Renaissance Technologies is the most profitable hedge fund in history.
文藝復興科技是歷史上最賺錢的對沖基金。
00:05
This is probably the single most successful hedge fund in the history of the industry in terms of its performance record.
這可能是業界歷史上績效紀錄最成功的對沖基金。
00:14
So you got to remember he charges a lot, but before fees, 66% on average since 1988.
你要記住，他收費很高，但在扣除費用前，自1988年以來平均年化報酬率為66%。
00:22
Buying the firm's wild success are a series of mathematical models and powerful computers.
該公司驚人的成功歸功於一系列數學模型和強大的電腦。
00:29
The quantitative models at Renaissance Technologies are constantly being updated, but what's more important than those models are the ways and methods that are used to discover trading signals.
文藝復興科技的量化模型不斷更新，但比這些模型更重要的，是用來發現交易訊號的方法和途徑。
00:50
Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, is a legendary mathematician.
文藝復興科技的創辦人吉姆·西蒙斯是一位傳奇數學家。
00:56
He pioneered a unique way of research and model building to the world of hedge funds.
他開創了一種獨特的研究和模型建構方法，應用於對沖基金領域。
01:02
He's worth $21 billion, making him the highest earning hedge fund manager in the world.
他身價210億美元，成為全球收入最高的對沖基金經理人。
01:09
Born and raised in Brookline, Massachusetts, Jim Simons always knew that he wanted to be a mathematician.
吉姆·西蒙斯在馬薩諸塞州布魯克萊恩出生和長大，他總知道自己想成為一名數學家。
01:16
We used to go to an adult contestant late at night when I was a student.
我當學生時，曾在深夜去過一個成人比賽節目。
01:23
And one day I saw Ambrose and Singer come in late at night and they were obviously doing mathematics.
有天深夜，我看到安布羅斯和辛格進來，他們顯然在研究數學。
01:33
And I saw this on a number of occasions and I thought, boy, that's the greatest job in the world when you can just hang out or hang out or do mathematics.
我多次看到這種情況，心想，哇，這是世界上最棒的工作，你可以隨時研究數學。
01:47
Simons enrolled at MIT and even skipped the first year of mathematics thanks to advanced policemen courses he took in high school.
西蒙斯就讀麻省理工學院，甚至因為高中時修過進階課程，而跳過大一的數學課程。
01:56
Simons' academic career was very smooth, and after earning his PhD, he quickly became a professor of math and also took a job as a Cold War co-breaker.
西蒙斯的學術生涯非常順利，取得博士學位後，他迅速成為數學教授，並兼任冷戰時期的密碼破譯員。
02:06
But he yearns for more, particularly more money.
但他渴望更多，特別是更多的錢。
02:11
Growing up in a middle-class family, Simons always wanted to get rich.
在中產階級家庭長大，西蒙斯總想致富。
02:17
Unlike other people in the academics who don't really care about money, Simons, on the other hand, knew exactly how to make money.
不像其他學術界人士不在乎錢，西蒙斯恰恰相反，他清楚知道如何賺錢。
02:25
Start businesses.
創業。
02:27
While still at school, he started a business with his South American classmates.
還在學校時，他就與南美同學一起創業。
02:32
They decided to start a factory to produce vinyl floor tile and PVC piping.
他們決定開設一家工廠，生產塑膠地磚和PVC管道。
02:38
Well, I met some, I made friends at MIT with two Columbian boys, and they, at a certain point, started a business.
我認識了一些人，在麻省理工學院與兩位哥倫比亞男孩成為朋友，他們在某個時點開始創業。
02:49
And in fact, it was my encouragement that they started that business.
事實上，是我的鼓勵讓他們開始了那項事業。
02:53
And my father and I invested a small amount in that business, which turned out...
我父親和我投資了一小筆資金在這項事業上，結果...
03:01
eventually, to be a big success.
最後，這項事業大獲成功。
03:04
This is a story of Jim Simons that a lot of people don't hear about.
這是許多人沒聽過的吉姆·西蒙斯的故事。
03:08
So he took some time off to run the business at first, but as soon as the business takes up, he immediately delegated responsibilities to other people.
最初他花了一些時間經營這項事業，但一旦事業步上軌道，他立刻將責任委託給其他人。
03:16
We saw that time and time again with the story of Rentag.
我們在 Rentag 的故事中一再看到這種情況。
03:20
But Simons had to focus on his academic career.
但西蒙斯必須專注於他的學術生涯。
03:23
In 1976, at the age of 37, Simons was awarded the American Mathematical Society's Oswald Viblin Prize in Geometry.
1976 年，37 歲的西蒙斯獲得了美國數學學會的奧斯瓦爾德·維布倫幾何學獎。
03:33
This prize is the highest you can get in mathematics.
這個獎是數學領域的最高榮譽。
03:37
It's the equivalence of Nobel Prize.
它相當於諾貝爾獎。
03:41
Conquering one summit, Simons was looking for a new mountain to climb.
征服了一個高峰後，西蒙斯開始尋找新的山峰去攀登。
03:44
In 1974, the four tile company Simons had started with his friends sold a 50% stake, delivering profits to Simons and other owners.
1974 年，西蒙斯與朋友創辦的四瓷磚公司出售了 50% 的股份，為西蒙斯和其他股東帶來了利潤。
03:56
Simons and his classmates made a lot of money from this business.
西蒙斯和他的同學從這項事業中賺了很多錢。
04:00
He said, let's invest in the money.
他說，讓我們投資這些錢。
04:02
So Simons knew a student of his who was running a hedge fund by the name of Charlie Fretfeld.
西蒙斯認識一位名叫查理·弗雷特費爾德的學生，他經營著一家對沖基金。
04:07
Supercheting Simons' wildest expectations, he tent X, their original investment, making them $6 million total.
超出西蒙斯最狂野的期望，他們的原始投資增值了十倍，總共賺了 600 萬美元。
04:16
This is a moment Simons realizes the best way to make money is with finance.
這一刻，西蒙斯意識到賺錢的最佳方式是金融。
04:22
He was wondering, can I do the same?
他思考著，我能做到同樣的事嗎？
04:25
In 1978, Simons left academia to start his own investment firm with the money he saved and from his friends.
1978 年，西蒙斯離開學術界，用他儲蓄的錢和朋友的資金創辦了自己的投資公司。
04:33
He started Money Metrics.
他創辦了 Money Metrics。
04:40
For years after starting Money Metrics, Simons relied on intuition and fundamentals to trade.
創辦 Money Metrics 後的多年裡，西蒙斯依靠直覺和基本面進行交易。
04:46
It was a great time to be in finance.
那時是金融領域的黃金時期。
04:49
The fun is doing so well. He didn't really have to change his approach.
交易表現非常好，他其實不需要改變自己的方法。
04:53
But in the Becca's mind, he was wondering, can he use the mathematics to model asset prices?
但在貝卡的想法中，他思考著，能否用數學來建立資產價格模型？
05:00
But Simons was getting tired of the fundamental trading.
但西蒙斯逐漸對基本面交易感到厭倦。
05:03
We did very well. But it was a gut-wrenching experience.
我們表現得很好，但這是一段令人焦慮的經歷。
05:07
You know, one day you walk in and you think you're a genius, calm, my positions are my way, look up.
你知道，有時你走進來覺得自己是天才，冷靜，我的倉位正朝我的方向發展，看起來不錯。
05:14
And the next day you walk in and they're against you and you feel here, you're a dope how could I have done what I did and so on.
而第二天你走進來，市場卻對你不利，你覺得自己像個笨蛋，怎麼會做出那樣的決定等等。
05:20
There was no rhyme or reason, it was just, you know, you put your finger in the air and you try to sense which way the wind is blowing.
這一切沒有邏輯可言，只是憑著感覺，像是把手指放在空中，試圖感受風向。
05:27
Simons quickly started working on his first model with the help of his colleague, Lenny Baum.
西蒙斯很快在同事倫尼·鮑姆的幫助下，開始開發他的第一個模型。
05:33
They built a simple mean reversion model.
他們建立了一個簡單的均值回歸模型。
05:36
Buy currencies if they moved a certain level below their recent trend line and sell if they veered too far above it.
如果貨幣價格下跌到近期趨勢線以下的某個水平，就買入；如果上漲過高，就賣出。
05:44
The idea of mean reversion is very simple.
均值回歸的概念非常簡單。
05:47
Suppose you're a farmer and the average price of corn is $5 a bushel.
假設你是一個農民，玉米的平均價格是每蒲式耳 5 美元。
05:53
Now some days and maybe $6 a bushel, other days and maybe $3 a bushel.
有時可能是 6 美元一蒲式耳，有時可能是 3 美元一蒲式耳。
05:58
But in the long run, these prices will revert back to the mean value.
但從長遠來看，這些價格會回歸到平均值。
06:03
This is what's called mean reversion. Back in the 80s, many commodities were priced like this.
這就是所謂的均值回歸。在 80 年代，許多商品的定價方式就是如此。
06:09
Now, his model would not work today, but back in the 80s, this was a revolutionary idea.
現在，他的模型在今天可能行不通，但在 80 年代，這是一個革命性的想法。
06:16
They quickly expanded the strategy beyond currency trading.
他們很快將這一策略擴展到貨幣交易之外。
06:20
By 1982, he changed a company's name to Renaissance Technologies.
到1982年，他將一家公司的名稱改為文藝復興科技。
06:26
But soon enough, their simple mean reversion strategy started to fail.
但很快，他們簡單的均值回歸策略開始失效。
06:29
Simple mean reversion is not sufficient anymore as other competitors started to build their models.
由於其他競爭對手開始建立自己的模型，簡單的均值回歸已不再足夠。
06:36
To stay ahead of the game, Simons had to hire more talents.
為了保持領先地位，西蒙斯不得不聘請更多的人才。
06:40
This is what really separates Gint Simons apart from other hedge fund managers.
這正是讓金特·西蒙斯與其他對沖基金經理不同的地方。
06:44
When he sees a problem, he knows exactly who will be able to solve it.
當他看到問題時，他知道誰能解決它。
06:51
He immediately brought another renowned mathematician, Jim Axe, to develop a new strategy.
他立即邀請另一位著名數學家吉姆·艾克斯來開發新的策略。
06:58
When Jim Axe looked at those asset prices, he noticed that it is a stochastic process, which is also called a random process.
當吉姆·艾克斯觀察這些資產價格時，他注意到這是一個隨機過程，也就是所謂的隨機過程。
07:08
And he believed that using mathematical representation is the best way to model those stochastic process.
他相信，使用數學表達是建模這些隨機過程的最佳方式。
07:15
When people hear about the word random, they think that it's not predictable.
當人們聽到「隨機」這個詞時，他們認為這是不可預測的。
07:18
But that's not the case in mathematics.
但在數學中並非如此。
07:21
Suppose you throw a dice and you know each side will come up with a probability.
假設你擲骰子，你知道每一面出現的概率。
07:27
And you can bet on those probabilities.
你可以根據這些概率下注。
07:30
To model a stochastic process, they started using machine learning.
為了建模隨機過程，他們開始使用機器學習。
07:35
Machine learning is such a buzzword today.
機器學習在今天是一個熱門詞彙。
07:38
But in the 1980s, most of hedge fund managers don't even know what that means.
但在1980年代，大多數對沖基金經理甚至不知道這意味著什麼。
07:43
And they still use their gut to trade.
他們仍然依靠直覺進行交易。
07:46
But here's the Renaissance Technologies.
但文藝復興科技卻不同。
07:47
Ahead of everybody else, already started to use machine learning.
超前於所有人，他們已經開始使用機器學習。
07:52
The style of machine learning, the rent that used was the kernel method.
他們使用的機器學習風格是核心方法。
07:55
The kernel used a class of algorithms to do pattern analysis.
核心使用了一類演算法來進行模式分析。
07:59
The main tool used in academic finance is linear regression.
學術金融中使用的主要工具是線性迴歸。
08:03
To this day, linear regression is used to build forecasting models.
直到今天，線性迴歸仍被用於建立預測模型。
08:08
But the problem is the movement of asset prices is non-linear.
但問題在於資產價格的變動是非線性的。
08:12
So rather than use linear regression, a rent tech decided to build non-linear models to predict price movements.
因此，租金科技決定建立非線性模型來預測價格變動，而不是使用線性迴歸。
08:21
Simon's at the time was proposing building an early machine learning system.
西蒙當時正在提出建立一個早期的機器學習系統。
08:26
This model would generate predictions for various commodity prices based on complex patterns, clusters and correlations.
這個模型將根據複雜的模式、群集和相關性來生成各種商品價格的預測。
08:34
That'd be very hard for the naked eye to see.
這對肉眼來說是很難看到的。
08:37
Once again, they were so ahead of their time.
再一次，他們遠遠超前於他們的時代。
08:39
This kernel was like a black box that suggested trades that people couldn't even understand.
這個核心就像一個黑盒子，建議的交易連人們都無法理解。
08:47
When the team started testing the model, they quickly seek great returns.
當團隊開始測試這個模型時，他們很快就獲得了巨大的回報。
08:50
The firm began incorporating hard dimensional kernel regression approaches.
該公司開始採用硬維度核心迴歸方法。
08:55
Higher dimensional kernels were the best for trending models.
更高維度的核心最適合趨勢模型。
08:59
They're great at predicting how long a trend will last.
它們非常擅長預測趨勢將持續多長時間。
09:03
At this point, Simon's had put up millions to this automated trading system.
此時，西蒙已經為這個自動交易系統投入了數百萬美元。
09:07
They called it the medallion fund.
他們稱之為獎章基金。
09:09
The Simon's sought more potential improvement.
西蒙尋求更多潛在的改進。
09:12
He started investing heavily in bringing more mathematical talents.
他開始大力投資引進更多的數學人才。
09:15
With the Jim X model, rent and some technology started to combine trend following with main reversion.
通過Jim X模型，租金和一些技術開始將趨勢跟蹤與主要回歸相結合。
09:26
The model has generated about 20% annual returns, which is a great performance considering most of the hedge funds mean less than 12%.
該模型產生了約20%的年回報率，考慮到大多數對沖基金的平均回報率不到12%，這是一個很好的表現。
09:34
The Simon's wanted better.
西蒙希望表現更好。
09:36
He brought on another brilliant mathematician, Alan Berlacham.
他引進了另一位才華洋溢的數學家艾倫·貝拉查姆。
09:40
Alan Berlacham's specialty was game and information theory.
艾倫·貝拉查姆的專長是博弈論和資訊理論。
09:45
He immediately suggested to focus on shorter term trades to reduce risk by going in and out quickly.
他立即建議專注於短期交易，通過快速進出來降低風險。
09:51
Simon's took his advice and started focusing on shorter term approach.
西蒙採納了他的建議，開始專注於短期交易方法。
09:56
They do a very different approach.
他們採用了截然不同的方法。
09:58
It's all patterns, it's all short term.
全都是模式，全都是短期交易。
10:00
It's not high frequency, but it's something very distinct from what everybody else is doing.
雖然不是高頻交易，但與其他人所做的完全不同。
10:04
Now, Berlacham became fully in charge of the medallion fund.
現在，貝拉查姆全面負責獎章基金。
10:07
He started fully implementing his ideas.
他開始全面實施自己的想法。
10:10
He argued they should learn to handle trades like casinos.
他主張他們應該學習如何像賭場一樣處理交易。
10:14
A casino doesn't care about any particular bet.
賭場不在乎任何單一賭注。
10:17
Even if you win like 10 times, a casino is happy because it knows that in the long run, the casino has the statistical advantage.
即使你贏了十次，賭場也很高興，因為它知道從長遠來看，賭場擁有統計優勢。
10:27
This is what's called the law of large numbers.
這就是所謂的大數定律。
10:30
I think what the rent tech adopted was the Kelly criteria.
我認為租金科技採用的是凱利準則。
10:35
This is what we call the scientific gambling method.
這就是我們所謂的科學賭博方法。
10:40
To put it simply, your bet should be proportional to how confidence you are in your bet.
簡單來說，你的賭注應該與你對賭注的信心成正比。
10:47
The formula is your expected net winnings divided by your net winnings if you win.
公式是你的預期淨收益除以你贏時的淨收益。
10:54
I think this is actually the secret sauce for rent and some technologies.
我認為這實際上是租金和某些科技公司的秘密武器。
10:57
They utilize massive compute power combined with the scientific approach and to discover trading patterns and validate them and trade based on them.
他們利用大規模的計算能力，結合科學方法，來發現交易模式並驗證它們，然後基於這些模式進行交易。
11:11
They keep collecting the patterns and anomalies, and that's how they stay ahead of the game.
他們不斷收集模式和異常現象，這就是他們保持領先的方式。
11:18
Well, any one anomaly might be a random thing.
好的，任何一個異常現象可能都是隨機的。
11:21
However, if you have enough data, you can tell that it's not.
然而，如果你有足夠的數據，你可以判斷它不是隨機的。
11:24
So you can see an anomaly that's persisted for sufficiently long times, the probability of it being random is not high.
因此，你可以看到一個持續足夠長時間的異常現象，其隨機的概率不高。
11:34
But these things fade after a while, anomalies can get washed out, so you have to keep on top of the business.
但這些現象一段時間後會消退，異常現象可能會被沖淡，因此你必須時刻關注業務。
11:42
The firm implemented a new approach in late 1989 with a $27 million Simons have put up.
該公司在1989年底實施了一種新方法，西蒙斯投入了2700萬美元。
11:49
The results were almost immediate and startling.
成果幾乎是立即且驚人的。
11:52
They did more trading than ever, cutting Medallion's average holding time to just a day and a half, and from a week and a half, scoring profits almost every day.
The Medallion scored again of 55.9% in 1990. The incredible streak has begun.
Medallion在1990年再次取得了55.9%的回報。這令人難以置信的連勝開始了。
12:15
Simons' personal wealth soared. He's never hesitant to pay his employee a lot of money.
西蒙斯的個人財富暴漲。他從不吝嗇向員工支付高薪。
12:20
So, Jim Simons bought a yacht.
於是，吉姆·西蒙斯買了一艘遊艇。
12:22
Every year, he would bring his employees on his yacht to all the luxuries in the world you can imagine.
每年，他都會帶著員工乘坐他的遊艇，享受你能想像到的世界上所有的奢華。
12:36
Simons wanted to have more money to make real changes to the world.
西蒙斯希望擁有更多的錢來對世界產生真正的改變。
12:40
He needed to expand his touch fund business even more.
他需要進一步擴大他的對沖基金業務。
12:44
The only way to do that was getting into the equity business.
唯一的辦法就是進入股票業務。
12:48
So far, the Medallion fund has been very successful at trading commodities, but it was capped at $10 billion till this day.
迄今為止，Medallion基金在商品交易方面非常成功，但其規模被限制在100億美元。
12:56
So, when a hedge fund gets big, every trade it makes gets bigger.
因此，當一個對沖基金變得龐大時，它進行的每一筆交易也會變得更大。
13:01
So, we have a big trade like that. It takes a long time for it to execute in a market place.
因此，我們有一個這樣的大交易。在市場上執行這筆交易需要很長時間。
13:07
Suppose you're trying to buy 10 million shares of Apple.
假設你試圖購買1000萬股蘋果股票。
13:10
It's going to take a while for the market to fill that order.
市場需要一段時間來完成這筆訂單。
13:13
And by the time the orders are filled, you might not actually get the prize you originally planned.
當訂單完成時，你可能無法獲得最初計劃的價格。
13:19
And Warren Buffett is having the same problem. That's why he's saying that he's looking for elephants now, because the amount of stocks that he can have are so few nowadays.
沃倫·巴菲特也面臨同樣的問題。因此他表示現在正在尋找「大象」，因為如今能夠持有的股票數量非常有限。
13:30
They created a similar model to trade equities, but it fails to deliver great returns.
他們建立了類似的模型來交易股票，但未能帶來優異的回報。
13:36
Simons, again, knew exactly what to do.
西蒙斯再次準確知道該怎麼做。
13:38
He hired two top scientists from IBM and started tasking them with creating equity models.
他聘請了IBM的兩位頂尖科學家，並開始讓他們開發股票模型。
13:47
Peter Brown and Robert Mercer were experts in natural language processing.
彼得·布朗和羅伯特·默瑟是自然語言處理的專家。
13:52
It took them more than two years to solve this problem, while their equity models kept losing money.
他們花了兩年多的時間才解決這個問題，而他們的股票模型卻持續虧損。
13:58
They discovered the reason why the Medallion models don't perform as well is due to the execution of the trade.
他們發現，勳章模型表現不佳的原因在於交易的執行。
14:06
Their equity models were great at picking out best correctly, but they were too unrealistic with the execution of those trades, such as market impact and slippage.
他們的股票模型擅長正確選擇最佳股票，但對於交易的執行（如市場影響和滑點）過於不切實際。
14:16
So if you trade any stocks, you immediately realize that you do not get the market price all the time.
因此，如果你交易任何股票，你會立刻發現並非總能獲得市場價格。
14:22
This is the problem with the academia. So whatever paper you read, they always assume that you can get the market price.
這就是學術界的問題。無論你閱讀哪篇論文，他們總是假設你能獲得市場價格。
14:34
And if you participate in that market, you do not always get the market price.
而如果你參與市場交易，你並非總能獲得市場價格。
14:40
Brown and Mercer realized that their strategy needs to model this aspect as well, and minimize the trading cost.
布朗和默瑟意識到，他們的策略還需要建模這一面，並最小化交易成本。
14:48
Once they solve the problem, rent tech has entered into a new age.
一旦他們解決了這個問題，文藝復興科技公司進入了新時代。
14:52
Jim Simons went on a capital raise row show and expected its asset under management to the next level.
吉姆·西蒙斯開始進行資本籌集路演，並期望將其管理資產提升到新水平。
14:58
By 2000, the firm was managing $6 billion with 140 employees, and the rest is history.
到2000年，該公司管理著60億美元資產，擁有140名員工，其餘的就是歷史了。
15:09
By 2020, Simons retired from rent tech. That year, he made over $1 billion.
到2020年，西蒙斯從文藝復興科技公司退休。那一年，他賺了超過10億美元。
15:16
What really separates Jim Simons apart is his ability to hire talents and to create an environment that, as smart as people in the world, utilized the maximum potential.
