Marvell Technology（MRVL）在 FY2026 第四季報告中營收達 22.20 億美元，較去年同期成長 22%。 this growth was driven primarily by the Data Center business, as expected. The company highlighted that its custom AI XPU design activity is at an all-time high, with more than 50 opportunities across more than 10 customers. Wall Street analysts have issued 24 Buy ratings and zero Sell ratings on the stock, reflecting strong market confidence.

Marvell’s stock has risen 130% year‑to‑date through May 22, 2026, and 225% over the past year. It is currently trading at a forward P/E of 51×. NVIDIA (NVDA) has validated Marvell’s chiplet approach through an NVLink Fusion partnership, underscoring the strategic significance of its custom silicon strategy.

The path to a $300 per‑share valuation hinges on scaling custom XPU revenue into fiscal 2027, multiple expansion justified by approximately 40% annual revenue growth, and the broader data‑center equipment sector, which is projected to grow at roughly 25% annually for the next four to five years.

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Marvell designs custom silicon and networking chips for hyperscaler data centers. Its portfolio spans custom AI XPUs, electro‑optics, PAM DSPs, and DCI modules, and the company pays a small $0.06 quarterly dividend—an oddity for a stock that is behaving like a pure AI growth play. CEO Matt Murphy has spent the past year telling investors that AI now represents the majority of data‑center revenue, and that custom AI design activity sits at an all‑time high with over 50 opportunities across more than 10 customers.

MRVL is up 130% year‑to‑date through May 22, 2026, and 225% over the past year. Bull‑case analyses from Forbes and Trefis sketch a path to $400. A more modest stretch target of $300 in 2026 is worth testing.

The consensus price target stands at $177, well below the current price. Even the highest Wall Street price target reaches $300. This gap signals that many estimates are lagging, but most analysts are not urging investors to sell. There are zero Sell ratings and 24 Buy ratings against just four Hold ratings.

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Marvell also reported Q4 FY2026 financial results with $2.22 billion of revenue, up 22% year over year. The growth came from the Data Center business, as expected. I would expect this revenue growth to accelerate if hyperscalers stick to their guns and keep spending more on data centers.

MRVL trades at a forward P/E of 51× on roughly $3.85 in FY2027 EPS. This is quite expensive when you compare it to most other AI hardware stocks, but it's mostly because the fiscal period ends in January. When you look at FY2028 earnings (ends in January 2028), you're paying some 35 times that amount.

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If custom XPU ramps and operating leverage push FY27 EPS toward $4.00, $300 implies about 75× forward earnings. Rich, but defensible for a company growing revenue at ~40% annually.

The $400 framework requires the same EPS trajectory plus multiple expansion to roughly 100×, or substantially higher FY2027 estimates than Wall Street models. Possible if Celestial AI's optical interconnect scales and the 3‑nanometre XPU enters production in calendar 2026, but it leaves no room for disappointment.

Custom silicon ramp: Murphy called the Celestial AI deal a transformational milestone for the scale‑up interconnect roadmap.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) NVLink Fusion partnership: validates Marvell's chiplet approach for custom XPUs.

Capital return: $1.3 billion in Q3 buybacks alone shrinks share count into a rising earnings stream.

Industry tailwind: datacenter equipment growth is essentially locked in for the next four to five years at around 25% annually, per PineBridge's 2026 outlook.

MRVL has gained 331% over five years, so a further 45% advance to $300 fits the volatility profile. The $400 case assumes everything breaks right. $300 reads as ambitious‑but‑credible: it requires Wall Street estimates to catch reality, custom XPU revenue to compound into FY27, and the multiple to hold near current levels. Risks include customer concentration with data center at 73% of revenue and net insider selling across 94 recent transactions. The blueprint to $300 is on the table.

It could happen even earlier if the broader AI rally gets euphoric. Many analysts believe this AI rally is going to reach up to Dot Com levels.

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