最熱的股票在今日市場合際上正呈現上漲。過往記錄顯示，這類大漲股並未像 dot‑com 時代那樣急速膨脹。

在 S&P 1500 (^SPSUPX) 中，標的平均前 10% 的全年度回報約 240%，對於幾乎任何標準皆屬驚人，仍僅是 1999 年同類平均 606% 的一半。

2025 年 S&P 1500 標的表現最佳 10 只的平均全年度回報 1996‑2025 年 · Yahoo Finance 分析

S&P 1500 是涵蓋美國大型、中期及小型股的廣義市場指數，結合 S&P 500 (^GSPC)、S&P MidCap 400 (^MID) 與 S&P SmallCap 600。S&P Dow Jones Indices 認為該指數約涵蓋全美市值的 90%。

此舉為投資者除了關注藍籌外，還能提供一個更廣泛的市場熱度檢測工具。








The first chart shows how easy it is to mistake big winners for a bubble. Since 1996, the average top-10 stock in the S&P 1500 has gained about 220% in a full calendar year. That means triple-digit leaders are not automatically a bubble signal. In a 1,500-stock universe, something is almost always going vertical somewhere.

The bar for true dot-com heat is much higher.

That shows up in the second chart, which strips the question down to the gap between winners and losers. In 2025, the average top 10% stock beat the average bottom 10% stock by about 125 points.

Annual gap between the average top 10% and bottom 10% S&P 1500 stocks, 1996–2025. · Yahoo Finance analysis

Wide, yes. Wild, no. That was below the 30-year average and roughly half the late-1990s peak.

None of this lets today's market off the hook. AI has carried a large share of the latest rally, and the market looks much thinner when those winners are stripped out, as recent breadth work looking under the market's hood has shown.

But the bubble call gets harder when the ruler is history, not vibes.

The bar is not "big winners." It is a market where winners and losers split like 1999.

This one has not cleared it.

Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.

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