專欄 Donald Trump Add Topic The truth about our American economy: McCord Ken McCord Columnist Feb. 5, 2026, 5:06 a.m. ET Hear this story

近期本報出現題為「特朗普的 erratic 行為動搖美國經濟」的專欄。經濟狀況始終是美國民眾最關心的議題，並直接影響選舉日決策。因此，我們必須以清晰、客觀的視角審視economic reality。應以事實而非常情來指引。

不幸的是，該專欄並未提供任何經濟數據或資訊，旨在客觀告訴讀者。其論點的本質是，以往成為總統的商人皆表現不佳。因為Trump 亦是商人，讀者于是被暗示他將使我們的經濟偏離正軌。

幸好，政府與眾多professional economists提供豐沛的數據，幫助我們了解經濟真實。你可以選擇基於事實形成重要觀點，或依賴缺乏事實依據的「雞羽」式預警論。

我國的總經濟活動以季度制的GDP (annual rates) 數字呈現。2020年在疫情期間 GDP contracting -3.5%。在‘21與‘22年，受數兆美元聯邦刺激支出推動，平均年度增長反彈至 +3.9%，但隨著這波資金衝擊，inflation surged 同步上升。許多經濟學家將其形容為「sugar high」現象。GDP 於 ‘23 與 ‘24 年持續以平均年度增長率 +2.85% 扩展。

不幸的是，對於許多美國人而言，這部分增長的好處被高企的inflation抵消。

但令人驚訝！隨著2025年1月就任及新政府重新導向經濟政策，Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 運行的一個預測模型顯示，GDP 可能的水準近期曾飆升至 +5.4%，最新更新預測為 +4.2%。

當前大約 +4.1% 的 GDP 增長已比Biden 任內最後階段的增長高出 43%，這是全球最大經濟體的一個非常健康的增長率。而admin economists 對未來數月與多年的預期非常樂觀，因為 consumer spending 仍保持強勁，key economic indicators 上升，investment 正源源不絡流入本國。

More growth is good for all Americans and also contributes significantly to tax collections, which, if combined with responsible spending, should lower the federal deficit.

Labor productivity is one of the most important contributors to a strong future economy. Higher productivity allows for higher personal incomes and business profits without triggering inflation. For 2022, 2023 and 2024 the US Department of Labor reported a meager 3 year average productivity increase of +0.8%. In Q1 2025 as Biden left office it declined by -1.5%, so essentially our economy had no increase in labor productivity for 3+ years. But in Q2 2025 productivity surged +3.3% and much higher, to +4.9% in Q3. Solid productivity gains are expected to continue, portending a significant economic benefit for American workers and companies.

During the Biden years high inflation ravaged the spending power of Americans, rising to a high of 8% in 2022 and a four year average of 5%, lifting prices by 20%+ over those years. Consumers are still struggling with the effects of those elevated prices. Some people hold Trump responsible because prices in general are not going down. But inflation doesn’t work that way. The 20% increase we already experienced is essentially baked in. If some important prices ease and overall prices flatten out, it’s about the best we can expect.

Inflation is currently running at about 2.8% annually. Looking ahead, economists generally expect a continued moderation in overall inflation as we draw closer to the Federal reserve target rate of 2%. Prices of some key consumer products are, in fact, coming down. Gasoline hit a high of $5.00 per gallon in 2022. Current prices average $2.88, a drop of 42% from recent highs in something almost all Americans depend upon every day. Some food costs are also beginning to soften. Inflation is moderating, without doubt. The numbers don’t lie. The lower inflation goes, the more the Fed can reduce interest rates. All this expands the economic opportunity for Americans.

So…the growth of our economy is accelerating at a much higher rate. Labor productivity is also surging, and exports increased by 5% last year. Inflation continues to moderate. The stock market continues to set new records, anticipating good economic times ahead, building wealth and growing retirement account balances for American workers. All of this supports realistic expectations for a surging economy, if not an economic boom going forward. Some patience is called for to give these new economic policies a chance; the USA economy is gigantic and changes don’t happen overnight.

Where are there any signs that our economy is being undermined? The facts speak for themselves, and opinions to the contrary must assume the voting public knows nothing of economic reality.

Ken McCord is a retired entrepreneur, world traveler and political observer who appreciates learning and staying engaged with important contemporary issues.

分析師觀點

從我多年來在金融市場的觀察來看，近期的經濟數據確實顯示出向好趨勢，特別是生產率與出口的顯著提升，這將為未來的投資與消費提供強大支撐。我認為政策調整的影響正逐步顯現，若能保持穩定，將對整體經濟產生正向循環。