New Street看好SpaceX持股「具吸引力」　EchoStar估值調整至161美元

New Street Research分析師David Barden近期更新了對EchoStar（SATS）的估值模型，將SpaceX將於IPO後持有的精確股份數量與 IPO首日收盤價納入計算，評估其對EchoStar的價值。

根據Barden的分析，目前EchoStar的股價在市場合價約為159美元，對應SpaceX持股的價值僅約每股86美元，已低於其近期收盤價46%。然而，若以研究公司對SpaceX的 $165價格目標，EchoStar的估值可提升至每股161美元，顯示在當前價格下擁有SpaceX股份的投資具備「具吸引力」的潛在回報。

Investors widely regard EchoStar as a proxy for holding shares of the Elon Musk‑led company, a perception that underpins the analyst's bullish stance.

SATS stock closed up 3% on Monday, while SpaceX shares closed up another 20%.

The firm’s valuation follows a major spectrum transaction announced in September 2025, under which EchoStar agreed to sell certain spectrum licenses to SpaceX for approximately $17 billion, structured as up to $8.5 billion in cash and up to $8.5 billion in SpaceX Class A common stock. In November 2025 the parties amended the agreement to add additional spectrum, raising total consideration to roughly $19.6 billion, with up to $11.1 billion payable in SpaceX stock priced at $212 per share. Barron’s estimates that this translates to roughly 52 million SpaceX shares for EchoStar.

Meanwhile, EchoStar’s traditional satellite and pay‑TV businesses continue to face headwinds. In the first quarter of 2026 the company lost about 366,000 net pay‑TV subscribers, ending the period with 6.63 million total subscribers. Pay‑TV revenue declined 10% year‑over‑year. Its HughesNet satellite broadband unit also saw pressure from low‑Earth‑orbit competitors such as Starlink, losing 58,000 subscribers during the quarter. Overall revenue fell 5.2% to $3.67 billion, though the net loss narrowed to $146.9 million from $202.7 million.

The analysis highlights that while EchoStar’s core businesses are under strain, the upside from its SpaceX stake offers a compelling narrative for investors seeking exposure to the SpaceX ecosystem.