU WOULD EXPECT, CONVERSATIONS AROUND IS THE FED
GOING TO BE ABLE TO CUT INTEREST RATES IN NOVEMBER?
如你所預期，大家討論的是聯準會
08:50
LET'S CALL IT OVER THE NEXT TWO MEETINGS.
讓我們稱之為在接下來的兩次會議中。
08:54
FOR NOVEMBER 7.
也就是十一月七日那次。
08:58
CURRENTLY, LESS THAN 80%
PROBABILITY THE FED WILL BE ABLE TO CUT INTEREST RATES.
目前，聯準會降息的機率不到 80%。
09:02
BASED ON THE COMMENTARY, IT SUGGESTS THAT THEY ARE SO
COMFORTABLE WITH A LONG-TERM TRENDS, ALTHOUGH IF THE DATA
SUGGESTS -- I THINK MR.
根據評論，這暗示他們對長期趨勢感到相當放心，
09:14
BOSTIC WAS HAPPY TO SKIP CERTAIN
MEETINGS IF THAT IS WHAT THE DATA IS TELLING THEM TO DO.
也樂意跳過某些會議，如果數據是這樣告訴他們的話。
09:19
YVONNE: NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT CUTS
ANYMORE, TALKING ABOUT PAUSES.
YVONNE: 甚至不再討論降息，
09:22
THE NARRATIVE HAS SHIFTED.
論調已經轉變。
09:24
LET'S BRING IN GARFIELD REYNOLDS WHO LEADS OUR COVERAGE
IN ASIA.
讓我們請來負責我們亞洲地區報導的 GARFIELD REYNOLDS。
09:31
IT SEEMS LIKE BOND MARKETS ARE
STARTING TO PRICE IN THIS NO LANDING SCENARIO.
似乎債券市場開始將這個「不著陸」的情境納入定價。
09:33
DO YOU THINK THAT IS FAIR AT THIS POINT?
您認為目前這樣看合理嗎？
09:36
GARFIELD:
I THINK THAT IS PRETTY FAIR.
GARFIELD:
09:42
WHEN YOU LOOK AT A RANGE OF
DATA, REALLY, THE JOBS CLAIMS OVERNIGHT WERE A BIT CONCERNING.
當你觀察一系列數據時，昨晚的請領失業給付數據確實有點令人擔憂。
09:47
I THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE FED FOCUSED ON ACTUALLY CUTTING IN
NOVEMBER RATHER THAN PAUSING, BUT THE INFLATION NUMBERS HAVE
REALLY PUT -- WHEN THE FED CUT
我認為這將讓聯準會持續關注在十一月降息，而不是暫停，
10:04
BY 50 BASIS POINTS LAST MONTH,
A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE SAYING THEY EXPECT THE FED TO CUT AT
LEAST ONCE MORE BY THAT AMOUNT THIS YEAR.
降息 2 碼（50 個基點）時，
10:08
MAYBE 50 IN DECEMBER AFTER 25 IN NOVEMBER OR THE OTHER WAY
AROUND.
十一月降息25個基點後，十二月可能再降50個基點，或者順序相反。
10:14
THE INFLATION DATA IS THE
LATEST THING TO KILL THAT OFF, ALONG WITH WE HAVE THE VERY
STRONG JOBS DATA REPORT.
通膨數據是最新扼殺降息預期的因素，加上我們還有非常強勁的就業數據報告。
10:24
THE DATA IS NOT THERE FOR A
RAPID PACE OF RATE CUTS.
目前的數據並未顯示有必要快速降息。
10:29
EVEN AFTER WE HAD A NUMBER OF
FED OFFICIALS OVERNIGHT SAYING, LIKELY ONE MONTH OF SLIGHTLY
HOT CPI THAT WE'VE GOT OVERNIGHT.
即使多位聯準會官員昨夜表示，我們剛剛公布的CPI數據可能只是略微偏熱的一個月。
10:39
WE ALSO HAVE THE ATLANTA FED GDP FORECAST NOW IS AT 3.2%
FOR THE CURRENT QUARTER.
我們還有亞特蘭大聯準會的GDP預測，目前顯示本季度增長率為3.2%。
10:53
THAT IS WAY, WAY ABOVE THE SORT
OF PACE THAT WOULD SIGNAL THE U.S.
這遠遠高於那種顯示美國經濟急需大量援助的增長水準。
10:54
ECONOMY IS REALLY NEEDING A LOT OF ASSISTANCE.
經濟並不需要大量援助。
11:00
NOW, RATES ARE RESTRICTIVE.
目前，利率仍具限制性。
11:05
POWELL AND CO.
鮑爾及其團隊
11:05
HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THEY WANT TO MAKE THEM LESS RESTRICTIVE
BECAUSE THEY THINK THE LABOR MARKET IS ALREADY COOLING
SIGNIFICANT.
已明確表示他們希望降低限制性，因為他們認為勞動市場已經顯著降溫。
11:14
WE ARE CONCERNED WITH A
LONG-TERM IMPACT MIGHT BE.
我們擔心長期影響可能會出現。
11:18
THERE IS DEFINITELY AN EASING
CYCLE, BUT THE TAIL RISK OF SUSTAINED INFLATION HAS COME
BACK INTO PEOPLE'S MINDS, EVEN
降息週期肯定會出現，但通膨持續的尾部風險已重回人們的腦海，
11:30
IF IT IS STILL A FAIR WAY OUT
TOWARDS LEFT AREA.
儘管這仍是很遙遠的可能性。
11:33
THE IDEA THAT WE ARE HEADING
TOWARDS A RECESSION, WHICH WAS DEFINITELY PART OF WHAT SOME OF
THE BOND MARKET WERE CONSIDERING WHEN YOU LOOK AT
THE PACE OF CUTS BEING PRICED
關於我們正走向衰退的看法——這曾是債券市場考慮的部分因素，當你觀察市場定價的降息速度，
11:43
IN, WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT WAS
GOING ON WITH WHERE YIELDS WERE, THAT HAS FALLEN OFF THE
TABLE.
以及殖利率的走勢時——這種看法已經消失了。
11:49
THE RISKS, ESPECIALLY HEADING
INTO AN ELECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO EMPHASIZE LOTS OF SPENDING
IN THE COMING YEARS, A LACK OF
風險，尤其是即將面臨一場可能強調未來幾年大量支出的選舉，缺乏
12:00
POLITICAL WILL TO REIN IN LARGE
DEFICITS, ALL OF THAT SAYS THE BOND MARKET IS PROBABLY STILL
LOOKING A LITTLE TOO SANGUINE ABOUT THE RISK FOR INFLATION
GOING FORWARD, AND CERTAINLY
政治意願來控制龐大赤字，這一切意味著債券市場可能仍對未來的通膨風險過於樂觀，而且無疑
12:11
TOO MUCH FOCUS ON THE IDEA THE
FED IS GOING TO BE CUTTING RATES RAPIDLY.
過於關注聯準會將快速降息的想法。
12:13
DAVID:
GARFIELD, THANK YOU SO MUCH.
大衛：
12:18
OVER IN SYDNEY FOR US.
Garfield，非常感謝你。
12:20
REALLY KEEPING IT REAL ON WHERE WE ARE AS FAR AS PRICING GOES
AMIDST OF THIS CONSTANT DANCE BETWEEN 25, 50 OR MAYBE NOT AT
ALL, AT LEAST FOR SPECIFIC
MEETINGS. AHEAD, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE OPEN IN CHINA AND WE TALK WITH
VIVIAN LIN THURSTON.
展望前方，我們關注中國市場開盤，並與林恬（Vivian Lin Thurston）進行對話。
12:39
THEY HAVE BEEN ADDING EXPOSURE
TO CHINESE EQUITIES.
他們一直在增加對中國股票的曝險部位。
12:41
HOW ARE THEY POSITION GOING
INTO THIS MASSIVE WEEKEND?
在這個巨大的週末之前，他們的佈局策略為何？
12:47
THIS TIME TOMORROW, HOPEFULLY
AT LEAST 2 TRILLION IN FRESH FISCAL STIMULUS.
明天這個時候，希望能看到至少2兆美元的新財政刺激方案。
12:52
COUNTING DOWN THE OPEN OF TRADE.
倒數開盤交易。
12:56
MARKETS IN HONG KONG ARE SHUT.
香港市場休市。
13:01
112 POINTS.
112點。
13:03
THIS IS THE CHINA SHOW.
這是《中國行情》（The China Show）。
13:50
YVONNE:
FUTURES ARE PARING BACK SOME OF THE GAINS BUT STILL SEEING SOME
DECENT UPSIDE.
伊凡（Yvonne）：
13:56
POTENTIALLY COULD BE A GOOD
FRIDAY AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEK.
如果順利的話，本週最後一個交易日（週五）表現會不錯。
14:02
IF WE STILL TALK ABOUT A PRETTY
VOLATILE SESSION, WE ARE NOT REALLY GOING TO SEE ANY SORT OF
DIRECTION, GIVEN WE ARE WAITING FOR CLUES ON WHAT HAPPENS ON
SATURDAY DURING THIS MOF
CHINA. WE STILL RESERVE SOME DRY
POWDER TO SEE HOW THE POLICY EVOLVES, AND TRY TO FOCUS ON
OPPORTUNITIES.
我們仍保留一些預備資金，以觀察政策的演變，並嘗試專注於尋找機會。
15:15
TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE
PERFORMANCE FOR THIS ASSET CLASS.
繼續為此資產類別創造績效。
15:18
YVONNE: OK.
Yvonne: 好的。
15:22
WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD IN
THIS PRESS BRIEFING FROM THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE TOMORROW?
您期待明天財政部的這場記者會有什麼內容？
15:25
IS IT MORE ABOUT THE SIZE, IS IT REALLY ABOUT 2 TRILLION?
是否更多是關於規模，真的會是2兆元嗎？
15:30
WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO APPEASE THE MARKET, OR ARE YOU LOOKING
UP WITH A FOCUS OF THE STIMULUS WILL BE?
這足以安撫市場嗎？還是您更關注刺激措施的重點方向？
15:38
VIVIAN: I THINK BOTH.
Vivian: 我認為兩者都有。
15:40
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE STIMULUS
DOES MATTER, BECAUSE THE MARKET EXPECTATION HAS RUN HIGH.
刺激措施的規模確實重要，因為市場預期已經很高。
15:45
I THINK WHETHER IT IS TRUE TRILLION OR ABOVE 2 TRILLION,
THERE IS SOME EXPECTATION THERE.
我認為不論是低於2兆元還是超過2兆元，市場都抱持著某種預期。
15:52
MORE IMPORTANTLY, I THINK WE
ARE LOOKING AT HOW THEY ARE GOING TO IMPLEMENT THE FISCAL
STIMULUS.
更重要的是，我認為我們關注的是他們將如何實施財政刺激措施。
15:59
THAT HAS BEEN A KEY GIVEN THAT
THERE'S A LOT OF UNUSED FISCAL POLICY BEFORE.
這一直是關鍵，因為之前有許多財政政策並未被使用。
16:04
I THINK THAT COULD BECOME A KEY.
我認為這可能成為關鍵。
16:09
FISCAL STIMULUS IS VERY
DIFFERENT THAN MONETARY STIMULUS TO SOME EXTENT.
在某種程度上，財政刺激與貨幣刺激非常不同。
16:12
MONETARY STIMULUS, YOU COULD SEE SOMETHING THAT GOES INTO
THE SYSTEM BUT FISCAL STIMULUS, YOU NEED THE REAL ACTIONS TO
TAKE PLACE.
貨幣刺激，您可以看到資金進入體系；但財政刺激，則需要實際的行動發生。
16:23
AND TO EVENTUALLY TRICKLE DOWN
TO EMPLOYMENT, INCOME, AND ALSO CONSUMER CONFIDENCE.
並最終傳導至就業、收入以及消費者信心。
16:29
DAVID:
VIVIAN, I GUESS TO NOT REALLY SO MUCH TEMPER EXPECTATIONS,
BUT MANAGE HOW MARKETS SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TOMORROW OR MAYBE
EVEN FUTURE BRIEFINGS OUT OF
OFFICIALS -- WHAT DO YOU THINK
THE CURRENT SCALE OF STIMULUS AND MEASURES THAT THEY PUT OUT,
WHAT IS IT NOT DESIGNED TO ACHIEVE?
您認為他們目前推出的刺激措施和手段，其規模並非為了達到什麼目的？
16:48
WHERE ARE EXPECTATIONS TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT?
目前哪些領域的預期過高？
16:52
VIVIAN:
YEAH, I THINK IT IS A GUESSING GAME RIGHT NOW.
薇薇安：
16:56
IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO REALLY PROJECT OR ESTIMATE THE
MAGNITUDE.
要真正預測或估計其規模非常困難。
17:03
I THINK THE KEY IS IT DEPENDS
ON WHAT THE GOVERNMENT TRIES TO ACCOMPLISH.
我認為關鍵在於這取決於政府想要達成什麼目標。
17:09
IF THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT JUST TRIES TO GET TO GDP GROWTH
TARGETS, AND I THINK THEY MAY NOT HAVE TO COME UP WITH 2
TRILLION STIMULUS.
如果中國政府只是為了達到GDP增長目標，我認為他們可能不需要推出2兆元的刺激方案。
17:19
THERE ARE OTHER WAYS, WHETHER
SOME SHORT-TERM LEVERS THEY CAN PULL.
還有其他方法，無論是他們可以動用的哪些短期槓桿。
17:22
BUT IF THEY REALLY WANT TO
SOLVE THE PROBLEM FOR THE PROLONGED CYCLICAL DOWNTURN, IT
IS A CONFIDENCE LED DOWNTURN, THEY NEED TO ADDRESS THE
PROPERTY MARKET DECLINE, THE
但如果他們真的想解決長期週期性衰退的問題，這是一場由信心主導的衰退，他們就需要解決房地產市場下滑、
17:36
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, THE ANEMIC
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, EMPLOYMENT ISSUES.
消費者信心、疲弱的國內消費、就業問題。
17:39
THAT, I THINK IS MORE IMPORTANT AND THAT TENDS TO LEAD TO MORE
SUSTAINABLE, FUNDAMENTAL OUTCOME.
我認為這更重要，而且往往能帶來更可持續的根本性結果。
17:47
I THINK THAT SUPPORTS A BETTER INVESTMENT CASE THAN CHINESE
EQUITIES.
我認為這比中國股票更能支持一個更好的投資案例。
17:53
YVONNE: IN TERMS OF WHAT HAS
OUTPERFORMED SO FAR, SINCE WE'VE HEARD THIS COORDINATED
RESPONSE FROM THE PBOC
伊馮：就目前表現優於預期的領域而言，自從我們聽到中國人民銀行的
18:00
POLICYMAKERS, REGULATORS ALIKE,
IT HAS BEEN THE TECH SPACE.
政策制定者及監管機構的協調反應後，
18:05
I THINK CHIPMAKERS, FOR
EXAMPLE, PEOPLE BETTING THAT FISCAL STIMULUS WILL HELP THAT
SECTOR THE MOST.
我認為以晶片製造商為例，人們押注財政刺激將對該產業幫助最大。
18:10
CONSUMPTION, WHETHER IT IS DISCRETIONARY,
STAPLES ALIKE.
消費類股，無論是可選消費還是
18:14
PROPERTY EVEN.
甚至還有房地產。
18:15
I'M WONDERING WHAT PARTS OF
THIS MARKET IS STILL -- HAS ROOM TO CHASE AND HAS ROOM TO
RUN A BIT FARTHER, I SHOULD SAY, AND WHAT LOOKS OVERVALUED
TO YOU?
VIVIAN: THIS IS A TYPICAL RECOVERY
PHASE, MEANING THAT EVERYTHING RALLIED.
薇薇安：這是典型的復甦階段，意味著所有東西都在反彈。
18:33
LOW-QUALITY COMPANIES TEND TO RALLY EVEN MORE BECAUSE THOSE
ARE THE ONES THAT GET SOLD OFF MORE IN THE PAST.
低品質的公司往往反彈得更多，因為這些是過去被拋售得最多的。
18:43
DURING THIS
PHASE, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR GROWTH INVESTORS LIKE US TO
REALLY IDENTIFY A STRONG ALTERNATE IDEA.
在這個階段，像我們這樣的成長型投資者很難真正找到一個強而有力的替代想法。
18:52
IF WE LOOK PAST THIS SPACE, I DO THINK WE CONTINUE TO LIKE
THE COMPANIES WITH THE STRONGER CORPORATE FUNDAMENTALS.
如果我們把目光放遠，我們確實持續看好那些企業基本面較強勁的公司。
19:02
INTERNET COMPANIES, TRAVEL COMPANIES, SOME TECH COMPANIES,
EVEN APPLIANCE AND SOME DOMESTIC FOCUSED INDUSTRIALS
COMPANIES.
互聯網公司、旅遊公司、一些科技公司，甚至是家電以及一些以國內為主的工業公司。
19:11
THOSE COMPANIES EVENTUALLY WILL
BE THE LEADING COMPANIES IN TERMS OF THE EARNINGS
IMPROVEMENT.
這些公司最終將成為盈餘改善方面的領先公司。
19:16
THEY WILL NOT ONLY BENEFIT FROM
WHATEVER THE GOVERNMENT COMES OUT WITH IN TERMS OF STIMULUS,
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN MARKET SHARE WITH RESPECTIVE
INDUSTRIES.
它們不僅能受惠於政府推出的任何刺激措施，還將在各自的產業中持續獲得市佔率。
19:24
THAT IS WHAT WE'VE BEEN FOCUSED
ON.
這正是我們一直關注的重點。
19:27
AT THIS PHASE, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE
MARKET RALLIED SO HARD, SO MUCH IN SUCH A SHORT TIME PERIOD.
在這個階段非常困難，尤其是在市場如此短時間內強勁大漲的情況下。
19:34
IT IS VERY IRRATIONAL, TO SOME EXTENT.
在某種程度上，這非常不理性。
19:36
DAVID:
IMAGINE IF YOU TOOK A THREE WEEK HOLIDAY AND YOU CAME BACK
AND SUDDENLY THE WORLD IS WHAT IT IS.
DAVID：想像一下，如果你休了三週的假回來，突然發現世界變成這樣。
19:43
YOU MENTIONED YOUR EM STRATEGY.
您提到了您的新興市場策略。
19:49
THE OTHER PART OF THE QUESTION
IS, WHAT CHANGES ARE YOU PREPARED TO MAKE TO YOUR EM
STRATEGY IF IN CASE YOU NEED TO INCREASE YOUR EXPOSURE TO CHINA
EVEN FURTHER?
問題的另一部分是，如果您需要進一步增加對中國的曝險，您準備對您的新興市場策略做哪些改變？
19:58
HOW ARE YOU PREPARED TO FUND
THAT?
您準備如何為此提供資金？
20:00
WHAT TAKES A BACKSEAT?
哪些部分會被優先考慮？
20:01
VIVIAN: YES.
VIVIAN：是的。
20:03
SO, FOR OUR GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS INVESTORS LIKE US, IN
ORDER TO FUND CHINA, WE HAVE TO TAKE OUT OF OTHER COUNTRIES.
因此，對於像我們這樣的全球新興市場投資者來說，為了投資中國，我們必須從其他國家撤資。
20:12
WE TEND TO TAKE TRAFFIC FROM OUTPERFORMED COUNTRIES.
我們傾向於從表現優異的國家撤資。
20:18
INDIA IS ONE OF THEM.
印度就是其中之一。
20:21
WE CONTINUE TO LIKE INDIA
FUNDAMENTAL STORIES.
我們持續看好印度的基本面故事。
20:25
IT HAS EXTENDED AN OPPOSITION
IN INDIA HAS BEEN AS-- AND OUR POSITION IN INDIA HAS EXPANDED.
印度的反對勢力已經延長——而我們在印度的部位已經擴大。
20:33
THE TECH SPACE HAS RUN VERY HARD.
科技領域已經大漲了很多。
20:35
THE LEADERS, WE LIKE THEM FOR THE LONGER-TERM.
對於領先者，我們從長期角度看好它們。
20:40
THEN, SOME FROM LATIN AMERICA, FOR EXAMPLE.
接著，例如一些來自拉丁美洲的國家。
20:45
YOU'RE RIGHT.
你說得對。
20:48
IT IS NOT A SIMPLE,
STRAIGHTFORWARD KIND OF MOVE, BUT DEFINITELY, WE NEED TO BE
COGNIZANT ABOUT MANAGING THE RISK RELATED TO CHINA.
這不是一個簡單、直接的舉措，但我們絕對需要留意管理與中國相關的風險。
20:56
YVONNE:
VIVIAN, I HOPE YOU HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.
伊芙琳：薇薇安，祝你有個愉快的週末。
21:00
VIVIAN LIN THURSTON FROM WILLIAM BLAIR JOINING US THIS
EVENING.
威廉布萊爾的薇薇安·林·瑟斯頓今晚加入我們的節目。
21:08
AS HONG KONG MARKETS ARE SHUT,
WE ARE COUNTING DOWN TO THE OPEN IN SHENZHEN.
隨著香港市場休市，我們正在倒數深圳開盤。
21:11
SHANGHAI, IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE PETERING OUT IN TERMS OF
THE MOMENTUM IN FUTURES, BUT 2.13 FOR THE CHINESE 10 YEAR
YIELD.
上海方面，期貨的動能看似逐漸減弱，但中國十年期國債殖利率為 2.13。
21:21
WE HAVE PLENTY MORE AHEAD.
後續還有更多精彩內容。
21:28
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博社。
21:40
DAVID:
GOING INTO THE FINAL SESSION OF THE WEEK ON THE CHINESE
MAINLAND.
大衛：進入本週中國大陸市場的最後交易時段。
21:45
A PUBLIC SERVICE REMINDER THAT
THINGS ARE SHUT IN HONG KONG SO WE ARE -- ALREADY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
提醒大家，香港市場已休市，所以我們——已經進入週末了。
21:54
WHAT WE ARE TRACKING IS DISCONTINUED RALLY AND REVERSER
LOWER IN YIELDS.
我們正在關注的是反彈中斷以及殖利率轉向下跌。
22:01
WE ARE DOWN A FOURTH DAY, WHICH
I GUESS POSITIONING ASIDE, DOES NOT TELL YOU MUCH ABOUT
EXPECTATIONS OVER TOMORROW.
這是連續第四天走低，撇開部位調整不談，這並不能說明市場對明天的預期。
22:06
YVONNE: NO, NOT REALLY.
伊芙琳：不，並不盡然。
22:07
IT IS ANYONE'S GUESS AT THIS POINT.
目前這完全是未知數。
22:10
HOW MANY MORE AGENCIES CAN COME THROUGH WITH PRESS BRIEFINGS
AFTER THE MOF?
在財政部之後，還有多少個部委能舉行記者會？
22:16
WHAT WOULD STILL MATTER?
還有什麼是仍然重要的？
22:17
DAVID:
THAT IS ALMOST LIKE COMING UP IN A SINGING CONTEST AFTER
WHITNEY HOUSTON.
這幾乎就像在惠特妮·休斯頓之後參加歌唱比賽一樣。
22:22
YVONNE: I THINK THE PREMIER HAS TO SHOW
UP OR SOMETHING.
伊芙琳：我認為總理必須現身之類的。
22:26
SOMEONE. ANYWAY, ANALYST ACTIONS.
總得有人出面。總之，來看看分析師的動作。
22:28
ANTA SPORTS CUT TO WITHHOLD AT JEFFERIES.
傑富瑞（Jefferies）將安踏體育評級下調至持有。
22:31
TALK ABOUT THE WORSE THAN EXPECTED THIRD-QUARTER RETAIL
SALES DATA.
來談談不如預期的第三季零售銷售數據。
22:37
THEY ARE SAYING THE STRUCTURAL
PROBLEMS ARE INTENSIFYING.
他們表示結構性問題正在加劇。
22:42
CHINA FEIHE ALSO CUT TO REDUCE
AT THE BANK AS WELL.
中國飛鶴也被瑞士銀行（UBS）下調至賣出評級。
22:46
A BIT OF A CONSUMPTION FLARE
FOR YOU THIS MORNING.
今早為您帶來一點消費熱潮。
22:48
DAVID: GOING TO THE OPEN TODAY,
TRADING AT 4000.
大衛：今天開盤將挑戰4000點。
22:52
WE HAVE A GREAT STORY ON THIS
ON THE TERMINAL OUT OF RENAISSANCE MACRO'S JEFF
DEGRAAF.
YOU ARE WATCHING "THE CHINA SHOW."
WE ARE COUNTING DOWN TO THE MARKETS.
您正在收看《中國秀》（The China Show）。我們正在倒數開盤。
23:32
THEY ARE TAKING A BREAK FROM THE VOLATILITY WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING THIS WEEK.
市場暫時脫離了本週以來的劇烈波動。
23:38
CERTAINLY, A LOT OF QUESTIONS
ON WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.
當然，對於後續發展仍有許多疑問。
23:41
WE ARE SITTING ON OUR HANDS
UNTIL WE WAIT FOR ANY ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE MINISTRY
OF FINANCE BRIEFING, HAPPENING ON A SATURDAY.
在財政部於週六舉行的簡報會有進一步消息前，我們暫且觀望。
23:47
FUTURES ARE BASICALLY ERASED.
期貨漲幅基本已回吐殆盡。
23:51
MOSTLY GAINS IN THE LAST 30
MINUTES.
過去30分鐘內主要呈上漲走勢。
23:52
YIELDS ARE TICKING LOWER.
收益率（Yields）正小幅下滑。
23:54
THE CB G MARKET, NOT TOO MUCH RISK TODAY.
投資級公司債（CB）市場今日風險可控。
23:57
DAVID: YEAH.
大衛：是的。
23:59
YOU'VE GOT TO THINK ABOUT THE RISKS RIGHT NOW.
現在必須要考量相關風險。
24:04
WHILE POLICYMAKERS CERTAINLY HAVE THE MARKETS IN MIND WHEN
THEY COME UP WITH POLICY, BUT MIGHT THE RISK MIGHT BE THE
TEMPER OF EXPECTATIONS.
政策制定者在制定政策時，固然會將市場納入考量，但風險可能在於調節預期。
24:15
MAYBE THAT'S WHY THEY ARE
HAVING IN ON A WEEKEND.
也許這就是為什麼他們要在週末開會。
24:19
MAYBE THEY WANT TO BE ABLE TO
INDUCE A MORE SUSTAINABLE RALLY.
也許他們希望藉此引導出更具持續性的反彈。
24:22
MAYBE THEY DON'T WANT
EVERYTHING TO GO INTO STOCK MARKET.
也許他們不希望所有資金都湧入股市。
24:25
I'M SPECULATING, BUT THAT IS BARELY THE SURFACE WHEN YOU
LOOK AT THE AMOUNT OF SPECULATION IN THE MARKETS.
這只是我的推測，但若看看市場上充斥的投機程度，這恐怕只是冰山一角。
24:31
WE ARE PULLING BACK A LITTLE BIT.
我們現在稍微回檔。
24:32
LOOKING LIKE A NORMAL DAY AS FAR AS PRICE ACTION GOES.
從價格走勢來看，這像是一個正常的交易日。
24:36
.8%. THERE IS A BROADLY ACROSS MOST
SECTOR GROUPS, WE ARE SEEING SOME DECLINES.
下跌 0.8%。在大多數類股中，我們都看到一些跌幅。
24:46
NOT SUBSTANTIAL.
幅度不大。
24:48
NOT SUBSTANTIAL EITHER WAY.
多空雙方的波動都不大。
24:51
BIG STOCKS AT THE BOTTOM OF YOUR SCREENS.
大型股就在您螢幕的底部。
24:55
JUST TO GIVE YOU A SENSE OF HOW
THESE LARGE.
為了讓您了解這些大型股的表現。
24:56
CAPS ARE TRADING AS I CONTINUE
TO TALK, WE ARE SEEING MORE DOWNSIDE COMING THROUGH IN
THESE MARKETS AS WE SPEAK.
就在我說話的同時，這些市值權重股的交易情況，我們看到市場正湧現更多賣壓。
25:04
WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT WHAT IS
A PROXY FOR EXPECTATIONS OF THESE MARKETS?
我們也在觀察什麼是這些市場預期的代理指標？
25:09
WE HAVE AN ECONOMIC CONSENSUS OF 2 TRILLION.
我們的經濟共識預期是 2 兆（此處指數字單位，依上下文推斷）。
25:13
MARKET CONSENSUS, LOOKING AT THINGS LIKE YIELDS, CYCLICALS,
STEEL PRICES EFFECTIVELY.
市場共識則是觀察收益率、景氣循環股、鋼價等指標。
25:19
CYCLICALS LIKE ATTAWAY CONCH,
CEMENT, THE REAL ESTATE GAUGE, 1.5%.
像是水泥等景氣循環股，以及房地產指標，下跌 1.5%。
25:21
ON TOP OF THE DROP WE HAD
YESTERDAY.
加上昨天已經出現的跌幅。
25:26
THE MARKETS RALLIED ON SHORE IN
CHINA YESTERDAY, EXCEPT FOR REAL ESTATE.
昨天中國股市出現反彈，除了房地產板塊之外。
25:29
THAT IN SOME WAYS GIVES YOU A SNAPSHOT OF MAYBE WHERE MARKETS
DON'T EXPECT THE SHORT-TERM FIX TO SHOW UP IMMEDIATELY.
這在某種程度上給了我們一個縮影，顯示市場可能不認為短期的解決方案會立即見效。
25:36
1, 5, 10, 30 ON YOUR SCREENS.
1, 5, 10, 30 顯示在您的螢幕上。
25:40
WE ARE SEEING A RALLY ON THE
LONG END.
我們看到長天期殖利率正在反彈。
25:42
FOURTH DAY.
這是第四天。
25:43
A 30 YEAR BOND OPTION TODAY.
今天有一筆 30 年期公債的選擇權交易。
25:45
KEEP THAT IN MIND.
請記住這一點。
25:46
WE WILL GET MORE DETAILS ON
THAT IN A MOMENT.
我們稍後會提供更多關於此事的細節。
25:49
APART FROM THAT, WE REALLY JUST
HAVE TO WAIT THIS OUT.
除此之外，我們真的只能靜觀其變。
25:51
YVONNE: HAVE SOME PATIENCE.
YVONNE: 要有一些耐心。
25:53
I THINK THAT IS WHAT ALL OF THE BULLS ARE SAYING NOW.
我想這就是目前所有多頭都在說的。
25:58
IS THIS REALLY THE START OF SOME SORT OF LONG BULL RUN, IS
STILL THE KEY QUESTION.
這是否真的是某種長期牛市的開端，仍然是關鍵問題。
26:02
LET'S BRING IN OUR ASIA
EQUITIES REPORTER JOINING US FROM TOKYO WITH MORE.
讓我們請駐東京的亞洲股票記者加入我們的討論。
26:05
WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING TODAY?
我們今天對市場有何預期？
26:09
WINNIE:
EXACTLY, LIKE YOU SAW, THE CSI MARKET OPENED ON QUITE WHAT WE
ARE EXPECTING VOLATILITY IN THE MARKET TODAY.
WINNIE: 沒錯，正如您所見，CSI 市場開盤時的波動性相當符合我們今天的預期。
26:22
WE ARE ALL WATCHING OR WAITING
FOR THE SATURDAY BRIEFING TO PROVIDE US WITH MORE HINTS ON
THE POLICY DIRECTION.
我們都在關注或等待周六的簡報，為我們提供更多關於政策方向的線索。
26:29
THE MARKET IS PRICING IN ORDER
EXPECTING A 2 TRILLION FISCAL SUPPORT.
市場目前的定價反映出預期將有 2 兆元的財政支持。
26:31
POTENTIALLY MORE SUPPORT ON THE CONSUMPTION DEMAND SIDE OF
THINGS.
在消費需求方面可能會有更多支持。
26:40
IF IN THE END, THE BRIEFING IS
NOT ABLE TO MEET THOSE EXPECTATIONS, WE ARE LIKELY TO
SEE ANOTHER SELLOFF ONCE THE MARKET REOPENS ON MONDAY.
如果最終簡報無法滿足這些預期，我們可能會在週一市場重新開盤時看到另一波賣壓。
26:49
RIGHT NOW, THE EXPECTATION IS SO HIGH.
目前，市場預期非常高。
26:53
IT'S LIKELY FOR THEM, IT IS HARDER FOR THEM TO SURPRISE ON
THE UPSIDE RIGHT NOW.
對他們來說，現在要在利多方面驚喜市場變得更加困難。
27:01
LIKE YOU MENTIONED, THE TIMING
ITSELF IS VERY INTERESTING.
就像您提到的，時間點本身非常有趣。
27:07
THE GOVERNMENT IS LIKELY WANT
TO AVOID A LOT OF VOLATILITY IN THE MARKET.
政府可能希望避免市場出現過多波動。
27:11
HENCE HAVING THIS ON SATURDAY SO TRADERS HAVE SOME TIME TO
REACT.
因此選擇在週六公佈，讓交易員有時間做出反應。
27:14
OVERALL, THE SENTIMENT IS STILL
REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW.
總體而言，目前市場情緒仍然非常高漲。
27:18
WE SAW LOTS OF RECORD
TURNOVERS, AND WE SAW THE RETAIL INVESTORS ARE VERY
EXCITED TO JOIN THAT RALLY.
我們看到了大量的創紀錄成交量，散戶投資者也非常興奮地想要參與這波反彈。
27:23
THAT IS ALSO PUSHING OUT THE
VOLATILITY QUITE A LOT, MAKING LONGER-TERM INVESTORS A LITTLE
BIT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHICH AREA TO PARTICIPATE RIGHT
NOW.
這也大大推升了波動性，使得長期投資者目前較難判斷該參與哪個領域。
27:34
DAVID: YEAH, I MEAN, IT IS ANYONE'S
GUESS.
大衛：是的，我的意思是，這很難預測。
27:37
ALTHOUGH, IF YOU LOOK AT IT
FROM THE LAST EIGHT TO 10 SESSIONS, CERTAINLY THERE ARE
CERTAIN SECTION -- SECTORS THAT HAVE OUTPERFORMED.
不過，如果你回顧過去 8 到 10 個交易日，確實有某些板塊表現優於大盤。
27:45
IS THERE ANYTHING WE CAN GLEAN FROM THAT OUR PERFORMANCE TO
FIGURE OUT WHAT PEOPLE ARE BETTING ON RIGHT NOW?
我們能從這些表現中看出些什麼端倪，從而判斷人們現在在押注什麼嗎？
27:51
WINNIE:
RIGHT.
薇妮：沒錯。
27:54
WE ARE SEEING THE TECH SECTOR
TO BE THE LEADING SECTOR IN THE ONSHORE MARKET, ONSHORE CSI
MARKET.
我們看到科技板塊成為境內市場，也就是境內 CSI 市場的領漲板塊。
28:04
THAT'S BECAUSE IT IS ONE OF THE
KEY BENEFICIARIES WHEN IT COMES TO THE POLICY TAILWINDS.
這是因為在政策利好的加持下，它是主要的受益者之一。
28:08
AND ALSO, A LOT OF OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS THE RECOVERY IN
THE OUTLOOK, AND THE DEMAND FOR THAT SECTOR SPECIFICALLY.
此外，還有許多其他因素，例如該板塊前景的復甦以及需求。
28:16
AND JUST ALSO THE CYCLICAL CYCLE.
還有就是景氣循環。
28:18
TACK AND GROWTH STOCKS CONTINUE TO BE ONE AREA THAT PEOPLE ARE
FOCUSING ON.
價值股和成長股仍然是人們關注的一個焦點。
28:30
AND ALSO SOME OF THE OTHER SECTORS THAT CAN RECEIVE THIS
POLICY BENEFITS, THAT INCLUDE SOME OF THE GREEN SUSTAINABLE
CONSUMPTION AREAS.
還有一些其他可以受惠於此政策的板塊，包括一些綠色和可持續消費領域。
28:40
WE ARE HEARING SOME OF THE FUND
MANAGERS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS RALLY TO SELL OFF SOME OF
THE SECTORS THAT ARE SEEING A LOW VISIBILITY FOR EARNINGS.
我們聽說一些基金經理正在利用這波反彈，出脫一些盈利能見度較低的板塊。
28:48
BECAUSE ALL OF THE SECTORS RIGHT ARE GAINING SO MUCH, TO
SELLOFF THAT AREA, AND TO BUY INTO AREAS THAT SEE MORE
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND
因為目前所有板塊都在大漲，所以他們選擇賣掉那些板塊，轉而買進那些具有更可持續增長前景的板塊，
28:58
IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS.
以及基本面有所改善的板塊。
29:03
YVONNE: OVERALL, HOW SHOULD WE BE
LOOKING AT THIS CHINESE MARKET, WHEN WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE YEAR NOW?
伊芳：總體而言，隨著我們現在越來越接近年底，我們該如何看待中國市場？
29:14
WINNIE:
SO, MOST INVESTORS ARE STILL SEEING MORE UPSIDE TO COME WITH
GOLDMAN SACHS SAYING THERE IS PROBABLY ANOTHER 15% OF UPSIDE.
薇妮：所以，大多數投資者仍然認為還有上漲空間，高盛就表示可能還有約 15% 的上漲空間。
29:22
IF WE ASSUME THAT POLICIES ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THROUGH, AND
EVEN IF THIS TIME THE BRIEFING DOES NOT MEET PEOPLE'S
EXPECTATION, THEY ARE CITING
如果我們假設政策很可能會落實，即使這次簡報未能達到人們的預期，他們還是引用了
29:34
THERE IS STILL MORE CATALYSTS
AND EVENTS TO COME.
未來仍有更多催化劑和事件。
29:38
WE HAVE ALSO GOT THE MPC COMING
UP, AND ALSO THE POLY BUREAU MEETING.
我們即將迎來 MPC 會議，還有 Poly Bureau 的會議。
29:41
THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GOVERNMENT TO SHOW THAT THEY
ARE TAKING THE SITUATION SERIOUSLY, AND THEY ARE MOVING
FORWARD WITH THE POLICIES.
政府有機會展示他們正在認真應對局勢，並且正在推進相關政策。
29:53
WITH THAT IN MIND, WHEN WE LOOK
AT THE CHINESE EQUITIES, THE LOW VALUATION AND ALSO THE
MAJOR UNDERWEIGHT'S THAT GLOBAL
考慮到這一點，當我們觀察中國股市時，其低估值以及全球
30:05
PORTFOLIOS STILL HAVE FOR THIS
MARKET ARE SOME OF THE UPSIDES THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE
TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR.
投資組合對該市場仍持有的大幅低配部位，是我們在年底能看到的一些上行潛力。
30:12
IN OUR VERY RECENT ASIA SURVEY,
WE ARE HEARING INVESTORS, MOST OF THEM SAYING THAT CHINA IS
LIKELY TO BE THE NUMBER ONE OUTPERFORMER WHEN IT COMES TO
ASIAN MARKETS TOWARD THE END OF
在我們最近的亞洲調查中，我們聽到投資者大多表示，中國很可能成為年底亞洲市場中表現第一的
30:24
THE YEAR. YVONNE:
ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU.
市場。 YVONNE:
30:26
WINNIE HSU, OUR ASIA EQUITIES
REPORTER.
許惠(WINNIE HSU)，我們的亞洲股市記者。
30:28
IT'S LIKE THEY ARE WATCHING OUR
SHOW, DAVID.
他們好像在看我們的節目，大衛。
30:30
DAVID: YOU JUST ASKED THE QUESTION WHO
COULD FOLLOW THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE.
DAVID: 你剛才問了誰會跟隨財政部的問題。
30:33
THINK WE HAVE THE ANSWER.
我想我們有答案了。
30:36
[LAUGHTER] YVONNE:
WE GOT MORE DETAILS THERE.
[笑聲] YVONNE:
30:40
AFTER THIS MEETING ON SATURDAY,
THERE IS A FOLLOW-UP ON MONDAY THIS IS WHAT THE REGULATORS
SAID.
週六的會議之後，週一還有後續會議，這是監管機構說的。
30:47
WE ARE HEARING WHEN IT COMES FROM THE AND FRA -- NFRA, AND THE SAMR.
我們聽說這涉及 NFRA 和 SAMR。
30:54
IF THAT WAS NOT
ENOUGH, YOU ARE GETTING MORE ON MONDAY TOO.
如果這還不夠，週一你還會得到更多消息。
30:59
DAVID:
MARKETS ARE GOING TO BE OPEN.
DAVID:
31:02
WE WILL SEE REACTION TO THAT AS
WELL.
我們也將看到市場對此的反應。
31:08
THE BULK OF THE DETAILS WE HAVE
SO FAR ON THAT.
這是我們目前掌握的大部分細節。
31:11
LET'S TABLE THAT, AS THEY SAY.
讓我們暫時擱置這個話題，就像他們說的。
31:12
HAVE A LOOK AT THIS OTHER BREAKING NEWS.
來看看這則其他突發新聞。
31:14
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT, THE BANK OF KOREA KICKED OFF THEIR
EASING CYCLE, HOW DEEP IT GETS.
如果您錯過了，韓國央行已啟動他們的寬鬆週期，但會寬鬆到什麼程度。
31:20
ONLY TIME WILL TELL.
這只有時間能證明。
31:23
WE ARE GETTING MORE DETAILS COMING THROUGHOUT THE BANK OF
KOREA STATEMENTS THE KEY THING HERE THAT HAS GONE RED ON YOUR
TERMINAL, THE RED HEADLINE, IS
我們正從韓國央行的聲明中獲得更多細節，您終端機上變紅的關鍵資訊，也就是紅色標題是：
31:34
THAT THEY HAVE REMOVED THE
PHRASE "RESTRICTIVE STANCE," FROM THEIR POLICY STATEMENT.
他們已從政策聲明中移除了「限制性立場」這個詞。
31:39
THAT IS KEY.
這點很關鍵。
31:40
WHAT THAT
MEANS, WE WILL REALLY GET MORE CONTEXT WHEN THE PRESS BRIEFING
BEGINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
這意味著什麼，等到約一小時後記者會開始，我們就能獲得更多背景資訊。
31:46
KEEP YOUR EYE ON THAT.
請持續關注。
31:49
WHEREFORE PERCENT.
為什麼是這個百分比。
31:51
YVONNE: YEAH, WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE
REASONS BEHIND BACKUP.
YVONNE：是的，我們將討論背後的原因。
31:54
MAYBE SOME OF THE MAIN BARRIERS
TO THAT PIVOT, HAVE BASICALLY STARTED TO FADE AS WELL.
也許導致這個轉向的一些主要障礙，基本上也已開始消退。
31:59
LET'S TALK ABOUT CHINA.
來談談中國。
32:02
WE HEARD FROM CHIEF INVESTMENT
OFFICER.
我們聽聽首席投資長的看法。
32:07
SAYING THAT CHINA'S STIMULUS
NEEDS TO TRANSLATE INTO MONEY REACHING TO CONSUMERS THAT NEED
IT THE MOST.
他表示中國的刺激措施需要轉化為資金，流向最需要的消費者。
32:12
THEY SPOKE TO US OUT THE PLATFORM IN SINGAPORE.
他們在新加坡的平台向我們發表了看法。
32:19
>> I THINK THE STEPS THE
GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED IS TRYING TO BREAK THIS LOGJAM.
>> 我認為政府宣布的措施正試圖打破這個僵局。
32:23
AND CREATE THAT CONFIDENCE WHICH WOULD CREATE A VIRTUOUS
LOOP.
並建立信心，從而創造一個良性循環。
32:28
MOST IMPORTANTLY, ARREST THE
FALLEN PROPERTY PRICES.
最重要的是，止住房價下跌。
32:34
SECONDLY, HAVE THIS CONSUMER
STIMULUS TRANSFERRING MONEY TO PEOPLE WHO NEED IT.
其次，讓這項消費刺激措施將資金轉移給有需要的人。
32:39
REDUCING MORTGAGE RATES SO PEOPLE HAVE MORE MONEY TO SPEND.
降低抵押貸款利率，讓民眾有更多錢可以消費。
32:44
IN DOING A BUNCH OF THINGS AROUND THAT WHICH AT LEAST
CREATES THE DESIRE TO SPEND.
在圍繞著至少能激發消費慾望的領域，執行多項措施。
32:47
AND IT WILL SPEND IF CONFIDENCE
COMES UP.
如果信心回升，消費就會增加。
32:52
THE OTHER SIDE, BY CREATING A
BOOST TO THE STOCK MARKET, HOPEFULLY CREATING CONFIDENCE,
AND SHOWING THAT WE WILL BE BEHIND YOU, GIVING INSTRUCTIONS
TO THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS.
另一方面，藉由提振股市，希望能建立信心，並展示我們將作爲後盾，已向地方政府下達指示。
33:04
THE FIRST STEP HAS BEEN DONE IN
TERMS OF ANNOUNCING THE MONETARY POLICY.
第一步已在宣布貨幣政策方面完成。
33:06
THE BIG ISSUE HAS GOT TO BE THE FISCAL POLICY.
關鍵問題必須是財政政策。
33:09
WHAT YOU THE SIZE AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, HOW IT WILL BE
IMPLEMENTED.
重點在於規模，以及最重要的，將如何執行。
33:13
ON THE REAL ESTATE SIDE, THEY
HAVE TALKED ABOUT ALLOWING LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO RAISE
BONDS THAT THEY CAN USE TO BUY PROPERTY AND SUPPORT PRICES PER
THE COST OF BORROWING WAS
在房地產方面，他們談到允許地方政府發行債券，用以收購房地產並支撐價格，因爲當時的借貸成本。
33:25
HIGHER THAN THE YIELD THEY WERE
GETTING ON RENTALS FROM THE PROPERTIES THEY BOUGHT.
高於他們從所購房地產租金中獲得的收益率。
33:29
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS DON'T HAVE THE FINANCIAL CAPACITY -- THE
BALANCE SHEET IS IN A BAD SHAPE.
地方政府沒有財務能力——其資產負債表狀況不佳。
33:34
YOU HAVE TO POLICY BUT IT COULD
NOT BE IMPLEMENTED.
你必須制定政策，但卻無法執行。
33:37
THE WAY THIS WILL BE
IMPLEMENTED IS GOING TO BE FAIRLY CRITICAL.
執行方式將相當關鍵。
33:40
OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, WE SHOULD GET MORE CLARITY ON THAT.
在接下來的幾週內，我們應該會得到更明確的資訊。
33:43
>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE FISCAL STIMULUS.
>> 您談到了財政刺激的規模。
33:47
WHAT IS BIG ENOUGH?
多大才算足夠？
33:50
THE NUMBERS OUT THERE SUGGEST
TO TRILLION YUAN, 3 TRILLION YUAN ACCORDING TO CITI.
市場的數字顯示約 1 兆至 3 兆元人民幣，根據花旗銀行的數據。
33:56
IF YOU WERE TO ANNOUNCE 3 TRILLION, WHAT NUMBERS ARE YOU
LOOKING AT?
如果宣布 3 兆元，您預期的具體數字是多少？
34:01
>> TO ME MORE IMPORTANT THAN
THE SIZE, IT IS HOW THAT WILL BE IMPLEMENTED.
>> 對我來說，比規模更重要的是將如何執行。
34:04
IS THAT MONEY GOING TO DO WHAT IT IS INTENDED TO DO?
這筆錢能否發揮其預期的作用？
34:07
ARRESTING THE DECLINE IN PROPERTY PRICES, THE WAY IT IS
IMPLEMENTED WILL DECIDE WHETHER IT CAN HAPPEN OR NOT.
要阻止房價下跌，執行方式將決定能否成功。
34:15
IF IT IS MOVING IN THE RIGHT CHANNELS, AND THEY FIND $2
TRILLION ENOUGH, THEY WILL PUT MORE.
如果資金流向正確的渠道，且他們認爲 2 兆元足夠，他們將投入更多。
34:19
IT IS A QUESTION OF OK, NOW IT WILL HAPPEN LATER.
關鍵在於，好的，這件事稍後才會發生。
34:22
YOU HAVE TO SEE EFFECTIVENESS IN THAT POLICY.
你必須看到該政策的成效。
34:25
TO ME, THAT IS THE MOST CRITICAL THING.
對我來說，這是最關鍵的一點。
34:28
DAVID:
THERE YOU GO.
大衛：
34:31
ON YOUR SCREEN TO YOUR LEFT.
在您螢幕的左側。
34:37
OUR COLLEAGUE, AS WELL.
還有我們的同事。
34:40
AT THE FORUM IN SINGAPORE.
在新加坡的論壇上。
34:44
JUST AHEAD, WE WILL BE JOINED
BY GOLDMAN SACHS, TALKING ABOUT CARS.
稍後，高盛將加入我們，討論汽車產業。
34:45
WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR EV'S.
我們將討論電動車的前景。
34:47
WHAT THESE LATEST STIMULUS MEASURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
ACHIEVE SO FAR, AS FAR AS SALES GO.
這些最新的刺激措施在銷售方面迄今達成了什麼成效。
34:51
AND WHAT THE INDUSTRY LOOKS
LIKE.
以及該產業的現況。
34:53
PLENTY MORE AHEAD.
後續還有更多精彩內容。
34:55
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博社。
35:06
♪ YVONNE:
WELCOME BACK TO "THE CHINA
♪ 伊凡：
35:22
SHOW."
YOUR HEADLINES WE ARE TRACKING IN THE AUTO SECTOR THIS MORNING.
觀察」節目。
35:27
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE DONALD TRUMP SAYS HE WANTS TO
BOOST THE U.S.
共和黨總統候選人唐納·川普表示，他希望
35:31
AUTO INDUSTRY BY MAKING
INTEREST ON CAR LOANS FULLY TAX DEDUCTIBLE.
透過將汽車貸款利息列為全額免稅，來提振美國的
35:36
EVERY NEGOTIATING A TRADE DEAL WITH MEXICO AND CANADA.
汽車產業。
35:40
HE WAS SPEAKING IN MICHIGAN, THE TRADITIONAL HOME OF THE U.S.
他正在密西根州發表演說，那裡是美國
35:45
CAR SECTOR.
汽車產業的傳統重鎮。
35:46
TRUMP ALSO SAYS HE WOULD BAN
CHINESE SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES FROM AMERICAN ROADS.
川普也表示，他將禁止中國的自駕車行駛在美國道路上。
35:49
, MR. TRUMP: THE AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLES THEY WILL STOP OPERATING ON AMERICAN ROADS.
川普先生：他們的自動駕駛車輛將停止在美國道路上運行。
35:57
REMEMBER THIS.
請記住這一點。
35:58
I WILL CLOSE THE LOOPHOLES ON
-- UNDER BIDEN AND HARRIS THAT ARE BEGINNING TO ALLOW CHINESE
VEHICLES TO CREEP INTO AMERICAN STREETS.
我將堵住拜登和賀錦麗任內的漏洞，這些漏洞正開始讓中國車輛悄悄進入美國街道。
36:08
YVONNE: PASSENGER CAR SALES IN CHINA
EDGED UP 2% IN SEPTEMBER FROM A YEAR AGO.
伊芳（Yvonne）：中國九月的乘用車銷量較去年同期微幅增長 2%。
36:10
NOW INDUSTRY DATA PUTS
PRELIMINARY DELIVERIES AT JUST OVER 2 MILLION UNITS, AND EIGHT
-- AN 8% RISE FROM AUGUST.
目前產業數據顯示初步交付量略超過 200 萬輛，較八月增長 8%。
36:22
NEW ENERGY SALES SWORD APPEARED 51%
ON YEAR.
新能源車銷量年增 51%。
36:25
THE PASSENGERS CAR ASSOCIATION
SAYS THE FIGURES DON'T REFLECT THE EFFECTS OF STIMULUS
ANNOUNCED LATE LAST MONTH.
乘用車協會表示，這些數據尚未反映上個月底宣布的激勵措施所帶來的影響。
36:31
BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ QUARTERLY
SALES PLUNGED IN CHINA AS THE GERMAN AUTOMAKERS FACE WEAK
CONSUMER DEMAND AND A RAPID SHIFT TO EV'S FROM LOCAL RIVALS.
SOURCES TELL US MUSKA WILL TALK
ABOUT PLANS FOR DRIVER ASSISTANCE VEHICLES AND THE
COMPANY'S HUMANOID OPTIMIST ROBOT.
消息人士告訴我們，馬斯克將談及輔助駕駛車輛的計劃，以及該公司的人形 Optimus 機器人。
37:19
THEY CALL IT THE ROBOTS.
他們稱之為 Optimus 機器人。
37:21
DAVID:
THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE TAKING PLACE RIGHT NOW.
大衛（David）：這應該正在進行中。
37:26
YVONNE: SOON.
伊芳（Yvonne）：快了。
37:29
DAVID: TESLA IS DOING THAT.
大衛（David）：Tesla 正在進行這項活動。
37:31
A LOT OF IT IS HAPPENING IN CHINA.
其中很多是在中國發生的。
37:34
TINA, AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THIS EVENT THAT TESLA AT THE
MUCH AWAITED EVENT THAT TESLA IS UNVEILING AND HOSTING, YOU
HAVE BEEN IN SEVERAL OF THESE
蒂娜（Tina），在 Tesla 舉辦這場备受期待的活動的背景下，你曾多次參與此類活動。
37:49
IN MAINLAND CHINA.
在中國大陸。
37:50
GIVE US A SENSE OF WHERE THE TECHNOLOGY IS IN CHINA,
RELATIVE TO SAY, TESLA, AT THIS POINT IN TIME?
能否說明目前中國的技術發展程度，
37:55
TINA:
HI, GOOD MORNING HERE THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME BACK.
TINA:
38:01
I THINK THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ROBOTAXI COMPANIES IN CHINA,
INCLUDING FOR EXAMPLE PONY AI
我認為中國有許多自動駕駛計程車公司，
38:11
AS WELL AS WERIDE.
以及文遠知行（WeRide）。
38:13
OVER THE PAST YEAR OR SO, WE HAVE BEEN IN SEVERAL TEST RIDES
IN THESE DIFFERENT ROBOTAXIS.
過去一年左右，我們進行了數次試乘，
38:20
I WOULD SAY THE PERFORMANCES OF
THESE TAXIS VARY.
我認為這些計程車的
38:25
ONE OF THE BEST ONES WE HAVE
HAD IS A ROBOTAXI RIDE FOR AROUND 45 MINUTES THROUGHOUT,
IN A VERY BUSY DISTRICT AROUND LIKE 4:00 P.M., 5:00 P.M.
我們搭乘過最好的其中一次，
38:36
YOU COULD SAY IT IS RUSH-HOUR.
可以說是尖峰時段。
38:39
THERE IS NO SAFETY PERSONNEL IN
THE FRONT ROW.
駕駛座上沒有安全人員。
38:44
SO IT IS REALLY LIKE A FULL
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING.
所以這真的很像完全
38:47
THEN THAT RIDE WAS VERY SMOOTH
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE RIDE.
當時的行程全程非常順暢。
38:51
BUT WE HAVE ALSO ENCOUNTERED
SOME OTHERS, WHICH FOR EXAMPLE, IF IT IS UNDER A RAINY DAY
CONDITION, THE WEATHER CONDITION IS NOT VERY GOOD,
THEN THAT MIGHT BE SOMETHING
但我們也遇到過
39:01
WITH ITS VISION.
（原文筆誤，應為 vision）。
39:03
THERE WILL BE SOME INTERVENTIONS OR EMERGENCY
BRAKES, OR SOMETIMES IT JUST STOPS ON THE ROAD AND SOME
SAFETY PERSONNEL NEEDS TO BE
可能會有介入或緊急
39:13
CALLED FROM THE BACKEND TO
RESTART THE CAR.
來重新啟動車輛。
39:17
I WOULD SAY OVERALL, I THINK OF
ELEMENT, A NUMBER OF COMPANIES ARE FOCUSED ON THE DEVELOPMENT.
整體而言，我認為
39:24
BUT THE PERFORMANCE STILL VARIES FROM TRIP TO TRIP, AND
THEN FROM COMPANY TO COMPANY.
但表現仍因行程而異，
39:28
YVONNE: OK.
YVONNE: 好的。
39:31
MAYBE WE ARE NOT QUITE THERE.
也許我們還沒完全達到那個境界。
39:38
YOU WERE TRACKING SOME OF THESE
NUMBERS OVER THE HOLIDAYS.
您在假期期間持續關注其中一些數據。
39:40
THERE IS A LOT OF TALK ABOUT
THE EV SECTOR LOOKING RESILIENT IN THE FACE OF THIS CONSUMPTION
DOWNGRADE.
市場上有許多討論指出，面對消費下修，電動車板塊展現出韌性。
39:44
WHAT DID YOU FIND DURING THE
GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAY?
您在黃金週假期期間發現了什麼？
39:48
TINA: WE DID THE CHECK AFTER THE
GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAY.
TINA：我們在黃金週假期結束後進行了調查。
39:55
OVERALL, ORDERS ON A WEEKLY
BASIS ACTUALLY IMPROVED OVER 50%.
整體而言，每週訂單實際上增長了超過 50%。
39:58
IF WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE
GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAY VERSUS AN AVERAGE WEEKLY ORDER IN
SEPTEMBER.
這是將黃金週假期的表現與 9 月份的平均每週訂單進行比較。
40:09
FOR THE TOP 10, SOME OF THE
MAJOR 10 EV BRANDS.
針對前 10 大，也就是主要的 10 個電動車品牌。
40:13
OBVIOUSLY, I THINK THAT IS A
VERY ENCOURAGING AND STRONG NUMBER.
顯然，我認為這是一個非常令人振奮且強勁的數字。
40:16
SOME OF THEM, THE HIGHEST ORDER INCREASED BY OVER 100%.
其中有些品牌的最高訂單增幅超過了 100%。
40:21
THAT IS ENCOURAGING.
這非常令人振奮。
40:25
WE ALSO SAW FROM THE SEPTEMBER
DATA THAT THE EV PENETRATION REACHED 54% YEAR-OVER-YEAR.
我們從 9 月份的數據中也看到，電動車滲透率年增率達到 54%。
40:30
THAT IS DEFINITELY ENCOURAGING.
這絕對是令人振奮的。
40:33
I THINK THE STRONG VOLUME FOR
THE OCTOBER HOLIDAY IS CONTRIBUTED BY TWO THINGS.
我認為 10 月份假期的強勁銷量主要歸功於兩點。
40:39
NUMBER ONE, OBVIOUSLY, GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY OR TRADING
SUBSIDIES STARTED TO TAKE EFFECT.
第一，顯然是政府補貼或以舊換新補貼開始生效。
40:46
WE DID SOME STORE VISIT AND TEST RIDES IN THE END OF
SEPTEMBER.
我們在 9 月底進行了一些店面走訪和試駕。
40:52
FROM OUR CONVERSATION WITH THE
SALESPEOPLE, THERE IS ABOUT 10% TO 20% INCREMENTAL ORDERS.
根據我們與銷售人員的交談，大約有 10% 到 20% 的增量訂單。
40:58
STIMULATED BY THESE GOVERNMENT TRADING POLICIES.
這是受到這些政府以舊換新政策的激勵。
41:02
SO THAT IS WHAT.
所以這就是。
41:05
WE HAVE OBSERVED EARLY ON.
我們早期觀察到的情況。
41:07
AND THEN, SO FAR, ACCORDING TO OUR TRACKER, THERE ARE ALREADY
ABOUT 1.1 MILLION APPLICATIONS FOR THE TRADING POLICY ALREADY.
此外，目前根據我們的追蹤器，以舊換新政策的申請數量已經達到約 110 萬件。
41:15
THAT IS THE FIRST REASON.
這是第一個原因。
41:17
OBVIOUSLY, THE SUBSIDY WILL
HELP.
顯然，補貼將會有所幫助。
41:20
THE SECOND REASON IS ALSO OVER
THE PAST MONTH OR SO, WE'VE SEEN A LOT NEW MODEL LAUNCHES.
第二個原因則是，在過去一個月左右，我們看到了許多新車型的發布。
41:27
STARTING FROM LATE AUGUST.
從八月底開始。
41:31
SO THERE ARE OVER 10 NEW EV MODEL
LAUNCHES, INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE HIGH-PROFILE ONES, LIKE
ZEEK OR SEVENX.
I THINK BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONGER ORDER MOMENTUM AND SALES
MOMENTUM GOING INTO THE GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAY.
我認為這兩個因素都有助於在黃金週假期前帶動強勁的訂單動能和銷售動能。
41:52
DAVID: RIGHT.
大衛 (David)：對。
41:55
TINA, JUST TO CLARIFY, WHEN YOU
SAY INCREMENTAL, AND I'M NOT SURE IF YOU HAVE DATA ON THIS,
BECAUSE INCREMENTAL COULD BE IN ADDITION TO WHAT COULD HAVE
BEEN.
ARE THE SALES SIMPLY BEING BROUGHT FORWARD BECAUSE OF THE
SUBSIDIES?
銷售是否僅僅因為補貼而提前了？
42:04
THE OTHER PART, YOU MENTIONED A
LOT OF MODELS COMING THROUGH.
另外一部分，你提到有許多新車型推出。
42:08
ARE YOU EXPECTING THE SAME
PRICE CUTS, THE INTENSE COMPETITION WE HAVE LATE LAST
YEAR TO BE A FEATURE GOING INTO THE FOURTH QUARTER OF THIS YEAR?
你是否預期今年第四季也會出現類似的降價，以及去年底那樣激烈的競爭？
42:21
TINA: RIGHT.
蒂娜 (Tina)：對。
42:23
I THINK THE 10% TO 20% THAT
SALES PEOPLE QUOTED IS WHEN WE ASKED THEM HOW MUCH INCREMENTAL
DEMAND DO YOU THINK IS BROUGHT ON BY THE STIMULUS FOR THE
TRADING POLICY.
WITHOUT THE STIMULUS TRADING,
PEOPLE PROBABLY WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE DECISION AT THAT TIME.
如果沒有貿易激勵措施，人們可能不會在那個時間點做出決定。
42:49
THAT'S ONE.
這是一點。
42:52
TWO, IN TERMS OF THE
COMPETITIVENESS -- COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE OR THE PRIZE
COMPETITION, LAST YEAR, GOING INTO THE FOURTH QUARTER, THERE
-- THEY WERE MORE PRIZED
第二點，關於競爭力——競爭格局或價格競爭，去年進入第四季時，競爭更為激烈。
43:01
COMPETITIONS THIS YEAR, WE ARE
SEEING DIVERGING TRENDS BETWEEN EV AND ICE.
今年，我們看到電動車 (EV) 和燃油車 (ICE) 之間出現了不同的趨勢。
43:06
ARE WEEKLY TRACKER SHOWS FOR THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS,
THEIR DEALER DISCOUNT IS CONTINUING TO WIDEN.
根據最近一兩週的每週追蹤數據，他們的經銷商折扣幅度正在持續擴大。
43:14
FROM SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL OEM'S, THEIR COMMENTS ALSO SAY
THEY EXPECT CONTINUE TO SUBSIDY
從一些傳統原廠的評論中也可以看出
43:24
OR CONTINUED DEALER DISCOUNT TO
WIDEN.
或持續擴大經銷商折扣。
43:29
HOWEVER, FOR EV'S, I THINK WE
SEE LESS DEMAND OR LESS URGENCY TO DO MORE DISCOUNTS.
然而，對於電動車，我認為我們看到的需求較少，
43:34
BECAUSE THERE ARE TWO WAYS TO DRIVE VOLUME.
因為有兩種方式可以推動銷量。
43:38
NUMBER ONE, NEW MODEL LAUNCH.
第一，新車型上市。
43:41
NUMBER TWO, THE DISCOUNT.
第二，折扣。
43:43
IF YOU HAVE A LOT OF NEW MODEL LAUNCHES, YOU CAN DO THAT TO
DRIVE YOUR ORDER, DRIVE YOUR VOLUME.
如果你有許多新車型上市，你可以藉此
43:48
INSTEAD OF MAKING DISCOUNTS ON YOUR EXISTING CARS.
而不是對現有車款進行降價。
43:53
YVONNE: WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR EXPERTS
FOR SOME OF THESE CARMAKERS?
YVONNE：這對部分車廠的獲利意味著什麼？
43:58
DOES THAT START TO SLOW OR DO
IT CONTINUE TO RISE -- OR CAN IT CONTINUE TO RISE?
這是否開始放緩，還是
44:03
TINA:
IN TERMS OF EXPORT, EV EXPORT IS LACKING BEHIND.
TINA：
44:08
EV EXPORT IS AROUND 20%
YEAR-OVER-YEAR, VERSUS ICE IS AROUND 35% YEAR-OVER-YEAR.
電動車出口年增率約為 20%，
44:17
WE DID SEE THE OVERALL EV ADOPTION SLOW DOWN OVERSEAS,
HAS HAD IMPACT ON THE EXPORT SIDE OF THINGS.
我們確實看到海外整體電動車採用率放緩，
44:27
IN MY VIEW, THIS IS MORE NEAR-TERM, SHORT-TERM
VOLATILITY, DUE TO SEVERAL REASONS.
在我看來，這更多是短期的波動，
44:37
NUMBER ONE, I THINK OVERALL
SUPPLY, EV SUPPLY IN THE OVERSEAS MARKET IS NOT AS
STRONG AS IN CHINA.
第一，我認為海外市場的
44:41
ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
AFFORDABLE MASS-MARKET MODELS.
特別是在平價大眾市場車型方面。
44:44
NUMBER TWO, WE ALSO SAW SOME
MARKETS SUCH AS THAILAND THIS YEAR.
第二，我們也看到部分
44:48
THEY HAD AN EV SUBSIDY STEP DOWN VERSUS LAST YEAR.
他們的電動車補貼較去年減少。
44:53
THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SOME OF THE SLOWER EXPORT VOLUME.
這導致了部分出口銷量放緩。
44:59
WE THINK IT IS SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY.
我們認為這是短期波動。
45:06
BECAUSE THE SAME TYPE OF EV
SUBSIDY SLOWDOWN HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN CHINA OVER THE
PAST FIVE YEARS.
因為在過去五年中國也發生了同樣類型的電動車補貼放緩的情況。
45:13
EVENTUALLY, THE TECHNOLOGY, THE
PRODUCT ITSELF SHOULD DRIVE THE PENETRATION.
最終，技術和產品本身應該驅動滲透率。
45:15
YVONNE:
TINA HOU, THANK YOU SO MUCH, OTTO ANALYSTS JOINING US OUT OF
SHANGHAI.
YVONNE: TINA HOU，非常感謝您，OTTO分析師從上海為我們帶來連線。
45:23
WE HAVE PLENTY MORE AHEAD.
我們後續還有更多內容。
45:25
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是BLOOMBERG。
45:27
♪
♪
45:42
YVONNE:
WE ARE STILL ON A BACK FOOT HERE BUT DEALING WITH SWINGS
ACROSS THESE MARKETS ON THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING.
YVONNE: 我們今早在此仍處於守勢，正在處理中國大陸這些市場的波動。
45:48
GETTING CLOSER AROUND THAT 4000 LEVEL.
正在逼近4000點大關。
45:51
BUT STILL, WE ARE SEEING A STEEP DECLINE.
但我們仍看到急劇下跌。
45:54
1% OR MORE.
1%或更多。
45:54
SHENZHEN FALLING MORE THIS MORNING.
深圳今早跌幅更大。
45:57
DAVID:
THAT IS AHEAD OF A BRIEFING TOMORROW.
DAVID: 這是在明天的簡報會之前。
46:00
JUST IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO, WE FOUND OUT THAT THERE IS ANOTHER
BRIEFING TAKING PLACE ON MONDAY.
就在過去一小時左右，我們獲悉週一將舉行另一場簡報會。
46:08
THE DETAILS OF THAT STORY IN
該事件的詳情在
46:24
♪ YVONNE:
WELCOME BACK TO THE CHINA SHOW,
♪ YVONNE: 歡迎回到中國節目，
46:37
HERE'S A LOOK AT THE CSI 300.
這是CSI 300的走勢。
46:40
HONG KONG IS SHUT FOR A HOLIDAY TODAY SO IT WILL BE CHOPPY,
GIVEN WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE PRICE ACTION THE LAST FEW DAYS.
香港今天因假期休市，因此考慮到過去幾天的價格走勢，市場將會震盪。
46:49
VOLATILITY REALLY IS THE ONLY THING THAT IS STABLE SO FAR.
波動性目前似乎是唯一穩定的東西。
46:52
WE ARE LOOKING TO SEE IF THIS MOF BRIEFING ON SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEFING ON MONDAY COULD MAYBE STABILIZE
THESE MARKETS A LITTLE BIT.
我們正關注財政部週六的簡報會以及週一的另一場簡報會是否能稍微穩定這些市場。
47:01
DAVID: THE ONLY THING THAT IS
CONSTANTLY CONSISTENT IS CHANGE.
DAVID: 唯一始終不變的就是變化。
47:09
THAT IS SOMETHING DEEP FOR YOU
THIS FRIDAY.
這對你來說是個深奧的課題，就在本週五。
47:11
MORE ON THIS OTHER PRESS
BRIEFING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY, WE ARE LOOKING AT
MARKETS.
關於週一將舉行的另一場簡報會，我們將持續關注，我們正在觀察市場。
47:14
WE ARE DOWN FOR THE WEEK.
本週市場是下跌的。
47:15
IT HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT A NORMAL WEEK WHEN YOU LOOK AT
THESE MARKETS.
當你觀察這些市場時，這週發生了許多非比尋常的事。
47:24
MOST STOCKS ARE DOWN, LED BY
THE SMALL CAPS ON THE WAY DOWN.
大多數股票都在下跌，其中以小型股跌幅最深。
47:27
THE VALUATIONS DEPENDING ON
WHICH INDEX YOU LOOK AT ARE LARGELY BACK TO YOUR HISTORICAL
AVERAGES, ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT TO QUALIFY WHEN YOU
取決於你觀察哪個指數，估值大多已回到歷史平均水平，不過當你
47:40
LOOK AT XCHINA FOR EXAMPLE THAT
VALUATIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOWHERE NEAR OR STILL
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW WHERE THEY WOULD NORMALLY BE WHEN YOU GET
THE SUSTAINABLE MARKET AND
以 XCHINA 為例時，必須特別說明的是，目前估值遠未達到，或者說仍遠低於在可持續市場及
47:49
MULTIPLE EXPANSION.
本益比擴張時，通常應有的水平。
47:50
THERE IS ROOM FOR EXPANSION IF WE MOVE INTO A SUSTAINABLE BULL
MARKET.
如果我們進入一個可持續的牛市，估值還有擴張的空間。
47:56
LET'S TAKE A LISTEN TO WHAT
SOME OF OUR GUESTS ARE EXPECTING OUT OF TOMORROW'S
BRIEFING.
我們來聽聽一些嘉賓對明天的簡報會有何預期。
48:02
>> I THINK WE PROBABLY WOULD
GET SOME GUIDANCE, BUT I THINK WHAT THE MARKET IS HOPING FOR,
WE NEED SOME KIND OF BUDGET EXPANSION.
>> 我認為我們可能會得到一些指引，但我認為市場所期盼的是，我們需要某種形式的預算擴張。
48:09
WE STILL NEED THE APPROVAL FROM THE STANDING COMMITTEE.
我們仍需獲得常務委員會的批准。
48:16
>> I THINK THAT CHANGE IN
POLICY REACTION FUNCTION TO SOMETHING THAT IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE, HAVING CONVICTION IN THAT AS WE'VE SEEN FROM THE
MEETING AND THE COURT INVADED
>> 我認為政策反應機制轉向更積極的方向，對此要有信心，正如我們從會議中看到的，以及迄今為止的協調
48:26
ACTION SO FAR.
行動。
48:27
-- COORDINATED ACTION SO FAR.
迄今為止的協調行動。
48:31
WE REALLY NEED THE POLICY
SUPPORT.
我們真的需要政策支持。
48:34
WE ARE ALL WAITING FOR SATURDAY'S PRESS CONFERENCE TO
GET MORE DETAIL ON HOW MUCH WE ARE GETTING ON THE FISCAL SIDE.
我們都在等待週六的記者會，以了解更多關於財政端我們能獲得多少支持的細節。
48:41
>> THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
STIMULUS DOES MATTER BECAUSE MARKET EXPECTATION HAS RUN HIGH.
>> 刺激措施的規模確實很重要，因為市場預期已經很高。
48:46
I THINK WHETHER IT IS 2 TRILLION OR ABOVE 2 TRILLION,
THERE IS SOME EXPECTATION THERE.
我認為不論是 2 兆還是超過 2 兆，市場都抱持著某種預期。
48:54
YVONNE:
AND FOR CHINESE INVESTORS, IT WILL BE THAT MAGIC NUMBER THAT
COMES OUT ON SATURDAY.
YVONNE： 對中國投資者來說，週六公布的那個數字將會是關鍵。
49:01
IS THAT GOING TO BE ENOUGH?
這真的夠嗎？
49:08
$283 BILLION, THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW.
2830億美元，這似乎是目前的
49:11
WHAT COULD MAYBE SHORE UP SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY AND THESE MARKETS.
什麼或許能提振一些
49:13
WE HAVE A NEW BLOOMBERG SURVEY OUT THAT SUGGEST THAT IS WHAT
PEOPLE ARE BETTING ON.
我們有一項新的彭博調查出爐，顯示這正是
49:20
FOR MORE, LET'S BRING IN MINMIN
LOW.
為了了解更多，我們現在連線
49:24
IT IS SAFE TO SAY WE WILL ALL
NOT WORK -- WE WILL HAVE TO WORK THIS WEEKEND.
可以肯定地說，我們這週末
49:27
MINMIN:
THE BAR IS VERY HIGH FOR AN UPSET.
Minmin:
49:37
MARKETS ARE REALLY PRICING IN 2
TRILLION IN THIS STIMULUS.
市場確實已經將2兆美元的
49:41
ANYTHING BELOW THAT MIGHT
SUPPORT INVESTORS BUT CLOCK TOWER GROUP IS SAYING THERE IS A SELLOFF BY 5% IF THE MOF
BRIEFING IS DISAPPOINTING.
低於這個數字的任何方案或許
49:52
THEY ARE SEEING THIS IS A PRIME
OPPORTUNITY TO BUY BECAUSE THE BACKDROP AND SENTIMENT HAS
CHANGED AND THEY SEE THE MARKET HIGHS IN MAY AS A SOLID FLOW
FOR THE CURRENT MARKET CYCLE.
他們認為這是一個絕佳的
50:04
BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS IS SAYING
WE MIGHT NOT SEE ANY STIMULUS AT ALL BECAUSE THE CURRENT
BUDGET SPENDING SO FAR THIS YEAR, ONLY 55% OF THE BUDGET
HAS BEEN SPENT.
彭博經濟研究（Bloomberg Economics）表示，
50:18
18.4 TRILLION STILL NOT YET
DISPERSED SO WE MIGHT HEAR FROM THE MOF TOMORROW THAT THEY WANT
TO ACCELERATE THE CURRENT YEAR'S BUDGET SPENDING.
1.84兆美元仍未
50:27
THEY MAY ALSO WANT TO FRONTLOAD NEXT YEAR'S QUARTER OF SPECIAL
SOVEREIGN BONDS AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPECIAL BONDS.
他們可能也希望提前發行明年的
50:34
INVESTORS ARE LOOKING OUT FOR WHAT THE STIMULUS WILL TARGET.
投資人正關注刺激方案的
50:37
WHETHER WE WILL HEAR MORE CONSUMPTION DRIVEN MEASURES
TOMORROW.
我們明天是否會聽到更多以消費為導向的
50:43
YVONNE: ALSO, YOU MIGHT BE DISAPPOINTED FROM THIS FOM -- MOF BRIEFING
BECAUSE ANY FUNDING HAS TO MEET
Yvonne: 另外，你可能會對這次財政部的簡報
50:55
THE APPROVAL OF THE COMMITTEE
WHICH DOES NOT MEET EARL LATE OCTOBER OR EARLY NOVEMBER.
委員會的批准，而該委員會要到
51:05
DAVID: THEY HAVE NOT EVEN GOTTEN CLOSE
TO SPENDING THAT AMOUNT.
David: 他們甚至還沒有接近
51:10
THE FEEL-GOOD FACTOR IN MARKETS
REALLY HAS TO GO WITH BRIEFING AFTER BRIEFING.
市場的樂觀情緒
51:12
WE HAVE BEEN INFLATION PRINT THAT COMES OUT ON SUNDAY WHICH
I WOULD LARGELY IGNORE BECAUSE ON MONDAY, NOON NEWS, THIS
OTHER BRIEFING THAT HAS BEEN
我們週日將公布通膨數據，但我
51:24
ANNOUNCED.
ANNOUNCED.
51:25
MINMIN:
THE FINANCIAL REGULATOR, THE MARKET REGULATOR AND THE
MINISTRY OF TECHNOLOGY, THE INDUSTRY IN CHARGE OF POLICY
AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY AS IT
MINMIN:
51:38
RELATES TO COMMUNICATIONS,
TECHNOLOGY.
RELATES TO COMMUNICATIONS,
51:39
THIS IS WHERE WE MIGHT HEAR
MORE MEASURES PERHAPS TO SHORE UP PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH AND
INVESTMENT.
THIS IS WHERE WE MIGHT HEAR
51:47
IT WILL BE MORE SUPPLY-SIDE
POLICY.
IT WILL BE MORE SUPPLY-SIDE
51:49
THAT IS WHAT I THINK THE MEETING WAS REALLY
DISAPPOINTING BECAUSE IT IS IN CHARGE OF THE DEMAND-SIDE, AND
MAYBE IF THE MOF HAD COME
THAT IS WHAT I THINK THE MEETING WAS REALLY
51:59
BEFORE IT, THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN
BETTER BECAUSE WE COULD HEAR MORE ABOUT THE IMPLEMENTATION
OF WHAT MOF IS SAYING BUT THEY SLOPPED IT AROUND.
BEFORE IT, THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN
52:05
THAT IS KIND OF A LETDOWN.
THAT IS KIND OF A LETDOWN.
52:07
YVONNE:
YEAH, THEY SHOULD HAVE ORDERED THAT A BIT BETTER MAY BE.
YVONNE:
52:10
MIGHT HAVE BEEN A BETTER PROGRESS.
MIGHT HAVE BEEN A BETTER PROGRESS.
52:12
DAVID: YEAH, MARKETS WANT TO HEAR THE
WHAT, NOT THE HOW.
DAVID: YEAH, MARKETS WANT TO HEAR THE
52:20
THE HOW IS MORE IMPORTANT WHEN
YOU LOOK AT VALUATIONS.
THE HOW IS MORE IMPORTANT WHEN
52:28
MINMIN LOW GETTING US UP TO THE
CLOSEST POINT OF CERTAINTY AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S BRIEFING.
MINMIN LOW GETTING US UP TO THE
52:32
BASED ON HOW MARKETS HAVE TRADED AND THERE WAS A GOLDMAN
SACHS REPORT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT A FEW DAYS AGO THAT A LOT
OF THE HEDGE FUNDS HAD SOLD
BASED ON HOW MARKETS HAVE TRADED AND THERE WAS A GOLDMAN
52:43
THEIR POSITIONS BECAUSE OF HOW
FAR THE RALLY HAS COME.
THEIR POSITIONS BECAUSE OF HOW
52:47
THOSE HEDGE FUNDS ARE IN A
WORLD OF REGRET.
THOSE HEDGE FUNDS ARE IN A
52:48
YVONNE: THAT COULD BE COMING.
YVONNE: THAT COULD BE COMING.
52:51
THIS IS THE LEHMAN BROTHERS AND MERRILL LYNCH VETERAN, NOW ONE
OF THE BIGGEST CHINA BULLS.
THIS IS THE LEHMAN BROTHERS AND MERRILL LYNCH VETERAN, NOW ONE
53:02
HE'S TALKING 6000 FOR THE CSI
300 IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.
HE'S TALKING 6000 FOR THE CSI
53:04
THAT IS MORE THAN 50% UPSIDE.
THAT IS MORE THAN 50% UPSIDE.
53:07
WHAT HE SAYS IS WE SEE THE POLICY RESPONSE AS
SELF-PRESERVATION, REACTION TO THE WEAKNESS AND A POTENTIAL
MARIO DRAGHI-ESQUE DO WHAT IT
IT BASICALLY SETS US UP, THE
STARS HAVE ALIGNED FOR A RALLY.
DAVID: 與大衛·泰珀（David Tepper）所說的相似。
53:24
DAVID:
SIMILAR TO WHAT DAVID TEPPER HAD TO SAY.
我們的下一位來賓持有相似的看法。
53:27
OUR NEXT GUEST HAS A SIMILAR VIEW.
如果你覺得 50% 聽起來很瘋狂，她認為它可以漲到 100%。
53:30
IF YOU THINK 50% SOUNDS CRAZY, SHE THINKS IT CAN GO UP TO 100%.
感謝您加入我們。
53:37
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
週五早安。
53:39
HAPPY FRIDAY MORNING.
有太多事情要消化，但您憑什麼信心認為這個指數可以翻倍？
53:45
LOTS TO ONE PACK, BUT WHAT
GIVES YOU THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS INDEX COULD DOUBLE?
讓我追問一下——什麼時候？
53:49
LET ME PRESS YOU -- BY WHEN?
CHRISTY: 嗯，時機點始終是最大的問題，價值百萬美元的問題。
53:52
CHRISTY:
WELL, TIMING IS ALWAYS THE BIG QUESTION, THE MILLION-DOLLAR
QUESTION.
我認為在短期內，中國股市絕對有 10% 到 50% 的上漲空間。
53:59
I THINK THERE'S DEFINITELY AT
LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM, 10% TO 50% UPSIDE IN CHINESE EQUITIES.
但有幾個條件必須滿足。
54:06
A FEW CONDITIONS HAVE TO BE MET.
首先，中國當局迄今為止的宣布無疑是重大的。
54:11
FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE
ANNOUNCEMENTS THUS FAR BY THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES ARE
SIGNIFICANT UNDOUBTEDLY.
更重要的是，中國政府意識到需要採取更多措施，才能充分實現其阻止經濟下滑和達成增長目標的目標。
54:19
MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE CHINESE
ADMINISTRATION IS AWARE MORE IS NEEDED TO BE SUFFICIENT IN
ACHIEVING ITS OBJECTIVES OF ARRESTING ECONOMIC DECLINE IN
ACHIEVING GROWTH TARGETS.
這讓我們談到「規模」和「速度」的重要性。
54:32
THIS BRINGS US TO THE
IMPORTANCE OF QUANTUM AND SPEED.
我正在編碼很多分析模型。
54:36
I AM CODING A LOT OF THE
ANALYTICS.
在規模方面，數字很重要，這就是為什麼所有目光都集中在財政部周六的簡報會上。
54:41
QUANTUM WISE, FIGURES ARE
IMPORTANT AND THAT IS WHY ALL EYES ARE ON THE MINISTRY OF
FINANCE BRIEFING ON SATURDAY.
而彭博社的調查顯示，預計將宣布約 2 兆（美元）。
54:46
AND THE BLOOMBERG SURVEY
SHOWING AROUND 2 TRILLION THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ANNOUNCED.
我也要提出論點，財政部將能夠在沒有批准的情況下宣布一些措施。
54:53
I WOULD ALSO ARGUE THAT THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE WILL BE
ABLE TO MAKE SOME ANNOUNCEMENTS WITHOUT THE APPROVAL.
我也會認為財政部將能夠在未經批准的情況下做出一些宣布。
55:00
I THINK THAT ALSO SETS UP AND IT HAS DONE THAT -- WE SAW THAT
DURING THE PANDEMIC IN MARCH 2020 WHEN THEY ANNOUNCED SOME
SPECIAL MEASURES THAT GOES
SO, THAT BRINGS US TO THE
QUANTUM, THE NUMBERS ARE IMPORTANT, AND AS LONG AS THE
MEASURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORM OF CASH
VOUCHERS AND SUBSIDIES, THIS
WILL HELP TO ARREST SOME OF THAT CONCERN.
就有助於消除部分擔憂。
55:37
SO, THIS BRINGS US TO SPEED.
所以，這就談到了速度問題。
55:42
SPEED WISE, WE ARE SEEING SOME
EVIDENCE THAT AUTHORITIES ARE READY TO STEP UP IN TERMS OF
PUTTING PLANS INTO ACTIONS.
從速度來看，我們看到一些跡象顯示，當局已準備好加快行動，將計劃付諸實施。
55:51
I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE LAST
FIVE MEGA RALLIES IN CHINESE EQUITIES, THREE OF THEM HAVE
BEEN POLICY DRIVEN.
我認為，回顧中國股市過去五次大型反彈，其中三次都是由政策驅動的。
56:01
SO, THE SPEED IN TERMS OF
COMMUNICATIONS, IN TERMS OF ANNOUNCEMENTS -- EVEN IN THE
MOF, THIS TIME, IT IS UP TO THE NPC AT THE END OF THE MONTH.
因此，在溝通和宣布的速度方面——即使是財政部，這次也得等到月底的人大會議。
56:11
AND THE CONTINUATION OF THAT COMMUNICATION THAT PLANS,
ACTIONS ARE COORDINATED, THAT WILL GIVE US A LOT OF REASONS
TO ACTUALLY LOOK AT CHINA AS A
如果這種溝通能持續下去，證明計劃和行動是協調一致的，這將給我們充分的理由，
56:24
VERY INTERESTING VALUE
PROPOSITION.
將中國視為一個非常具吸引力的投資價值選項。
56:27
YVONNE: CHRISTY, I GET YOUR POINT.
伊芳（Yvonne）：克莉絲蒂（Christy），我明白你的觀點。
56:29
OTHERS ON THE OTHERS THAT HAVE EXPRESSED SKEPTICISM.
但也有其他人表達了懷疑。
56:32
THEY ARE STARTING TO FLY VALUATIONS ARE ONE THING.
他們認為估值開始過高。
56:36
BUT AFTER THIS EXPLOSIVE RALLY, WE ARE AT NORMAL LEVELS.
但在這波爆發性反彈之後，我們已經回到了正常水平。
56:41
WE HAVE NORMALIZED IN TERMS OF VALUATIONS, SO MAYBE IT IS NOT
AS CHEAP AS IT WAS A FEW WEEKS AGO.
我們的估值已經正常化，所以也許不像幾週前那麼便宜了。
56:45
THEN AGAIN, THIS WHOLE PROSPECT OF WE'VE BEEN HERE BEFORE.
此外，這種「似曾相識」的感覺。
56:50
WE'VE BEEN BURNED BEFORE SONY TIMES THAT YOU ARE NOT SEEING
LONG ONLY FUNDS CONVINCINGLY TAKE PART IN THIS MARKET.
我們過去曾多次受傷，所以你會發現長線基金並未令人信服地參與這波行情。
56:57
IT IS HARD TO CHASE THESE OUTSIDE GAINS.
很難去追趕這些外部收益。
56:59
WHAT IS THE COUNTERARGUMENT TO THAT?
對此的反駁論點是什麼？
57:01
CHRISTY:
OF COURSE, CHEAP CAN BE CHEAPER.
當然，便宜還可以更便宜。
57:09
OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS, THAT
HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE JUSTIFICATION THAT VALUATION IS
PROBABLY THE ONLY REASON ANYONE SHOULD BE INVESTING IN CHINA.
在過去幾年裡，這一直是人們投資中國的唯一理由，因為估值很低。
57:18
THAT HAS LED TO A LOT OF HESITATION.
這導致了很多猶豫。
57:26
EVEN VALUE INVESTORS, THEY'VE
BEEN LOOKING TO JUSTIFY THE LOW MULTIPLES IN CHINA OVER THE
LAST FEW YEARS WITH SOMETHING THAT IS MORE OPTIMISTIC AND
PROSPECTS OF A TURNAROUND.
就連價值投資者，在過去幾年裡，他們一直在試圖為中國的低本益比尋找更樂觀的理由，以及尋求復甦的前景。
57:35
I CAN ACTUALLY FIND IT IN THE
POLICY PIVOT.
我實際上可以在政策轉變中找到這一點。
57:38
I THINK THAT IS THE BIG
DIFFERENCE.
我認為這是巨大的差異。
57:43
DAVID: JUST TO ALSO YES YOUR THOUGHTS
ON THIS TOO -- YOU MENTIONED WE HAVE FIVE MEGA RALLIES 4, 3 OF
WHICH HAVE BEEN STIMULUS DRIVEN.
大衛：我也想聽聽你的想法——你提到我們有五次大型反彈，其中三次是由刺激措施推動的。
57:53
LET ME PLAY THE DEVILS ADVOCATE.
讓我扮演一下魔鬼的代言人。
57:57
BUT, I MEAN, THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CHALLENGES ARE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE.
但是，我的意思是，目前的經濟挑戰在於消費者信心。
58:05
ARGUABLY, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT AN ISSUE IN THESE THREE PREVIOUS RALLIES WHO RESPONDED
TO STIMULUS -- IT WAS A QUESTION OF MONEY EFFECTIVELY.
爭論點在於，在過去三次對刺激措施做出反應的反彈中，消費者信心並不是問題——這是一個資金問題。
58:14
ARGUABLY, YOU HAVE THE TOOLKIT OF THE GOVERNMENT.
爭論點在於，你擁有政府的工具箱。
58:18
THEY ARE THROWING EVERYTHING OUT THERE'S ALMOST, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING THEY HAVE NOT ENCOUNTERED BEFORE.
他們幾乎把所有東西都拿出來了，但這是他們以前從未遇到過的情況。
58:24
SO FAR, WE HAVE HEARD A LOT FROM POLICYMAKERS.
到目前為止，我們聽了很多政策制定者的聲音。
58:28
WHAT WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF INFORMATION ON IS HOW THE
CONSUMER WILL RESPOND.
我們沒有很多資訊的是消費者將如何反應。
58:34
I AM WONDERING WHAT GIVES YOU
THE CONFIDENCE THAT YOU THINK THEY WILL?
我想知道是什麼讓你確信他們會這樣做？
58:36
CHRISTY:
REALLY GREAT QUESTION.
克莉絲蒂：
58:41
DAVID, I WOULD ARGUE THAT THEY
HAVE PAID THEY HAVE -- THEY HAVE.
大衛，我認為他們已經付出了——他們已經。
58:44
THEY HAVE IN THE PAST WHEN
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AND POLICY DRIVERS WERE DEPLOYED TO
STIMULATE THAT.
他們過去在消費者信心低迷且推出政策來刺激時，就這樣做過。
58:55
THAT IS WHY WE THINK FROM
EXPERIENCE AND FROM HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, THERE WILL BE
POSSIBLY THIS BEING EFFECTIVE.
這就是為什麼我們從經驗和歷史角度來看，認為這可能會有效。
59:02
YOU KNOW WHAT?
你知道嗎？
59:04
DURING COVID AND EVEN AFTER THE REOPENING OF CHINA POST-COVID
PANDEMIC, THERE HAVE BEEN EXPERIMENTS ESSENTIALLY
PROVIDING CASH VOUCHERS FOR
在 COVID 期間以及疫情後中國重新開放之後，基本上進行了一些實驗，針對特定城市提供現金券。
59:17
CERTAIN CITIES ONLY.
僅限特定城市。
59:18
IT WAS NOT NATIONWIDE, BUT FOR CERTAIN CITIES.
這不是全國性的，而是針對特定城市。
59:22
THEY DISCOVERED THE MULTIPLES IN TERMS OF THE SPENDING, IF
YOU PROVIDE ONE DOLLAR INTO THE
他們發現了支出方面的乘數效應，如果你提供一美元給消費者，
59:33
POCKETS OF CONSUMERS, THEY CAN
ACTUALLY GIVE A MULTIPLE OF ABOUT THREE TIMES.
他們實際上可以產生大約三倍的乘數效應。
59:35
THAT WAS AN EXPERIMENT THAT WAS DONE IN POST-PANDEMIC.
這是疫情後進行的一項實驗。
59:40
IT HAS SHOWN ITS EFFECTIVENESS.
它已經顯示出其有效性。
59:44
AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I AGREE
THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS PROBABLY AT A MULTI-LOW AND IT
TAKES TIME.
在這個時間點，我同意消費信心可能處於多重低點，這需要時間恢復。
59:53
OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS, THE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN REALLY AT A DECLINE.
在過去三年中，消費信心確實一直在下降。
59:56
IT IS NOT REALLY BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF ANY RECOVERY.
它並沒有顯示出任何復甦的跡象。
59:59
IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO RECOVER AS WELL.
這也需要時間才能恢復。
1:00:02
WE PROBABLY WILL SEE THAT AS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT
LEVERS TH AT THE MINISTRY OF
我們可能會將其視為財政部在當前這個時間點能夠拉動的最重要槓桿之一。
1:00:13
FINANCE WILL BE ABLE TO PULL AT
THIS POINT IN TIME.
財政部在當前這個時間點能夠拉動的最重要槓桿之一。
1:00:16
YVONNE: IN THE MEANTIME, UNTIL WE GET
THAT INTO THE ECONOMY, THIS IS A VERY LIQUIDITY DRIVEN MARKET.
YVONNE: 與此同時，在我們將其注入經濟之前，這是一個流動性非常充裕驅動的市場。
1:00:21
IT IS BACK IN SOME WAYS.
從某些方面來說，它又回來了。
1:00:23
HOW ARE YOU POSITIONING?
您是如何配置資產的？
1:00:24
IF THE STATE HAS BEEN SET FOR SOME SORT OF MEGA RALLY, WHAT
IS THE INVESTMENT ADVICE NOW?
如果市場狀況已經為某種大型反彈做好了準備，那麼現在的投資建議是什麼？
1:00:30
CHRISTY:
FOR VALUE INVESTORS, YOU DEFINITELY ARE IN THE RIGHT
POSITIONS BECAUSE YOU HAVE BEEN POSITIONED, WELL-POSITIONED FOR
THIS.
CHRISTY: 對於價值投資者來說，你們絕對處於正確的位置，因為你們已經為此做好了佈局。
1:00:39
I THINK EVEN IF YOU LOOK AT THE
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, THE FED IS CUTTING RATES.
我認為即使你審視全球環境，聯準會正在降息。
1:00:42
WE ARE REACHING THE LAST STRETCH OF THE U.S.
我們正 reaching the last stretch of the U.S. (抵達美國的最後衝刺階段)。
1:00:47
ELECTIONS.
選舉。
1:00:48
SO, THE BACKDROP -- IF YOU LOOK AT JUST WHERE, YOU KNOW,
PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKETS
所以，背景是——如果你只看新興市場的表現，
1:01:02
OR EQUITIES IN APAIC, AND YOU
ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY ON AVERAGE AROUND 70% OF RALLY IN
CHINESE EQUITIES, JUMPED MONTHS FROM THE FED'S FIRST RATE CUT.
或者亞太地區的股票，你可能會看到中國股票平均反彈約 70%，在聯準會首次降息後的幾個月內跳升。
1:01:14
I THINK NOT JUST AS VALUE INVESTORS, BUT ANYONE LOOKING
INTO JUST CHINA AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE POLICY PIVOT
THAT IS HAPPENING, THERE ARE
我認為不僅是價值投資者，任何關注中國的人，以及因為正在發生的政策轉向，
1:01:22
MANY WAYS TO POSITION THIS.
都有許多方式來佈局。
1:01:25
YOU CAN REALLY INCREASE EXPOSURE EITHER BY HONG KONG OR
INCREASINGLY VIA SOME OF THE PASSIVE ETF'S.
你真的可以透過香港或日益增加地透過一些被動型 ETF 來增加曝險。
1:01:33
DAVID:
YEAH, CHRISTY, YOU ARE RIGHT.
大衛：
1:01:38
IT REALLY DOESN'T MATTER WHAT
VEHICLE IF IT GOES UP 100%.
如果它上漲 100%，用什麼工具真的不重要。
1:01:43
WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE FOR THE
U.S.
這對美國來說意味著什麼？
1:01:45
WHICH TOUCHED A RECORD HIGH,
MARKETS THAT HAVE DONE WELL ON THE BACK OF MAYBE BECAUSE CHINA
HAD NOT DONE WELL?
美國股市觸及歷史高點，表現良好，也許是因為中國表現不佳？
1:01:51
JUST YOUR THOUGHTS AND
EVERYTHING -- ON EVERYTHING?
你的想法是什麼——關於這一切？
1:01:56
CHRISTY:
PERHAPS FROM A MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE, THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME OF THIS ALLOCATION AWAY FROM THE HIGH PERFORMERS AND
BACK INTO CHINA, BUT I WOULD
克莉絲蒂：
1:02:08
SAY AT THIS POINT IN TIME, A
LOT OF -- THE GLOBAL BACKDROP IS JUST SHOWING SIGNS THAT THEY
ARE INCREASINGLY FOR EQUITIES
在目前這個時間點，全球宏觀背景只是顯示出一些跡象，對於股票市場來說，
1:02:19
MARKETS, THERE IS STILL ROOM TO
GROW.
仍有增長的空間。
1:02:24
AN INCREASE.
會增加。
1:02:27
THE RALLIES HAVE LEGS, ALTHOUGH
INVESTORS HAVE TO BE MINDFUL.
反彈有持續力，儘管投資者必須留意。
1:02:32
WE WOULD ALWAYS SUGGEST GETTING
OUT OF CASH BUT GOING INTO QUALITY, GOING INTO ESSENTIALLY
GROWTH.
我們總是建議從現金轉出，但要進入優質資產，本質上是進入成長型資產。
1:02:38
CERTAIN SECTORS THAT WILL
ACTUALLY LOOK TO BENEFIT, BE IT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY,
FINANCIALS OR ENERGY, THAT TO LOOK TO BENEFIT FROM THE MORE
CONSTRUCTIVE GLOBAL BACKDROP.
某些將真正受惠的板塊，無論是可選消費、金融或能源，這些板塊將從更具建設性的全球背景中受惠。
1:02:50
YVONNE:
IT SEEMS LIKE YOU ARE LEANING TOWARDS EQUITIES AND RISK
ASSETS.
伊凡：
1:02:56
HOW SHOULD A LOOK AT TREASURIES
AND BONDS RIGHT NOW?
現在應該如何看待美國公債和債券？
1:03:00
WE HAVE SEEN THIS TREASURY
CURVE SHIFT AROUND THE 4% LEVEL.
我們看到這個公債殖利率曲線在 4% 水準附近波動。
1:03:03
DO YOU THINK WE ARE BACK TO
FAIR LEVELS AFTER THIS SHARP SELLOFF?
經過這次大幅賣壓後，您認為我們是否已回到合理水準？
1:03:06
CHRISTY:
FOR THE LONG-TERM, THERE IS STILL SOME SCOPE FOR THE
CONCERNS THAT HOW IS THE U.S.
克莉絲蒂：
1:03:16
ECONOMY SLOWING, THE EXTENT OF
THE SLOWDOWN AND WHETHER OR NOT INFLATION WILL PICK UP.
以及通膨是否會回升，
1:03:19
THERE'S A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM THAT WE
WOULD PROBABLY WANT TO BE CAUTIOUS FO.
仍存在一些擔憂的空間。
1:03:26
POTENTIALLY -- OF.
長期而言有更多不確定性，我們可能需要保持謹慎。
1:03:31
POTENTIALLY 4.15 FOR THE 10
YEAR WOULD BE A GOOD ENTRY-LEVEL.
潛在的——對於。
1:03:33
TO LOOK THROUGH SOME OF THE VOLATILITY THAT WILL PRESENT
ITSELF IN THE NEAR TERM, LOOK AT SHORT TO MEDIUM-TERM,
INTERMEDIARY TREASURIES.
潛在來說，10 年期公債殖利率 4.15% 可能是一個不錯的進場水準。
1:03:43
THOSE ARE ACTUALLY GOOD
POSITIONS TO BE -- TO HEDGE AGAINST THE VOLATILITY.
為了度過短期內將出現的波動，可以關注中短期的中期公債。
1:03:48
DAVID:
YOU JUST SAID GET OUT OF CASH.
這些實際上是很好的部位，可以用來——對沖波動風險。
1:03:51
I AM KIDDING.
大衛：
1:03:51
CHRISTY, HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.
我開玩笑的。
1:03:54
CHRISTY: YOU TOO.
克莉絲蒂，週末愉快。
1:03:59
DAVID: ALL RIGHT, WE'RE WAITING TO
HEAR OUT OF THE BANK OF KOREA.
克莉絲蒂：你也是。
1:04:05
THEY HAD A RATE CUT ABOUT ONE
HOUR BACK.
大衛：好的，我們正在等待韓國央行的消息。
1:04:09
SOME CHANGES TO SOME OF THE
COMMENTARY AND PHRASING OUT OF THE BANK OF KOREA.
他們大約在一小時前降息了。
1:04:11
THEY WILL EFFECTIVELY GIVE US CONTEXT OF WHEN THIS BRIEFING
BEGINS IN A COUPLE OF MINUTES.
韓國央行的一些評論和措辭有些變化。
1:04:19
IN THE MEANTIME, IT IS D-DAY
FOR TESLA AND ELON MUSK AS THE FIRM REVEALS ITS LONG-AWAITED
DRIVERLESS ROBOTAXI PROTOTYPE.
THE REASON I BRING THAT UP IS
BECAUSE THE MINUTES OUT OF THE FED MEETING HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
NOT EVERYONE WAS ON BOARD 50.
我之所以提起這件事，是因為聯準會會議記錄顯示，並非所有人都支持降息 50 個基點。
1:05:45
I THINK THAT IS KEY TO NOTE.
我認為這點非常關鍵。
1:05:46
WE ARE GETTING TO THE POINT IN THE CYCLE OF HOW DEEP DO WE
GET, HOW BIG DO WE DELIVER.
我們正處於這波景氣循環的關鍵時刻，究竟要降息多深、幅度多大。
1:05:53
THERE WILL BE A DISPERSION OF
OPINIONS.
意見將會出現分歧。
1:05:56
IT IS THE JOB OF THE GENTLEMAN
IN FRONT OF YOU TO CLARIFY WHAT THE MESSAGE SHOULD BE.
你面前那位先生的職責，就是釐清訊息應該為何。
1:06:00
YVONNE:
IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL DO AT LEAST THREE MONTHS.
伊凡：
1:06:05
THAT IS MAYBE THIS IS JUST ONE FOR NOW AND WE WILL ASSESS,
WAIT WHAT THE FED DOES LATER.
這也許只是目前的一步，我們會評估，等等看聯準會稍後怎麼做。
1:06:12
AT LEAST KICKING IT OFF.
至少已經啟動了。
1:06:14
I TALKED ABOUT WHAT MAY HAVE LED TO THIS PIVOT FROM THE BOK.
我剛才談到可能導致韓國央行轉向的原因。
1:06:19
INFLATION IS BACK TO TARGET.
通膨已回到目標。
1:06:21
SIGNS OF COOLING IN THE HOUSING
MARKET GAVE US ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO TAKE ACTION.
房市降溫的跡象，讓我們有足夠的機會採取行動。
1:06:28
DAVID:
SEOUL HOME PRICES AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT GROWTH IS EXCITED TO
GRADUALLY THROW.
DAVID: 首爾房價與家庭負債增長，預計將逐步放緩。
1:06:35
-- EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY GROW.
預計將逐步增長。
1:06:38
THAT THEY WILL DO SOMETHING, BUT THEN TAKE IT MEETING TO
MEETING.
他們會採取行動，但將視每次會議情況而定。
1:06:43
FOR NOW, WE BELIEVE THIS THERE.
目前，我們相信情況如此。
1:06:45
AS WE GET MORE HEADLINES, WE WILL GET YOU TO THEM.
隨著更多頭條新聞出現，我們將為您帶來報導。
1:06:51
YOU CAN CONTINUE TRACKING THIS.
您可以持續追蹤此事。
1:06:57
FOR MORE COMMENTARY, T<L IV>.
如需更多評論，請鎖定 T<L IV>。
1:07:01
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博社。
1:07:04
♪
♪
1:07:52
DAVID: WELCOME BACK.
DAVID: 歡迎回來。
1:07:53
HERE ARE SOME OF THE STORIES WE ARE FOLLOWING AT THIS POINT.
以下是我們目前關注的新聞。
1:07:58
BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ, QUARTERLY SALES PLUNGING IN
CHINA AS BOTH GERMAN AUTOMAKERS FACE WE CONSUMER DEMAND AND A
RACKET -- RAPID SHIFT OF EV'S
BMW 與 Mercedes-Benz 在中國的季度銷量暴跌，兩家德國汽車製造商皆面臨消費者需求疲軟，以及電動車 Rapid Shift 至本土競爭對手的困境。
1:08:09
TO LOCAL RIVALS.
轉向本土競爭對手。
1:08:10
THE STEEPEST DROP IN MORE THAN FOUR YEARS.
這是四年多來的最大跌幅。
1:08:13
MERCEDES DELIVERIES DECLINED 14%.
Mercedes 交付量下降 14%。
1:08:22
NOW, STELLANTIS IS REPLACING
ITS FINANCE CHIEF AS PART OF A BROAD MANAGEMENT OVERHAUL, AS
IT TRIES TO REGAIN INVESTOR TRUST AND STABILIZE ITS
BUSINESS.
KNIGHT JOINED THE CARMAKER LAST
YEAR AND FACED A BACKLASH AFTER A RECENT PROFIT WARNING AN
ADMISSION THE COMPANY'S FULL-YEAR TARGET MARGIN WAS
AMBITIOUS.
AMD SUFFERED ITS BIGGEST DOCTOR
CLIENT IN A MONTH AFTER THE COMPANY UNVEILED NEW AI CHIPS
AT THE EVENT IN SAN FRANCISCO.
AMD 遭遇一個月來最大單日跌幅，此前該公司在舊金山活動中發布了新款 AI 晶片。
1:08:57
INVESTORS HAD BEEN HOPING FOR A
NEW -- NEW INFORMATION ON CUSTOMERS AND FINANCIAL
PERFORMANCE.
投資者一直希望能獲得關於客戶及財務表現的新資訊。
1:09:04
DESPITE THE 4% DROP, IT REMAINS
UP DOUBLE DIGITS USE YEAR.
儘管下跌4%，但年內漲幅仍保持兩位數。
1:09:08
AMD HAS EMERGED AS THE BIGGEST
CONTENDER TO NVIDIA IN THE LUCRATIVE MARKET FOR AI
PROCESSES.
AMD已成為NVIDIA在利潤豐厚的AI處理器市場中的最大競爭對手。
1:09:22
THE CEO LISA SU TRIED TO EO
REASSURE INVESTORS AND SAYS SHE'S OPTIMISTIC ABOUT DEMAND
FOR THE INDUSTRY.
執行長蘇姿丰試圖安撫投資人，並表示她對產業需求持樂觀態度。
1:09:26
>> THIS IS INCREDIBLY FAST
GROWING MARKET.
>> 這是一個成長驚人的市場。
1:09:28
WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT WE'VE
DONE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OR SO, WE HAVE SEEN MI-300 DEMAND
INCREASE FROM WHEN WE STARTED THE YEAR 200 MOST RECENT
EARNINGS, WE WOULD BE OVER $4.5
YVONNE: TAKE A LOOK AT SOME SHARES OF
SEVEN AND I.
由於獲利預測遭下修，這可能是市場有些失望的原因。
1:10:03
THERE WAS A CUT TO THE PROFIT
OUTLOOK, MAY BE WHY THE MARKET IS A BIT DISAPPOINTED.
該公司也宣布將分拆為兩家公司，以抵禦收購威脅。
1:10:06
THERE WAS THAT ANNOUNCEMENT THEY WOULD SPLIT INTO TWO TO
FEND OFF THIS TAKE OVER AS WELL.
快思龍（Fast Retailing）公布亮眼數字，股價上漲近4%。
1:10:13
FAST RETAILING COMING OUT WITH
SOME GOOD NUMBERS, UP NEAR 4%.
伊凡：日本股市目前處於午休時間，稍等一下。
1:10:32
YVONNE:
JAPANESE MARKETS AT THE LUNCH BREAK AND JUST A MOMENT.
日經225指數目前上漲0.06%。
1:10:36
WHEN IT COMES TO THE NIKKEI 225 WE ARE UP .06 PERCENT.
美元兌日圓走弱。
1:10:42
DOLLAR-YEN SEEING WEAKNESS.
匯率已從149的初始低點回升。
1:10:44
WE PARE BACK UP FROM THE
INITIAL WEAKNESS OF 149.
我們原本預期會逼近150的水準。
1:10:46
WE THOUGHT WE APPROACH 150
LEVELS.
大衛：過去幾週，日經指數一直在40,000點大關下方震盪。
1:10:52
DAVID: SEVERAL WEEKS NOW JUST A COUPLE
IT DELL'S AND ARRANGE BELOW THE 40,000 HANDLE.
可能還需要幾週的時間。
1:10:57
IT MIGHT TAKE A FEW MORE WEEKS.
目前看來，本週有望上漲2.5%。
1:11:03
WE ARE POISED OF WEEKLY GAIN OF
2.5% AS THINGS STAND.
以目前情況來看，我們有望實現 2.5% 的週漲幅。
1:11:07
THE BANK OF JAPAN, THE DEPUTY
GOVERNOR SAYS THE CENTRAL BANK WILL STAY ON ITS PATH OF HIKING
INTEREST RATES AND UNWINDING EASING POLICY IF THE ECONOMY
PERFORMS IN LINE WITH
日本銀行副總裁表示，若經濟表現符合預期，央行將維持升息與解除寬鬆政策的路徑。
1:11:18
PROJECTION.
預期。
1:11:19
THAT'S A BIG IF.
這是一個很大的「若」。
1:11:21
THE COMMENTS OF THE FIRST HEARD BY A BOARD MEMBER SINCE THE NEW
PRIME MINISTER WARNED AGAINST ANOTHER RATE HIKE.
這是新任首相警告再次升息以來，理事會成員首度發表的言論。
1:11:29
HE TOLD THE BLOOMBERG EVENT IN TOKYO THAT THE BOJ CAN IMPROVE
THE WAY IT COMMUNICATES AFTER ITS JULY RATE RISE SURPRISED
TRADERS.
他在東京舉行的彭博活動上表示，日本央行在7月升息令交易員措手不及後，可以改善其溝通方式。
1:11:42
>> THERE IS NO SILVER BULLET IN
COMMUNICATION.
>> 溝通沒有萬靈丹。
1:11:44
EACH APPROACH COMES WITH PROS
AND CONS.
每種方法都有優缺點。
1:11:49
I WOULD SAY THERE IS NO
CONSENSUS YET AMONG BOARD MEMBERS TO PURSUE.
我想說的是，理事會成員之間尚未達成要追求的共識。
1:11:53
BUT I CAN TESTIFY THAT THAT -- THAT THERE IS A STRONG WILL
AMONG US TO LEARN FROM WHAT HAPPENED AND CONTINUE TO TRY TO
DO BETTER.
但我可以證明，我們內部有強烈的意願從發生的事情中學習，並持續努力做得更好。
1:12:06
YVONNE:
FORMER BOJ DEPUTY GOVERNOR EMPHASIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE
CENTRAL BANKS DATA-DEPENDENT APPROACH TO POLICY.
伊芳：日本銀行前副總裁強調央行在政策上採取數據依賴方法的重要性。
1:12:14
HE JOINED A PANEL DISCUSSION WITH THE FORMER BOJ EXECUTIVE
DIRECTOR AND J.P.
他與日本銀行前執行董事及摩根大通證券進行了小組討論。
1:12:19
MORGAN SECURITIES.
摩根大通證券。
1:12:26
>> NOW JAPAN IS THAT A CRITICAL
JUNCTURE.
>> 現在的日本正處於關鍵時刻。
1:12:31
WE ARE FACED WITH A CRITICAL
PHASE.
我們正面临關鍵階段。
1:12:36
GOING FROM MOVING AWAY DEFLATIONARY STAGNANT JAPAN TO
THE NEWLY EMERGING INFLATIONARY, GROWING JAPAN.
從擺脫通貨緊縮停滯的日本，轉向新興的通膨增長的日本。
1:12:44
THAT'S WHY YOU ARE HERE.
這就是為什麼你們在這裡。
1:12:47
THAT'S WHY YOU ARE TRYING TO
REPORT WHAT'S GOING ON IN JAPAN.
這就是為什麼你們試圖報導日本正在發生的事情。
1:12:52
THAT IS THE GENERAL POINT.
這是總體的觀點。
1:12:54
I THINK FOR SPECIFIC POINTS ABOUT TOTALITY OR ECONOMIC DATA, I THINK IF YOU ARE GOING
TO ARGUE AGAINST THAT TOTALITY
我認為關於經濟數據的總體性，如果你要反對那種總體性...
1:13:07
THE GOVERNOR OF THE BOJ.
日本銀行總裁。
1:13:09
THE COMMUNICATION IS VERY TRICKY.
溝通非常棘手。
1:13:12
SUPPOSE I SAY THAT I AM JUST LOOKING AT INFLATION
EXPECTATIONS.
假設我說我只關注通膨預期。
1:13:18
THEN THE PEOPLE JUST TAKE THE
MARKET PARTICIPANTS FOCUSED ON EXPECTATION.
那麼人們就會認為市場參與者只專注於預期。
1:13:26
BUT I THINK IT HAD GIVEN US SOME HINTS.
但我認為它還是給了我們一些提示。
1:13:35
WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE
FUTURE OF THE BOJ ACTION.
我們想討論日本央行未來的行動。
1:13:45
MY SENSE IS THAT IT'S CONFIDENT
ABOUT BOJ'S PREDICTIONS, RIGHT OR WRONG, SO THAT'S THE BIG
QUESTION.
我的感覺是，日本央行對其預測很有信心，無論對錯，所以這是一個大問題。
1:13:54
>> THREW HIS COMMENTS HE
MENTIONED THE PASTOR OF THE LEVEL OF THE YEN AND THE
INFLATION OUTLOOK AND TO WHAT THE BOJ IS GOING TO DO.
>> 在他的評論中，他提到了日圓的水準、通膨展望，以及日本央行將會做什麼。
1:14:01
LET'S TRY TO GAUGE WERE PRIVATE MARKETS AND INVESTORS THINK
THAT THE YEN WILL GO.
讓我們試著評估私人市場和投資者認為日圓會走向何方。
1:14:09
WHAT IS JP MORGAN'S VIEW, FOR
EXAMPLE?
舉例來說，摩根大通的觀點是什麼？
1:14:12
QUEX JP MORGAN EXPECTS DOLLAR-YEN.
摩根大通預期美元兌日圓。
1:14:16
SEPTEMBER NEXT YEAR IS 139.
明年9月為139。
1:14:22
IT WILL BE SOMETHING LIKE 138
AND 25.
大約是138.25。
1:14:26
25 IS THE POINT OF ALL MARKET
FOCUS.
25是所有市場關注的焦點。
1:14:30
BY THEN THE FED RATE CUT WILL
BE MOSTLY DONE.
到那時，聯準會的降息將大部分完成。
1:14:37
NOW TODAY IN THE FORWARD CURVE,
THE DOLLAR-YEN PRICING AT THE END OF 2025 IS 142.
現在在遠期曲線中，2025年底的美元兌日圓定價為142。
1:14:46
ON THE DATA SELLOFF ON AUGUST 5 WHEN JAPAN EQUITY MARKETS FACED
CHALLENGE, THE NIKKEI WAS 35,
在8月5日數據拋售、日本股市面臨挑戰時，日經指數是35，
1:14:57
36 AT THE TIME THAT DOLLAR YEN
IN THE MARKET IN 25 IS 135, 134.
36，當時市場對25年的美元兌日圓定價為135、134。
1:15:07
SO TODAY, AS THE MARKET GETS
MUCH BETTER IN TERMS OF THIS SENTIMENT, WE HAD THAT
PREEMPTIVE FIP.
所以今天，隨著市場情緒大幅好轉，我們有了那次先發制人的FIP。
1:15:16
THE BANK OF JAPAN'S
COMMUNICATION SOUNDS VERY DOVISH IN SEPTEMBER.
日本央行9月的溝通聽起來非常鴿派。
1:15:20
THE COMMUNICATION IS TRICKY.
溝通非常棘手。
1:15:23
AND ALSO, WE HAD A GOOD U.S.
此外，美國的就業數據也表現良好。因此，美元兌日圓的走勢至關重要，
1:15:29
PAYROLL. SO DOLLAR-YEN MATTERS AND
LOOKING AT THE EQUITY MARKETS AFTER JULY 31, WE ARE ACTUALLY
COMING BACK TO THE SAME LEVEL.
並觀察 7 月 31 日之後的股票市場，我們實際上
1:15:41
30,000 NIKKEI TODAY CLOSING
LEVEL IS EXACTLY THE VERY CLOSE LEVEL BEFORE THAT JULY MEETING
OF THE BOJ.
日經指數今日收在 30,000 點，
1:15:51
>> WHICH WREAKED HAVE IT TO THE
YEN CARRY TRADES AND THEN WE HAVE THE YEN REALLY SOARING.
>> 這重創了日圓套利交易，導致日圓大幅飆升。
1:15:54
BUT REALLY, LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF THE
CURRENCY FOR THE BOJ BECAUSE, EVEN IN THEIR STATEMENT LAST
TIME THEY SAID THAT IT WOULD
但我們真的需要稍微談談貨幣對日本央行的重要性，因為即使在他們上一次的聲明中也提到，
1:16:03
HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN
BEFORE.
其影響將比以往更大。
1:16:08
>> THERE IS EVERYTHING ABOUT
EXCHANGE RATE.
>> 這一切都與匯率有關。
1:16:20
FROM THE SEPTEMBER MEETING,
AFTER HE SAID THE U.S.
從 9 月的會議開始，
1:16:26
ECONOMY 17 TIMES IN 60 MINUTES
CONFERENCE.
提到美國經濟 17 次之後。
1:16:27
SO, EVERY FOUR MINUTES HE SAID
U.S.
所以，他每四分鐘就說一次
1:16:32
ECONOMY. HE IS TALKING ABOUT JAPAN'S
POLICY.
經濟。他談論的是日本的
1:16:35
IT STILL FOR THE U.S.
卻依然只顧著美國。
1:16:36
ECONOMY. THAT IS HOW MUCH THE BOJ IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE EXTERNAL
DEVELOPMENT WHICH CRITICS -- COULD AFFECT EXCHANGE RATE.
經濟。這顯示日本央行多麼擔憂外部的發展——批評者認為這可能影響匯率。
1:16:48
THE RATE HIKE WAS MOTIVATED BY VERY WEAK YEN.
當時升息的動機是日圓過度疲軟。
1:16:51
90% MOTIVATION WAS WEAK AT THE TIME.
90% 的動機是因為當時的疲軟。
1:16:55
SINCE THEN, AFTER THE TURMOIL, BOJ SUDDENLY CHANGED THE TERM.
自那之後，在市場動盪過後，日本央行突然改變了措辭。
1:17:01
NO WONDER BECAUSE THE YEN WAS 140.
這並不意外，因為當時日圓匯率是 140。
1:17:04
NOW THE YEN IS APPROACHING 150.
現在日圓正逼近 150。
1:17:10
I THINK THAT WOULD PUT BOJ IN A
VERY DIFFICULT POSITION GOING FORWARD.
我認為這將使日本央行在未來陷入非常困難的境地。
1:17:12
IF THE YEN FURTHER WEAKENS 150, 1 HUNDRED 55 AND PEOPLE ARE
STARTING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE WEAKER YEN AND HIGHER PRICES,
THE BOJ WILL BE PROMPTED TO
如果日圓進一步貶至 150、155，且民眾開始抱怨日圓疲軟與物價上漲，
1:17:22
MOVE FORWARD AT THE TIMING OF
THE NEXT MIXED RATE HIKE.
在下次混合利率上調時前進。
1:17:29
DAVID:
VERY BLISSFUL CONVERSATION, I GUESTS, ON THE PANEL FROM OUR
NAVIGATING THE NEW JAPAN EVENT THAT TOOK PLACE IN TOKYO
YESTERDAY.
DAVID:
1:17:38
DAVID: LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS EVENT.
DAVID: 我們來談談這場活動。
1:17:42
WE ARE LOOKING AHEAD TO AN EVENT OUT OF TESLA, THIS
ROBOTAXI UNVEILED LOOKS TO BE DELAYED.
我們正期待特斯拉的一場活動，這場 Robotaxi 揭幕儀式似乎將會延遲。
1:17:48
IT'S EXPECTED TO START ABOUT 30 MINUTES AGO.
預計在 30 分鐘前開始。
1:17:51
OUR COANCHOR ED LOVE WITH US OUT OF L.A.
我們的共同主持人 Ed Love 從洛杉磯加入我們。
1:17:54
TO TALK US THROUGH THIS.
來為我們說明。
1:17:58
WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR THE
BETTER PART OF 30 MINUTES NOW.
我們已經等了快 30 分鐘了。
1:18:00
WHAT'S HAPPENING?
發生什麼事了？
1:18:01
ED:
WAITING FOR THE EVENT FOR 30 MINUTES, I'VE BEEN WAITING ON
ELON MUSK AND A ROBOTAXI FOR 10 YEARS.
ED:
1:18:09
THE EVENT IS DELAYED BECAUSE THERE WAS A MEDICAL EMERGENCY
IN THE AUDIENCE, AND THAT IS ALL ACCORDING TO AN ELON MUSK
POST.
活動延遲是因為觀眾席有人發生醫療緊急狀況，這都是根據 Elon Musk 的貼文。
1:18:17
WE HAVE A LOT OF SOURCES ATTENDING THE EVENT FROM A FEW
MILES FROM WHERE I SAT.
我們有許多消息來源在距離我坐的地方幾英里外參加這場活動。
1:18:23
THE AUDIENCE DOESN'T KNOW
ANYTHING ABOUT IT BECAUSE THEY DON'T HAVE CONNECTIVITY SO THEY
CAN'T CHECK EX OR TWITTER AND THEY HAVEN'T SEEN THE POST THAT
HASN'T BEEN ANNOUNCED.
觀眾對此一無所知，因為他們沒有網路連線，所以無法查看 X 或 Twitter，也還沒看到那篇尚未宣布的貼文。
1:18:33
THE STATE OF PLAY SHOULD START
SOON.
活動應該很快就會開始。
1:18:36
YVONNE: THERE IS SO MUCH AT STAKE HERE.
YVONNE: 這裡面有太多利害關係了。
1:18:38
YOU TALK ABOUT THE STREAM PREMIUM ON THE STOCK.
你談到了股票的串流溢價。
1:18:41
RALLIES OF 70% SINCE THE LOWS THAT WE SAW A FEW MONTHS AGO.
自從幾個月前見到低點以來，已經反彈了 70%。
1:18:46
WHAT DID WE NEED A HERE TODAY TO SEPARATE THIS OF BUZZ TO
SOMETHING OF SUBSTANCE.
我們今天需要什麼來將這股熱潮與實質內容區分開來。
1:18:54
ED: IT'S A GREAT PHRASE.
ED: 這是個很好的說法。
1:18:56
IT'S ABOUT IN ADJUSTMENT OF WHAT YOU THINK TESLA IS.
這關係到調整你對特斯拉的看法。
1:19:04
WE ALL KNOW TESLA BUILDS
ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND ENERGY PRODUCTS AND SELLS THEM TO
CONSUMERS AND WHAT WE EXPECT ELON MUSK TO OUTLINE IS NOT
JUST SHOWING US A ROBOTAXI, BUT
A PLATFORM, AN APP, SOMETHING
ACCUSED OF UBER OR AIR B&B WHERE THERE IS A FLEET OF
ROBOTAXIS, SOME OF WHICH TESLA OWNS AND OPERATES, HENCE THE
AIR B&B BIT, AND YOU GO ON THE
APP AND YOU SEVEN A ROBOTAXI
AND IT PICKS YOU UP AND TAKES YOU ON A RIDE.
應用程式上預約一台自駕計程車，它會來接你並帶你去目的地。
1:19:33
THAT'S BEEN A FUTURE BUSINESS MODEL FOR TESLA.
這一直是特斯拉未來的商業模式。
1:19:35
FOR A LOT OF INVESTORS, THEY DON'T SEE THE JUMP.
對許多投資者來說，他們看不到其中的跳躍性。
1:19:39
FROM WHERE TESLA IS RIGHT NOW WITH THE SOFTWARE SWEEP THAT'S
IN A CONSUMER CAR TO THAT FUTURE BUSINESS MODEL, AND
MAYBE WE WILL FIND OUT MORE
從特斯拉目前搭載在消費性汽車上的軟體優勢，到那個未來的商業模式，也許我們很快就會知曉更多
1:19:51
IMMINENTLY.
內情。
1:19:52
DAVID:
WHY DO YOU THINK THERE IS STILL THAT DIFFERENCE THAT THE
CONCEPTUAL BRIDGE INVESTORS NEED TO BRIDGE BETWEEN WHERE
YOU ARE WITH THE VALUATION AND
大衛：
1:20:03
WHERE ELON MUSK SEES THIS TO BE?
伊隆·馬斯克對此的預期之間搭建概念橋樑？
1:20:05
ED: YOU CANNOT GET RID OF THE BREAD-AND-BUTTER BUSINESS.
艾德：你不能拋棄這項核心業務。
1:20:09
TESLA IS STILL TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE BIGGEST SELLER OF
EVEY'S IN THE WORLD ON ANY GIVEN QUARTER.
特斯拉在任何給定的季度，仍然是全球電動車銷量最高的品牌。
1:20:14
BUT, TO GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE, ELON MUSK HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT, AT LEAST IN RECENT YEARS, ABOUT TALKING
ABOUT THIS.
但是，該給予肯定的地方就要給予肯定，伊隆·馬斯克一直都很堅持，至少在近年來，都在談論這件事。
1:20:25
IT IS A HYBRID MODEL FOR THIS
APP.
這是這個應用程式的混合模式。
1:20:27
THEY HAVE A PURPOSE BUILT ROBOTAXI THAT DOESN'T EXIST
YET, BUT THEY PLAN TO BUILD A.
他們有一款專門打造的自駕計程車，雖然目前還不存在，但他們計劃要打造一台。
1:20:32
THE IDEA HAS BEEN THERE ALL
THESE TESLA'S AROUND THE WORLD.
這個想法一直存在，只要看看遍布全球的這些特斯拉。
1:20:35
EITHER THEY HAVE BEEN ON LEASES
OR YOU OWN THEM AND OWNERS SHOULD HAVE THE CHOICE.
它們可能是租賃的，或者你擁有它們，而車主應該有選擇權。
1:20:39
IF THEY ARE NOT USING THEM, THEN SIGN THEM BACK OVER TO
TESLA.
如果他們不使用車輛，就可以將其交還給特斯拉。
1:20:44
IMAGINE BEING AT YOUR HOUSE,
YOU'RE NOT USING YOUR CAR AND THEN YOU SAY, OFF YOU GO FOR A
DAY TO TESLA AND THERE IT GOES, IT DRIVES ITSELF.
想像一下你在家中，你沒有使用你的車，然後你說，去吧，去為特斯拉工作一天，於是它就自己開走了。
1:20:54
YOU HAVE TO LAUGH, BATS LITERALLY WHAT WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT HERE AND THAT'S CONVINCING THE INSTITUTIONAL
INVESTOR IN THE RETAIL
你不得不笑，這正是我們在這裡談論的內容，而這就是說服機構投資者與散戶
1:21:02
INVESTOR, AND THE RETAIL
INVESTOR BELIEVES IT.
投資者的地方，而散戶投資者相信這一點。
1:21:03
THAT'S A STORY IN THE INVESTOR
BASE.
這是投資者圈的話題。
1:21:08
YVONNE: KEEP US UPDATED ONCE WE HEAR
ANYTHING FROM ELON MUSK.
YVONNE: 一有伊隆·馬斯克的消息，請隨時告訴我們。
1:21:12
ED LUDLOW, BLOOMBERG NEWS,
TECHNOLOGY REPORTER AND COHOST OF BLOOMBERG TECHNOLOGY.
ED LUDLOW，彭博新聞社，科技記者兼《彭博科技》共同主持人。
1:21:15
SPEAKING OF ROBOTAXIS, IN CHINA, THINGS YOU HAVE SEEN ON
THE ROAD.
說到無人駕駛計程車，在中國，你可能已經在路上見過了。
1:21:21
WE ARE HEARING FROM THE EV
MAKER LOOKING TO OFFICIALLY ROLL OUT ITS VERSION IN 2026.
我們收到一家電動車製造商的消息，他們計劃在2026年正式推出自家版本。
1:21:27
IN A WAY OF LONG POST, THE CEO SAYS THE COMPANY IS DEVELOPING
ITS ROBOTAXI AND SAYS THE VEHICLE'S COCKPIT COULD BE
DESIGNED TO IMITATE A PHYSICAL
在一篇長文中，執行長表示公司正在開發其無人駕駛計程車，並說車輛的駕駛艙可以設計來模仿實體場景。
1:21:37
SETTING, SUCH AS A CAFE.
例如咖啡廳。
1:21:40
HAVE SOME COFFEE, YOU KNOW.
喝杯咖啡，你懂的。
1:21:43
DAVID:
WHAT ELSE CAN YOU DO IN A CAR.
DAVID: 在車裡還能做什麼呢。
1:21:46
COMING UP NEXT, CHINA SEES
TENSION IN FOCUS UP THE SUMMIT.
接下來，中國將注意力集中在峰會的緊張局勢上。
1:21:53
WE HEAR FROM BELT AND ROAD
CAPITAL PARTNERS AND HOW TO MAKE SENSE AND ADVOCATE ALL
THESE ONGOING RISKS IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD.
我們將聽取一帶一路資本合夥人的看法，以及如何理解並倡導在該地區所有持續存在的風險。
1:22:04
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博新聞社。
1:22:06
♪
♪
1:22:24
DAVID:
THIS IS TRENDING IN CHINA, A LOOK AT WHAT'S MAKING HEADLINES
AND NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS AND ALSO TRENDING ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
DAVID: 這是中國的熱門話題，關注各大報紙的頭條新聞以及社交媒體上的熱門討論。
1:22:33
GETTING MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS EQUITY SWAP FACILITY OUT OF THE
PBOC AND A FRONT PAGE REPORT AND THE PBOC BACK FINANCIAL
NEWS SAYS IT WILL HAVE MATURITY
A REPORT SAYS THE SCOPE OF
COLLATERAL -- COLLATERAL MAY EXPAND IN THE FUTURE THAT THE
$70 BILLION FACILITY SEEKS TO PROVIDE LIQUIDITY TO INVESTORS
TO BUY STOCKS AND BEGIN
DAYS AFTER HIS BRIEFING THAT
UNDERWHELMED OF THE MARKETS, THE HEAD OF CHINA'S TOP
ECONOMIC PLANNING AGENCY HAS WRITTEN AN OPINION -- WHY AM I
HAVING TROUBLE SPEAKING THIS
幾天後，中國最高經濟規劃機構的負責人發表了一篇評論文章——我為什麼在星期五說話這麼結巴——
1:23:16
FRIDAY, OPINION PIECE FOR THE
PEOPLE'S DAILY.
星期五，《人民日報》的評論文章。
1:23:24
THE CHAIRMAN SAYS THAT THE
GOVERNMENT WILL ADDRESS MARKET CONCERNS IN A TIMELY MATTER AND
ALSO BOOST ECONOMIC MONITORING AND FORECASTING.
主席表示政府將及時處理市場關切，並加強經濟監測和預測。
1:23:34
YVONNE: IT'S ALSO A KEY FOCUS OF STATE
MEDIA.
伊芳：這也是國家媒體的重點。
1:23:37
IT'S IN THE PEOPLE'S DAILY THAT
CARRIES COMMENTS FROM THE PREMIERE ON HOW THE CHINA
COMMUNITY HAS BENEFITED PEOPLE FROM BOTH SIDES.
《人民日報》刊登了總理關於共同體如何造福兩岸人民的評論。
1:23:45
THEY ALSO CALL FOR
UNDERSTANDING WHEN HANDLING REGIONAL CONFLICTS.
他們也呼籲在處理區域衝突時要互相理解。
1:23:57
>> WE UNDERSTAND IT IT'S
INVALUABLE TO A COUNTRY AND WE CAN PROMOTE UNDERSTANDING TO
PROMOTE HARMONY WITH FRIENDLINESS AND KINDNESS WHEN
WE DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES,
DAVID:
THE COMMENTS COME WITH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN FOCUS AT THE
SUMMIT, AND AT THE MEETING, THE PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT CALLED ON
NATIONS TO REDUCE TENSIONS.
大衛：這些評論正值峰會聚焦南海之際，在會議上，菲律賓總統呼籲各國降低緊張局勢。
1:24:27
HE SAYS THE PHILIPPINES
CONTINUES TO BE SUBJECTED TO HARASSMENT AND INTIMIDATION
FROM CHINESE AND FILIPINO SHIPS CLASS SEVERAL TIMES IN THAT
PART OF THE WORLD EARLIER THIS
他說菲律賓持續受到中國和菲律賓船隻的騷擾和恐嚇，今年稍早在該地區發生了數次。
1:24:36
YEAR. AND JUST LAST WEEK VIETNAM
ACCUSED CHINESE SAILORS OF AN ATTACK ON ONE OF ITS FISHING
VESSELS THAT INJURED 10 PEOPLE.
就在上週，越南指控中國船員襲擊其一艘漁船，造成10人受傷。
1:24:47
YVONNE CALLING JOINING US AS
THE GEOPOLITICAL RISK ANALYST AND POLICY ADVISOR AT BELT AND
ROAD CAPITAL PARTNERS.
伊芳：今天加入我們的是「一帶一路資本合夥」的地緣政治風險分析師兼政策顧問。
1:24:53
LET'S START ON THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA.
我們先從南海談起。
1:24:57
IT SEEMS LIKE YOU ARE HEARING
HIM SAYING IT NEEDS TO BE MORE UNDERSTANDING RIGHT NOW.
聽起來你似乎認為他說現在需要更多的理解。
1:25:01
DO YOU SEE SOME SORT OF OFFRAMP TO THESE TENSIONS THAT CONTINUE
TO ESCALATE, OR ARE WE ACTUALLY SEEING ARMED CONFLICT WITH
CHINA NOW?
你是否看到這些持續升級的緊張局勢有緩解的空間，或者我們現在實際上正看到與中國發生武裝衝突？
1:25:15
>> I DON'T THINK THERE'S AN
IMMINENT ARMED CONFLICT.
>> 我認為不會立即發生武裝衝突。
1:25:17
THERE'S NO CONFLICT AT ALL IN
THE PACIFIC AT THE MOMENT.
目前太平洋完全沒有衝突。
1:25:22
AND EVERYBODY WOULD LIKE IT TO
STAY THAT WAY, ESPECIALLY IN ASIA.
每個人都希望保持這種狀態，尤其是在亞洲。
1:25:25
THIS WILL BE THE CENTRAL FOCUS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, THE
PARTNERSHIP WITH CHINA AND TRYING TO BUILD A CONSENSUS
AROUND MYANMAR, AROUND THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS IN THE U.S.
以及這將如何與加薩和烏克蘭的局勢配合。
1:25:39
AND HOW THAT WILL WORK WITH GAZA AND UKRAINE.
這是他們今天允許的一大議程。
1:25:42
IT'S A BIG AGENDA FOR THEM ALLOWING IT TODAY.
這是他們今天允許的一大議程。
1:25:50
DAVID: I WONDER HOW YOU ARE ABLE TO
SAY THERE IS NO CONFLICT, THE SHIPS ARE RAMMING EACH OTHER.
DAVID: 我很好奇你怎麼能說沒有衝突，船隻都在互相碰撞了。
1:25:56
>> WE DON'T CALL THAT CONFLICT.
>> 我們不稱之為衝突。
1:26:04
BASICALLY, THEY ARE JUST TRYING
TO MAKE SOME SPACE FOR EACH OTHER, BUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IS
THE PROBLEM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS THAT THE AREA THAT THEY
基本上，他們只是試圖為彼此騰出一些空間，但問題在於南海的爭議海域
1:26:15
ARE TALKING ABOUT IS OUTSIDE
PHILIPPINE EASY.
他們所談論的區域是在菲律賓的專屬經濟區之外。
1:26:16
IT'S NOT COVERED BY THE
AMERICAN DEFENSE TREATY, SO THAT'S WHAT THEY ARE TRYING TO
PUSH ON BECAUSE THEY SEE ITS INTERNATIONAL CLEAR WATERS KIND
OF THING, AND CHINA IS TO
它不在美國的防禦條約涵蓋範圍內，所以他們試圖推動這一點，
1:26:28
SPENDING THEIR TIME AND EFFORTS
TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO SO THE PHILIPPINES DON'T CHANGE IT.
花費時間和精力維持現狀，以免菲律賓改變它。
1:26:33
THE WAY THAT THAT CAN DEVELOP AT THE MEETING TODAY AND
TOMORROW, SO FORTH YESTERDAY, I'M NOT SURE.
這種情況在今天和明天的會議上會如何發展，昨天我不確定。
1:26:40
DAVID:
WASN'T THERE RULING, IN INTERNATIONAL RULING THAT THIS
PART DOES FALL WITHIN THAT AREA OF ECONOMIC RESPONSIBILITY
MAYBE.
DAVID: 難道沒有國際裁決認定這部分確實屬於經濟責任區嗎？
1:26:55
>> ONLY IF THEY HAVE THE CLAIM
ON THE ISLANDS.
>> 只有在他們對這些島嶼擁有主權聲索的情況下才算。
1:26:58
YOU HAVE TO HAVE THAT CLAIM,
YOU HAVE TO HAVE THAT RECOGNIZE FIRST AND THAT HAS NOT HAPPEN.
你必須先提出那個聲索，並且必須先獲得承認，但這還沒有發生。
1:27:04
IT'S NOT RECOGNIZED.
它沒有被承認。
1:27:06
IN FACT, THE U.S.
事實上，美國的
1:27:06
DIPLOMATIC PAPERS CLEARLY STATE THAT IT'S NOT COVERED IN THE
DEFENSE TREATY BECAUSE SOVEREIGNTY IS NOT CLEAR.
外交文件明確指出，它不在防禦條約的涵蓋範圍內，因為主權歸屬不明。
1:27:12
SO THE AMERICANS CAN INCLUDE IT IN THE TREATY.
所以美國人無法將其納入條約。
1:27:14
THAT IS TRUE ALSO OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE EAST ASIA C.
這在東亞的一些島嶼上也是如此。
1:27:23
THIS IS AN ONGOING THEME, THIS
WILL BE TALKED ABOUT.
這是一個持續存在的議題，將會被討論。
1:27:25
BLINKEN WILL TRY TO MAKE IT
APPEAR THAT IT'S REALLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM THAT THEY HAVE,
IT'S NOT.
布林肯會試圖讓這看起來像是他們面臨的最大問題，但其實不是。
1:27:34
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS GOING TO
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE, THE U.S.
最大的問題將是如何在北半球（美國和歐洲陷入困境）的情況下維持經濟增長。
1:27:40
AND THE EUROPEAN SUCH TROUBLE,
GERMANY IS IN RECESSION.
德國正處於衰退中。
1:27:41
THE U.S. IS VERY CLOSE TO RECESSION, I THINK, AND THE ELECTION IS
COMING UP.
我認為美國也非常接近衰退，而且選舉即將到來。
1:27:47
VERY DIFFICULT SITUATION.
情況非常困難。
1:27:48
THE RUSSIANS ARE WINNING IN UKRAINE.
俄羅斯人在烏克蘭戰場上獲勝。
1:27:50
THAT WILL BE A BIG SHOT.
這將是一個重大打擊。
1:27:52
THAT'S WHAT THEY ARE ALL
DEALING WITH TODAY.
這就是他們今天都在處理的事情。
1:27:56
BUT THE BIG ONE WAS THE TIES OF
AND OUTS OF AN INFORMAL APPROACH FOR MYANMAR, THAT
WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL, SO THAT'S THE SORT OF POLITICAL
SIDE.
但最重要的是緬甸非正式接觸的細節，這將非常有幫助，所以這是政治層面的部分。
1:28:06
BUT I THINK THE BUSINESS, COMMERCIAL SIDE, DIGITAL,
CROSS-BORDER TRANSACTION, STANDARDIZATION'S, DIGITAL
CURRENCIES, I THINK THIS IS ALL
但我認為商業方面，數位化、跨境交易、標準化、數位貨幣，我認為這些都
1:28:12
GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT.
將非常重要。
1:28:17
YVONNE: RUSSIA IS WINNING AND UKRAINE.
伊芳：俄羅斯正在贏得戰爭，烏克蘭。
1:28:21
THAT CERTAINLY YOUR OPINION.
這肯定是您的看法。
1:28:22
WE WILL GET TO SOMETHING ELSE.
我們來談談其他事情。
1:28:24
YOU MENTIONED ABOUT THE U.S.
您提到了美國。
1:28:26
INTEREST. GIVEN ALL THESE
DISTRACTIONS THAT YOU TALK ABOUT, THE STATE OF THE
ECONOMY, WARS AND WHATNOT.
利益。鑑於您談到的所有這些干擾因素、經濟狀況、戰爭等等。
1:28:34
HOW MUCH INTEREST AS THE U.S.
美國對
1:28:36
HAVE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD, AND
WHAT ROLE DO YOU THINK THEY HAVE IN TERMS OF EASING THESE
REGIONAL TENSIONS?
南中國海及世界這一部分有多少興趣？您認為他們在緩解這些
1:28:44
>> THE UNITED STATES HAS NOT
BEEN EASING THESE TENSIONS, THAT'S FOR SURE.
>> 美國並沒有
1:28:50
I THINK IT CAN BE DONE AND THERE'S A REAL INTEREST IN THE
RUN-UP TO THE ELECTIONS TO KIND OF KEEP IT SMOOTH.
緩解這些緊張局勢，這是肯定的。
1:28:58
AND I THINK WE WILL SEE A
POSITIVE SPIN OUT OF THE PHILIPPINES.
我認為這是可以做到的，而且在選舉前夕確實有興趣讓局勢保持平穩。
1:29:07
AND OBVIOUSLY HE IS REALLY FOCUSING ON THE IDEA OF THE
NEIGHBORLINESS.
我們將會看到菲律賓傳出
1:29:11
REALLY HARD TO SAY.
顯然他真的專注於睦鄰友好的理念。
1:29:12
THAT'S BEEN THE CHINESE POLICY FOR 40 YEARS.
這真的很難說。
1:29:14
THAT HASN'T CHANGED, SO THIS IS A CONSTANT.
這點未曾改變，因此這是一個常數。
1:29:17
WHAT IS CHANGING IS THE APPROACH OF OTHER COUNTRIES
AROUND THE WORLD.
正在改變的是世界其他國家的做法。
1:29:21
CHINA HAS BEEN CONSTANT IN ITS
APPROACH.
中國的做法始終如一。
1:29:26
WE KNOW THAT THAT'S THE LARGEST
TRADING PARTNERSHIP IN THE WORLD.
我們知道那是世界上最大的貿易夥伴關係。
1:29:28
IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO GROW, AVERAGE GROWTH IN THE AREA IS
AROUND 5%, AND WE ARE LOOKING AT MINUS PERCENT IN EUROPE AND
THE U.S.
它將持續增長，該地區的平均增長率約為 5%，而我們在歐洲和美國看到的則是負成長。
1:29:40
IS REALLY HOVERING AT ZERO
BECAUSE IF YOU COUNT INFLATION.
實際上是徘徊在零附近，因為如果你把通貨膨脹算進去的話。
1:29:45
SO IF THEY ARE ABLE TO HOLD
THAT TOGETHER, ASIA WILL BE THE CENTER OF GROWTH.
所以如果他們能夠維持這種局面，亞洲將成為增長的中心。
1:29:49
INDIA HAS A BIGGER ROLE.
印度扮演著更重要的角色。
1:29:51
I THINK WE COULD SEE THERE'S
GOING TO BE A REAL CONCENTRATION ON JUST TRYING TO
KEEP EVERYTHING CALM UNTIL THE ELECTIONS ARE OVER.
我認為我們可以看到，在選舉結束之前，重點將會放在努力維持一切平穩。
1:29:57
DAVID:
LET'S HOPE THAT REMAINS THE CASE.
大衛：希望情況依舊如此。
1:30:00
THANK YOU.
謝謝。
1:30:01
GEOPOLITICAL RISK ANALYST AND POLICY ADVISOR BELT AND ROAD
CAPITAL PARTNERS.
地緣政治風險分析師兼政策顧問，一帶一路資本合夥公司。
1:30:09
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND AHEAD.
預祝您週末愉快。
1:30:13
CHINA'S PREMIER HAS -- AS
TENSIONS SIMMER OVER THE MURDER OF A JAPANESE SCHOOL BOARD.
中國總理表示——在一名日本學校董事會成員遇害事件引發緊張局勢之際。
1:30:23
HE WAS SPEAKING AFTER MEETING
AT -- MEETING HIM AT THE SUMMIT.
他在峰場會晤後發表談話。
1:30:27
HE SAID RELATIONS ARE AT A
CRITICAL STAGE OF IMPROVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT.
他表示，兩國關係正處於改善和發展的關鍵階段。
1:30:33
YVONNE: GLOBAL GOODS TRADE WILL GROW
LESS THAN INITIALLY FORECAST NEXT YEAR IT DO TO GEOPOLITICAL
RISKS AND POLICY UNCERTAINTY.
伊芳：由於地緣政治風險和政策不確定性，明年全球貨物貿易增長將低於最初的預測。
1:30:41
THEY NOW SEE TRADE GROWING BY
3%.
他們現在預計貿易將增長 3%。
1:30:43
THAT'S LESS OF THE 3.3% SEEN FIVE MONTHS AGO.
這低於五個月前預測的 3.3%。
1:30:47
HE SAYS THAT RISK A TRADE OUTLOOK ARE NOW FIRMLY ON THE
DOWNSIDE.
他表示，貿易前景的風險現在已明確轉向下行。
1:30:50
WE'VE GOT PLENTY MORE AHEAD.
前方還有更多精彩內容。
1:30:57
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博社。
1:31:09
YVONNE: IT'S THESE SAD WEEK.
伊芳：這週令人難過。
1:31:16
WE LOST ANOTHER ONE OF THE
TENNIS WORLD.
網球界又失去了一位
1:31:19
ROUGHLY ON THE DOW RETIREMENT
YESTERDAY AND HE LEAVES THE SPORT AND AS A SECOND HIGHEST
EARNER OF CAREER PRIZE MONEY.
費德勒昨天大致宣佈退休，
1:31:25
OVER $130 MILLION.
超過 1 億 3 千萬美元。
1:31:25
I THINK IT'S 22 GRAND SLAMS.
我想是 22 座大滿貫。
1:31:27
WHAT A LEGEND.
真是個傳奇。
1:31:29
DAVID:
NEARLY 100 SINGLES TITLES.
大衛：
1:31:36
NEARLY 100, SO IT'S AROUND THE
GENERAL REGION.
將近 100，所以大概在
1:31:37
SO I KNOW WE TALK ABOUT THE FED
A LOT ON THE SHOW.
我知道我們在節目上常討論 The Fed。
1:31:43
NOT THE CENTRAL BANK.
不是中央銀行。
1:31:43
IN CASE YOU DID NOT GET THAT JOKE.
怕你們聽不懂這個笑話。
1:31:44
THEY HAVE STOPPED TAKING THIS YEAR.
他們今年已經停止出賽了。
1:31:48
BUT YES, AS YOU CAN SEE, HE HAS DONE WELL FOR HIMSELF.
但沒錯，如你所見，他成就斐然。
1:31:54
I WAS HAVING A CONVERSATION WITH A COLLEAGUE ABOUT THIS,
WHAT IS HE GOING TO DO NOW, IS HE GOING TO GET BORED?
我剛和同事聊到這件事，
1:32:01
HE WAS KNOWN TO HAVE A FIERCE COMPETITIVE SPIRIT.
眾所皆知他競爭心極強。
1:32:08
YVONNE: I LOVE THAT FRIENDSHIP THAT HE
HAS.
伊芳：我很喜歡他
1:32:12
I THINK HE COMMENTED SAYING WHAT A CAREER, I ALWAYS HOPED
THIS DAY WOULD NEVER COME, BUT YES, THOSE TWO PROBABLY
COULDN'T ENJOY IT RETIREMENT
我想他有留言說這職業生涯多麼精彩，我總希望
1:32:21
TOGETHER I THINK.
我想是這樣。
1:32:24
ANYWAYS. DAVID: WHAT'S THE OTHER SPORT I KEEP
SEEING NOW?
總之。大衛：我最近常看到的另一項運動是什麼？
1:32:30
YVONNE: PICKLEBALL.
伊凡：匹克球。
1:32:31
DAVID:
MAYBE THEY CAN PICK UP THERE, THE KING OF CLAY.
大衛：也許他們可以在那裡接棒，成為紅土之王。
1:32:34
VERY QUICKLY BACK TO MARKETS, WE HAD A COUPLE OF THINGS
TODAY, YOU HAVE THE INFLATION REPORT IN THE U.S., THAT'S SORT
OF THE BACKDROP FOR WHAT'S
快速回到市場，我們今天有幾件大事，美國有通膨報告，這大致是造成
1:32:46
CAUSING THESE CLOUDS OF THE
MARKETS.
這些籠罩市場烏雲的背景。
1:32:48
THE CHINA STORY.
中國的故事。
1:32:50
THE ONGOING BANK OF KOREA
BRIEFING, WHICH SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP.
韓國央行正在進行的簡報，應該即將結束。
1:32:52
CERTAINLY THE CHANGE IN TONE.
肯定的是語氣的轉變。
1:32:55
THE CUT, IT'S A HAWKISH CUT,
AND IT SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BANK OF KOREA IS VERY MUCH ON
BOARD WITH THAT DESCRIPTION AS WELL.
這次降息，是一次鷹派降息，而韓國央行似乎也非常認同這樣的描述。
1:33:04
IT WAS IN A UNANIMOUS DECISION.
這是一次一致通過的決定。
1:33:07
ONE MEMBER WAS NOT TRYING TO
CUT INTEREST RATES AND THERE'S A BIG ONE TOMORROW TAKING PLACE
IN CHINA.
有一位委員並未試圖降息，而明天中國將有一場重大會議。
1:33:12
YVONNE: ALL EYES ON THAT AND WE GET ANY
CLEAR CONVICTION IN THESE MARKETS.
伊凡：所有目光都聚焦在那裡，我們將在這些市場中獲得明確的信念。
1:33:18
THERE YOU GO, THIS TEST EVENT SHOULD BE STARTING SOON.
看吧，這場測試賽事應該很快就要開始了。
1:33:20
ELON MUSK.
伊隆・馬斯克。
1:33:21
WE WILL GET YOU MORE DETAILS
COMING UP.
我們稍後將為您帶來更多細節。
1:33:29
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
這是彭博。
China Stocks Drop Ahead of Finance Ministry Briefing | Bloomberg: The China Show 10/11/2024
