Trader Mike 的深度觀點
市場策略師
實戰派交易員,專注於美股大盤、價格行為與資金流向。不談空泛理論,只看圖表與籌碼。
美國股市在週一收盤走低,因應週末一連串事件重新引發美國與伊朗的緊張局勢,令和平談判面臨風險,投資人預期未來将出現更多不確定性。
科技股指數主導下跌,納斯達克綜合指數(^IXIC)下跌約 0.3%;標準普爾 500 指數(^GSPC)跌 0.2%;道瓷工業平均指數(^DJI)則略跌 0.1%。
緊張局勢的急速升級源於美國海軍捕獲一艘伊朗船隻,總統特朗普表示此舉「在船艙引擎室開了一個洞」;同時,伊朗在伊朗ー伊拉克停火協議承諾下,對船隻開火並中斷進入霍爾木茲海峽的交通,稱美國已違反停火協議。
油價在周一上漲,但仍低於關鍵的 100 美元關口。美國西德克拉巴斯原油期貨(CL=F)漲 5.2%,報價略高於 86 美元;全球基準布倫特原油(BZ=F)上漲 5.1%,報價突破 95 美元。
展望本週,投資者將關注一系列重要公司收益,其中包括特斯拉(TSLA)、英特爾(INTC)以及聯合航空(UAL)等,這將是市場在創下歷史高點、同時面對升級地緣政治風險期間的下一個測試。
黃金(GC=F)在周一下跌 1%,金價跌至約 4,820 美元/盎司,銀(SI=F)亦跌約 2%。
該走勢反映出因油價上升可能帶來的通膨壓力,讓中央銀行延後降息的可能性增加,較高的利率通常會對無收益的貴金屬形成壓力。
至于科技股,納斯達克指數的 13 天連續上漲或許将於收盤時告終,除非指數在當天收紅。utsche Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)已連續 14 天上漲,為自 2014 年六月以來最長的漲幅;而科技選擇性 SPDR 信託(XLK)則可能在此期間結束其 13 天的漲勢。
與此同時,軟體股亦表現強勁,iShares 專業軟體 ETF(IGV)上漲超過 1%,預計將延長其 6 天連續上漲的紀錄。
Meta(META)作為「七巨頭」中自三月低點以來表現最佳的股票,卻在當天下跌超過 2%,成為當天下跌最多的 Magnificent Seven 成分股。自三月 27 日的低點以來,Meta 已上漲 25%,優於其他六檔股票。其跌勢發生在跌破 690–700 美元的關鍵技術區間,這區間包括 200 日均線、先前的支撐區以及自 8 月高點至 3 月低點的 61.8% 回檔位。
AST SpaceMobile(ASTS)股價在周一暴跌至 9% 以下,原因是其 BlueBird 7 衛星在 Blue Origin 主導的新 Glenn 火箭發射後未能進入預定軌道。公司聲明指出,該衛星的軌道高度低於維持運作所需的標準。
Tesla(TSLA)將於週三收盤後公布季度財報,它也是「七巨頭」中表現最弱的成員,自三月 30 低點僅上漲 11%,年內跌幅達 12%,僅次於微軟(MSFT)。截止目前,Tesla 也在當天表現最差的 Magnificent Seven 股票之一,僅次於苹果(AAPL),后者是當天唯一收漲的成員。
技術圖表顯示,TSLA 在 2025 年第二季與第三季曾在 200 日均線周圍呈現橫向整理,隨後在秋季形成上漲通道,接著在秋季末期衝擊新高但出現了虛假突破,最後在一條長期下降趨勢線上跌破後於上週重新站上。
本週,Tesla 的財報將是市場合之關鍵測試,作為「七巨頭」首家報告業績的公司。
語於其他市場動態:
沙利耶爾(Sandisk)加入 Nasdaq 100(^NDX)後,股價當天略跌,然而其年內已上漲 287%,取代公司軟體公司 Atlassian(TEAM)进入指數。其與記憶體晶片公司微星半導體(MU)的漲幅被譯為類似泡沫,可能面臨回檔風險。
Minutes later, Sandisk's addition to the Nasdaq 100 marks a notable shift in the index composition, reflecting the strong performance of memory‑chip names.
The addition of Sandisk replaces software company Atlassian (TEAM) in the benchmark tech index.
On the earnings front, Cisco (CSCO) and HP (HPQ) are also slated to report later this week, adding to the volume of data investors will parse.
Investors are also watching Treasury yields, which edged higher on Monday as US‑Iran tensions resurfaced over the weekend.
The 10‑year yield (^TNX) rose 2 basis points to 4.26%, while the 30‑year yield (^TYX) edged up to 4.89%.
Higher yields come amid concerns that inflated oil prices could keep inflation elevated, potentially delaying rate cuts by central banks.
The upcoming confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh in the Senate added pressure on bond markets, as analysts speculated on the future of Federal Reserve leadership.
In the semiconductor space, the sector continues its record‑breaking rally.
The morning’s new‑highs list is essentially a chip map, with the semiconductor index and many individual chip makers hitting fresh intraday records.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is now tracking 14 straight days of gains, its longest win streak since a 15‑day run in June 2014, and is on pace for its best month ever, up about 25%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (^SOX) is also on track for its best month since February 2000, when it rose roughly 50%.
Intraday record highs include: Electronic Equipment, Computer Hardware, Electronic & Electrical, Heavy Construction sectors; ETFs such as SOXX and SPHB; consumer discretionary stocks like eBay (EBAY) and Ross Stores (ROST); industrial stocks such as Cummins (CMI), GE Vernova (GEV), Ichor (ICHR), Jabil (JBL), MKS Instruments (MKSI), Quanta Services (PWR); real‑estate names Digital Realty (DLR) and Equinix (EQIX); and technology stocks including Analog Devices (ADI), AMD, Arista Networks (ANET), ASE Technology (ASX), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Dell (DELL), FormFactor (FORM), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), KLA (KLAC), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Marvell (MRVL), MACOM (MTSI), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), Nova (NVMI), ONTO Innovation (ONTO), Photronics (PLAB), SiTime (SITM), Teradyne (TER), Texas Instruments (TXN), Ultra Clean (UCTT), Western Digital (WDC).
Overall, the market's direction this week will be shaped by a confluence of geopolitical tension, oil price movements, and a packed earnings calendar.
The US stock market opened slightly lower on Monday after a bevy of weekend headlines from the Middle East threw hopes for peace into disarray.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) traded down by roughly 0.2% each, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fluctuated around the flat line by less than 0.1%.
In the oil market, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL=F) gained 4.8% to trade around $86.50, while Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 4.2% to near $94.
Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), and United Airlines (UAL) will report earnings this week, among a basket of other names.
Treasury yields inched higher on Monday as US‑Iran tensions ratcheted back up again over the weekend and investors awaited Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing in the Senate.
The 10‑year yield (^TNX) drifted 2 basis points higher to 4.26%, while the longer‑dated 30‑year yield (^TYX) rose marginally to 4.89%.
Treasurys fell after traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returned to a standstill over the weekend, raising inflation concerns yet again.
Also weighing on bonds was the upcoming confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh.
Sandisk (SNDK) stock joined the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) after shares surged 287% year to date. The addition of Sandisk replaces software company Atlassian (TEAM) in the benchmark tech index.
But the stock fell slightly on Monday morning. As my colleague Brian Sozzi pointed out this morning, the rise in shares of Sandisk and peer memory chip maker Micron (MU) has started to look bubble‑like and could be ripe for a pullback.
Shares of psychedelic drug developers rose in premarket trading after President Trump signed an executive order directing health regulators to speed up reviews of psychedelic drugs to treat serious mental illness.
Shares of AtaiBeckley (ATAI) jumped 30% before the bell, while Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) rose 14%, and Compass Pathways (CMPS) climbed 24%. GH Research (GHRS) gained 17%, Enveric BioSciences (ENVB) shot up roughly 80%, and US‑listed shares of Cybin (HELP) were up about 14%.
Google (GOOG, GOOGL) is in talks with Marvell (MRVL) to develop two new versions of its AI chips, The Information reported.
One will be a new tensor processing unit (TSU) tailored to running AI workloads, per the report. The other will be a memory processing unit designed to work with those TSUs, and the partners are aiming to finish its design as soon as next year.
Google has been positioning its TPU as a rival to Nvidia’s (NVDA) dominant GPUs amid a Big Tech data center buildout.
Shares of Marvell jumped over 8% in premarket on the report.
Eli Lilly (LLY) will acquire the biotechnology firm Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7 billion, the firms announced on Monday, giving Eli Lilly access to Kelonia’s gene therapies and other forms of cancer treatments.
Eli Lilly shares lost roughly 0.4% on the news, after earlier gains on a report of a potential deal.
Under the terms of the deal, shareholders in the privately held Kelonia will receive an up‑front cash payment of $3.25 billion, with additional payouts dependent on certain clinical and commercial milestones.
The acquisition will strengthen Eli Lilly’s existing cancer treatments portfolio, including its Jaypirca therapy and the breast cancer drug Verzenio, Reuters reported.
The announcement on Monday morning caps off speculation that an acquisition was imminent. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier Monday morning that Eli Lilly could acquire Kelonia for more than $2 billion.
Eli Lilly (LLY) is in advanced talks to acquire biotech firm Kelonia Therapeutics for more than $2 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported.
A deal could be agreed as soon as Monday, per WSJ sources, and could include additional payments if the blood‑cancer biotech reaches key milestones, sources told the WSJ.
The news follows a WSJ report that a deal was imminent.
Shareholders of Kelonia will receive $3.25 billion upfront, with further payments tied to milestones.
The deal underscores Eli Lilly’s strategy to bolster its oncology pipeline.
Space‑based Internet provider AST SpaceMobile’s (ASTS) stock plummeted as much as 9% on Monday.
The Midland, Texas‑based company’s BlueBird 7 satellite, launched by Blue Origin’s flagship New Glenn rocket over the weekend, failed to align in proper orbit.
AST said in a statement during the mission that BlueBird 7 was placed into a “lower than planned” orbit at an altitude that was too low to sustain operations.
Read more here.
Meta (META) is the top “Magnificent Seven” stock off March lows and the worst Magnificent Seven stock today — at the same time.
Since its March 27 low, Meta is up 25%, the best performance among the Magnificent Seven group. But today it's down more than 2%, leading the Mag 7 to the downside.
The stock is coming off an 11‑day win streak that has carried it right back into its most important overhead zone.
That zone is $690 to $700, where the 200‑day moving average sits, as well as a price shelf that was the stock’s prior support. And $690 marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the August all‑time high to the March 27 low — the last major technical barrier the bears need to defend before the bulls take control.
It's not surprising Meta has stalled here.
A vertical rally rarely powers through the highest level on the chart on the first try.
The question now is what kind of pause this is.
The most bullish outcome would be a consolidation near the highs, gathering strength for a breakout.
The bearish case sends the stock back to test support just under $600.
Some version of chop in between is probably the base case.
The wall is the wall. Meta either clears it, or it doesn't.
Space‑based Internet provider Charlie Ergen made a big bet on spectrum and eventually found a buyer in SpaceX (SPAX.PVT).
Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian reports:
Read more here.
Google (GOOG, GOOGL) is in talks with Marvell (MRVL) to develop two new versions of its AI chips, The Information reported.
One will be a new tensor processing unit (TSU) tailored to running AI workloads, per the report. The other will be a memory processing unit designed to work with those TSUs, and the partners are aiming to finish its design as soon as next year.
Google has been positioning its TPU as a rival to Nvidia’s (NVDA) dominant GPUs amid a Big Tech data center buildout.
Shares of Marvell jumped over 8% in premarket on the report.
Eli Lilly (LLY) is in advanced talks to acquire biotech firm Kelonia Therapeutics for more than $2 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported.
A deal could be agreed as soon as Monday, per WSJ sources, and could include additional payments if the blood‑cancer biotech reaches key milestones, sources told the WSJ.
Shares of the US drugmaker rose over 2% in premarket following the report on Sunday.
Reuters reports:
Read more here.
Bloomberg reports:
Read more here.
Bloomberg reports:
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