Sean Williams, The Motley Fool

Sat, April 11, 2026 at 3:26 AM CDT



















From a purely statistical standpoint, investors have prospered under President Donald Trump. During his first, non-consecutive term (Jan. 20, 2017 – Jan. 20, 2021), the widely followed Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-stock-inspired Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) gained 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively.



The first year of Trump's second term was much of the same, with all three major stock indexes rallying by double digits.

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President Trump delivering the State of the Union address. Image source: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok.

But the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have hit a snag over the last six weeks. Both the Dow and Nasdaq briefly entered correction territory, while the pullback in the benchmark S&P 500 had it knocking on the door of a double-digit decline. This reversal of fortune has some investors pondering whether a stock market crash will take shape under President Trump.



While nothing can be answered with concrete certainty, one catalyst strongly suggests the likelihood of an elevator-down move for stocks has notably increased.

Entering 2026, arguably the biggest headwind for Wall Street was the historical priciness of the stock market. The S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio was above 40, and the only two previous occurrences of a Shiller P/E above 40 were followed by losses of 49% (the dot-com bubble) and 25% (the 2022 bear market) on a peak-to-trough basis in Wall Street's benchmark index.



In other words, history has shown that extended valuations aren't well tolerated by investors over the long term. But a catalyst was missing that could send the stock market over its tipping point. Thanks to the Iran war, this catalyst is front and center.

Shortly after military operations began against Iran on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz was closed to virtually all oil exports. This disrupted approximately 20% of the world's daily liquid petroleum demand and sent crude oil prices skyrocketing to the heavens.



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