科技巨頭
2025年12月15日
Bill Gates: AI is the biggest technical thing ever in my lifetime
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🤖 AI 重點摘要
- AI 的重要性： 比爾蓋茲認為人工智慧是他一生中最大的技術進步，其經濟價值極高，如同早期互聯網般具潛力。
- 投資風險與浪費： 儘管 AI 前景可期，但許多科技公司投入 AI 相關的晶片和數據中心，存在投資效益不明確、可能造成資源浪費的風險。
- 數據中心與能源成本： 數據中心建設面臨當地社區對電費上漲和就業機會流失的擔憂，尋找合適且具經濟及政治接受度的地點至關重要。
- 政府政策的可預測性： 比爾蓋茲強調政府政策需要具備可預測性，尤其是在涉及長期投資的工廠建設方面，避免頻繁變動影響企業決策。
- 工業政策的疑慮： 對於美國政府擬定的工業政策，例如入股晶片公司等，比爾蓋茲表示遊戲規則不明確，且可能導致政府偏袒自己擁有的公司。
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Microsoft's co-founder, Bill Gates, publishing a new essay on climate.
微軟的共同創辦人比爾茨發表了一篇關於氣候的新文章。
It's aimed at uh to deliver a message ahead of COP 30.
是為了在COP 30之前傳達一個訊息。
And he's suggesting that the climate community should shift its strategy from temperature and emission
他建議氣候界應該將其戰略從溫度和排放目標轉移到對人類生命的影響。
targets to the impact on human lives.
在一篇專訪中，我也問他是否心我們是否處於AI泡中。
In an exclusive interview on that topic, I also asked him if he is worried about
他對此的看法是：
whether we are in an AI bubble.
我們需要定義什麼是泡。
Here's what he had to say.
如果我們的意思是像荷蘭的金香一樣，最終回頭看說「到底發生了什麼事？」
We need to define bubble.
「那裡什麼都沒有，只是金香而已。」不，我們現在不是那樣。
If if what we mean is like tulips in the Netherlands that they eventually looked back and
如果你是指像網際網路泡一樣，最終發生了非常深刻的事情，世界變得非常不同。
said, "What the heck?
一些公司成功了，但很多公司都落後了，錢的公司。
There was nothing there.
對如此。
Those were just tulips." No, that's not where we are.
有很多投資最終會是死胡同。
If you mean it's like the internet bubble where in the end something very profound
你看看現在一些大科技公司的投資，一些公司尚未從AI中取利，但仍在芯片製造商和數據中心上做出巨大的承諾，說這個數學是有意義的。
happened, the world was very different.
有很多投資最終會是死胡同。
Some companies succeeded, but a lot of the companies were kind of meto fell behind uh burning capital companies.
你看看現在一些大科技公司的投資，一些公司尚未從AI中取利，但仍在芯片製造商和數據中心上做出巨大的承諾，說這個數學是有意義的。
Absolutely.
There are a ton of these investments um that will be deadends.
>> And you look at all of the investments that are being made today by some of the big tech companies, some companies who
are not making money on AI yet, but are making massive commitments to chip makers and data centers and say this
math makes sense.
>> Um the AI is the biggest technical thing ever in my lifetime.
>>嗯，人工智慧是我一生中最大的技術進步。
I mean it is so profound and therefore its influence is hard to overstate and the
我的意思是，它非常深刻，影響力很難被大，其經濟價值基本上就是智慧，你知道的，你可以獲得醫療建議或得到一個導師或有人助你設計藥物。
economic value this is basically intelligence uh you know where you can get medical advice or you can get a
所以價值非常高。
tutor or you can get somebody to help you design drugs.
就像創造互聯網最終被證明是非常有價值的一樣，但你會有一陣狂熱，知道嗎，有些公司會很高興他們花了這麼多錢。
So the value is extremely high.
有些公司，知道嗎，它們會承諾數據中心，其電費太貴，知道嗎，可以在海外完成或它們會買一代芯片，知道嗎，它們在下一代來臨之前無法捕到所有價值。
Uh just like creating the internet ended up being in net very very valuable but you have a frenzy and
但是，如果你想成為一家科技公司，你不能說不，知道嗎，你不能退出這場競爭。
you know some of these companies will be glad they spent all this money.
>> 你認為公眾對這項技術的口最終會是什麼？
Some of them, you know, they'll commit to data centers that whose electricity is too
我問這個問題是因為我認為現在有兩件事讓人心。
expensive, you know, that it could be done overseas or they'll buy a generation of chips and and you know,
一是能源成本。
they won't have captured all their value before the next uh one comes along.
所以有很多地方想建造數據中心，知道嗎，當地社區說不，我們不想要，因為我們不想為自己的家付更多的電費。
But, you know, if you want to be a tech company, you don't get to say no uh you
同時，他們心如果他們真的成功，他們也會失去工作。
know, let's check out of this race.
所以有很多地方想建造數據中心，知道嗎，當地社區說不，我們不想要，因為我們不想為自己的家付更多的電費。
>> What do you think the public appetite for this is ultimately going to be?
同時，他們心如果他們真的成功，他們也會失去工作。
And I I asked because I think there's concerns about two things that are
happening right now.
One is energy costs.
So there's a whole bunch of places where people want to put data centers and uh you know the community
says no we don't want this because we don't want to have to spend more money for power to power our own homes.
At the same time they're worried that if they actually are successful they'll also
lose their jobs.
We need to put things like terap powered nuclear reactors in places where it's very clear that you're
我們需要將像特拉帕動力核反應堆這樣的東西放在很明顯的地方，你不會因為這樣而提高居民的電費。
not raising the the residents electricity bills because that's being put in there.
因為這是被放在那裡的。
Historically, nuclear was done in a way that the utility bore a lot of that liability that that business
史上，核能是以一種方式進行的，公用事業承了很多責任，那種商業模式不會再被重複。
model won't get repeated.
所以，我們需要確保選經濟和政治接受度非常強的位置。
So we need to make sure uh to pick locations where the economics and the political acceptance
我們沒有權利提高人民的電費。
is very very strong.
，你知道，就工作而言，這需要一段時間，但是，是的，管它在未來幾年內尚未出現大量，但它將對就業市場產生一些影響。
We have we don't have permission to drive up people's electricity costs.
現在，當你說這些時，有些人會說，你怎麼能，你知道，你知道說這不是會減慢美國在這場競賽中的速度，但對於人們來說，坦率地說，這將對就業市場產生很大的影響。
Uh you know in terms of the jobs this is going to take some period of time but yes uh although it
然，茨是一位長期的資本主義者，所以我問他關於白宮提出的工業政策，包括美國在土和芯片公司中持有股份，以下是他的回答。
hasn't been seen in large numbers over the next several years there will be some impact on the job market.
政府在運作時最好是可預測的。
Nowadays when you say that some people are like oh how can you you know you know say
也就是說，你知道未來20年會有什麼關，因為當你建造一家工廠時，政府不應該每年或每天改變其政策。
that isn't that going to slow the US down in this race but it's only honest for people um to speak frankly about the
因為可預測性是一件非常重要的事情，了解公司是否在助技術進步，是為了國家的利益，還是對公司不平等對待，或者是否想要有部分公司。
fact this will have a big effect on the job market >> and of course Gates is a longtime
如果有人想要有部分公司，政府是否會對其進行補貼。
capitalist so I talked to him about the industrial policy coming from the White House including the US taking stakes in
因為可預測性是一件非常重要的事情，了解公司是否在助技術進步，是為了國家的利益，還是對公司不平等對待，或者是否想要有部分公司。
rare earth and chip companies here's what he had to The government
如果有人想要有部分公司，政府是否會對其進行補貼。
operates best when it's kind of predictable.
That is when you know what you know what are the tariffs going to be for the next 20 years because when
you build a a factory uh so the government shouldn't be changing its policy you know every year or every day
uh because you know predictability is a very very important thing understanding when the company's helping nent
technology is it um doing that for the good of the country and you know not and treating
companies equally or will it want to own part of those companies and not and if somebody has
better technology they'll favor the company they own part of we need to understand what those policies are yes I
combetter 技術後，他們會偏愛自己擁有的公司，我們需要了解這些政策是什麼。
think there's a rush of people to say wow uh you know maybe that's how to you know get to the front of the line for
我認為有些人急於說：「哇，嗯，你知道，這也許是如何，你知道，排在政府資金的前面」
government money but the rules of the game we're playing are pretty unclear right out.
但是，我們正在參與的遊戲規則卻相當不明確。
🎓
英語學習專區
透過影片掌握實用單字與理解能力
例句中文翻譯
💡 點擊按鈕切換顯示/隱藏中文翻譯
emission
/ɪˈmɪʃ.ən/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
the production and discharge of something, especially gas or radiation, from a source.
排放；釋放
📍 影片例句
"He's suggesting that the climate community should shift its strategy from temperature and emission targets to the impact on human lives."
→ 他建議氣候社群應將策略從溫度和排放目標轉向對人類生活的影響。
💡 補充例句
"Reducing carbon emissions is crucial for combating climate change."
→ 減少碳排放對於應對氣候變化至關重要。
profound
/prəˈfaʊnd/
adjective
發音比對結果
0%
very great or intense; having or showing great knowledge or insight.
深刻的；深邃的
📍 影片例句
"If you mean it's like the internet bubble where in the end something very profound happened, the world was very different."
→ 如果你指的是像互聯網泡沫一樣，最終發生了一些非常深刻的事情，世界變得截然不同。
💡 補充例句
"The philosopher's ideas had a profound impact on Western thought."
→ 這位哲學家的思想對西方思想產生了深遠的影響。
capital
/ˈkæp.ɪ.təl/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
a city functioning as a centre of government and administration.
首都
📍 影片例句
"Some companies were kind of meto fell behind uh burning capital companies."
→ 一些公司有點像落後於時代，燒錢的公司。
💡 補充例句
"The company is seeking additional capital to fund its expansion."
→ 該公司正在尋求額外資金以資助其擴張。
deadends
/ˈded.end/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
a street or passage that has only one entrance.
死胡同
📍 影片例句
"There are a ton of these investments um that will be deadends."
→ 有很多投資最終會是死路一條。
💡 補充例句
"His career seemed to have reached a dead end."
→ 他的職業生涯似乎走到了死胡同。
frenzy
/ˈfren.zi/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
an excited or agitated state.
狂熱；瘋狂
📍 影片例句
"Just like creating the internet ended up being in net very very valuable but you have a frenzy and you know some of these companies will be glad they spent all this money."
→ 就像創造互聯網最終變得非常有價值，但你會有一個狂熱，你知道這些公司中的一些會很高興他們花掉了所有的錢。
💡 補充例句
"There was a buying frenzy when the new phone was released."
→ 新手機發布時出現了購買狂熱。
liability
/ˌlaɪ.əˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
the state of being legally responsible for something.
責任；負債
📍 影片例句
"Historically, nuclear was done in a way that the utility bore a lot of that liability that that business model won't get repeated."
→ 從歷史上看，核能的實施方式是電力公司承擔了大部分責任，而這種商業模式不會重演。
💡 補充例句
"The company faced significant financial liabilities."
→ 該公司面臨著巨大的財務負債。
economics
/ˌiː.kəˈnɒm.ɪks/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
the branch of knowledge concerned with the production, consumption, and transfer of wealth.
經濟學
📍 影片例句
"So we need to make sure uh to pick locations where the economics and the political acceptance is very very strong."
→ 因此，我們需要確保選擇經濟和政治接受度都非常強大的地點。
💡 補充例句
"A strong understanding of economics is essential for business success."
→ 對經濟學的深入了解對於企業成功至關重要。
appetite
/ˈæp.ɪ.taɪt/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
a natural or acquired liking for something.
胃口；慾望
📍 影片例句
"What do you think the public appetite for this is ultimately going to be?"
→ 你認為公眾對此的胃口最終會如何？
💡 補充例句
"There is a growing public appetite for renewable energy."
→ 公眾對可再生能源的需求日益增長。
commit
/kəˈmɪt/
verb
發音比對結果
0%
pledge or bind a person or an organization to a certain course or policy.
承諾；致力
📍 影片例句
"Some of them, you know, they'll commit to data centers that whose electricity is too expensive."
→ 其中一些人會承諾建立電力成本太高的數據中心。
💡 補充例句
"The country has committed to reducing its carbon emissions."
→ 該國已承諾減少其碳排放。
predictable
/prɪˈdɪk.tə.bl̩/
adjective
發音比對結果
0%
able to be predicted.
可預測的
📍 影片例句
"That is when you know what you know what are the tariffs going to be for the next 20 years because when you build a a factory uh so the government shouldn't be changing its policy you know every year or every day because you know predictability is a very very important thing"
→ 也就是說，你知道未來 20 年的關稅會是多少，因為當你建造工廠時，政府不應該每年或每天都改變其政策，因為可預測性非常重要。
💡 補充例句
"Her behavior was surprisingly predictable."
→ 她的行為出乎意料地可預測。
tariff
/ˈtær.ɪf/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
a tax imposed on imported or exported goods.
關稅
📍 影片例句
"That is when you know what you know what are the tariffs going to be for the next 20 years because when you build a a factory uh"
→ 也就是說，你知道未來 20 年的關稅會是多少，因為當你建造工廠時
💡 補充例句
"The new tariffs will likely increase the cost of goods."
→ 新的關稅可能會增加商品成本。
incentive
/ɪnˈsen.tɪv/
noun
發音比對結果
0%
a thing that motivates or encourages one to do something.
誘因；刺激
📍 影片例句
"understanding when the company's helping nent technology is it um doing that for the good of the country and you know not and treating companies equally or will it want to own part of those companies and not and if somebody has better technology they'll favor the company they own part of we need to understand what those policies are yes I think there's a rush of people to say wow uh you know maybe that's how to you know get to the front of the line for government money but the rules of the game we're playing are pretty unclear right out."
→ 了解公司幫助的技術是否為國家利益，以及是否公平對待所有公司，或者政府是否想擁有這些公司的部分股權，如果有人擁有更好的技術，他們會偏袒他們擁有股權的公司，我們需要了解這些政策，是的，我認為很多人都在說哇，也許這就是如何獲得政府資金的捷徑，但我們正在玩遊戲的規則還不明確。
💡 補充例句
"Tax breaks are often used as an incentive for investment."
→ 減稅通常被用作投資的誘因。