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George Soros Trading Strategy Explained
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00:00
Many hedge funds deploy strategies that seem too elusive or complicated, but regardless, how complex they seem, they must be based on the real world and its economies.
許多對沖基金採用的策略看似難以捉摸或複雜，但無論看起來多麼複雜，它們都必須基於現實世界及其經濟體。
00:12
There was this investor hated by many people, who understands the world economy in a way better than even the countries themselves.
有一位投資者被許多人討厭，他對世界經濟的理解甚至比各國自己還要透徹。
00:20
George Soros has achieved an impossible level of wealth by adhering to a set of philosophical ideas he developed.
索羅斯通過堅持他發展的一套哲學理念，達成了不可能的財富水平。
00:27
These ideas, while not yet proven by academics, are really not that hard to understand.
這些理念雖然尚未得到學術界的證實，但其實並不難理解。
00:33
In this video, we will talk about the essence of his strategy and study one of his famous trades: how he broke the Bank of England.
在這支影片中，我們將討論他的策略精髓，並研究他著名的交易之一：他是如何擊垮英格蘭銀行的。
00:42
George Soros is a short-term speculator.
索羅斯是一位短期投機者。
00:45
This means he invests more or less like a gambler.
這意味著他的投資方式多少有點像賭徒。
00:47
He makes massive, highly leveraged bets on the directions of the financial markets.
他以高槓桿的方式在金融市場的方向上下大注。
00:52
His hedge fund is known for its global macro strategy, a trading style centered around making large bets on the movements of currencies, commodity prices, stocks, bonds, and etc., all based on macroeconomic analysis.
他的對沖基金以全球宏觀策略聞名，這是一種交易風格，專注於基於宏觀經濟分析，在貨幣、商品價格、股票、債券等的走勢上下大注。
01:08
In his words, Soros says, “The objective is to anticipate economy trends whose premise is false, and step away from them before they are discredited.” He refers to this philosophy behind his trading strategy as reflexivity.
用他自己的話說，索羅斯表示：「目標是預測那些前提為假的經濟趨勢，並在它們被揭穿之前抽身。」他將這種交易策略背後的哲學稱為「反身性」。
01:24
In this view, there isn't just one reality, there are two forms of reality: one that humans can influence and the one that humans cannot.
在這種觀點中，並非只有一種現實，而是有兩種形式的現實：一種是人類可以影響的，另一種是人類無法影響的。
01:33
Soros believed that humans can never truly perceive reality, therefore their actions are always biased one way or another.
索羅斯認為，人類永遠無法真正感知現實，因此他們的行動總是帶有某種偏見。
01:41
As a result, they might take actions that cause their subjective reality to diverge from the objective reality.
因此，他們可能會採取行動，導致主觀現實與客觀現實產生偏差。
01:49
Suppose a country's real estate market is expanding.
假設一個國家的房地產市場正在擴張。
01:53
This causes people to perceive the real estate market better than it is.
這導致人們對房地產市場的感知比實際情況更樂觀。
01:57
The real estate developers build more houses, and the amount of buildings produced outpaces the amount actually needed.
房地產開發商建造更多房屋，而生產的建築數量超過了實際需求。
02:05
We then have a cycle.
於是形成了一個循環。
02:07
In his view, all economic activities have cycles.
在他的觀點中，所有經濟活動都有循環。
02:10
Soros believes that market participants' irrational behavior leads to booms and busts that present investment opportunities.
索羅斯認為，市場參與者的非理性行為導致了繁榮與蕭條，這為投資機會提供了契機。
02:21
Using the same analysis in 1992, George Soros and a group of speculators broke the Bank of England by forcing the British government to pull the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.
1992年，索羅斯和一群投機者利用同樣的分析，迫使英國政府將英鎊從歐洲匯率機制中撤出，從而擊垮了英格蘭銀行。
02:32
Britain entered the ERM with the hopes of keeping its currency above 2.7 German marks to the pound.
英國加入匯率機制（ERM）時，希望將其貨幣匯率維持在1英鎊兌2.7德國馬克以上。
02:40
This was fundamentally unsound, mainly due to the fact that Britain's inflation rate was many times that of Germany's.
這基本上是不合理的，主要是因為英國的通膨率是德國的數倍。
02:47
You can think of it as the amount of cash added to Britain's economy being faster than that of Germany's.
你可以想像成英國經濟中增加的現金量比德國快。
02:53
By forcing the rate to be 2.7, in retrospect, it's obviously a bad idea.
回顧過去，強制匯率維持在2.7顯然是個壞主意。
02:58
When the British government decided to raise interest rates in order to stop the pressure on sterling, I said to my partner, “Now this is the wrong policy for the British government
當英國政府決定提高利率以阻止英鎊承壓時，我對我的合夥人說：「現在英國政府的這項政策在長期來看是錯誤的。
03:17
in the long term.
他們無法維持這種狀況。
03:19
They cannot sustain this.
因此，你可以無限量地拋售英鎊，因為這種匯率無法維持。」於是，我說：「直搗要害，一擊致命。」
03:21
Therefore, you can sell any amount of sterling because it cannot be maintained.” So, I said, “Go for the jugular, go for the kill.” In the early 90s, Britain's economy was in recession.
在90年代初，英國經濟陷入衰退。
03:41
As a result, they had to print more money to stimulate its economy.
因此，他們不得不印鈔來刺激經濟。
03:45
This will inevitably cause the currency to depreciate.
這必然會導致貨幣貶值。
03:48
However, the British Prime Minister at that time, John Major, kept insisting on keeping the sterling's position in the EU.
然而，當時的英國首相約翰·梅傑堅持維持英鎊在歐盟中的地位。
03:55
But to sort of state that, it was just a matter of time before the fundamentals of economics took hold and forced them to depreciate the sterling.
但從經濟基本面來看，只是時間問題，經濟規律終將發揮作用，迫使英鎊貶值。
04:03
He started to sell short the pounds.
他開始大量拋售英鎊。
04:07
This caused the exchange rate of the pound to depreciate violently.
這導致英鎊匯率暴跌。
04:11
As a counter-measure, the British government even used almost $26 billion of currency reserve to prevent that from happening.
作為反制措施，英國政府甚至動用了近260億美元的外匯儲備來阻止這一情況。
04:19
Yet, they couldn't stop the pounds from depreciating against many currencies.
然而，他們無法阻止英鎊對多種貨幣的貶值。
04:23
Consequently, the British government gave in and withdrew from the ERM once it became clear that it was losing billions of dollars.
因此，英國政府屈服並退出了匯率機制（ERM），因為顯然他們正在損失數十億美元。
04:32
I was only one of many market participants that were selling sterling.
我只是眾多拋售英鎊的市場參與者之一。
04:39
So I did not really break the Bank of England because if there weren't so many other people doing it, it would never have happened.
因此，我並沒有真正擊垮英格蘭銀行，因為如果沒有那麼多人這麼做，這種情況永遠不會發生。
04:48
I just became identified as the embodiment of the financial markets.
我只是被視為金融市場的象徵。
04:57
So I made over $1 billion from this trade.
因此，我從這筆交易中賺了超過10億美元。
05:00
This is equivalent to taking 12.5 pounds from every UK citizen at the time.
這相當於當時從每位英國公民身上拿走12.5英鎊。
05:06
Global macro strategy is hard for average investors to follow.
全球宏觀策略對一般投資者來說難以跟隨。
05:10
But it doesn't mean that we can't learn from it, as I was always speculating on certain financial assets.
但這並不意味著我們不能從中學習，因為我總是對某些金融資產進行投機。
05:15
Like countries, companies often exhibit irrational behaviors, for example, taking on more loans to fund risky projects.
就像國家一樣，公司經常表現出非理性行為，例如借更多貸款來資助高風險項目。
05:22
You can then sell short the company's stocks by buying a put option.
然後你可以通過購買賣權來做空該公司的股票。
05:27
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George Soros Trading Strategy Explained

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📝 影片摘要

本單元介紹了投資大師喬治·索羅斯的交易策略及其背後的哲學理念。索羅斯以短期投機者著稱，採用高槓桿的全球宏觀策略，專注於基於宏觀經濟分析的金融市場走勢。他提出的「反身性」理論認為，市場參與者的非理性行為會導致主觀現實與客觀現實產生偏差，從而創造投資機會。影片詳細解析了索羅斯在1992年擊垮英格蘭銀行的著名交易，說明他如何利用英國經濟基本面的弱點，通過大量拋售英鎊迫使英國退出歐洲匯率機制，並從中獲利超過10億美元。此外，單元還探討了如何將全球宏觀策略的原則應用於公司層面的投資決策。

📌 重點整理

  • ✓ 索羅斯的交易策略基於「反身性」理論，認為市場參與者的行為會影響經濟現實
  • ✓ 他採用高槓桿的全球宏觀策略，專注於貨幣、商品、股票和債券等資產
  • ✓ 索羅斯的目標是預測基於錯誤前提的經濟趨勢，並在趨勢被揭穿前退出
  • ✓ 1992年，索羅斯通過大量拋售英鎊，迫使英國退出歐洲匯率機制
  • ✓ 英國高通膨率和經濟衰退使得維持固定匯率成為不可能
  • ✓ 索羅斯認為所有經濟活動都有循環，非理性行為導致繁榮與蕭條
  • ✓ 他利用市場參與者的集體行為，而不是單獨行動擊垮英格蘭銀行
  • ✓ 全球宏觀策略雖然複雜，但個人投資者可以從中學習基本原則
📖 專有名詞百科 ｜點擊詞彙查看維基百科解釋
投機者
speculator
槓桿的
leveraged
反身性
reflexivity
貶值
depreciate
通貨膨脹
inflation
經濟衰退
recession
基本面
fundamentals
投機
speculating
體現
embodiment
刺激
stimulate

🔍 自訂查詢

📚 共 10 個重點單字
speculator /ˈspɛkjəleɪtər/ noun
a person who invests in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss
投機者；冒險投資者
📝 例句
"George Soros is a short-term speculator."
→ 喬治·索羅斯是一位短期投機者。
✨ 延伸例句
"The stock market attracts many speculators looking for quick profits."
→ 股票市場吸引了許多尋求快速獲利的投機者。
leveraged /ˈlɛvərɪdʒd/ adjective
using borrowed money to increase the potential return of an investment
槓桿的；使用舉債的
📝 例句
"He makes massive, highly leveraged bets on the directions of the financial markets."
→ 他在金融市場的方向上下高槓桿的大注。
✨ 延伸例句
"Leveraged buyouts can be risky but potentially very profitable."
→ 槓桿收購可能有風險，但潛在獲利豐厚。
reflexivity /ˌriːflɛkˈsɪvəti/ noun
the idea that market participants' actions can influence market fundamentals
反身性；反饋性
📝 例句
"He refers to this philosophy behind his trading strategy as reflexivity."
→ 他將這種交易策略背後的哲學稱為「反身性」。
✨ 延伸例句
"Reflexivity theory suggests that investor bias can shape market trends."
→ 反身性理論表明，投資者的偏見可以塑造市場趨勢。
depreciate /dɪˈpriːʃieɪt/ verb
to decrease in value over time
貶值；減值
📝 例句
"This will inevitably cause the currency to depreciate."
→ 這必然會導致貨幣貶值。
✨ 延伸例句
"The car began to depreciate as soon as it was driven off the lot."
→ 汽車一開出展示廳就開始貶值。
inflation /ɪnˈfleɪʃən/ noun
a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money
通貨膨脹
📝 例句
"Britain's inflation rate was many times that of Germany's."
→ 英國的通膨率是德國的數倍。
✨ 延伸例句
"Central banks aim to keep inflation under control."
→ 中央銀行旨在控制通貨膨脹。
recession /rɪˈsɛʃən/ noun
a period of temporary economic decline
經濟衰退
📝 例句
"In the early 90s, Britain's economy was in recession."
→ 在90年代初，英國經濟陷入衰退。
✨ 延伸例句
"Many companies struggle to survive during a recession."
→ 許多公司在經濟衰退期間難以生存。
fundamentals /ˌfʌndəˈmɛntəlz/ noun
the basic economic factors that affect the value of a currency or asset
基本面；基本因素
📝 例句
"It was just a matter of time before the fundamentals of economics took hold."
→ 只是時間問題，經濟規律終將發揮作用。
✨ 延伸例句
"Investors should always consider the fundamentals before buying stocks."
→ 投資者在購買股票前應始終考慮基本面。
speculating /ˈspɛkjəleɪtɪŋ/ verb
investing in something with the hope of gain but with risk of loss
投機；冒險投資
📝 例句
"As I was always speculating on certain financial assets."
→ 因為我總是對某些金融資產進行投機。
✨ 延伸例句
"He made a fortune by speculating on real estate."
→ 他通過房地產投機發了財。
embodiment /ɪmˈbɒdɪmənt/ noun
a tangible or visible form of an idea or quality
體現；化身
📝 例句
"I just became identified as the embodiment of the financial markets."
→ 我只是被視為金融市場的象徵。
✨ 延伸例句
"She is the embodiment of professionalism."
→ 她是專業精神的化身。
stimulate /ˈstɪmjuleɪt/ verb
to encourage economic activity
刺激；激勵
📝 例句
"They had to print more money to stimulate its economy."
→ 他們不得不印鈔來刺激經濟。
✨ 延伸例句
"The government cut taxes to stimulate growth."
→ 政府減稅以刺激經濟增長。
🎯 共 10 題測驗

1 What trading style is George Soros' hedge fund known for? 喬治·索羅斯的對沖基金以何種交易風格聞名？ What trading style is George Soros' hedge fund known for?

喬治·索羅斯的對沖基金以何種交易風格聞名？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video states that Soros' hedge fund is known for its global macro strategy, which involves making large bets based on macroeconomic analysis.

影片指出，索羅斯的對沖基金以全球宏觀策略聞名，這種策略基於宏觀經濟分析進行大額投資。

2 What philosophy does Soros use to describe his trading strategy? 索羅斯用哪個哲學理念來描述他的交易策略？ What philosophy does Soros use to describe his trading strategy?

索羅斯用哪個哲學理念來描述他的交易策略？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

Soros refers to his trading philosophy as 'reflexivity,' which involves the interaction between market participants' perceptions and economic fundamentals.

索羅斯將他的交易哲學稱為「反身性」，這涉及市場參與者的感知與經濟基本面之間的互動。

3 What was the main economic issue that made Britain's ERM position unsustainable? 英國在歐洲匯率機制中的立場為何無法維持的主要經濟問題是什麼？ What was the main economic issue that made Britain's ERM position unsustainable?

英國在歐洲匯率機制中的立場為何無法維持的主要經濟問題是什麼？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video explains that Britain's inflation rate was many times higher than Germany's, making the fixed exchange rate unsustainable.

影片解釋說，英國的通膨率遠高於德國，使得固定匯率無法維持。

4 What action did the British government take to try to stop the pressure on sterling? 英國政府採取了什麼行動來試圖阻止英鎊的壓力？ What action did the British government take to try to stop the pressure on sterling?

英國政府採取了什麼行動來試圖阻止英鎊的壓力？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video mentions that the British government decided to raise interest rates to stop the pressure on sterling.

影片提到，英國政府決定提高利率來阻止英鎊的壓力。

5 How much did Soros make from his famous trade against the British pound? 索羅斯從他著名的對抗英鎊的交易中賺了多少錢？ How much did Soros make from his famous trade against the British pound?

索羅斯從他著名的對抗英鎊的交易中賺了多少錢？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

Soros states in the video that he made over $1 billion from this trade.

索羅斯在影片中表示，他從這筆交易中賺了超過10億美元。

6 What does Soros believe about market participants' behavior? 索羅斯對市場參與者的行為有何看法？ What does Soros believe about market participants' behavior?

索羅斯對市場參與者的行為有何看法？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

Soros believes that market participants' irrational behavior leads to economic cycles of booms and busts.

索羅斯認為，市場參與者的非理性行為會導致經濟的繁榮與蕭條循環。

7 What was the fixed exchange rate Britain tried to maintain in the ERM? 英國在歐洲匯率機制中試圖維持的固定匯率是多少？ What was the fixed exchange rate Britain tried to maintain in the ERM?

英國在歐洲匯率機制中試圖維持的固定匯率是多少？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video specifies that Britain tried to keep its currency above 2.7 German marks to the pound.

影片明確指出，英國試圖將其貨幣匯率維持在1英鎊兌2.7德國馬克以上。

8 What does Soros mean by 'go for the jugular' in his trading strategy? 索羅斯在交易策略中「直搗要害」是什麼意思？ What does Soros mean by 'go for the jugular' in his trading strategy?

索羅斯在交易策略中「直搗要害」是什麼意思？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The phrase 'go for the jugular' means to attack decisively and aggressively, which aligns with Soros' strategy of making large, confident bets.

「直搗要害」意味著果斷且積極地攻擊，這與索羅斯大膽下注的策略一致。

9 What financial instrument could be used to short a company's stock according to the video? 根據影片，可以使用哪種金融工具來做空公司的股票？ What financial instrument could be used to short a company's stock according to the video?

根據影片，可以使用哪種金融工具來做空公司的股票？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 B

The video suggests buying put options as a way to short a company's stock.

影片建議通過購買賣權來做空公司的股票。

10 Why did Soros believe the British government's policy was unsustainable in the long term? 索羅斯為何認為英國政府的政策在長期內無法維持？ Why did Soros believe the British government's policy was unsustainable in the long term?

索羅斯為何認為英國政府的政策在長期內無法維持？

✅ 正確！ ❌ 錯誤，正確答案是 D

Soros believed the policy was unsustainable due to Britain's recession, the inability to maintain high interest rates, and the overvaluation of the pound.

索羅斯認為該政策無法維持，因為英國經濟衰退、無法維持高利率，以及英鎊被高估。

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