Rob Isbitts
2026年4月2日（星期四）美東時間上午10:58

市場在三月三十一日（星期二）曾有一次盛會。NASDAQ 100 ETF（簡稱 QQQ）上漲3.8%，隔天（星期三）再續上漲。正如下圖所示，QQQ 的價格已回升至上週末最後一次交易的水準，這讓人不禁思考：在歷史上最受歆 spit 熱的ETF中，單日漲幅3%通常預示什麼？

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As investors, we have to recognize that there are both historical facts and our interpretations of that history. In my case, the latter led me to instantly consider a 3% QQQ move in a single trading day to be much more symptomatic of a bear market than a bull market. But we are in neither right now.

QQQ fell about 10% before rallying for a couple of days. However, it should be noted that after a 10% decline in any investment, making back 5%, as QQQ roughly had done as of late Wednesday, is not the same as a regular 5% gain. To make this clear, think of it this way: for every $100 you had in QQQ, it dropped to $90. If you then make 5%, 5% on the remaining $90 is $4.50, not $5. A small difference, unless you add a bunch of zeroes!

So, have we found a floor? Is QQQ about to provide an early resurrection we can all marvel at? Or, is it bound for yet another technical pattern known as a “death cross?”

While a 3% single-day gain feels like a recovery, historical context suggests these massive swings are often a hallmark of a downtrend rather than the start of a sustained bull run. This is caused by high-stress market environments, which produce large moves in both directions.

The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) tells the story of a stock market which has been settled until recently. Yet unsettled at the same time. Because after several months of small gyrations leading to zero return, the market made its move. Downward. But then, the bounce.

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I compiled this table to see if my memory served correctly. I went back to the start of 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic. To me, that is when the modern era of investing started. And thus, any history prior to that is, to me, less relevant. Markets did not function as they do now prior to 2020.

It wasn’t COVID-19 per se, but the dramatic increase since that time in indexed S&P 500 ($SPX) investing and algorithmic trading, and the increased presence of retail traders. All of this gathered significant momentum during that crisis, but really accelerated in the aftermath. And it continues today.

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