中國兩會召開在即 成長目標首次降至4.5%以下 | AI 驅動的財商語言學習中心

中國兩會召開在即 成長目標首次降至4.5%以下

2026-03-04 15:12 3 次瀏覽 重要度 8/10
Dr. Macro

Dr. Macro 的深度觀點

首席經濟學家

專注於全球宏觀經濟、央行政策與債券市場分析。擁有 30 年市場經驗,擅長從數據中解讀趨勢。

中國即將於本週展開備受關注的「兩會」全程,包括已於3月4日啟動的中國人民政治協商會議及明날啟動的全國人民代表大會。這兩項年會是中國制定年度經濟目標的重要場合,過去三年來該國以「約5%」的增長率設定目標。今回的目標預計將調整至4.5%至5%之間,成為首次將增長預測下調至低於5%的年份。考慮到中國去年 GDP 超過20兆美元,即使是4.5%的增長,也將為全球經濟成長貢獻最多的實質增量。 同時,Alibaba(BABA)今年年初下跌7.5%,市值從1月高點縮減約四分之一,投資者開始質疑其能否在此水平上企稅。作為中國經濟最具代表性的企業之一,Alibaba 在2023年曾將旗下六大事業部門切割為獨立上市單位,但受到美國半導體出口限制以及市場競爭等因素影響,相關上市計畫迟迟未落實。儘 though the public often views Alibaba as an e‑commerce giant, the company actually leads China’s cloud market with a share exceeding the combined totals of the next three competitors, and it continues to develop AI businesses, becoming one of the leading AI players in the country. It has also developed AI chips and secured third‑party customers, while betting on instant commerce and food‑delivery services that are growing rapidly in China, although these businesses are currently struggling with losses amid intense competition and price wars. The Chinese government’s relationship with Alibaba and its founder Jack Ma has been love‑hate; Ma was the face of the tech crackdown between 2020 and 2021 and largely disappeared from public view after being chastised by authorities. Recently, Ma resurfaced and, in a February 2025 meeting with President Xi Jinping, pledged support for private enterprises, a move interpreted as a policy gesture of endorsement toward private firms. This development is sourced from official meeting announcements and publicly disclosed company data, indicating a high level of credibility.

Key Takeaways

  • 中國將於3月4日至5日舉行「兩會」,確定今年 GDP 增長目標在4.5%至5%之間,為首次低於5%.
  • Alibaba 股價2023年以來下跌7.5%,市值縮減約四分之一,投資者憂慮其能否企穩.
  • 會議期間將討論經濟政策與產業升級,並探索 private enterprise 支持的後續走向.
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